Jimy Williams has gone bunt crazy for the Astros. The Cardinals are on pace to post one of the best road records in history. The Rangers need sustained good pitching to stay in the race. These and other news and notes in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
As much as it annoyed me, being a Pistons fan, to see that coverage of the NBA Finals was focused far more on the Lakers’ demise (MEDVEDENKO TO TEST FREE AGENT WATERS!) as it was on Detroit’s ascent (blue team wins championship in five games), there’s a lot to be said for the presence of a villain. The Lakers have been so good for so long–so annoyingly, purple-and-goldenly good–for so long, that it was one hell of a story to see them go down to defeat, even if it came at the hands of a largely unfamiliar and anonymous team whose low-scoring style made them the basketball equivalent of the 1906 Cubs.
Lest you accuse me of some sort of Midwestern provincialism, it’s worth noting that the rest of the country agreed–the Finals were the highest-rated in years. David Stern agreed too, and it was refreshing to hear him confess, during a halftime interview, that the presence of a franchise like the Lakers was good for his league, drawing lots of eyeballs and putting lots of butts in the seats.
Now that baseball has the sports stage more or less to itself–the NHL finals concluded two weeks ago, with the Dayton (OH) Green Hornets defeating the Saskatoon Moosecatchers in a thrilling seven-game series–it’s worth considering whether a similar phenomenon manifests itself in our preferred sport.
The state of umpiring today is amazing. While umpires are devoid of the kind of personality that, say, Ron Luciano had, as a group they have improved so markedly since baseball broke their union that it’s amazing to watch old games on ESPN Classic. Umpires today are faster to get into position and more observant. They’re willing to consult other umps who might have a better view of a disputed play. They’re far more professional than their predecessors.
I am more convinced than ever that the umpires have demonstrated the need for better strike zone measurement tools. We haven’t heard much about Questec this year, due in part to Tom Glavine enjoying a bounceback year. But I watch so much baseball it frightens small children, and I see blown balls and strike calls all the time. And I don’t even mean close calls, either, I’m taking about clearly up, down, or off the plate and my favorite, Ye Olde Hit the Target Strike. Like the other parts of the umpire’s game, it’s gotten better, but it’s still not as good as it needs to be.
The other big piece missing from OBP is the fact that reached on error
(ROE) has also been excluded. If you watch enough baseball, thoughts start
to creep into your head, wondering whether certain players can “generate”
errors to get on base. The poster boy for this line of thinking is
Ichiro Suzuki (or Ichiro! if you live within 100 miles of
Derek Zumsteg). Ichiro!’s speed and batting style certainly appear to make
defenses rush, maybe bobbling a few more balls and leaving him standing on
first after a routine ground ball for anyone else. Others may argue that
there’s a case for players who hit the ball harder than others. Perhaps
they too generate errors, but instead of speed making fielders rush, it’s
the velocity of the ball forcing the error. Thus, since those ROE are the
result of some talent of the batters and not necessarily the fault of the
defense, those plate appearances, rather than being counted against OBP,
should be counted for OBP.
There are several problems with this line of thinking. First and
foremost, there’s still the inherent problem of the official scorer and his
tendencies to rule various identical events as hits or errors, depending on
other factors not relevant to the play at hand. Players who play in front
of “hometown” official scorers will have more of their borderline calls
ruled as hits than players whose scorers who hold the defense to a higher
standard.
Second, there may be a difference between infield and outfield
ROE. While there’s certainly an argument that players can generate ROE in
the outfield by hitting a plethora of nearly fieldable line drives, most of
the influence we’re searching for empirically comes from infielders and
their rush to throw out a speedy runner.
It’s been an unusual postseason in NCAA baseball this year. Until 1998, the postseason tournament began with 48 teams playing in six-team, double-elimination brackets which were played over four days. This created a lot of drama, but it didn’t create great baseball, as you frequently ended up with a freshman waterboy pitching on Sunday afternoon. Under this format, upsets were the norm, and the field that reached the College World Series in Omaha was usually a rather motley crew of survivors.
In 1999, though, the NCAA moved to a 64-team field, adding a week to the postseason and switching from six-team regionals to four-team events in the first round. Under this format, the favorites flourished. Although upsets happened often enough to keep everyone on their toes, the fields in Omaha have been stronger from 1999 to 2003. This year, however, the apple cart has been overturned.