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Prospectus Hit List for May 23



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 20
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Hit List, everybody needs a thrill. Hit List, we all got a space to fill.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

29

13

32.2

33.7

33.2

.671

.667

93.3%

5.2%

98.5%

-0.2%

-0.3%

After starting 25-6, the Cubs have gone 4-7 and their win pace plummeted from 131 to 112, while Joe Maddon has completely run out of matching Project Runway suits to have the team wear on road trips.
2

27

17

28.2

29.0

28.4

.591

.596

58.3%

23.0%

81.3%

1.9%

0.2%

Jackie Bradley Jr. has now hit in 27 straight games, and he's crediting it all to some advice David Oritz gave him: just announce your retirement.
3

27

17

28.6

29.1

29.3

.598

.593

52.3%

33.4%

85.7%

2.1%

6.7%

This month Bryce Harper has 31 walks, or just four fewer than the entire Kansas City Royals.
4

26

17

26.8

26.8

25.2

.570

.575

73.5%

7.7%

81.2%

2.9%

12.7%

The Mariners already have 18 road victories. Last year they won their 18th road game on June 30.
5

25

18

24.7

26.0

24.5

.575

.570

44.3%

37.7%

82.0%

1.7%

3.7%

Don't like the new slide rules? Convince Matt Harvey to say that he can't pitch well because he's bothered by the complexities and inconsistencies of them.
6

22

23

24.2

27.5

26.7

.566

.561

43.5%

19.0%

62.5%

1.8%

-15.5%

The Dodgers had four different pitchers bat yesterday, including J.P. Howell and a pinch-hitting Clayton Kershaw. There's not using the DH and then there's performing a ritual animal sacrifice in direct defiance against the baseball deity that created it.
7

26

18

25.9

26.1

25.1

.555

.560

42.3%

24.4%

66.7%

4.6%

-11.8%

Chris Sale has been so impressive, and yet in only one of his nine starts did he allow zero runs. The exact same things can be said of Chase Anderson, Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson.
8

22

19

23.3

22.3

22.2

.553

.558

46.8%

23.4%

70.3%

-3.9%

5.8%

Did you know Juan Uribe is seventh among active major leaguers in defensive bWAR? Follow-up question: did you know Juan Uribe is active?
9

20

21

22.0

23.9

24.4

.547

.552

15.4%

27.0%

42.4%

-5.6%

4.8%

While Kevin Kiermaier is on the mend for a few weeks with a broken hand, the Rays are calling up a center fielder with just as much range, a ridiculously large rug.
10

23

21

26.8

28.2

27.8

.555

.550

3.4%

28.9%

32.3%

-5.7%

-2.2%

It's hard to believe Jaime Garcia is still playing for the Cardinals, and that he is just one year older than Cardinals rookie Jeremy Hazelbaker.
11

26

16

23.6

23.5

22.9

.524

.529

12.0%

21.3%

33.3%

-4.4%

-2.9%

As long as they're in first place, they are impervious to criticism on giving Paul Janish a spot on a major league roster. But drop so much as a half game out of first, and oh man the jokes are on.
12

27

19

23.7

24.3

24.4

.534

.529

46.4%

18.7%

65.1%

6.4%

18.9%

San Francisco doesn't need a designated hitter, because games like last night where Madison Bumgarner produces the game's only run are worth enough in narrative plot points to outweigh, you know, the value of a competent hitter.
13

22

24

23.2

24.0

24.7

.519

.524

8.5%

20.2%

28.6%

4.2%

-8.7%

All these rumors about the Blue Jays possibly trading Drew Storen reminds me of when everyone was whispering about me potentially selling my Sega Game Gear. And both would bring about the same return.
14

23

19

21.5

21.2

20.6

.510

.505

3.3%

27.8%

31.0%

-1.0%

-0.4%

Right now, Gerrit Cole is the only Pirates starting pitcher worth his weight. If the rotation were a poker hand, they'd be an ace and four jokers! Wait, that would make them five aces.
15

21

22

21.0

21.6

21.1

.493

.498

6.4%

10.7%

17.1%

3.3%

7.6%

Cameron Maybin hit .194/.313/.367 in a month of rehab games, then .600/.652/.750 in a week of major league games. If there is another level above MLB and he gets promoted to that, he may discover new numbers.
16

21

22

19.4

19.6

20.4

.489

.494

5.9%

11.6%

17.5%

2.2%

4.6%

It's hard to come out of nowhere with a five-game winning streak, but lo and behold the most fanbase-polarizing franchise in baseball history seems to have found a way.
17

25

19

22.8

20.2

20.2

.486

.491

16.5%

13.2%

29.7%

-0.8%

-6.5%

An indoor, weather-controlled ballpark in Texas? That'll never work! Not without a funny hill.
18

17

28

19.0

20.1

20.3

.485

.490

6.5%

6.8%

13.3%

-3.8%

-7.4%

There are so many Astros hitters struggling at the plate, they have to fill an entire Astros baseball lineup.
19

21

21

20.7

21.9

22.7

.490

.485

5.7%

5.8%

11.5%

-1.6%

-1.1%

Because the game was called after one inning, Nolan Arenado's RBI triple won't count. It didn't happen, because it rained. Imagine if your accomplishments and failures were contingent upon specific weather.
20

21

25

22.6

23.0

24.4

.489

.484

3.9%

4.1%

7.9%

0.0%

1.7%

So far this year the Diamondbacks have employed the following players in center field: David Peralta (more of a corner infielder), Chris Owings (more of a middle infielder), Chris Herrmann (literally a catcher), Socrates Brito (died over 2,000 years ago), and Michael Bourn (died three years ago, effectively).
21

22

21

20.3

22.2

22.7

.488

.483

2.4%

11.0%

13.4%

-4.1%

-6.7%

Giancarlo Stanton is just fifth on his own team in on-base percentage (.324) -- less so if you take away his home runs, which when you think about it you really don't get "on base" with those.
22

22

21

19.9

19.0

18.9

.466

.471

4.3%

6.6%

11.0%

-0.7%

4.3%

It's going just fine in Kansas City. Ned Yost just has to spray some holy water on whatever computer is nearby and the team just keeps staying afloat.
23

20

24

20.4

18.1

18.7

.449

.454

2.1%

2.0%

4.1%

0.8%

0.4%

Bringing in Tim Lincecum should, at the very least, help sell some tickets to baseball fans who have been stuck in outer space for six years fighting aliens and destroying comets headed for Earth. But then again, why are they buying their own tickets in the first place?
24

25

19

18.2

18.8

17.9

.441

.436

1.0%

6.7%

7.7%

2.0%

-1.2%

You may not think the Phillies can keep up this winning record despite a -31 run differential, but all it takes is a single 31-0 victory.
25

19

26

17.1

15.9

16.8

.428

.432

1.4%

1.8%

3.2%

-0.7%

-2.7%

Sonny Gray and Josh Reddick are both hurt, but the good news for the Athletics is I don't have to finish this sentence
26

18

26

18.0

15.9

15.4

.425

.420

0.0%

0.9%

0.9%

-0.6%

-1.2%

Jhan Marinez finally made his Brewers debut, nine days after they traded for him, and he pitched two scoreless innings. Who knows how much higher they'd be in the power rankings if they used him more. Perhaps one spot!
27

19

26

19.0

15.0

15.6

.423

.418

0.5%

0.7%

1.3%

-0.9%

-2.0%

Here's another foreboding stat: the Padres are 0-1 when giving up four runs in the 17th inning.
28

11

32

13.9

13.5

13.6

.394

.399

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.4%

Glen Perkins is going to take a break from his rehab assignment, mostly because the Twins looked at the standings and said, nope, don't need a closer yet.
29

12

31

13.7

14.2

15.7

.374

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Taking two of three from Philadelphia this weekend was their first series victory since ... the other one they had this year.
30

15

29

13.9

10.8

12.0

.370

.365

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

It's fair to note that the abysmal Reds bullpen has not allowed a run in their last six innings, spanning two games. It's also important to note that they have lost both games.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


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