The last thing I am is a deadline drum-beater for the somehow coveted mediocrity that is Kris Benson (or, Jeff Suppan v2.0, if you prefer). However, if there’s one team that can use him in the back of the rotation, it’s the Twins.
Brad Radke and Johan Santana have been Cy Young contenders in the front two spots, and Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse have been serviceable. Still, Terry Mulholland’s 4.55 R/G doesn’t seem likely to hold up. The rumored deal, one that would send Doug Mientkiewicz and Mike Restovich to Pittsburgh, is reasonable. Justin Morneau is fully ready to take over at first and thrive for years to come, Restovich comes from a position of notable depth within the organization (and he’s not a future star), and Mientkiewicz, while somewhat underrated by most of us in past seasons, has been an unmitigated cipher in 2004. It’s a deal that makes sense for Minnesota, but only because the price for them is nominal and they’re not viewing Benson as something he’s squarely not, an ace.
Andy Pettitte ’04 = Jason Schmidt ’03. Pettitte has a small but significant tear in his flexor tendon. While it will need surgical repair, it could wait until the end of the season. Pettitte may end up on the DL, but it’s more likely that he’ll simply pitch to pain tolerance. If Pettitte can go five innings or so, he’ll have some value. However, with Pettitte’s contract, the Astros will have to make a decision on when their season is over, minimizing the stress on the lefty’s arm. The Astros are also worried that Wade Miller might miss the rest of the season. An August return is unrealistic, but by September, there may be no reason to come back. The Astros are taking a look at Paul Wilson, sending scouts to watch his last start. They need the rotation filler.
So much for the bullpen. After Tim Hudson came out of his simulated game, Oakland’s plan for him got serious. While he will still have a start at Triple-A, Hudson is expected to come back at near full-strength at the middle of next week. The A’s will limit his pitch count a bit, but Hudson will be expected to do what every starting pitcher is expected to do–win.
The Diamondbacks need to get good value for Randy Johnson and Steve Finley. The Tigers could market Jason Johnson as a cheaper Kris Benson. The Royals could test the waters with Joe Randa, Scott Sullivan and others. These and other trade deadline-oriented news and notes out of Arizona, Detroit and Kansas City in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The Orioles resurrect B.J. Surhoff. The Tigers let go of Greg Norton. Milwaukee adds Three True Outcome God Russ Branyan to the active roster. Ramon Hernandez comes off the DL in San Diego. The Crime Dog gets his walking papers in Tampa Bay. And the Rangers prepare for their first interesting stretch-run of the new century. All this and much more news from around the league in your Wednesday edition of Transaction Analysis.
From now until shortly after the non-waiver trading deadline, “You Could Look It Up” will examine the key mid-season trades for each franchise (with “mid-season” being generously defined as “June 15 to the end of the regular season”) and evaluate each trade to see what a mid-season addition is really worth, and if possible to discern patterns and discover which deals really help and which are of little or even negative value. After we break down each trade, we’ll come to a “snap judgment,” a hasty conclusion. At the end of the series, we’ll see if those judgments add up to any helpful conclusions…
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m starting to get the same sense about this year’s
trade deadline that I used to get at parties in college around 12:30 or so.
The night would start with such great anticipation, thinking there’d be some
good hooking up, what with all the talent in the room. As the night wore on,
though, it would became clear that nothing was going to happen, and
anticipation would slowly become frustration and then desperation. Eventually,
I’d just go home, feeling like I’d wasted an awful lot of energy for nothing.
(I’d extend the analogy by comparing, say, Brian Cashman and some girl I
wanted to know better back in 1993, but you just know her husband would be
reading this and I’d get sued.)
So why is this July turning into a bad re-creation of my college days? Blame
it on everyone and everything…
Maybe it’s never going to end.
Maybe, in the winter of 1990, in the back room of a bar just outside of the
city limits, Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz sat down and made a deal, never
quite noticing that their co-conspirator had a tail and lit their cigars by
snapping his fingers. (“Ultra-small lighter from Japan,” he
claimed.)
Maybe the Atlanta Braves are going to make every postseason from now until the
Rapture.
I wrote the Braves off this season, figuring that the cumulative talent drain
since the end of 2002, coupled with the improvement by the Phillies, was
finally going to be too much. It was an amazing run, winning a division title
in 12 straight completed seasons, but all good things had to come to an end.
They’d turned over an entire rotation in two years, never really solved the
corner infield problems that had plagued them since moving Chipper
Jones to the outfield, and watched two of the five best players in
the NL last year move to the AL East. Their corporate ownership continued to
Wal-Mart the payroll, and the farm system wasn’t nearly as productive as it
had been in the 1990s.
I was working with incomplete information. I didn’t know about the 1990
meeting, and a contract signed with an all-too-warm pen, and the eventual
destination of two souls.
Look, we pulled down the Berlin Wall, and it was once controversial to speak out against that. I like to think time will prove me right. It has in the past, I think that’s going to continue. Ideas come and go, and you have to look at them and if their time is past, then so be it, that’s how it goes. You can shoot the messenger if you want, but I’ve been shot at before and I’m still here, still talking to you.
We’ve all got trade fever. Everybody is obsessed with the possibility that massive amounts of jockflesh will be migrating around and about the American and National Leagues. In many cases, it’s not even important that these trades ever even take place. No, what matters is the mere possibility that they might.
Which leads us to the advice portion of today’s effort: How to start, spread and maintain your very own trade rumor. “Why would I want to do that?” some of you might be asking. So that you can leave a mark on society, of course. So that you say that you did something with your life. Not everyone can be a big shot and start a corporation, but anyone can start a rumor. The true test of a person is not how much money they make, but how much misinformation they can circulate among the populace.
As part of BP’s wall-to-wall Trade Deadline coverage, Baseball Prospectus Radio will go two hours live on Saturday, focusing almost completely on trades. We have GMs, agents, and writers at the ready, as well as several BP authors. It should be one heck of a good time, so be sure to tune in.
Powered by a loud, clear voice, on to the injuries:
The Jason Giambi Watch is approaching ridiculous levels, as the media has seized onto the ramblings of Giambi’s personal trainer, Bob Alejo, who is close to the first baseman, but hardly a reliable source of medical information. While amebiasis is a serious condition, it is seldom fatal when treated. There are still other test-results pending, so there are still open questions about Giambi’s condition. He’s yet to go on the DL, but inside sources say that the Yankees are looking at their options if Giambi has to be shut down–one of which could be Doug Mientkiewicz.
Just how badly injured is Andy Pettitte this time? No worse than the last, according to Houston sources, who are also saying that it appears to be another sprained ligament, further weakening the elbow’s structure. Pettitte appears to be damaged goods, making the Yankees decision to let him walk away look all that much smarter. The Astros also hope to get Wade Miller back sometime in August. Miller has been able to play long-toss, but he is not ready to begin a rehab assignment.
The Diamondbacks go with youth in their rotation. The Red Sox pointlessly resurrect Ricky Gutierrez. Grady Sizemore and David Wright make their debuts for the Indians and Mets. Tip o’ the cap to the solid career of Pat Hentgen. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
”You Could Look It Up” is a weekly look at the game’s present through the funhouse mirror of the past. Today we begin an experiment in unguided writing, an experiment in blue sky time travel without a thesis. From now until shortly after the non-waiver trading deadline, YCLIU will examine the key mid-season trades for each franchise (mid-season being generously described as June 15 to the end of the regular season) and evaluate each deal to see what a mid-season addition is really worth–and if possible, to discern patterns and discover which deals really help and which are of little or even negative value.
After we break down each trade, we’ll come to a “snap judgment,” a hasty conclusion. At the end of the series, we’ll see if those judgments add up to any helpful conclusions. In each installment we’ll highlight a team or two, alternating American and National League clubs. The first two installments will highlight the opponents of the 1992 World Series, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves.
Lots of e-mailers asked about reports that Jason Giambi was tested for cancer last week. Giambi’s been poked, prodded, and had every test known to man conducted over the last few weeks, including ones for cancer. As yet, there is still no solid diagnosis, post-parasitic. Since giardia is easily cleared up, and the body recovers quickly, the symptoms intransigence is puzzling. At some point, we may have to ask whether Giambi is dealing with a condition or merely has lost the skills necessary to play baseball at this level.
Bone marrow edema isn’t a diagnosis heard every day. In baseball, it’s now a singular event, afflicting Magglio Ordonez, who just returned from knee surgery. Also called “transient osteoporosis,” the edema is not just a short-term problem for the Sox’ outfielder, it’s also bad in the long-term; BME is a predictor of serious arthritis, gait imbalances, and increased risk for fractures near the affected bones. It’s not good for the White Sox, for Ordonez, or Ordonez’s agent, but it’s not life-threatening, as some have feared. It could be managed in a way that could allow Ordonez back on the field, but as there is nothing with which to compare this, I have no way of putting a timeline on it.
From a performance-analysis standpoint, the Snakes have been an easy target
because of their affection for older players. It’s not at all surprising that
a team with a roster as old as the Diamondbacks has collapsed; old age has
been a big factor in the 2004 disappointment of their AL counterparts, the Mariners.
The problem is that the team’s older players are its best players. Johnson,
40, might win his sixth Cy Young Award this year. Steve
Finley, 39, leads the team in games, home runs and slugging and is
the most-sought-after position player in the trade market. Luis
Gonzalez, whose left elbow is mostly theoretical at this point, is
hitting .261/.377/.501, although he’s about a week away from shutting himself
down for the season so he can undergo Tommy John surgery.
Alex Rodriguez gets a taste of the Boston/New York rivalry first hand. Sparky Lyle feels under-appreciated by Hall of Fame voters. Goose Gossage doesn’t think he’s getting any respect. Two Rangers teammates disagree on the subject of QuesTec. Lloyd McClendon doesn’t understand why Jack Wilson is so tired. And Shane Spencer talks about going on the DL for something stupid. All this and many more quips in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Like any number of other folks with a long-running obsession with all things sports, I’ve spent a fair amount of time engrossed in simulation games. For much of my youth, I played hours upon hours of Lance Haffner 3-in-1 Football on my trusty and abiding Apple IIe. I once famously led the 1986 Michigan State Spartans and QB Dave Yarema to a majestic Rose Bowl win and a national title by instituting what I believe to be a heady forerunner to the once de rigueur run-and-shoot offense (in real life they were a paltry 6-5….Give unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s, George Perles). Years later, guided by my steady, knowing hand, Max Knake of TCU would pass for more than 800 yards as my Horned Frogs crushed Texas 86-21.
Nineteen eighty-six was also a fine year for my incursions into Lance Haffner Full-Count Baseball. In a stroke of organizational genius, I, as potentate of the Cardinals, engineered trades for Dave Magadan of the Mets (whose card had him hitting a robust .444/.524/.444 in 21 plate appearances) and Mark Ryal of the Angels (.375/.412/.562 in 34 plate appearances). By having the faith and foresight to plug them into the lineup full-time and lavishing the team with “sample size be damned” statistical goofiness that followed, the disappointing ’86 Redbirds became pennant winners when fashioned in my image.