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Prospectus Hit List for May 6



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 2
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

'This Hit List is stupid.' -Adam LaRoche

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

21

6

22.6

23.2

23.0

.706

.701

92.1%

6.0%

98.0%

0.8%

2.6%

The Cubs are 20-6. Their expected record based on runs scored and allowed is 22-4. Not enough snakes and clowns in the locker room, Joe Maddon!
2

19

9

19.6

20.3

19.5

.624

.619

47.3%

38.5%

85.8%

-1.7%

9.5%

Way to make Scott Boras' head explode: Daniel Murphy is out-hitting Bryce Harper. Therefore Harper should sign an extension for less than three years, $37.5 million.
3

17

10

18.3

17.7

16.1

.605

.600

48.8%

37.1%

85.9%

-1.8%

0.4%

Sure the Mets rotation is better than their bullpen, but how much better would you be at your job if you had Noah Syndergaard on your side?
4

17

11

17.6

18.3

17.3

.577

.582

64.9%

7.9%

72.8%

2.4%

17.3%

Felix Hernandez's average fastball has dropped eight miles-per-hour since 2007. His hair is still 100 mph worth of awesome though.
5

17

11

16.6

16.8

16.6

.572

.577

50.5%

21.3%

71.8%

7.2%

17.2%

Travis Shaw is a career .256/.319/.395 hitter in 158 Triple-A games. In the majors, he's hit .280/.341/.491. This proves once and for all my theory that Germans love David Hasselhoff.
6

19

10

17.1

17.6

17.3

.569

.574

43.5%

28.4%

72.0%

-3.9%

-0.5%

First place and with the best record in the American League. I bet Adam LaRoche is sitting at home muttering, 'kids are stupid' over and over.
7

13

12

14.5

14.1

14.7

.563

.568

44.5%

27.6%

72.1%

4.1%

-0.5%

Two of the Indians five leading hitters by WARP are Rajai Davis and Marlon Byrd. If they can only get Jeff Francoeur they'll complete the set!
8

14

14

15.2

17.1

16.2

.569

.564

66.8%

10.0%

76.8%

2.4%

-2.6%

It's a shame Vin Scully isn't doing games on the road. Teams can't give him gifts lauding him for having the same range as Derek Jeter during their final seasons.
9

15

14

18.9

19.5

19.1

.566

.561

3.4%

26.6%

30.0%

0.9%

-7.0%

You have to admire the Cardinals for not playing Jeremy Hazelbaker all the time. It's like saving the best bite of a sundae. It's willful denial of something wonderful for no other reason than puritan ideals.
10

15

15

16.6

16.0

16.3

.531

.535

16.9%

22.0%

38.9%

3.2%

8.1%

Brett Cecil hates being booed. Blue Jays fans hate bad pitching. Our sport is getting too partisan!
11

12

14

11.8

14.2

14.7

.528

.533

21.2%

22.8%

44.0%

-3.4%

-8.6%

Kevin Cash is Joe Maddon without a sense of humor, so maybe actually better than Joe Maddon.
12

16

11

15.0

15.5

15.1

.521

.526

7.4%

12.5%

19.9%

1.0%

-1.8%

The Orioles are the only major-league team yet to hit a triple. Yes, the Braves have no triples either, but I said, 'major-league team.'
13

15

15

15.0

15.9

15.8

.519

.514

21.2%

16.3%

37.5%

-4.7%

-3.6%

Tim Lincecum is having a pitching showcase today, though he'll also feature homemade snacks as well as local arts and crafts.
14

15

13

14.3

14.7

14.3

.516

.511

4.3%

27.7%

32.0%

-0.7%

-6.0%

The Cubs swept Pittsburgh, dropping them to six games back in just three days. As a Washington Capitals fan, I just thought I'd point that out.
15

14

13

13.9

13.7

13.3

.501

.506

8.0%

15.9%

23.9%

-4.7%

1.8%

The black ink on Justin Verlander's Baseball-Reference page has moved from strikeouts, ERA, and wins, to earned runs. Just three years and $84 million left, Tigers fans. After this year, of course.
16

15

12

13.2

14.6

14.8

.503

.498

3.3%

18.4%

21.7%

3.3%

10.0%

The Marlins are suing a season ticket holder. Apparently they don't know fans are supposed to attend their games.
17

14

14

14.2

15.2

15.4

.495

.490

6.3%

5.7%

12.0%

2.1%

6.7%

What's more surprising, that the Rockies don't lead baseball in runs score, or that they don't lead baseball in runs allowed?
18

15

14

14.6

12.3

12.6

.473

.478

10.9%

7.2%

18.1%

-2.5%

-4.1%

Now that Adrian Beltre has re-signed, they need to make sure Elvis Andrus will be around. [checks his contract] Done!
19

10

19

11.9

12.2

11.5

.469

.474

13.2%

9.5%

22.7%

-3.0%

-6.1%

One regular Astros starter has an ERA under 4.00. If you guessed Scott Feldman you are A) a very sad and mean person, and B) right.
20

14

13

11.9

11.6

11.7

.461

.466

3.5%

8.1%

11.6%

0.4%

-2.6%

According to our Playoff Odds Report, the Royals have an 11.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, or, to put that in a way Royals fans will understand, yay you're going to the playoffs!!!
21

13

15

12.9

11.3

11.0

.451

.456

4.9%

4.1%

9.0%

0.1%

-3.9%

Angels hitters have struck out the fewest times of any team in baseball, a rate that far exceeds their front office's player personnel record. Remember, Sussman is the funny guy, I'm the unnecessarily mean guy.
22

9

17

9.8

10.2

10.5

.449

.454

4.0%

6.4%

10.5%

-1.8%

-8.6%

The mere fact that a 40-year-old DH going on the DL will actually hurt the team about sums up where the Yankees are right now.
23

13

16

12.5

11.5

11.7

.447

.452

6.1%

4.1%

10.2%

0.6%

-4.8%

Billy Butler's contract.
24

12

18

12.1

13.0

14.7

.456

.451

3.5%

2.9%

6.4%

-1.0%

-10.1%

Rule 437B.2 of the baseball rulebook says if you attempt to take a selfie with a player who has fallen into the stands, any and all rules against cannibalism pertaining to you are immediately and permanently suspended.
25

16

13

11.2

11.6

12.3

.433

.428

0.6%

4.7%

5.3%

-1.0%

1.0%

The Phillies have three good starters and a winning record. This season must be the 1,000,001st simulation out of 1,000,000.
26

12

17

11.8

10.5

10.6

.427

.422

2.1%

2.1%

4.2%

1.5%

2.2%

MLB.com's dating site is up and a great way to meet eligible singles if you're not so busy, say, between the hours of 7pm and 10pm.
27

8

20

9.7

10.5

10.2

.416

.420

0.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.4%

-2.9%

Byung-ho Park is slugging .595. He parked .714 last season in Korea last season. Oh, in Korea they say he Parked.
28

12

17

9.7

7.8

9.2

.395

.390

0.1%

1.9%

1.9%

0.5%

-1.5%

You are at a party. You meet an attractive person. You talk to them. You smile. They smile. Things are going well. Your friend comes over and tells the story about the time you fart-pooped in chemistry class. Your friend is the Reds bullpen.
29

11

17

10.0

7.7

7.5

.395

.390

0.2%

2.1%

2.3%

-0.6%

-1.4%

The Brewers should trade Ryan Braun. You should take a shower. Neither will happen, but both should.
30

7

20

7.7

7.2

9.0

.351

.346

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Braves are considering changing their manager, which is like a hoarder thinking, 'Ya know I really should dust this end table.'

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
Deadheadbrewer

Sussman might BE the funny guy, but I laughed a good number of times while reading this (as I often do)!

May 06, 2016 06:49 AM
up_image

+3

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motherbuckner

The Reds comment made me laugh explosively. Note I did say LAUGH.

May 06, 2016 06:58 AM
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+2

down_image
 
lonechicken

Of course they should re-sign Adrian Beltre. The guy is only... checks baseball-reference... Holy crap, he's finally old!

May 06, 2016 09:01 AM
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+2

down_image
 
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