The new Hall of Fame Veterans Committee didn’t elect anyone this year, despite having a number of excellent candidates in Ron Santo, Minnie Minoso, and the always-controversial Dick Allen. Because of this, it’s likely that the rules will be tweaked in the future, lowering the threshold for induction. Never mind the fact that the Hall of Fame has much bigger problems on its hands, small induction classes mean small revenue for the folks in Cooperstown, New York. The more serious issues will have to wait.
And the serious issues I’m referring to? How about the fact that the Hall of Fame needs to tweak its electorate as well as its rules in the future? Comments by some of the voters have made it clear that the Hall of Fame would be better served by new voters.
Brad Kullman enters his 14th season in baseball and his first as Assistant General Manager of the Cincinnati Reds after an off-season promotion. While the Reds stand to dramatically boost their revenue stream with the opening of Great American Ballpark, Kullman hopes to boost his stock as a future GM candidate working alongside General Manager Jim Bowden. Kullman recently chatted with BP about his love for the four-man rotation, the Reds’ proprietary defensive rating system, and the challenges of outsmarting the competition.
As a political animal, I usually find myself on the side of the libertarians. As such, the debate surrounding the ban of ephedra had me on both sides of the argument quickly. While my stated position that ephedra and other performance enhancing drugs–effective or ineffective, legal or illegal–has no place in baseball or any sport, I also know that the market should be free to the utmost extent and that ban or not, players will likely use a substance anyway. Watching “Fear Factor” tonight, I saw not one, but two ads for products–Stacker 2 and Hydroxycut–that are suddenly promoting themselves as “ephedra-free.” This brings up two points: that the market will move from one product to another as quickly as possible when there are widely perceived negatives that could impact sales, and that as fast as we ban one product, another similar product will pop up in its place. As satisfying as it might be for MLB to drop a ban on ephedra at all levels and as good a PR move as it might be, in the end, it probably won’t solve anything. Education, in my opinion, remains our best hope.
That I was wrong just brings the real issue into sharper focus: I’m not
supposed to be making these judgments. Don’t get me wrong, I know baseball. I
played the game, and just about every variant of it, for many years, and I
watch as much of the game as anybody you’ll find. (Just ask Sophia.) But my
talent isn’t in observing, and when I let my eyes make decisions for me, I end
up doing silly things like projecting the A’s to finish behind the Rangers and
Mariners.
Now playing right field for the Cards: Dane Iorg! Joe Roa could be the Phillies’ ace by Opening Day. Dan Wright: crappy pitcher or crappy injured pitcher? And Will Carroll vs. arrogance in a 12-round title fight.
The good news is that Tony Womack is healthy!
The better news is that this team is really just two men and that their effectiveness almost completely determines the course of the Diamondbacks season. As much as pitch counts, inning workloads, and almost every other measure of pitcher abuse wants to push Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to the shelf, they continue to dominate. Given a modicum of support, these two will put up incredible numbers, and there’s no reason to believe that either will collapse. The yellow lights are up there to remind you that at some point, all good things come to an end. One or both might have a spectacular flameout and, like the Red Sox in 2001, a team built around pitching can collapse quickly. Schilling had a slight loss in both velocity and effectiveness at the end of 2002. Surprisingly, he admitted he was tired, but blamed it on a weight increase rather than workload. Schilling looked great in Nashville this winter when he met up with UTK. If anything, the fade late last year might force Bob Brenly to back off a bit. Backing off however might not be possible if the D-Backs hope to return to the playoffs.
Jeff Austin’s journey from high draft pick to Don Gullett experiment. Bruce Chen tries to remember which two teams he hasn’t pitched for yet. Brian Lawrence can now afford that new hammer he’s been eyeing. And Dave Nilsson gets a hearty Chris Kahrl “good on ya, mate.”
In Part One, I took a walk through the big fielding stats: errors and fielding percentage, Range Factor, and Defensive Average/Zone Rating. Here, we’ll talk about three of the more advanced fielding statistics: Pete Palmer’s Fielding Runs, Clay Davenport’s Fielding Translations, and Bill James’ Win Shares.
Gary Huckabay goes head-to-head with a reader on the issue of performance-enhancing drugs, sets home improvement back a century, and looks forward to hazing BP’s three new interns.
Getting right into it tonight–I’ve taken on some customer service duties here at BP, and Jonah and Ryan will kill me if this gets any later! OK, honestly, I need to watch the last half of Survivor on TiVo. (BTW, if anyone has any experience with wireless home networks, please drop me an email and tell me how tough it would be to set one up linking my computer, TiVo, and the Gateway laptop I’m dreaming of. Maybe if I keep saying Gateway here and on the radio, I’ll get product.)
On March 4th, UTK included a reference to another injury analyst that should not have made it into publication. The statement was made with the intention of showing the genesis of my column, and not to disparage the ability or integrity of anyone else in the field, and I sincerely apologize for the remarks in question. Furthermore, let me go on the record and state that I have the utmost respect for the contributions and integrity of others in the field whose work inspired me in the first place.
What happens when a mild-mannered columnist gets involved with a group of
fire-breathing fantasy baseball experts? Confusion, puzzlement, and Alex
Gonzalez for $7. Joe Sheehan reports from the Rotowire Staff League fantasy
auction.
Six years ago, in Baseball Prospectus 1997, I wrote an article on the subject of “pitching to the score.” After some careful research, I concluded that there was no evidence that any pitcher in recent times had demonstrated a clear ability to win or lose games that was not based on how many runs they allowed in the context they were pitching. In that article, I primarily focused on those pitchers who had been labeled “winners” in recent years because they often sported excellent won-loss records despite mediocre ERAs. I looked at Jack Morris, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Dave Stewart, Dave Stieb, Jose DeLeon, Catfish Hunter, and Sandy Koufax, and found that none of them demonstrated any pattern of winning more games than one would expect from their runs allowed totals.
Felipe Alou and his ill-founded love for Marquis Grissom. Dusty Baker and his ill-founded love for Eric Karros. Bob Brenly and his ill-founded love for Matt Mantei. Special guest appearances by Nigel Wilson, Chris Tremie and Sherman Obando. Plus Joe needs your roto help.
Fernando Vina: Buff Bagwell impersonator or innocent second base collision victim? Roy Oswalt: Cy Young candidate or huge injury risk? And your jumble word of the day is IDKCYA.
There are signs that teams “get it.” I don’t think it’s any secret that the Blue Jays are one of the teams that get it. Sprung from the brain of the Athletics like Athena, the front office put together by J.P. Ricciardi can compete with the braintrust of any team. Despite revenue problems, hamstrung by contracts written in a bygone era, and having to play in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays definitely “get it” and are headed for success.
Do day games really set the Cubs up for failure? To answer the question, I consulted Retrosheet game logs for each game played from 1997 to 2001 (Retrosheet doesn’t have the 2002 data ready just yet). The first series of numbers I ran looked at every team except for the Cubs, with data broken down between day and night games, as well as various permutations on what the team’s schedule had been like on the previous day (afternoon game on the road, and so forth). In the table below, I’ve provided the home team’s winning percentage based on each condition.