Dear Commissioner Selig:
In the tedious run-up to the recent 75th All-Star game, I noticed you mentioned in passing to reporters that you’re open to the idea of extending your reign as commissioner beyond 2006, when your present term will expire. My hopes that you will not do this are both boundless and without bound.
Listen, I don’t think you’re evil or stupid. On the contrary, I think you’ve been remarkably competent at what you’ve set out to do. I believe, for instance, that you genuinely want to diversify major league front offices. I can quibble with how you’ve gone about doing that, but the intent is a noble one. But other than that, I believe your prevailing vision for Major League Baseball, which you’ve executed with ruthless efficiency, has been thoroughly noxious to a game I can’t seem to live without.
Sure, I’ll admit my biases. Like Michael Moore and Fox News, you know where I stand: Injuries are often the difference maker. Look back to last year, when Oakland would have been a different team with Mark Mulder. Or think of St. Louis a few years ago, when when Scott Rolen’s freak accident killed the Redbirds’ attack. There are a million other examples of games lost because of players lost. After talent, health is the most important asset a team possesses.
Instead of doing full breakdowns on each team–something time and carpal tunnel precludes–I’ll focus on the team’s overall health, as well as key injuries that help determine who holds the health advantage heading down the stretch. I’ll use a grade system, rather than my typical traffic light. The rankings are just my impressions and are purely subjective, based on past and current health, the likelihood of problematic future injuries, and the whimsical nature of my late-night muse. Teams are listed in the order they stood in their divisions at the All-Star Break.
Best Matchup (best combined adjusted third-order won-loss record with both teams being over .500): Boston @ Anaheim
Here’s the deal: before the season begins, you look at your team and realize they are not going to hit as much as they did the year before. What do you do? You get some better pitchers so you can reduce the bottom line on the other side of the ball. This is exactly what Theo Epstein did, and he stated as much. And you know what? It worked. The Red Sox are projecting to give up fifty fewer runs than they did last year while losing about the same amount on the offensive side. (Because of the nature of runs scored and runs allowed, the same differential at lower totals actually results in a better record, all other things being equal. This is why it’s going to be just about impossible for the Rockies to ever win 100 games.)
The Phillies are the best team on paper, but the worst of the contenders based
on their underlying performance so far this year. The Mets and Braves, thought
to be running on the fumes of recent contenders and making the transition to
new eras, have been the best teams in the division per the Adjusted Standings Report, while the Phils
and Marlins have come in behind them.
Separated by two games entering the All-Star break, there’s not much to choose
from among these squads. They could end up giving us the most entertaining
race in baseball this year, not because they’re all good, but because they’re
all flawed. The Phils have rotation issues and a combustible manager who has
already banished his best center fielder to the minors. The Mets have serious
OBP questions outside of their lineup core, along with a rotation that is old, not big on missing bats, and likely to regress down the stretch after pitching out of their minds in the first half. The Marlins are finding out what happens when the top of their order is just a little bit worse. The Braves have just hung around long enough to get Marcus Giles back and
Rafael Furcal back in business.