Overton will be an interesting nature versus nurture test case. His body is not one that’s typically built to last 200 innings a year, and his velocity a couple years after Tommy John surgery still isn’t anywhere close to some pre-injury reports I’ve seen. The natural stuff adds up to a fringe-average package highlighted by what projects to be an excellent change-up with good drop and an advanced feel for consistent execution. But he’s developed a loose, repeatable delivery that utilizes his positive assets (length and flexibility) well, and he gets around at least some of the limited strength by generating strong downhill momentum with a rhythmic pendulum push off the rubber.

There’s an intelligence evident in his approach, but his size and average fastball leave him little margin for error as he develops. His breaking ball’s lack of projection makes it tough to project a useful bullpen niche as a fallback. He’ll need to be able to consistently work off 60 or better command if he’s going to have a shot as a starter, and while the mechanics suggest that’s not an impossible or even unlikely outcome, it’s also a volatile profile with a ceiling limited to the back end of a rotation. The ingredients of a command/control southpaw are here, but there's a higher degree of risk than your typical "polished" college arm.