Mark Grudzielanek made an early run at being this series’ Jose Cruz Jr. with two poor efforts in the ninth inning, one mental, one physical. On the first, when he bobbled a Luis Castillo ground ball and never did tag Juan Pierre, I don’t understand why he didn’t throw to second base for the force play. He had to know he’d blown the tag–great call by Fieldin Culbreth–and in that situation you must get one out. Not doing so was critical, because there’s a huge difference between two outs and two on, and one out and three on. The next play didn’t get the attention, but it highlighted the Cubs’ main problem coming into this series. Ivan Rodriguez hit a line drive past Grudzielanek that, had he just fallen down from where he stood, he might have caught and at least would have kept in the infield. The Cubs don’t play defense well. It hurt them last night, and it’s going to haunt them in every game of this series. Speaking of Rodriguez, when do you think word will get out that he can hit fastballs up and on the outside edge? Someone, somewhere, may wish to try a different approach. That, or kryptonite.
If anyone ever asks me why I love baseball, I can just replay them the inevitable playoff highlights from this postseason. We’re barely into the LCS and there are already more great moments than I can remember. Sure, as a Cubs fan, maybe I’m a bit more into it than normal, but not by much. With the Yankees/Sox starting up tonight, we can count on that always heated rivalry giving us something more to remember and likely someone earning a reputation as something… another Bill Buckner, another Bucky F. Dent, another Reggie Jackson. We’re never sure what, but we always know we’re going to see something amazing. This is why we love baseball and why it seems no one can make the game go wrong, no matter how much they try. I’m just glad I have FX and a split-screen.
On to the injuries…
The Yanks took far more balls per plate appearance than any other playoff team, but relatively few strikes. That’s a sign of a mature, disciplined team. Taking bad pitches could be especially beneficial against the Red Sox: Boston’s two best starters, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, are not known for their stamina, and the bullpen is in tatters between Byung-Hyun Kim’s breakdown and their heavy use in the Oakland series. Knocking Pedro out an inning earlier because of higher pitch counts could well be a game-winning strategy. Despite their refined approach at the plate, the Yankees don’t have a better offense than the Red Sox, who outscored them by nearly 100 runs during the regular season. The Sox remain the best offense in baseball, with a lineup that has absolutely no weaknesses in it. Both of these teams have the capability to knock a starter out early and put up crooked numbers in multiple innings. Even if you don’t want to get into the numbers, think only about the two main criticisms of these offenses over the course of the year: Yankees: “Alfonso Soriano isn’t suited to hit leadoff.” Red Sox: “Walker, Ortiz, and Nixon can’t hit lefties.” Think about that. The problem for the Yankees is that the leadoff guy has too many extra-base hits, and too few walks. The Red Sox somehow have to work around the issue that their three worst hitters, who average about a .950 OPS against righties, don’t hit lefties particularly well. Think the Tiger front office would like those problems?
There may be no glory in winning with a $100 million payroll, as Michael Lewis said last week on BPR, but I don’t think anyone in Red Sox Nation cares as much about glory as they do about beating the Yankees. The Yankees were hoping the A’s would pull things out with half their rotation on the shelf, while the Sox head into the ALCS with momentum, energy, and a wrath-of-God offense that Gary Huckabay so richly evoked in his ALDS preview.
Watching the brutal collision between Johnny Damon and Damian Jackson has me wondering why neither player could use the low-tech solution of calling for the ball, or why something more high-tech like headset communicators aren’t being implemented (think how fast the game could move if we could eliminate mound conferences). The collision clearly knocked Damon out for perhaps as long as two minutes, much more than what Marcus Giles suffered in his run-in with Mark Prior. Damon’s availability is in serious question, making Theo Epstein work hard as he readies his ALCS roster. Damon is likely to be available, but likely will miss at least the first two games in New York, giving the Sox a short bench. I’m also closely watching Jackson. I have absolutely no idea why the Sox sent him back out after clearly being concussed. Post-concussion syndrome is still a possibility for both players.
You contend that rundowns should never require more than one throw. A properly executed rundown requires two throws. One to place the ball ahead of the runner and then another to finish the runner off. You want to run the runner back towards the base he came from rather than forward. This is so that in case of a dropped throw the runner will not obtain the next base but only get back to the previous base he had before the rundown.
— JT
Say a pitcher fields a ball and has a runner caught between third and home. He should close the gap, sprinting directly at the runner. Actually, he should run a little towards the home plate side to encourage him back toward third, as you point out. Pitcher sprints, makes runner sprint, third baseman steps up, receives ball, tag is made, one throw.
Things get complicated when other runners are involved such as a rundown between first and second and then another runner takes off from third. But, in a single rundown, it should take one throw. Also, say a runner gets caught up due to a throw from the outfield. That is not the first throw of the rundown. Once the runner is between two players, one with the ball, he is in a rundown and it should take one throw.
What you mean, though, is that it was Chavez’s imperative to get the ball in the hands of the catcher so that they could then run Varitek from home towards third in case of an errant throw. This can be defended, but I contend that a proper rundown requires two fielders and a single throw. Getting the ball ahead of the runner simply for the sake of it adds an extra fielder, an extra throw and more time. Why complicate things and increase the chance of an error?
It’s the all-underdog series, where virtually everyone outside of the greater St. Louis and Miami metropolitan areas seem to be entertaining fuzzy Cubby thoughts. After all, the Cubs are supremely telegenic, feature a healthy dose of celebrity, and some of the best pitching on the planet. But there’s another organization in this series, one with a recent World Series win a couple of owners ago to its credit, something achieved with almost galling ease compared to the decades of North Side misery. Moreover, these latest Marlins are an interesting collection of homegrown talents, other people’s prospects, a rented superstar, and the definitive retreaded manager.
Much will be made of the fact that this is the fourth straight season in which the A’s lost in the Division Series, all of them in the final game. They’ve lost nine straight games in which they had a chance to eliminate their opponent, the kind of fact that can become an epitaph. I’m reluctant to make the leap from that fact to an indictment of the players’ character, however, because these are successful people who, like all of us, are more than our work. The rush to brand the A’s with all kinds of labels that assail their collective character is wrong. As you read what will be an avalanche of stories that glorify the Red Sox players and make the A’s out to be chokers, remember that it’s all media nonsense. The outcome of a baseball game, a series, or even multiple trips to the playoffs don’t define a man’s character, good or bad. The A’s lost because they played baseball poorly at the wrong times. Is their baserunning a problem? It would seem so, but remember that this A’s team allowed the fewest runs in the league and scored the sixth-fewest. They played a lot of close games, and if their baserunning was such a problem, it would stand to reason that it would have shown up in their record. The A’s didn’t just do this to themselves, however. They also lost because the Red Sox played good baseball.
As I’ve previously written, a good way to judge the efficiency of a team’s front office is to compare the amount it spends on players to the number of wins it registers beyond that which could be attained by fielding a replacement-level club on which everyone earned the major league minimum salary. To compute this, I’ve assumed that a replacement-level club would play .300 ball, which translates to 48.6 wins in a 162-game season. A club’s “marginal wins” thus equals ((winning percentage -.300) x 162). For marginal payroll, the baseline assumes a 25-man active roster and three-man DL with everyone earning the major league minimum of $300,000, which would produce a payroll of $8,400,000. As several people have reminded me, the 2003 Tigers broke the formula. Their 43-119 record is worse than I had thought possible–the first team in 40 years to finish with a sub-.300 winning percentage. How bad were the Tigers? Compare them to the last two clubs to lose as many as 110 games: the Montreal Expos and San Diego Padres, who both finished 52-110 (.321) in their inaugural season of 1969.
Jason Schmidt took a lot of, well, rhymes with “Schmidt” on Saturday when he didn’t take the ball for Game Four. We soon learned why: Schmidt has pitched since early August with a torn flexor tendon. Surgery will be necessary to correct this, and the procedure was actually recommended back in August. After consultations with several orthopedists, Schmidt elected to continue pitching after being advised he could not exacerbate the injury. This injury is very similar to one suffered by Robb Nen at the end of the 1999 season. After having surgery on Oct. 7, 1999, Nen was able to return for Spring Training with minor limitations and went on to have a phenomenal 2000 season. The outlook is good for Schmidt’s 2004, a season one hopes will come without the questions about his fortitude. Tim Hudson left Game Four of the Sox-A’s series after only one inning with an injury, alternately described as a hip flexor and as a strained oblique. Hudson will have an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the injury, which sources tell me is a strained oblique. Hudson will not be available for Game Five, but the MRI will determine when–or if–Hudson would be available, assuming there are games he’d need to be available for.
If the shot of Ugueth Urbina tackling Ivan Rodriguez as Rodriguez holds up a baseball in triumph isn’t on the front page of Sports Illustrated and every other sports publication next week, just fire all the editors. That was one of the single greatest pictures I’ve ever seen in sports, an amazing display of joy. Just remembering that whole sequence gives me chills as I sit here and write about it 12 hours later…the arc of the baseball looping into left field, as J.T. Snow tries to find second gear…Jeff Conine getting rid of the ball quickly…Rich Aurilia desperately waving Snow to the inside of home plate…the collision…Rodriguez tumbling back, gripping the baseball…Snow dropping his head to the plate in disappointment…Urbina diving onto his teammate… I’m not sure Rodriguez still isn’t holding that baseball. He may show up with it in his hand on Tuesday. Heck, he may show up with it at his Hall of Fame induction.
In the Oakland sixth, Ramon Hernandez chops one past Nomar Garciaparra. The runner on second, Miguel Tejada rounds third, but is obstructed by third baseman Bill Mueller. This is rule 7.06b–a play is not being made on the obstructed runner–and again third base umpire Bill Welke did everything right. He points to the location of obstruction with one hand and shouts “Obstruction.” He does not throw two hands up in the air repeatedly signaling a dead ball. It may seem like a confusing distinction, but they are very distinct and again, it is not unreasonable to expect a player, especially a professional, to know the rules of the game he plays. Tejada, though, assumes this obstruction is the same as the obstruction he witnessed innings before. Unfortunately, he is wrong. The play is not dead and no bases are awarded. The play is ongoing and it is the responsibility of all players, offensive and defensive, to continue the play to its end. I have heard arguments that calling Tejada out was the easy way out for the umps with an obvious scapegoat. I disagree. Tejada being put out was due to his own ignorance of the rules, indefensible for a professional, but probably the norm. Tejada’s ignorance is also not something the umps have to compensate for…”Well, he thought the play was over. That is why he stopped. We should give him home.” Sorry, no dice. Tejada’s job is to finish the play. If he is safe, well then, he is safe. If he is called out, it is in the umpire’s judgment whether he would have been safe if for the obstruction and if so, the umpire will overturn the out due to the obstruction.
The Giants deserved to lose.
I haven’t written that kind of condemnation more than a couple of times in my life, but I have also never meant it more. The Giants played brutal baseball Friday afternoon, making poor decisions, executing routine plays poorly, and showing a complete inability to have good at-bats in game-critical situations.
In the wake of the loss, the focus is on Jose Cruz Jr., whose Little League drop of a fly ball in the 11th inning started the Marlins’ game-winning rally. When I think of Cruz, though, I think of his at-bat in the top of the inning. The Marlins intentionally walked Neifi Perez to load the bases–no, I couldn’t believe it, myself–and bring up Cruz down with the Marlins down 3-2 with one out. Cruz’s mandate in that situation was clear: find a way to bring in an insurance run. He was facing Braden Looper, whose command had been shaky from the first batter he faced, and whose only out had been recorded on a sacrifice. Given the matchups and the skills of the players involved, it seemed certain that the Giants would add to their lead.
Cruz hacked away at the first pitch and missed, then took a 1-1 cookie–the Giants took more hanging breaking balls in this game than I thought imaginable–to fall behind before chopping a grounder to Derrek Lee, who calmly got the force at home. J.T. Snow then grounded to second, ending the rally. Twenty minutes later, bedlam ensured when a winning run that perhaps should have been a tying run crossed home plate.
“What are the best and worst things about the broadcasts so far?” – M.T. So far, it’s been pretty grisly from a fan’s perspective, I think. The 10 p.m. EDT start for the Hudson/Martinez matchup was unconscionable. Then, to add unbelievable insult to injury, ESPN adds David Justice to the broadcast booth in violation of the Geneva Convention. I know that everyone watching the game has probably done something during their lives that warrants strict and painful punishment, but inflicting Justice and his commentary on an unsuspecting public was beyond the pale. It’s also possible, if the game was broadcast outside the U.S., that ESPN may have committed an act of war against a number of sovereign nations. But now that they’ve done that, they might as well finish us off with a healthy dose of Chris Berman and his old-10-years-ago nicknames. Should Justice return to the booth, I will personally make an appeal to Amnesty International to begin a letter-writing campaign. I’m pretty sure that if we work together, we can get Bono to make a mission of conscience to Bristol.
The Braves get a PECOTA mini-evaluation. Shannon Stewart is somehow getting support as AL MVP. And Aubrey Huff gets recognition for a job well done. All this and much more news from Atlanta, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Ever watch a particular at-bat early in the game and know you’re seeing the pivotal moment? That’s how I felt in the third inning of yesterday’s A’s/Red Sox game. Down 5-0 after gift-wrapping four runs in the bottom of the second, the Sox picked up back-to-back doubles and a walk to cut the lead to 5-1 and place two runners aboard with one out. Todd Walker grounded to first, setting up a Barry Zito/Manny Ramirez battle. This was going to be it. Either the Sox were going to cut the lead to a manageable 5-3, with Ramirez atoning for his brutal misplay of Eric Byrnes’ second-inning fly ball and Zito displaying the inconsistency that had dogged him throughout the year, or the A’s were going to escape with a four-run lead and having turned back the Sox’s attempt to recover from the second inning. When Ramirez flied out to left, the game felt over. It was. The Sox picked up just four singles the rest of the way, with Zito abusing every hitter in the lineup by changing speeds and wielding a Shelley Long-after-"Cheers" curveball.
Sox fans, how’s that 10 p.m. start working out for you?
I had no problem with MLB giving the A’s a postseason home game at night for the first time since, well, maybe ever. That said, I do think the AL playoff structure as a whole is pretty ridiculous. The Yankees and Twins ended up with about 52 hours between the end of their first game and the beginning of their second. The A’s and Sox will have about 13 hours. That’s not fair, and it’s the direct result of letting TV considerations override common sense. You can give the A’s a night game or you can give the Yankees and Twins the off day; you can’t do both.
As so often happens with things Selig, whatever could go wrong, did. The A’s and Sox played 12 innings in a shade under five hours, ending just before 3 a.m. EDT. Worse still for Sox fans, the game ended in defeat, as Ramon Hernandez laid down a perfect two-out, bases-loaded bunt to drive home the winning run, this after the Sox had blown a ninth-inning lead.
Those who stuck it out saw an exciting ballgame. It wasn’t the much-anticipated pitchers’ duel, and it wasn’t exactly a great game, but it was exciting. Todd Walker and Erubiel Durazo traded roundhouse punches for most of the night, with each player coming up a hero against a southpaw. The two starting pitchers were off their game, combining to allow six runs on 16 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work. Pedro Martinez wasn’t himself, striking out just three batters and allowing four walks.