Homo sapiens emerged from Neanderthal man about 38,000 BCE. It took another 31,500 years or so for the Sumerians to invent the wheel. There were 315 centuries of watching stones rolling downhill, fallen trees being pushed aside, dates falling off the table, before experience and observation could be transformed into principles (Hey! Round stuff rolls! Round stuff that rolls might be useful to have!) and those principles then put into practice (We should try to make round stuff that rolls!). Of course, as with all good ideas, some people never bought in. The Western Hemisphere did without the wheel until the Europeans showed up. Either the locals were too busy eating the corn to roll the cobs or they just didn’t think much of wheels.
As with the wheel, so too with the amateur draft, which kicked off in 1965 as a way to finally bring down those annoyingly persistent Yankees. Many of the lessons that have been taken away the draft–high school pitchers are riskier bets as college pitchers, don’t draft high school catchers, etc.–were there to be found after the first few drafts, but it took several more years before experience hardened into a set of principles.
In Baseball Prospectus 2004, our authors ranked Devil Rays farmhand B.J. Upton as the No. 8 prospect in the game, while Baseball America on pegged him at No. 2 on their preseason list. Since then Upton’s done nothing to make those rankings look foolish, and at the tender age of 19, has already found himself playing shortstop every day at Triple-A Durham, where he’s currently hitting .315/.422/.565. Since being taken second overall in the 2002 amateur draft, Upton has been covered by John Sickels at ESPN.com and by David Cameron here at BP.
Baseball Prospectus caught up with Upton before a recent home game against the Syracuse Skychiefs, where we discussed tough pitchers, being a role model, and what it takes to improve defensive performance.
High school or college, position player or pitcher, the one constant in the
amateur draft is that no one seems to like Scott Boras’ players.
That was rarely as evident as it was yesterday as two Boras clients, each
considered the #1 draft prospect at one point during the college season, fell
to #12 and #15 on a draft day marked by an all-out search for pitching.
The Padres, picking first, passed on Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew to
instead take local high schooler Matt Bush, who signed almost immediately for
$3.15 million. Bush was probably only the second-best prep shortstop prospect
in the pool, and joins Adrian Gonzalez has a recent overall #1 who holds his
spot in history more for financial reasons than talent ones. Drew, who was
rumored to be the Padres’ choice as late as Friday, slipped all the way to
#15, where the Diamondbacks ended his torment. Given that the gap between #15
money and #1 money has range from $2-$3 million over the past few years, a
heck of a negotiation awaits Drew and the Snakes.
The first day of the draft has come and gone, while the baseball world spun around it. Instead of immersing myself in it, I stayed on the move, Nokia in hand, and got to spend a nice day at the ballpark. Jim Rushford and the Red Barons were in town. With a blue sky and a slight breeze, it couldn’t have been a better night at the ballpark.
On to the injuries…
Randy Wolf will head to the DL as the Phillies activate Billy Wagner. The team doesn’t seem overly concerned about the injury. Wolf had similar problems a few years ago and came back quickly. The Phillies think the problem is simple inflammation, and rest (and medication) will correct it, allowing him to miss only a couple starts. Ryan Madson will likely take the starts, while Larry Bowa is asking for a look at Gavin Floyd.
The Mariners’ ineptitude knows no bounds. The Expos have a gem in Nick Johnson…when he’s healthy, that is. And the Indians recently took a chance on former-Rockies hurler Scott Elarton, claiming they’re not worried about his lack of effectiveness at Coors Field. Well, perhaps they should pay attention to how ineffective he was in other places as well. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Seattle, and Montreal in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I’m tired of everyone focusing on the positive. Who’s going to be elected to the All-Star team. Where the close races are. I’m more interested in the best of the abjectly bad. Who gets in only because there has to be a representative from every team?
I want the teams where not only aren’t there any near-misses, but managers are going to have to stretch to make any selection at all. Who’s the most likely of the least deserving to get recognized this year?
Time was that the baseball amateur draft was held in relative quietude, unnoticed by fans and media alike. In the past few years, that has changed dramatically. While still not as over-the-top as its football and basketball counterparts, baseball’s drafting of schoolboy and collegiate talent gains more notice with each passing year.
In spite of the increased scrutiny, there are still a large number of young men out there who escape notice in the days and weeks leading up to the draft. Baseball Prospectus presents here a few of those players more deserving of national attention.
“Guerra, which is Spanish for war.”
Before I get to talking about the actual players or any of that stuff that you’re actually here for, I want to thank someone. Tommy Lasorda, thank you. I agree with Rob Neyer that the MLB draft just doesn’t have the sort of short-term impact on the game that would justify making a big NBA-style production number out of the first few rounds. As it turns out, though, the teams seem to go out of their way to make the event as dull as possible, with a host of mid-level functionaries, some with decent TV and/or radio (OK, Internet audio, but you know what I mean) presence, and some decidedly without, all opening their statements with a nondescript five-digit accounting number. Then there’s Tommy, whose announcements, even for a seventh-rounder who’s going to be out of the system in four years, have the character and enthusiasm of a state delegate to a national political convention. He, along with the occasional oops moment with a mike left open, provided all the entertainment of the day.
Anyway, on to the players. Here are the season numbers with a few comments for all of the senior college players drafted in the first two rounds. The first thing you’ll notice about these lists compared to last year’s is that they’re longer; the trend toward drafting college guys has definitely snowballed.
One of my all-time favorite college players was a Mississippi State pitcher from the early ’90s named Jon Harden. I’m sure he was bigger than I remember him, but I’m guessing that he was somewhere around 5’9″ and 165 pounds, though he played a bit smaller than that. On his best day with a full windup, his fastball touched 80 m.p.h., and he didn’t really have much in the way of great breaking stuff as we usually think of it. What he did have, however, was three different, dancing changeups–he could throw, with the same identical motion, at 50, 60, 70, or 80 m.p.h., basically. Armed with that, he set a school record for appearances, serving quite successfully as the team’s closer for the 1990 College World Series squad and then as the setup man when Jay Powell took over as closer in 1991. That combination in particular was absolutely deadly–you’d go from a starter with good heat, to a couple of innings of Harden’s swooping changeups, to Powell, who could throw through the backstop at that point in his career. One of my favorite memories is of watching Harden throw to LSU’s Lyle Mouton, who was already huge, and simply screw him into the ground in frustration as he guessed, flailed, and missed.
Harden never really got any attention from organized baseball because of his size and his unusual approach. He was undrafted, and he was a bit too early for the independent leagues. At that time, there was an independent team in one of the Western minor leagues, and he pitched with them for a couple of seasons before giving it up. The last time I heard, he was pitching semipro ball and getting on with his life. I doubt that he would have done that much in the pros, but he would have been worth a low-A roster slot to find out.
J.P. Ricciardi reminds us of his scouting background. Scott Boras thinks clubs should be required to pay high school draft picks top-dollar. Paul DePodesta isn’t surprised by Milton Bradley’s actions. Tony LaRussa isn’t a big fan of head-hunting. And Corey Patterson doesn’t want to apologize for being aggressive. All this and many more quips from around the league in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Ray Durham is key to any run the Giants might make, and keeping him healthy will be job one once he’s back. Durham will head to Triple-A for a week of rehab, but news of a full week seems off. If Durham looks ready earlier, he’ll be eligible to come off the list as of Monday. With Durham’s chronic leg problems, an extended rehab could put him at risk. If he’s going to hurt himself again, he will likely do it trying to help the parent club, not Fresno.
As we discuss this injury, I’d like to point you to a simple, concise definition of “strain”. Dr. George Paletta has an interesting quote regarding the injury to Albert Pujols’ hamstring: “On exam, he’s got no defect. It doesn’t appear that he’s torn the muscle. So the question is, did it just spasm and cramp on him real bad, or did he strain it? Tomorrow we’ll probably be able to tell better.” The last part, at least, tells us something. Pujols will be out at least one game, probably more considering the Cardinals can’t risk losing him for an extended period. From all accounts, Pujols has a minor (Grade I) hamstring strain that is likely the result of a changed gait, part of a cascade from his strained right hip flexor. Pujols has had some past problems with the left hamstring, so keep an eye on how quickly he’s able to return.
As you read this, MLB teams are distributing the cream of the amateur baseball
talent amongst themselves. It’s no secret that this is a difficult year for
selecting among that talent; there is no Mark Prior or
Rickie Weeks in this pool, but rather a top tier of players,
mostly college pitchers, who all seem to have some problem with their
curriculum vitae. We know that no team is going to
be completely happy with who they pick.
For better or for worse, a draft is judged largely on what happens in the
first round. The lion’s share of bonus money is handed out to #1 picks, and
teams trot their first selections to press conferences and ballparks as a way of showing their fan base the future.
The emphasis on the first round is why teams should be a bit nervous about
today’s festivities. Four years ago, the player pool was similarly unexciting,
and the first 30 picks from the 2000 draft have generated precious little
performance, and the players still labeled prospects show little sign of
saving the first round of that draft. The first round of that draft appears to
be on its way to being labeled a complete disaster.
Raul Mondesi resurfaces in Anaheim. Rey Ordonez finds a home in the Windy City. The Ryan Wagner for Rookie of the Year bandwagon is officially derailed. Andy Pettitte hits the DL again for the Astros. Joe Mauer returns, with Justin Morneau being sent down…again. The sun rises in the west and Nick Johnson comes off the DL. And the Devil Rays indulge Fred McGriff in his ”drunker sailor tumble towards 500 home runs.” All this and much more news from around the league in your Friday edition of Transaction Analysis.
I am puzzled by your suggestion that Steve Finley is now a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. The defensive metrics were unanimous about his 2003 defensive year. He was the worst everyday center fielder in the league, not that this is really surprising because he is the oldest. Is there something I’ve missed? Finley’s defensive decline is very important when combined with his offensive decline. He really doesn’t deserve an everyday job now. His hitting is not good enough to carry his D. Terrero deserves the job.
–M.G.
Thanks for the feedback. In point of fact, I didn’t say Finley was a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. I did say that he has a “good glove.” That, in my mind, isn’t tantamount to being the best. Finley’s last three seasonal Prospectus Fielding Runs ratings go -3, 5, 3. While he did have a sub-par year in the field last season, I’m not ready to call him Lonnie Smith just yet. Yes, he’s old, but there’s still only one year of data to support the idea that he’s not longer a capable glove man. According to Finley’s Davenport Translations, he’s 11 runs above average for his career as a center fielder.
As for the assertion that Finley was the worst defensive center fielder in the league last season, it simply doesn’t square with statistical realities. For instance, in the NL alone, Preston Wilson, Marlon Byrd, Juan Pierre, Craig Biggio, Scott Podsednik and Marquis Grissom all fared worse than Finley in terms of Fielding Runs. Additionally, non-qualifiers like Reggie Taylor and Ken Griffey Jr. also graded out below Finley with the glove.
And Finley doesn’t deserve an everyday job? I know quite a few teams that would go a week in burlap underwear for a shot at a center fielder who’s hitting .291/.359/.551 and in the final year of his contract. Sure he’s old and helped notably by his home park, but Finley remains a quality player, and it won’t surprise me if a contender scoops him up this summer.
BEST MATCHUP (Best combined records with both teams
being over .500): Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (62-41)
Here’s a round-up of Wednesday’s 6-5 victory over the
Orioles in which the Yankees only had three hits, as
brought to you by PESN (Pidgin English Sports
Network):
Yanqui gat stick. Nogat paitim. Paitim kam tripela
taim. Wokabaut sikis taim. Gat plet sikis taim. Pisin
losim sikis – faipela.
Taking an all-time great from a team is no guarantee
of immediate success against that team in the ensuing
season. The Yankees lost two of three in their first
meeting with Texas this year in the wake of getting
Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers.
On Wednesday I dicussed the prospects of some future stars. I also, inadvertedly, spent some time discussing the answers to some future trivia questions. I have no idea which ones are which, and–to be honest–neither does anyone else. One way or the other, though, it’s highly unlikely that any of them will have an effect on any of the 2004, 2005, or 2006 major league seasons. For the slightly shorter of attention out there, we’ll look at some guys today who are more likely to be in the majors in the near future.
It used to be that college relievers were valued on approximately the same level as minor league relievers, which is to say that they weren’t valued at all. Somewhere along the way, though, it was decided that it should be possible to take a good college reliever and go to the extreme end of the Earl Weaver Pitcher Development Method with him, tossing him into the big league bullpen after only a very short time in the minors. The three players from the 2003 draft who have seen action in the majors so far–Chad Cordero of the Expos, Ryan Wagner of the Reds, and David Aardsma of the Giants–have all been college-turned-pro closers. It’s worth noting that none of these clubs are particularly analytically-minded, and the results have been mixed, so it’ll be interesting to see how this trend plays out.
Where on Wednesday I tried to stick to guys likely to be drafted early, this is just a list of the best relievers available (with one or two oddball possibilities thrown in); with the possible exception of Huston Street, none of these guys are likely to pull in huge signing bonuses, so they may be signability picks at any point in the draft, or may fall to a later round. The odds are good that only one or two of these guys will see significant time in the next year with the big club, but the odds are also pretty good that the first guy to make it to the Show from the 2004 draft will be on this list.