2009

Shawn Estes\' battery died several years ago, and he\'s been coasting downhill ever since. After signing him as a free agent, the Dodgers will become the latest in a series of teams to pop his clutch and wait in vain for some sign of ignition.

2007

Shawn Estes missed nearly all of the 2006 season with elbow trouble that culminated in Tommy John surgery in June; while he re-signed for 2007, don`t expect to see him before August, if then.

2006

Since 1998, his ERA is 4.98; only five other pitchers have a higher ERA over that span. It ain`t all park effects either; Estes is just not very good. His strikeout rate hit a career low last year. This may have been due to a foot injury, but if not he may have crossed the terminus from `bad but within the limits of tolerable pain` to `Paris Hilton.` Good news for potential employers: he pitched well away from home (3.00 ERA vs. 6.35 in Arizona). If you`re the team that`s signing him, you`re probably used to looking for crumbs of hope like that one.

2005

One thing you need to get used to if you're going to make business decisions in extreme environments is distorted numbers. Estes' ERA for the year was 5.84, which would be absolutely horrible just about anywhere else. But the Equivalent ERA is only 5.10, so Estes wasn't absolutely abysmal, merely lousy. It's an important distinction. Aside from poor walk, strikeout, hit, and home run numbers, everything else about Estes screams "Cy Young Candidate."

2004

Estes is to Cubs fans what Chan Ho Park is to Ranger fans, or Kenny G to jazz enthusiasts. What success he'd had in the past was driven by pitching in big ballparks: between 2000 and 2002, Estes gave up just eight gopherballs per 500 plate appearances, including exactly zero in 15 starts at Pac Bell in 2001. At Wrigley Field, Estes had no such luxury, and the rising home run rate combined with his shoddy control and unimpressive fastball produced a rank season. Dusty Baker stuck with him for far too long, and the Cubs were fortunate that this act of loyalty didn't cost them the pennant. Mercifully, he was non-tendered.

2003

Has anybody ever milked more mileage out of six good months than Estes’s 1997? Since then he has lost five miles off of his fastball and logged one season that could even be considered average. In an act of desperation last August, Cincinnati surrendered four Grade C prospects to the Mets for six pre-paid weeks of Estes’s services. The relationship quickly deteriorated to where Boone skipped Estes’s final three turns in the rotation. Estes is a free agent and neither he nor the Reds have any interest in trying to rekindle the flames. The Cubs will pay him $3 million in 2003, as Estes continues to deceive his employers, but he’s back to pitching for Dusty.

2002

His strikeout rate has deteriorated to the point that his ability to stay in a rotation will come into question. He simply hasn't been the same since his excellent 1997 season, managing 200 innings just once since then. He's never missed a year, just been battling nagging injuries on a constant basis. Shea Stadium will help him; a year off might help more.

2001

Shawn Estes and Dusty Baker seem to have come to an agreement. Baker doesn't completely shred his arm, and Estes responds by throwing 190-200 consistent, dependable innings. Estes has very good stuff that induces a whole bunch of ground balls to Jeff Kent. If his strikeout rate was about 10% higher, he'd be a tremendous breakout candidate, particularly in that home park. Estes has had a history of twinges in his elbow and shoulder that forced him to miss a start here and there. I sometimes wonder if some guys save their careers that way, while "tough guys" end up on Dr. James Andrews's Christmas card list.

2000

His up-and-down season earned him the nickname "Sybil" among some Giants fans. Estes put together a fine run from late July through mid-September, culminating in a four-hit shutout of the Marlins, then ruined it with a 10.20 ERA in his last three starts. Estes will never have consistent success until he eliminates at least one walk per nine innings.

1999

Now he's had his first serious arm problems. Will he come back? He was mostly awful in a September return (four bad outings and one beautiful 1-0 loss to the Dodgers), but he struck out 21 men in 23 innings. More important, though, he still has trouble with his control; he could use a few lessons from Mark Gardner.

1998

If you look through these translations, you’ll find plenty of signs that Estes was going to be a good one. If you want to find evidence for a fall, you might look at the walk rate, which wasn’t very good last year, or his workload: he’s thrown almost 600 innings the past three years and he just turned 25.

1997

The one name that came up a lot when people shopped actual first base talent to the Giants, and Bob Quinn turned them away as fast as they came. Probably the staff ace at the start of the 1997 season, and barring idiocy by the Giants in handling him, he should have a long and productive career. Of course, with pitchers you never really know. Careers are fragile things. One minute you’re watching Eric Davis wave ineffectually, the next minute you’re on Frank Jobe’s Christmas card list.

1996

Might get called up mid-season if everything falls apart. On a scale of 1-10, he's a 7. If his control vanishes again, he could languish in the minors for another 15 years. If not, he could be real good. That 1991 line was fairly scary. 55 walks in 34 innings in A Ball. Anyone have a theory on that?