On the 25th of August, 2012, the Red Sox offloaded an unholy load of sour contracts and the Dodgers pared off a corner of their gigantic new slab of money to trumpet their re-arrival as muscular big-market buyers. Nick Punto was involved, too. Ownership had mercifully changed in Los Angeles. Rock bottom had been achieved in Boston. Strangers bolting toward new lives, they had a brief rendezvous, momentarily useful to one another.
Then, the lines diverged.
Their greener pastures came quickly. More quickly for the Red Sox, who filled a depleted roster like a raft with every positive clubhouse character they could find, and promptly won the 2013 World Series. Immediately afterward, they hit the skids again and ousted another front office, this time bringing in Dave Dombrowski.
The Dodgers soon signed Zack Greinke, landed a Cuban outfielder named Yasiel Puig, and took a hold of the National League West crown that they have not relinquished. About a year later, they poached Andrew Friedman to shepherd their endless stream of baseball-team-making dollars and built a behemoth.
For the first time in a while, the Fall Classic won’t be a referendum on how to build a baseball team. That’s partly because these two franchises are too rich to limit themselves to any one plan. They can follow every lead—casually forget about the Scott Kazmir contract, or the fact that Rusney Castillo has taken 1,148 plate appearances in Triple-A since his last appearance in the majors. They can make mind-boggling, bank-breaking transactions, fail, then turn into contenders on a dime.
It’s also partly because baseball likes to claw back at our notions of good sense, throw it in our face that these two paths somehow led to the same place.
As the Red Sox zero in on their fourth World Series since 2000, there will be just one holdover starter from their last title-winning team on the field: Xander Bogaerts. The Dodgers were here last year, of course, and even boast more continuity from 2013. They’ve been diligently cracking October’s code this whole time, bit by bit, while the Red Sox were leaping to the summit, stumbling off a cliff, accidentally playing badly enough to score Andrew Benintendi, then soaring back to the top with instant superstar Mookie Betts and some marquee acquisitions.
Despite the laser-guided organization-building, Los Angeles had to thrash through a struggle of a season just to get another spin of the postseason wheel, looking for that first championship breakthrough under this all-systems-go ownership group, the first championship in 30 years.
Best laid plans, etc. First to four wins gets to feel like it was all worth it.
Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG/TAv)
Dodgers:
LF-L Joc Pederson (.248/.321/.522/.294)
3B-R Justin Turner (.312/.406/.518/.332)
DH-L Max Muncy (.263/.391/.582/.340)
SS-R Manny Machado (.297/.367/.538/.306)
1B-L Cody Bellinger (.260/.343/.470/.299)
RF-R Yasiel Puig (.267/.327/.494/.290)
CF-R Chris Taylor (.254/.331/.444/.282)
C-R Austin Barnes (.205/.329/.290/.238)
2B-R Enrique Hernandez (.256/.336/.470/.291)
The usual disclaimer: Trying to write out a representative Dodgers lineup is like trying to eat soup with a fork. American League rules are just another factor for Dave Roberts to manipulate. He has already said Matt Kemp will DH in Game 1 and David Freese will start somewhere. That doesn’t seem likely to be the case for the majority of the games in the series, unless it is.
Turner is a constant threat. Machado and Puig, with similar levels of hype-ness and different ways of channeling it, have been the Dodgers’ best postseason hitters. May the crotch-chopping continue, and the potentially injurious baserunning shenanigans cease. Taylor has also played himself into more opportunities, reaching base at a .467 clip.
It may feel as though Bellinger has had a redeeming October after last season’s record-setting whiff-fest, but his hits have been timely rather than numerous (he’s slashing .139/.244/.250), and a majority of these games will involve left-handed Red Sox starters.
What they do at catcher is … uncomfortable. Logic says Yasmani Grandal should get another chance, but it’s hard to push back on whatever Roberts decides, as he has eyes on the person behind the embattled player.
Red Sox:
RF-R Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640/.359)
LF-L Andrew Benintendi (.290/.366/.465/.289)
DH-R J.D. Martinez (.333/.402/.629/.340)
SS-R Xander Bogaerts (.289/.360/.522/.305)
1B-R Steve Pearce (.279/.394/.507/.321)
3B-L Rafael Devers (.240/.298/.433/.252)
2B-L Brock Holt (.277/.362/.411/.273)
C-S Sandy Leon (.177/.232/.279/.182)
CF-L Jackie Bradley (.234/.314/.403/.254)
The Red Sox have plated 13 more runs than the Dodgers in two fewer games this postseason, against undeniably more talented pitching staffs. And, without sounding the back-in-my-day-siren, they have also struck out 50 fewer times. You’ve already decided whether that is correlation or causation, so I won’t attempt to persuade you hither or thither.
Notably, they’ve done this without typical levels of offensive production from Betts or Benintendi. It doesn’t need to be said, but let’s say it: If regular-season Mookie shows up to go with Martinez, this could be a quick and explosive coronation.
The bottom of the order is less firm. Devers seems to have wrested the starting job away from Eduardo Nunez. Holt, meanwhile, is still working on convincing Alex Cora that he’s a better bat than Ian Kinsler, who unfortunately doesn’t even offer strikeout avoidance at this point.
Finally, the looming question of the National League rules lineup, Betts, and second base. In short: The Brewers rolled with Travis Shaw at second base for months, which should put to rest any question of whether Betts can handle it. Further, the potential benefits (filling an offensively weak position with Betts, not losing any Martinez at-bats) are hard to ignore. It almost has to be the move for Game 3 against a right-handed starter. It could be that a cooled-off Bradley takes a seat in Game 4 or 5 against lefty pitching, but even in those contests, the infield may come calling for the likely AL MVP at some point.
Benches (AVG/OBP/SLG/TAv)
Dodgers:
INF-R David Freese (.296/.359/.471/.299)
OF-R Matt Kemp (.290/.338/.481/.291)
2B-R Brian Dozier (.215/.305/.391/.249)
C-S Yasmani Grandal (.241/.349/.466/.295)
Freese is low key one of the better additions any team made this year, as he has performed his assigned task (bludgeoning lefties) better than even the most optimistic forecasters could have expected. Dozier and Kemp have been shuffled to the periphery, but will have their chances in this series.
Red Sox:
C/1B/OF-S: Blake Swihart (.229/.285/.328/.217)
C-L: Christian Vazquez (.207/.257/.283/.197)
1B-L: Mitch Moreland (.245/.325/.433/.262)
2B-R: Ian Kinsler (.242/.294/.311/.208)
3B-R: Eduardo Nunez (.265/.289/.388/.236)
Cora has said Boston is likely sticking with 14 position players. That’s despite Swihart’s one postseason plate appearance and Nunez’s omnipresent health issues. The games in Los Angeles are likely to throw Cora’s assessments of these rather shaky options into sharp relief. Outside of Moreland, are the plate appearances worth, say, removing Sale or a suddenly dominant Eovaldi before their pitching would dictate it? Frankly, there are some cases where he could justifiably lean no.
However he deploys this group, it will pale in comparison to the Dodgers’ bench cavalcade.
Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, DRA)
Dodgers:
LHP Clayton Kershaw (161, 2.73, 3.11)
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (82, 1.97, 2.45)
RHP Walker Buehler (137, 2.62, 3.21)
LHP Rich Hill (133, 3.66, 3.92)
Two brilliant starts, one clunker and a strong—if unnecessary—relief appearance. Nineteen innings (the most of any pitcher so far this month), a 2.37 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP. That’s Kershaw’s postseason. Take stock now to ground yourself for whatever comes next as he takes his breaking-ball-first show on the road to the home of Betts and Martinez.
The overall numbers would tell you lefties like Kershaw, Ryu, and Hill present a tougher matchup for the Red Sox, but those numbers also wouldn’t properly account for how much time Pearce and Moreland will get against southpaws (all and none, respectively), or how absurdly good Boston’s best hitters are against southpaws.
Ryu’s October has been sliding downhill since his stellar start against the Braves, while Hill’s solid ERA tells a different story than his terrifying WHIP. Buehler, the lone righty, stepped forward in NLCS Game 7 by pumping premium heat until someone made him stop. Against a team like Boston with strong approaches up and down the line, Buehler’s in-your-face power might be as good an option as there is.
Red Sox:
LHP Chris Sale (158, 2.11, 2.24)
LHP David Price (176, 3.58, 3.72)
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (111, 3.81, 3.23)
RHP Rick Porcello (191, 4.28, 4.02)
It’s safe to say Sale—he of whole belly button but uncertain shoulder—is loose enough ahead of his Game 1 start, and while we’re doing some armchair psychology it would be reasonable to think some weight has been lifted off of Price.
More importantly: After struggling with injury and illness, Sale will at least be working Game 1 on a ton of rest. Compromising conditions make the following numbers less telling than they otherwise would be, but Sale has a 1.67 ERA in 30 starts on six or more days rest. Price, meanwhile, didn’t just finally win a postseason start. He found a changeup-heavy mode of pitching that flummoxed the Astros. Who’s to say if that level of feel for the pitch will be there in autumnal Boston, but if nothing else it’s an extra element for the Dodgers to worry about.
Then there’s Nathan Eovaldi. His October line so far: 14 1/3 innings, 1.88 ERA, 10 strikeouts, two walks, no homers, and several dollar signs. Wait those aren’t actually on the box scores, are they? A revelation in relief, Porcello is still his usual self overall, though he seems to have evolved into a vocal, rah-rah leader and profanity-laced quote-giver, which is fun.
The task for this rotation is simple enough: Keep the bullpen standing. And plan for your throw day to occur on the mound, possibly in the eighth inning.
Relief Pitchers (IP, ERA, DRA)
Dodgers:
RHP Kenley Jansen (72, 3.01, 2.56)
RHP Pedro Baez (56, 2.88, 3.35)
RHP Kenta Maeda (125, 3.81, 2.78)
RHP Ryan Madson (53, 5.47, 5.17)
LHP Caleb Ferguson (49, 3.49, 3.17)
LHP Alex Wood (152, 3.68, 3.41)
LHP Julio Urias (4, 0.00, 1.88)
RHP Dylan Floro (64, 2.25, 4.34)
If you can find a prop bet on the seemingly useful Ross Stripling making the roster, take it, because we have finally given up on the idea. Instead, August trade acquisition Madson has been the man to escape a jam, and Baez the main bridge to Jansen. As weird as that first part would have sounded a month ago, it has totally worked! Madson and Baez have combined for 13 innings, in which there has been one measly run, 16 strikeouts, and three walks.
For his part, Jansen has looked strong as an ox after a tumultuous regular season, even if the decision to use him before Kershaw in Game 7 was odd.
It’s not clear what the Dodgers are doing with Urias, who just threw on back-to-back days for the first time in his life—and gave up ringing contact that Taylor tracked down—but it seems he will be around for assignment against lefties like Benintendi.
Red Sox:
RHP Craig Kimbrel (62, 2.74, 2.58)
RHP Matt Barnes (62, 3.65, 2.21)
RHP Ryan Brasier (34, 1.60, 3.57)
RHP Joe Kelly (66, 4.39, 4.56)
RHP Heath Hembree (62, 4.20, 3.87)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (130, 3.82, 3.77)
RHP Steven Wright (24, 2.68, 2.72)
Reaching the World Series with Kimbrel flailing—struggling with an apparently rectified pitch-tipping issue, it turns out—is an impossible-sounding victory for Boston. Cora has milked strong setup work out of Eovaldi, Porcello, and even Sale. That has sort of overshadowed the fact that Brasier and Barnes have answered the bell, allowing just one run between them, but also looked very shaky—tallying nine walks and 11 strikeouts.
Cora’s use of the starters has alleviated some pressure on the bullpen, but the overall unit hasn’t truly answered the big questions yet. We’re guessing Wright, the now-healthy knuckleballer, slots in over Hembree or Brandon Workman to give Cora more options and more length when he faces down trickier decisions, especially in Dodger Stadium.
Defense
The Dodgers will play whatever alignment suits them on a given day, but must account for the challenges presented by Fenway Park. That likely means more Puig plate appearances against lefties than they might otherwise plan for—as he’s undeniably the top option to cover a massive right field against aggressive baserunners—and perhaps more careful thought about who mans the other two spots in Boston. Also, it goes without saying: Fewer passed balls and general catcher issues would be nice.
Betts’ potential second-base experiment in L.A. aside, the Red Sox have repeatedly shown the value of a stellar outfield defense, and they will roll with that elite unit for at least four games of the series, probably more. On the dirt, things are a bit touchier, especially at third base.
Managers
First, it’s worth noting, and celebrating, that two minority managers have led their squads to the pinnacle. Roberts and Cora are also amusingly intertwined with the franchises meeting in this World Series, but we’ll let the trusty broadcast narrative machine take it from there.
As for the actual managing, you can expect steady, front-office driven hands at the wheel. Roberts has taken it easier on the bullpen this time around, and showed some patience in letting Buehler push through choppy waters, but heaven knows he’ll inspire some double takes. Cora’s starter-as-setup-man tactic is an obvious move given his personnel, and is likely to continue, but how he assesses the real-time effectiveness of those options and Kimbrel will be scrutinized, especially if the series pushes him to move off his script.
Prediction
If you are looking for a matchup that could decide this thing, turn your attention toward the Dodgers’ starters and the Red Sox’s lineup. All the chatter about the dicey Boston bullpen was not wrong, but it may have put the cart before the horse. As many noted during the blitzes of New York and Houston, most relievers can do the job when spotted six runs. We won’t be fooled thrice.
Given the names, pedigrees, and general modus operandi of the Dodgers’ pitching staff, there are going to be plenty of second turns through that Red Sox lineup. L.A. must avoid out-and-out onslaughts in those middle innings. They obviously have arms that could do that, but will they manage it over this particular week-and-a-half of games?
The 108-win Boston juggernaut needs competence from a group of starting pitchers in flux, and something approximating usual form from the lineup that gave rise to a historic, sometimes unbeatable team. Joe West aside, the Red Sox have dispatched two other incredibly good units without everything clicking, and that lineup must be considered the surest thing in this series. It makes the Red Sox the favorite to hang their fourth World Series banner of the millennium as the Dodgers’ drought persists. Red Sox in six.
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