<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" > <channel> <title>gordon beckham Archives | Baseball Prospectus</title> <atom:link href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/tag/gordon-beckham/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/tag/gordon-beckham/</link> <description>Insightful analysis for the discerning baseball fan</description> <lastBuildDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2019 05:47:17 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <item> <title>Transaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46724/transaction-analysis-weekly-roundup-4/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Ginny Searle]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2019 11:00:37 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Carlos Torres]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Colin Rea]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cristhian Adames]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Danny Farquhar]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Hector Sanchez]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ichiro suzuki]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Jared Miller]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Josh Thole]]></category> <category><![CDATA[kaleb cowart]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Miguel Almonte]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oliver Drake]]></category> <category><![CDATA[parker bridwell]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Tim Tebow]]></category> <category><![CDATA[tommy milone]]></category> <category><![CDATA[travis snider]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Tyler Goeddel]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Zach McAllister]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.baseballprospectus.com/?p=46724</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>All the transactions fit to print.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46724/transaction-analysis-weekly-roundup-4/">Transaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="pmpro_content_message">This content is for Premium, Super-Premium, and Premium Monthly members only. Visit the site and log in/register to read.</div> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46724/transaction-analysis-weekly-roundup-4/">Transaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Transaction Analysis: Major Minors</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31289/transaction-analysis-major-minors/</link> <comments>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31289/transaction-analysis-major-minors/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Gleeman]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 03 Mar 2017 06:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[baltimore orioles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Chicago Cubs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Angels]]></category> <category><![CDATA[mat latos]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pedro Strop]]></category> <category><![CDATA[San Francisco Giants]]></category> <category><![CDATA[toronto blue jays]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Vidal Nuno]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Yusmeiro Petit]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31289</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Pedro Strop signs an extension with the Cubs and minor-league deals galore for Mat Latos, Gordon Beckham, and Yusmeiro Petit.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31289/transaction-analysis-major-minors/">Transaction Analysis: Major Minors</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td class=left> <b><a name=top><font size=4>IN THIS ISSUE</font></a></b> </td> </tr> </table> <p><a name="top"></a></p> <table width=100% border=0> <tr> <td width=50% valign=top class=left> <font face=arial> <center><b>American League</b></center> </p> <ul> <li><a href="#ANA">Anaheim Angels</a></li> <li><a href="#BAL">Baltimore Orioles</a></li> <li><a href="#TOR">Toronto Blue Jays</a></li> </ul> <p> </font> </td> <td width=50% valign=top class=left> <font face=arial> <center><b>National League</b></center></p> <ul> <li><a href="#CHN">Chicago Cubs</a></li> <li><a href="#SFN">San Francisco Giants</a></li> </ul> <p></font></td> </tr> </table> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=ANA><img src='/images/team/50x50/ana.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=ANA><font size=4>ANAHEIM ANGELS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=ANA'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=ANA'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=ANA'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Yusmeiro+Petit">Yusmeiro Petit</a></span> to a minor-league contract. [2/8]</em></p> <p>Washington declined its $3 million option on Petit in November and three months later he could manage only a minor-league deal that will reportedly pay slightly over $2 million if he makes the Opening Day roster. He’s seemingly a good bet to do so, if only because of his veteran-ness and ability to shift between the rotation and the bullpen as needed.</p> <p>Petit tops out in the high-80s with his fastball and gives up too many fly balls to be truthworthy, but that’s been the case since his days as a stat-head favorite prospect. His curveball remains a plus offering and he posted a 4.03 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> in 62 innings for the Nationals last season, which is basically par for the course. Petit isn’t an exciting addition and at age 32 he’s walking a fine line between useful and washed up, but the Angels can use the decent depth. —<a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/author/aaron_gleeman">Aaron Gleeman</a></p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BAL><img src='/images/team/50x50/bal.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=BAL><font size=4>BALTIMORE ORIOLES</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BAL'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=BAL'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=BAL'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Acquired LHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60488">Vidal Nuno</a></span> from <span class="teamdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=LAN" target="blank">Los Angeles Dodgers</a></span> in exchange for RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108988">Ryan Moseley</a></span>. [2/19]</em></p> <p>This makes four trades in three years for Nuno, whom the Dodgers acquired in November for <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Carlos+Ruiz">Carlos Ruiz</a></span> and then signed to a one-year, $1.25 million deal to avoid arbitration. Prior to that he was dealt from the Yankees to the Diamondbacks for <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45558">Brandon McCarthy</a></span> in mid-2014 and from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners, along with <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46716">Mark Trumbo</a></span>, for four players in mid-2015.</p> <p>It’s easy to see why he’s well-traveled; Nuno is a left-hander without great raw stuff and is probably best suited for the bullpen. He’s also had decent success along the way, throwing 329 innings with a 4.02 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> and 4.63 DRA. That includes a 3.15 ERA and 95/20 K/BB ratio in 100 innings as a reliever, although Nuno’s struggles against right-handed power hitters mean he’s just barely usable as more than a situational southpaw.</p> <p>Baltimore is likely looking at him as staff-filling depth able to step into the back of the rotation or the middle of the bullpen, but because Nuno still has a minor-league option remaining it’s possible he’ll begin his age-29 season at Triple-A. —Aaron Gleeman</p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=TOR><img src='/images/team/50x50/tor.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=TOR><font size=4>TORONTO BLUE JAYS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=TOR'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=TOR'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=TOR'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56580">Mat Latos</a></span> to a minor-league contract. [2/16]</em></p> <p>Time waits for no pitcher. It ignores sparkling the DRAs of years past and can turn even the best of them into organization filler on minor-league contracts in the time it takes for a two-term presidency to come and go. Such is Mat Latos. Once of consecutive 200-inning seasons, but now of surrendering a <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> perilously close to .300 and trying to crack the Blue Jays' staff on a non-guaranteed deal.</p> <p>If he can merit an addition to the 25-man roster he’ll get $1.5 million with another cool half-million due in potential performance bonuses. This will depend on Latos’ health, as he has not avoided the DL very successfully since he was still with the Reds, to say nothing for cracking a talented rotation. There’s some possibility of making it out of the bullpen, but that’s a role he’s been used in only sparingly. In a very small sample, the Nationals used him as a reliever after acquiring him last season and Latos showed bits of promise with a 9.3 K/9, but ultimately still struggled to keep runners off of the bases. —Jared Wyllys</p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHN><img src='/images/team/50x50/chn.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=CHN><font size=4>CHICAGO CUBS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHN'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=CHN'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=CHN'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46719">Pedro Strop</a></span> to a one-year, $5.85 million contract extension. [2/24]</em></p> <p>The 2016 Cubs were built on a plethora of strengths and a plethora of things that went right for them. Offensive depth helped absorb <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57396">Jason Heyward</a></span>’s season-long slump and the loss of <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103751">Kyle Schwarber</a></span> so early in the season. Farm system depth allowed them to acquire <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a></span> in July, who proved especially useful when Pedro Strop and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52251">Hector Rondon</a></span> struggled with late-season injuries and ineffectiveness.</p> <p>This winter the Cubs have further stockpiled relievers and the most recent step in that process was extending Strop through 2018, plus a $6.25 million team option for 2019. Though he struggled some upon returning from injury in the fall and was sparsely used in the postseason while Joe Maddon leaned on Chapman rather heavily, there is no reason to expect that Strop won’t, or can’t, return to form in 2017.</p> <p>Strop has a 3.07 DRA in 340 career innings, including a 2.50 DRA and 60/15 K/BB ratio in 47 innings last season. He should continue to thrive as a setup man in the seventh and eighth innings. The Cubs' relievers capable of throwing those innings have made that spot in the bullpen crowded, however. Carl Edwards Jr., <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=44014">Koji Uehara</a></span>, and Rondon each stand to grab some looks in the late innings, so however the roles shake out the Cubs have built depth to make the latter third of close games especially aggravating to opposing offenses. —Jared Wyllys</p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SFN><img src='/images/team/50x50/sfn.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=SFN><font size=4>SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SFN'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=SFN'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=SFN'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed INF-R <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58057">Gordon Beckham</a></span> to a minor-league contract. [2/8]</em></p> <p>The name probably still makes White Sox fans reflexively shiver because, after just 59 games in the minors in 2009, Beckham earned a call-up and dazzled. After that? It took him just over three full seasons to match his 2.5 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> total of that rookie year.</p> <p>Now, after the Giants traded for him very late in the 2016 season, they have retained Beckham as a part of their apparent desire to stockpile aging and struggling middle infielders. Given the presence of <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=109151">Jae-gyun Hwang</a></span> on the Giants' roster, Beckham is an acquisition that feels like getting an insurance policy for your insurance policy.</p> <p>He has the potential to be a positive addition defensively, provided that he can post <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> numbers like he did in 2014, when he spent most of his time at second base. He can also fill in at third and, in a pinch, shortstop, but second is where San Francisco would get the most out of his glove. —Jared Wyllys</p> <p></p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31289/transaction-analysis-major-minors/">Transaction Analysis: Major Minors</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31289/transaction-analysis-major-minors/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> </item> <item> <title>Transaction Analysis: Getting Into De Fratus</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/27977/transaction-analysis-getting-into-de-fratus/</link> <comments>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/27977/transaction-analysis-getting-into-de-fratus/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[R.J. Anderson]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2015 06:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Brayan Pena]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Nori Aoki]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Peter Bourjos]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27977</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>The Braves and Mariners keep making moves, Matt Klentak could get used to having 40-man spots open, and the Cards finally get a competent backup for Yadi.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/27977/transaction-analysis-getting-into-de-fratus/">Transaction Analysis: Getting Into De Fratus</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td class=left> <b><a name=top><font size=4>IN THIS ISSUE</font></a></b> </td> </tr> </table> <p><a name="top"></a></p> <table width=100% border=0> <tr> <td width=50% valign=top class=left> <font face=arial> <center><b>American League</b></center> </p> <ul> <li><a href="#BOS">Boston Red Sox</a></li> <li><a href="#SEA">Seattle Mariners</a></li> </ul> <p> </font> </td> <td width=50% valign=top class=left> <font face=arial> <center><b>National League</b></center></p> <ul> <li><a href="#ATL">Atlanta Braves</a></li> <li><a href="#PHI">Philadelphia Phillies</a></li> <li><a href="#SLN">St. Louis Cardinals</a></li> </ul> <p></font></td> </tr> </table> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BOS><img src='/images/team/50x50/bos.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=BOS><font size=4>BOSTON RED SOX</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BOS'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=BOS'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=BOS'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed OF-R <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Young">Chris Young</a></span> to a two-year deal worth $13 million. [11/30]</em></p> <p>Coming off an inspired season in New York, Young nets a multi-year deal from the Yankees' top rivals. Just how will the Red Sox deploy him? You'd hope, for his sake and theirs, as a platoon bat. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=243">Joe Girardi</a></span> had Young face lefties in a career-high 49 percent of his plate appearances, and the results confirmed what anyone with access to Baseball-Reference already suspected: he's best when he isn't exposed to righties. The Red Sox presumably intend to have Young split an outfield post with Jackie Bradley Jr., whose reverse splits figure to correct in time. Trades and poor performances could change the specifics of that plan, obviously, but it's hard to see Boston handing Young an everyday job right away, if at all.</p> </p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SEA><img src='/images/team/50x50/sea.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=SEA><font size=4>SEATTLE MARINERS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SEA'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=SEA'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=SEA'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed OF-L <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51312">Nori Aoki</a></span> to a one-year deal with a club option; Signed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55795">Justin De Fratus</a></span> to a big-league deal. [12/2]</em></p> <p><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16969">Jerry Dipoto</a></span> adds an outfielder to the M's collection for the third time this winter, having already lassoed <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36436">Franklin Gutierrez</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=54187">Leonys Martin</a></span>.</p> <p> Aoki was a late addition to the free-agent pool, as the Giants waited until the day before the market opened to decline his club option. Nevertheless, he's a sensible pick for the Mariners, who wanted another everyday outfielder. While Aoki lacks the power production normally associated with a corner-outfield spot, his contact and on-base abilities make him a good fit near the top of an order. He's not the most efficient basestealer or defender around, and there's a chance he suffers some age-related attrition during his age-34 season. But barring a total collapse, he looks like another solid get for Dipoto.</p> <p> De Fratus opted for free agency in October after the Phillies outrighted him to the minors. Whereas his 2014 instilled hope that he'd improved his control, his 2015 put things back into their natural order. The Mariners have traded a few veteran relievers already this offseason, so you can figure out why they're bringing in an experienced arm with recent (albeit limited) big-league success. Don't be surprised if De Fratus cracks the Opening Day bullpen, nor if he's used primarily against right-handed batters.</p> </p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=ATL><img src='/images/team/50x50/atl.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=ATL><font size=4>ATLANTA BRAVES</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=ATL'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=ATL'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=ATL'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jim+Johnson">Jim Johnson</a></span> to a one-year deal worth $2.5 million. [11/30]; Signed INF-R <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58057">Gordon Beckham</a></span> to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million. [12/2]</em></p> <p>If at first you succeed, try again. Johnson signs with the Braves for the second consecutive winter, this time for slightly more money than he received last go around. His poor run with the Dodgers obscured it, but he enjoyed a quality stint with the Braves: he threw strikes with his mid-90s sinker, generated grounders, and looked like a tolerable late-inning arm. Everything went downhill following the trade (he allowed eight more runs out west than he had in Atlanta despite throwing 30 fewer innings), yet the stakes here are so low that it almost doesn't matter. Johnson could well get moved at the deadline again if he returns to form under <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18247">Roger McDowell</a></span>'s watch. Otherwise? Oh well. It was worth a shot.</p> <p>Consider it a testament to Beckham's good hair that he continues to land big-league job after big-league job, even when his performance suggests his employment is unmerited. His latest gig comes with his home-state Braves, who figure to use him in a platoon at second base alongside <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69854">Jace Peterson</a></span>. The catch here is that, while Beckham is better against southpaws than Peterson is, he's nothing too special so far as right-handed mashers go. (His multi-year True Average, for reference, is .249.) Obviously the Braves have little incentive to invest significant money in a short-side platoon player, so perhaps the goal in mind was simply to improve over <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45898">Pedro Ciriaco</a></span>. If so, consider this a mission accomplished.</p> </p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=PHI><img src='/images/team/50x50/phi.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=PHI><font size=4>PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=PHI'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=PHI'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=PHI'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Claimed RHP <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67050">Michael Mariot</a></span> off waivers from the Royals. [11/30]; Claimed OF-R <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50054">Peter Bourjos</a></span> off waivers from the Cardinals. [12/2]</em></p> <p>Think Matt Klentak values having choices? Mariot fits the same mold as many of the Phillies' other recent bullpen adds: his profile is nothing special—a short right-hander with a low-to-mid-90s fastball whose Triple-A brilliance hasn't yet carried to the Show—but he's set to make the league minimum and he has an option remaining. Collect enough of these, you figure, and one or two will land on the good side of the fence that separates up-and-down arms from legit middle relievers. The Phillies aren't going to fly or cry based on their 'pen in 2016, so sure, whatever. At least folks can make hotel jokes.</p> <p>It's not a wonderful time to be Bourjos. He's closing in on free agency and his 30th birthday alike, yet he just suffered through the worst offensive season of his big-league career—that's saying something, considering the subject at hand. Still, the Phillies' decision to add him is understandable. Bourjos remains a high-quality fielder who could well split time in left field with <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69512">Cody Asche</a></span>—if not in a straight left-right platoon, then at least as the designated late-inning defensive sub. Factor in his cost (he'll make $2 million this season) and he'll suffice as an extra outfielder on a rebuilding team.</p> </p> <p> <table border=0 width=100% cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr> <td><a href=https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SLN><img src='/images/team/50x50/sln.gif' height='50' width='50'></td> <td><b><a name=SLN><font size=4>ST. LOUIS CARDINALS</font></a></b><br /><a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SLN'>Team Audit</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/index.php?tm=SLN'>Player Cards</a> | <a href='https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/?tm=SLN'>Depth Chart</a></td> <td class=right> <i><a href=#top align=right>Return to Top</a></i></td> </tr> </table> <p><p><em>Signed C-S <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=40947">Brayan Pena</a></span> to a two-year deal worth $5 million. [11/30]</em></p> <p>There are numerous aspects of this deal that might strike you as surprising: that the Cardinals would guarantee $5 million to a backup catcher when they have <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31391">Yadier Molina</a></span>; that Pena would require multiple years, only to then accept a job with limited playing-time prospects; and so on. But it makes sense when you get right down to it.</p> <p> Molina's bat has slipped the past two seasons, and you wonder if the catalyst is his accumulating mileage. It would be an understandable cause: Molina has been a big-league backstop since 2004, catching more than 100 games in each of the last 11 seasons. At some point—and it may have passed—Molina starting 130 to 140 games per was no longer going to be a feasible arrangement. The problem with implementing more rest days for Molina was the lack of alternatives. Given the choice between a beaten down Molina and a healthy <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55765">Tony Cruz</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=194">Mike Matheny</a></span> (and most others) would pick Molina.</p> <p> Pena gives Matheny and—perhaps just as importantly—Molina an excuse for more scheduled days off. He's spent the last two seasons with the Reds, where he's proved to be a tolerable hitter over a larger sample size than his previous body of work demanded. Always regarded as a fine catch-and-throw backstop, Pena employs a patient, contact-heavy approach that has resulted in a .260 multi-year True Average against right-handed pitchers (Molina's, for comparison, is .258). Obviously Pena isn't as good at defense as Molina—whose responsibilities extend beyond receiving, throwing, and game-calling—but he's a step up from Cruz, whose best attribute is . . . um, his familiarity with the pitching staff.</p> <p> Assuming the plan is to rest Molina more often, then the curious aspect is how the Cardinals will go about it. Will they make Pena someone's personal catcher, as well as the designated day-after-night-game starter? Or will they get a little more creative by bundling his starts? There are a lot of options on the table. Ultimately, though, St. Louis' route will be determined by Molina's buy-in. Remember, from the Cardinals' perspective, this isn't $5 million spent on a backup catcher so much as it is $5 million spent to ensure a $75-million investment remains in tip-top shape through the end of his commitment.</p> </p> <p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/27977/transaction-analysis-getting-into-de-fratus/">Transaction Analysis: Getting Into De Fratus</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/27977/transaction-analysis-getting-into-de-fratus/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> </item> <item> <title>Overthinking It: Five Interesting Things from Yesterday’s Games</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16768/overthinking-it-five-interesting-things-from-yesterdays-games/</link> <comments>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16768/overthinking-it-five-interesting-things-from-yesterdays-games/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Lindbergh]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 11:30:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Chris Davis]]></category> <category><![CDATA[clay hensley]]></category> <category><![CDATA[dee gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[derek jeter]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[jose iglesias]]></category> <category><![CDATA[mark kotsay]]></category> <category><![CDATA[matt kemp]]></category> <category><![CDATA[nick johnson]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Peter Bourjos]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ubaldo Jimenez]]></category> <category><![CDATA[unearned runs]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16768</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Dee Gordon hits his first home run, two bench players push the limits of bad batting, Chris Davis keeps hitting, Clay Hensley exposes the unearned run, Derek Jeter hits cleanly in three of his five at-bats (or does he?), and more.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16768/overthinking-it-five-interesting-things-from-yesterdays-games/">Overthinking It: Five Interesting Things from Yesterday’s Games</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> Five things I wanted to write about happened in last night’s games, but none of them was substantial enough on its own for an article. The solution: drop all five unrelated observations (plus a few more for good measure) into the same article draft and call it a column. Trick of the trade.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1589">Derek Jeter</a></span> goes 3-for-5 and gets accused of steroid use by this one guy I talked to</strong><br /> I live in a baseball discourse bubble.</p> <p> I don’t listen to sports talk radio. I don’t often read comments sections, except at BP, where the readers are smarter than I am. I don’t often sit in the stands at stadiums. Most of the conversations I have about baseball are with people who write for BP or other online outlets. I don’t read much mainstream local media coverage. There’s a certain sub-section of the sabermetric community that reads writers it’s already deemed to be bad, purely for the snark potential. I’ve dabbled in that activity, but I don’t do it often, mostly because I can’t seem to find enough time to read all the things I think are <em>good</em>, let alone anything else. I follow selectively on Twitter, which means that the tweeters I see in my timeline are more likely than the average person to agree with me and to approach the process of answering questions in a similar way.</p> <p> All of those tendencies combine to build a near-impenetrable bubble of baseball discourse. So sometimes I forget that the objective approach to baseball isn’t for everyone. Sometimes I forget that there’s still a large portion of the populace for whom an unexplained change in performance is most conveniently pinned on—simple!—steroids. Every now and then, I receive a reminder.</p> <p> Yesterday evening, I was at an event that was also attended by my mother and a few of her friends. One of her friends, a sharp 75-year-old, has been a Yankees fan for years. Since I was the only person at the table who writes about baseball, he quickly cornered me. “So what do you think about Jeter?” he asked. “He’s taking steroids, right?”</p> <p> At first, I assumed he was kidding. Then I noticed that he wasn’t smiling. I checked his cheek. His tongue wasn’t in there. Uh-oh.</p> <p> I hemmed and hawed, not particularly eager to argue about Derek Jeter’s drug use with an elderly man. Eventually, I stammered out something about there being no evidence that Jeter was juicing. “But what about <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=436">Barry Bonds</a></span>?” he pressed. “Look what he did when he was 37.”</p> <p> Bonds supposedly started taking steroids because his pride couldn’t take the sight of inferior players like <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17361">Mark McGwire</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=271">Sammy Sosa</a></span> stealing his headlines. Jeter is known for being a proud player. Maybe he’s taking similar measures. But maybe—no, probably—he isn’t. “I can’t prove that he’s <em>not</em> taking steroids,” I allowed. I’d meant for that line to emphasize the absurdity of the argument, but my adversary seemed satisfied. We both dropped the subject.</p> <p> When I got home, I Googled to see whether anyone else had decided the Cap'n was getting chemical assistance. I found this <a href="http://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20120420141815AAf5L69">question and declarative sentence with question mark after it</a>: “Is Derek Jeter on steroids? He has 4 homers already and is on pace for 59?” Yahoo! Answers seemed like the sort of place where I might get some answers, so I scrolled down. The first answer: “Well he used to do steriods [sic] before they were illegalized in the mlb [sic].” So now I was up two ironclad facts: not only is Jeter taking steroids now, but he took them before, too.</p> <p> After his 3-for-5 Tuesday, Jeter is hitting .400/.440/.590. That’s a damn good line for any player after April, let alone a soon-to-be-38-year-old shortstop who looked like he was on his last legs two seasons ago. Like everyone else, I’ve been wondering how this could be happening since his second-half surge last season. Can we attribute it to a mechanical change, like restoring his old stride after a calf strain last June? Is he hitting fewer grounders? Is his even-higher-than-usual <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> a sign that he’s getting good bounces? Did Minka Kelly <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U8_LX7ccC4">weaken legs</a> in a way that the gift-basket brigade never could?</p> <p> I don’t know which of those factors, if any, is responsible for Jeter’s success. I’m curious, but not so curious that I’d invent an explanation to settle the matter in my mind. I’m okay with not knowing. Everyone inside my bubble is, too. But as I’m periodically reminded, most baseball discourse isn’t inside the bubble.</p> <p> “You heard it here first,” my mother’s friend said to me at the end of the night. “Yes. I did,” I responded. But if Jeter keeps hitting, that might not turn out to be where I heard it last.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58880">Dee Gordon</a></span> hits a home run</strong><br /> If <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span> had hit his first home run last night, this whole article would’ve been about Gordon and Harper hitting their first home runs on the same night. Two top prospects, one expected to hit a ton of homers, one not expected to hit any. One who took 10 at-bats to go yard, one who took 300. They come in all kinds.</p> <p> Instead, Harper went 0-for-3 with a strikeout as the Nationals fell 5-1 to the Diamondbacks despite a quality start by <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57163">Jordan Zimmermann</a></span>. (Actually, by Nats starter standards, three earned runs over 6 1/3 is embarrassing.) That leaves Gordon.</p> <p> Major-league players come in many shapes and sizes. Gordon’s shape and size are roughly those of the pimply-faced kid who cuts your lawn, the one who hit his growth spurt but hasn’t filled out yet. Gordon knows this: his Twitter handle is @skinnyswag9.</p> <p> Gordon doesn’t look like he could hit a home run, and until last night, he hadn’t shown that his appearance could be deceiving. <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12974">Over a year ago</a>, <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/author/jason_parks">Jason Parks</a> wrote that Gordon lacked the strength to keep major-league pitchers “concerned about challenging him at the plate.” For a while, that article made Jason look smart. Then it made him look stupid. Now it’s mostly making him look smart again, except for one swing last night.</p> <p> That swing came on a 90-mph fastball down the middle from <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49925">Jhoulys Chacin</a></span>. Gordon was the first batter of the game, and when Chacin fell behind in the count 2-1, he decided to challenge him. Why not? It wasn’t like Gordon was going to hit it out. Except <a href="http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_05_01_lanmlb_colmlb_1&highlight_content_id=21069417&c_id=la">he did</a>.</p> <p> Here’s the most surprising thing about this homer: you’d think that if a guy like Gordon were finally going to hit one out, it would just barely clear the fence. Maybe it would get a gust of wind behind it, or be clasped between the talons of a passing bird, or bounce off <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16846">Jose Canseco</a></span>’s head. There was no way he would go from not hitting a home run since May 29, 2010 with Double-A Chattanooga to hitting a home run that looked just like other home runs.</p> <p> But Gordon’s home run not only cleared the fence under its own power, but cleared it by a wide margin. <a href="http://hittrackeronline.com/">Hit Tracker</a> classified it as a “No Doubt” home run, which means it “cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence.” Yes, it was Coors Field, and crazy home runs have been hit at Coors, but according to Greg Rybarczyk’s math, that one would have been out of all 30 parks. The average “True Distance” of an NL home run this season is 399 feet. In Coors, it’s 405.2. Gordon’s traveled 419.</p> <p align="center"> <img alt="" src="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/coorsfield_rings_2012_649.jpg" style="width: 400px; height: 393px; " /></p> <p> One home run like that probably might not be enough to earn a major-league pitcher’s respect, but it’s enough to earn mine.</p> <p> By the way, this is Dee Gordon's "I just hit a home run" face:</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px; "> <img alt="" src="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/Gordon1.png" style="width: 600px; height: 338px; " /></p> <p> And here's <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45436">Matt Kemp</a></span> reaching out to touch Dee Gordon and hoping some of Gordon's power will rub off on him:</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px; "> <img alt="" src="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/Gordon2.png" /></p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> goes 3-4 with a <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>, is now hitting .333/.378/.627 </strong><br /> Sometimes I’m not sure we know anything about baseball.</p> <p> Before the 2008 season, <em>Baseball America</em> named Chris Davis its 65th-best prospect. (<a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/author/kevin_goldstein">Kevin Goldstein</a> had him 74th.) They did this for a pretty good reason: Chris Davis hit 36 home runs in 2007. Yes, he hit 24 of them in Bakersfield, but he was only 21, and man, 36 is a high number of home runs.</p> <p> I’m going to point the finger at our own player comments now, both because it’s easy and because everyone likes someone who’s self-effacing. In <em><span class="bookdef"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0452289033/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/" target="blank">BP2008</a></span></em>, we called Davis “one of the top power prospects around,” saying, “if he can stay on the left side of the infield, his upside falls somewhere between <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1438">Dean Palmer</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=879">Troy Glaus</a></span>.” As it turned out, he couldn’t, but still, offensively, we said he could slot in between a guy with 275 home runs and a guy with 320. So, 300-homer upside.</p> <p> A year later, we were still cautiously optimistic, telling the reader to “…use [Ryan] Klesko as your guide, and enjoy the bopping to come.” Then there was the 2010 season, when Davis bombed as the Rangers’ everyday first baseman at the start of the season, refined his approach in the minors, and hit .308/.338/.496 after a second call-up in August. That late-season success addressed all our concerns in <em><span class="bookdef"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470558407/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/" target="blank">BP2010</a></span></em>: “With off-the-charts raw power, he’s learned the valuable lesson of just hitting balls and letting the home runs come naturally, and all systems should be go for a big 2010.”</p> <p> In 2010, Davis hit .192/.279/.292 in 136 plate appearances. His off-the-charts raw power resulted in one home run for the Rangers. Most of his season was spent in the minors. In <em><span class="bookdef"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470622067/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/" target="blank">BP2011</a></span></em>, we totally changed our tune. The comment included the line, “Once a very promising power bat, Davis looks to be a one-hit wonder.” It called him a “newly christened Quad-A player” and invoked the name of Matt Murton. Last season, Davis played at a level between the success of 2008 and the disaster of 2010, and we hedged our bets in the most recent annual, saying he could either break out or bust. In other words, “shrug.”</p> <p> A couple months ago, an author submitted an article for the site that began with the line, “This will not, in all likelihood, be the year Chris Davis breaks out.” I decided not to run the article as it was written, not because I disagreed with the premise—I didn’t—but because I didn’t think another article about not knowing what to make of Davis was anything new. </p> <p> The results keep fluctuating, and we can’t seem to decide what we think Davis is. If he hits, he’s promising, and his contact difficulties and defensive shortcomings are obstacles that can be overcome. If he doesn’t hit, he’s not a prospect. Right now, he’s hitting and not striking out, so he could be breaking out. If we were to write a post-April player comment for Davis, we’d probably cite his lofty <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> as evidence that his average is about to come down but point out that the power is real. Of course, it always has been.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36847">Clay Hensley</a></span> pitches an inning</strong><br /> I really should have come up with a catchier title for this section, because baseball doesn’t get much more boring than Clay Hensley pitching. Once you saw something about Clay Hensley, you probably stopped reading. Now I’m writing for myself, just like I do in my diary. If you’re still reading, please stop snooping.</p> <p> There wasn’t anything remarkable about the inning Hensley pitched last night, but here’s how it left his seasonal line:</p> <p> 7.1 3 4 0 4 9</p> <p> Hensley has pitched 7 1/3 innings. He has a 0.00 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>. He also has a 1-2 record. He’s averaging a decision every 2.4 innings. (<span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31476">Matt Cain</a></span> has pitched 46 1/3 innings with a 2.33 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>, and his record is also 1-2.) Hensley is a vulture in that he’s stealing decisions from starters, but he’s mostly stealing losses, which makes him more of a good Samaritan.</p> <p> The really interesting thing, though, is how deceptive his <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> is. Hensley has already allowed four unearned runs. Three of them came on his own throwing error in a game against the Reds on April 25th:</p> <p align="center"> <img alt="" src="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/Hensley.gif" /></p> <p> The other unearned run scored four days before that, when Hensley started the ninth inning of a tie game against the Mets, allowed a single and a walk, and gave way to <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1354">Jeremy Affeldt</a></span>. Affeldt gave up an infield single to load the bases, and the winning run scored on a <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58548">Buster Posey</a></span> throwing error. Hensley put that runner on, but it didn’t count against his <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>. If those four unearned runs had been charged to Hensley, his <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> would be 4.91. This is one case where win-loss record might not be the worst indicator of a pitcher’s performance. That distinction goes to <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>.</p> <p> <strong>Bad bats sit on the bench</strong><br /> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50054">Peter Bourjos</a></span> hasn’t been to the plate since <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span> took over in center on Sunday. Bourjos has the second-worst <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> (.176) of any AL hitter with at least 50 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> this season, and Mike Trout (who plays a capable center himself) doesn’t make outs in the minors, so it’s tough to blame the struggling Angels for benching Bourjos, at least in favor of Trout. (<span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1019">Vernon Wells</a></span> is another matter.) This season, at least, the less Bourjos has batted, the better. Even though there's currently no place for him at the plate, though, the Angels haven't sent him down to get regular work, since his speed and glove give him value as a substitute.</p> <p> Meanwhile, in Boston, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31729">Kevin Youkilis</a></span> hasn’t played since Saturday because of a strained back. For added infield depth, the Red Sox demoted <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58984">Junichi Tazawa</a></span> and promoted Triple-A shortstop <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=61044">Jose Iglesias</a></span>. Iglesias is, by all accounts, a fantastic fielder. He’s also hitting .200/.274/.212 in Triple-A this season, and .229/.283/.258 at the level lifetime. That’s more than a caveat—it’s a potentially career-ending weakness.</p> <p> What this makes me wonder is: How great a fielder do you have to be to stick on a roster when you can’t hit at all? Obviously, you have to play a premium defensive position, and play it well, as both Bourjos and Iglesias do. Lumping the two together offensively isn’t fair to Bourjos, who was a well-above-average-hitter in the major leagues last season, though that performance probably represented the best he can do with the bat. Iglesias is the real offensive zero, and while this promotion is only temporary, the Sox will eventually have to decide whether his leather is worth a deep, dark hole in the lineup. If he’s <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18261">Ozzie Smith</a></span>, perhaps they can. If he’s anything less than an all-time great in the field, though, utility work might be the most he can hope for.</p> <p> <strong>Bonus observations</strong></p> <p> <strong>Matt Kemp gets caught stealing, is officially a bust</strong><br /> Matt Kemp predicted he’d go 50/50 this year. After a month, he has two steals in five attempts. Talk about your disappointing seasons.*</p> <p> <em>*I tweeted those same three sentences last night and received <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/fallsrich/status/197553798414204928">this response</a>: “Unless he meant 50 HRs in the 1st half and then 50 SBs in the 2nd half.”</em> Crazy, right? Not even Matt Kemp could’ve meant that. But the more I see him play, the more I’m convinced that he might have. NL pitchers are making the power part too easy, so he’s handicapping himself. Expert fantasy advice you should follow for sure: trade Kemp at the All-Star break unless you need steals in the second half.</p> <p> <strong>Two other unlikely players hit their first home runs, but one doesn’t count because it’s off Ubaldo</strong><br /> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58057">Gordon Beckham</a></span> had a .148 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> before his home run last night, the worst mark of any American League hitter with at least 50 plate appearances this season. (Now he’s up to .184, which is only sixth-worst. Baby steps.) Then he faced the <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> fairy formerly known as <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37512">Ubaldo Jimenez</a></span>. Jimenez gave up eight hits, three of them to Beckham, and seven runs (four earned) over 4 2/3 innings, walking six and striking out one. Except for his having played in the big leagues and being really rich and tall and athletic, I would not want to be Ubaldo right now. Behold, Ubaldo’s average four-seam fastball velocities since 2007, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:</p> <p align="center"> <img alt="" src="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/UbaldoVelo.png" style="width: 481px; height: 289px; " /></p> <p> Ubaldohno, amirite? That’s not a pretty progression. When <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/author/steven_goldman">Steven Goldman</a> and I <a href="file:///C:/Users/Ben/Desktop/bbp.cx/a/16127">discussed</a> Ubaldo Jimenez in February, I was hearing alarm bells. Now I hear <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfuQd_xZlKw">the siren that sounds when they scramble the TIE Fighters</a> anytime I so much as see a name that starts with “U,” which has pretty much ruined all my Uncle Tupelo records.</p> <p> By the way, Beckham rounding the bases and scoring wasn’t the only unusual thing that happened when Beckham hit a home run. The clouds of smoke from the fireworks they set off in the Cell after the homer took their sweet time to disperse, and before they did, Alejando De Aza got an <a href="http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=cle&content_id=21080365&topic_id=11493214">infield double</a> out of a popup that got lost in the haze. Blame Ubaldo.</p> <p> The other unexpected first homer was a <a href="http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=sd&content_id=21082743&topic_id=28033182">pinch-hit, eighth-inning game-winner</a> by <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=629">Mark Kotsay</a></span>. In Petco. This is what my loss for words looks like:</p> <p> </p> <p> And since you were wondering, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=204">Albert Pujols</a></span> went 0-for-4. You can't hit your first homer when you go 0-for-4.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1590">Nick Johnson</a></span> gets a hit</strong><br /> And <a href="http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21072945&c_id=mlb">extra bases</a>, to boot. At 0-for-29, Johnson was about to enter <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49136">Eugenio Velez</a></span> <a href="http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/7033519/los-angeles-dodgers-eugenio-velez-goes-hitless-46-straight-bats-set-dubious-mark">territory</a>, so the long-awaited hit, a clean double to right off <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1182">Rafael Soriano</a></span>, came as a relief to everyone. Of course, he’s now hitting .033/.147/.067, which is kind of anticlimactic and still screams “Release me.”</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jesus+Montero">Jesus Montero</a></span> goes 4-for-4</strong><br /> In a game in which he played catcher and didn’t do anything particularly embarrassing defensively, Montero also collected four hits. Now he’s hitting .294 on the season and .361 with two homers and a double over his last eight games. Granted, he’s walked only twice, but you still get the feeling that Yankees fans are about to be even unhappier about the Pineda trade. To add insult to injury, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Campos">Jose Campos</a></span> gave up eight earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his Saturday start for Charleston, temporarily making the “but we also got this awesome guy in A-ball” argument more difficult.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47564">A.J. Ellis</a></span> goes 2-for-4</strong><br /> After reaching base twice on Tuesday, Ellis has a .449 on-base percentage in 79 plate appearances for the Dodgers, even better than the .441 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> he recorded across four Triple-A seasons. Hey, you’ll never guess which catcher with at least 300 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> from 2008-2012 has the second-highest <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> over that span. Okay, <em>maybe</em> you’ll guess, since I asked you in the A.J. Ellis section: A.J. Ellis! (Please pardon my arbitrary endpoints and carefully selected plate appearance thresholds.) This season, Ellis has chased a lower percentage of pitches outside the zone than any other player with at least 20 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>. He doesn’t hit for power, so it might not be long before pitchers stop trying to toy with him.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16768/overthinking-it-five-interesting-things-from-yesterdays-games/">Overthinking It: Five Interesting Things from Yesterday’s Games</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16768/overthinking-it-five-interesting-things-from-yesterdays-games/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> </item> <item> <title>Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL Edition</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16762/prospectus-hit-and-run-worse-than-pujols-al-edition/</link> <comments>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16762/prospectus-hit-and-run-worse-than-pujols-al-edition/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Jay Jaffe]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 03:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[albert pujols]]></category> <category><![CDATA[american league]]></category> <category><![CDATA[baltimore orioles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[brennan boesch]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Casey Kotchman]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cleveland Indians]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Eric Hosmer]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[justin smoak]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim]]></category> <category><![CDATA[major league baseball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[mark reynolds]]></category> <category><![CDATA[mlb]]></category> <category><![CDATA[national league]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16762</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Albert Pujols may be struggling, but there are major-league regulars doing even worse. </p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16762/prospectus-hit-and-run-worse-than-pujols-al-edition/">Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL Edition</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=204">Albert Pujols</a></span> you know about. The $240 million man has yet to get untracked for the Angels and ended the month of April hitting a paltry .217/.265/.304 without a homer. He's hardly the only hitter who has begun 2012 in a funk, though. In fact, <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1097101">41 other hitters</a> came into Tuesday with True Averages lower than or equal to that of Pujols' .225 in at least 65 plate appearances, i.e., enough to qualify for the batting title. Sure, those are small samples sizes, but we're 14 percent of the way through the season, with one page of the calendar wadded up into a ball, so it's not like we can't at least gawk at the outliers. What follows is a look at a half-dozen AL hitters—none of them as good as Pujols to begin with, admittedly—who are struggling to an even greater degree than the Angels slugger, and where they and their teams might go from here.</p> <p> All statistics are through Monday, and all players are listed in alphabetical order to protect the guiltiest. I'll be back with a companion set for the NL later this week.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58057">Gordon Beckham</a></span></strong>, White Sox (.153/.231/.203, .148 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Since hitting .270/.347/.460 as a rookie in 2009, the year after the White Sox chose him with the eighth pick of the amateur draft, Beckham has been moving backward with alarming speed, hitting a cumulative .236/.302/.347. His True Averages have fallen from .279 in 2009 to .253 in 2010, to .242 last year (a performance which earned him a <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16001">Dishonorable Mention</a> on the Vortices of Suck team), to .148 this year. His batting averages, isolated power, and walk rates have declined annually as well, while his strikeout rate and K/BB ratio have climbed with just as much consistency. Coming into Tuesday, Beckham rated as <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1097101">the worst-hitting regular in all of baseball</a>. Though he's still just 25, he's <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=3814">drawing comments</a> about foot speed and bat speed that aren't what they were in college.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> Beckham is hardly the only White Sox infielder who is flailing miserably. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51421">Alexei Ramirez</a></span> (.207/.233/.264, for a .188 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>) and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58918">Brent Morel</a></span> (.178/.221/.205, for a .194 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>) have been indescribably awful as well, and either could have merited a spot here. Neither of those two is riding quite the same downward trajectory as Beckham, though.</p> <p> Even while averaging just 3.86 runs per game, the Sox entered Tuesday 11-11, tied with the Tigers for second in the AL Central. Manager <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1615">Robin Ventura</a></span> has given 23-year-old rookie <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51653">Eduardo Escobar</a></span> four starts at second base thus far, but he's not much of a hitter; last year, he batted .266/.303/.354 at Triple-A Charlotte, and his weighted mean <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> (.243/.268/.320) suggests he'd be hard-pressed to match those numbers in the majors. The Sox might want to consider optioning Beckham to Triple-A to stop the bleeding and preserve his service time and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58249">Tyler Kuhn</a></span> a look. The 25-year-old, a 15<sup>th</sup>-round pick from 2008, has hit just .275/.311/.360 in about two months of Triple-A (197 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> split between 2011 and 2012), but he tore up the Southern League last year (.341/.401/.464 in 470 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>) while playing for Birmingham, and his ability to play second, short, third, and left field could make him a useful offense-oriented utilityman if Beckham is able to turn things around.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51955">Brennan Boesch</a></span></strong>, Tigers (.231/.255/.352, .202 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Aside from <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Miguel+Cabrera">Miguel Cabrera</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31366">Prince Fielder</a></span>, the Tigers' offense entered Tuesday hitting just .225/.283/.357, and the team had dropped eight out of 10 after opening the season 9-3. Boesch, who has batted second in every game save for one, has failed to set the table adequately for the big boys; he has walked just twice in 94 plate appearances, while striking out 20 times (tied with <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47939">Austin Jackson</a></span> for the team lead). After showing an odd reverse platoon split in his first two major-league seasons (.319/.380/.471 in 237 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> against lefties, .254/.315/.425 in 747 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> against righties), Boesch batting just .294/.294/.324 in 34 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> against same-siders with no walks and just one extra-base hit, and a similarly unhelpful .193/.233/.368 in 60 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> against righties.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> The Tigers aren't getting much from any of their corner outfield types. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45493">Delmon Young</a></span> was hitting just .242/.311/.333 before he was arrested on a hate crime harassment charge and suspended for a week. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=41409">Ryan Raburn</a></span> (.148/.220/.185) has been awful whether playing second base or left field; the only reason he's not being written up here is that he's got too few plate appearances to qualify. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57797">Andy Dirks</a></span> has hit .281/.303/.531, albeit in all of 33 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>, this after batting a more representative .251/.296/.406 in 235 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> last year, while <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49005">Clete Thomas</a></span> was lost to the Twins on waivers, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37860">Don Kelly</a></span> (.240/.345/.240) is forever out of his element when he strays into an outfield corner. Far from being <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16483">a thousand-run juggernaut</a>, the Tigers simply don't have the depth to withstand a key regular underperforming, particularly at a corner position, so you can bet Boesch will get every chance to hit his way out of this.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57988">Eric Hosmer</a></span></strong>, Royals (.188/.274/.388, .225 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Hosmer has five homers already, which ties him for 10<sup>th</sup> in the AL with 10 other players, but his .164 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> is the league's second-lowest mark. When he's not going yard, he's not hitting the ball all that hard; to the extent that line-drive rate tells us anything (debatable) his 11.1 LD% is <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1097143">the league's third-lowest mark</a> among qualifiers. Within the extremely small sample size of his 24 plate appearances against southpaws, he's hitting just .143/.250/.190, a step down even from last year's .237/.282/.303 in 163 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> Hosmer's woes against lefties aside, there isn't much to suggest this is more than bad luck. He managed a .314 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> last year as a rookie, and he should be able to approach a similar figure given a large enough sample. He came into Tuesday in an 0-for-15 funk, but prior to that he had actually enjoyed a hot stretch, going 8-for-23 with three homers and four walks in a six-game span. The Royals are off to an abysmal 6-15 start, but the best thing they've got going for them is the core of their lineup—<span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52054">Alex Gordon</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45396">Billy Butler</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57478">Mike Moustakas</a></span>, and Hosmer. They've got nothing better to do than wait for him to come around soon enough.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31601">Casey Kotchman</a></span></strong>, Indians (.149/.240/.254, .177 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Kotchman enjoyed something of a breakout year for Tampa Bay last year, batting .306/.378/.422 for Tampa Bay with 10 homers in 563 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>. He managed that line thanks to a .335 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a>, 67 points higher than his previous career mark, and alas, the <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> gods have come to collect the rent; he's at a league-low .143 and now has the AL's second-worst <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> among regulars. Coming into Tuesday, he was in the throes of a 2-for-32 slump.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> In signing Kotchman, the Indians supplanted <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57614">Matt LaPorta</a></span>, who in three years of big-league action totaling 1,008 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> had hit a meager .238/.304/.397. While Kotchman flails in Cleveland, LaPorta's currently burning Triple-A Columbus and the International League to the ground, hitting .380/.451/.759 with eight homers in 91 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>; then again, he's always hit well for the Clippers, .323/.408/.586 in 574 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> spread out over parts of four seasons. Still, it's tempting to think the 27-year-old former first-round pick could give the Indians' offense a jolt; while the big club ranks sixth in the league in scoring, they're 12<sup>th</sup> in slugging percentage. LaPorta won't provide the defense that Kotchman—who was <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16296">signed in part for his glovework</a> to back up a low-strikeout staff—can, but it's not out of the question he can help.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Mark+Reynolds">Mark Reynolds</a></span></strong>, Orioles (.143/.260/.206, .188 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Reynolds has gained notoriety as an all-or-nothing player, having averaged 35 homers and 208 strikeouts per year from 2008-2011. This year, the emphasis has too often been on the "nothing" part of that equation; through Monday he had yet to homer in 72 plate appearances, while striking out a major-league high 41 percent of the time. While that K rate may lead you to assume that he's hacking away, Reynolds' swing rate of 39.5 percent is a career low, nine percentage points below his career mark, and his first-pitch swing rate of 23 percent is 12 percentage points below his career mark—in other words, he may be too passive, if anything. Coming into Tuesday night's game, he was in a 3-for-31 slump, with 17 strikeouts in 36 plate appearances over that span. Blech.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> Reynolds is already bouncing around the lineup; he's made 10 starts at third base, eight at designated hitter, and one at first base. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> is lighting the league ablaze while starting at first (.310/.359/.563), and though the same can't be said for <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=19093">Wilson Betemit</a></span>, he has at least shown some pop (.241/.268/.481) while starting 11 times at third and another four times elsewhere. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1590">Nick Johnson</a></span>, who's second on the team in starts at DH (six) went into Tuesday 0-for-26—he ran that to 0-for-29 before finally collecting a hit—and he's got even less defensive utility than Reynolds, not to mention a 50 percent likelihood of disemboweling himself on any given grounder.</p> <p> Reynolds, for whatever his flaws, does have a career .274 True Average in spite of his low batting averages, so he should probably be given the leeway to sort himself out, though given that he's a pending free agent with an $11 million club option, you can bet that the Orioles would just as soon hope that he plays himself into being somebody's deadline acquisition.</p> <p> <strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">Justin Smoak</a></span></strong>, Mariners (.200/.247/.325, 204 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>)<br /> Considered one of the game's <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142">top 20 prospects</a> as recently as two years ago, Smoak had disappointed mightily at the major-league level, batting .227/.316/.385 in 886 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> with the Rangers and Mariners in 2010-2011. During the spring, the 25-year-old <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2017793671_mari20.html">admitted</a> that he got too caught up in hitting home runs after bashing 12 homers in Seattle's first 59 games last year; he managed just three more the rest of the way. Smoak came to camp in the proverbial best shape of his life, determined to focus simply on hitting the ball hard, but it hasn't paid off; while he does have three homers, his .228 batting average on balls in play is the league's ninth-lowest mark, and according to <a href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/04/23/the-thing-justin-smoak-has-to-fix/">USS Mariner</a>'s PITCHf/x-based analysis, he's been simply useless against off-speed pitches.</p> <p> <strong>Where Do We Go From Here?</strong> Smoak now has nearly a thousand plate appearances at the big-league level without coming anywhere close to average production for a first baseman. His whiff rates against curves (25 percent), sliders (18.2 percent), and changeups (14 percent) relative to fastballs (3.9 percent, all figures from <a href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/475253/">TexasLeaguers.com</a>) suggest a significant deficit in pitch-recognition skills. At the very least, he's got no business occupying the Mariners' cleanup spot, where he's batted in every game he's played, and at the most, he should probably be in the midst of a Triple-A refresher course while somebody else—perhaps <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51542">Alex Liddi</a></span>, who's filled in at times—mans first for awhile.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16762/prospectus-hit-and-run-worse-than-pujols-al-edition/">Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL Edition</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16762/prospectus-hit-and-run-worse-than-pujols-al-edition/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> </item> <item> <title>Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck, Part I</title> <link>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16001/prospectus-hit-and-run-the-vortices-of-suck-part-i/</link> <comments>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16001/prospectus-hit-and-run-the-vortices-of-suck-part-i/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Jay Jaffe]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2012 03:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category> <category><![CDATA[a's]]></category> <category><![CDATA[adam kennedy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[alexi casilla]]></category> <category><![CDATA[anthony rizzo]]></category> <category><![CDATA[baseball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[brad hawpe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[brandon allen]]></category> <category><![CDATA[carlos corporan]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Casey McGehee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category> <category><![CDATA[chone figgins]]></category> <category><![CDATA[conor jackson]]></category> <category><![CDATA[daric barton]]></category> <category><![CDATA[drew butera]]></category> <category><![CDATA[gordon beckham]]></category> <category><![CDATA[houston astros]]></category> <category><![CDATA[humberto quintero]]></category> <category><![CDATA[j.r. towles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[jeus guzman]]></category> <category><![CDATA[joe mauer]]></category> <category><![CDATA[jorge cantu]]></category> <category><![CDATA[jr towles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[kyle seager]]></category> <category><![CDATA[luke hughes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[m's]]></category> <category><![CDATA[major league baseball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[matt tolbert]]></category> <category><![CDATA[minnesota twins]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category> <category><![CDATA[rene rivera]]></category> <category><![CDATA[replacement level]]></category> <category><![CDATA[San Diego Padres]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category> <category><![CDATA[tampa bay rays]]></category> <category><![CDATA[vortices of suck]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16001</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Which men of misery prevented their teams from escaping the murky waters of suckitude?</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16001/prospectus-hit-and-run-the-vortices-of-suck-part-i/">Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck, Part I</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> My semiannual <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15945">Replacement-Level Killers</a> series spotlights the worst holes in contenders' lineups, as well as the possible remedies they might take to avoid letting such subpar production destroy their post-season chances the next time around. I make no claims for this companion series being so noble in purpose. Because bad baseball so often makes for good copy, it's more fun to hunt the fish at the bottom of the major-league barrel to find the positions where players' contributions could be considered the worst in the majors. What follows is an "all-star" team of players who have produced tornado-level disasters amid their lineups, often at salaries that represented far more than just a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WpQefQ0crU">soft breeze</a> running through their team's bank account. Once again, I present the Vortices of Suck.</p> <p> Unlike the Killers, which are limited to contenders who came up short, players from all 30 teams are eligible for the Vortices. Note that within a given position, a player might have made a significantly positive contribution over a small fraction of playing time, one that’s offset by the sub-replacement level horror of his teammates, and that may have been propped up by better performance in a smaller sample size at a different position.</p> <p> <strong>Catcher:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=MAUER19830419A">Joe Mauer</a></span> (.266 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>, 1.5 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a>), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BUTERA19830809A">Drew Butera</a></span> (.164, −1.4), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Rene+Rivera">Rene Rivera</a></span> (.171, −0.6), Twins<br /> The Twins donned the rose-colored glasses when it came to Mauer's off-season surgery to alleviate a knee problem‚ which didn't happen until mid-December, and they paid dearly for failing to scare up a competent backup. The combination of a slow recovery, bilateral leg weakness exacerbated by a viral infection, and shoulder issues limited Mauer to just nine games before June 17 and only 47 starts behind the plate. A bout of pneumonia in September didn't help matters, either, and he wound up with a .287/.360/.368 line and three homers in 296 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>. Just 201 of those PAs came as at catcher; he hit .239/.328/.324.</p> <p> Meanwhile, Butera showed that membership in the International Brotherhood of Backup Catchers shouldn't be based on <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BUTERA19520925A">heredity</a> no matter how ignorant of the tools one’s offspring might be. He started 75 games, "hit" for a lower True Average than any batter with at least 250 plate appearances since at least 1950, and rated as the least valuable catcher in the majors even with more-or-less average defense.</p> <p> Rivera did Rene Rivera things, which is to say that he was scarcely any better than the .159 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> and −0.7 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> he delivered to the Mariners in his last major league go-round, back in 2006. In all, Twins catchers combined for a .185/.250/.259 line, which doesn't include Mauer's work in 33 games at other positions.</p> <p> <strong>Remedy (?):</strong> Though he stopped short of invoking the dreaded Best Shape of His Life phrase, Mauer says his knee and the rest of his body are <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120128&content_id=26497906&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb">feeling great</a>, and both he and the Twins have acknowledged that the $184 million man (who still has seven years to go on his contract) must spend time at first base and DH to lessen the strain on his body and keep his bat in the lineup. The Twins made a nice low-cost signing of <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=DOUMIT19810403A">Ryan Doumit</a></span>, a decent hitter (.288 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> in 236 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> last year, .264 career) but <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093">a lousy receiver</a>, and Butera clings like a barnacle to a 40-man roster spot, which hardly makes for a bulletproof plan.</p> <p> <strong>Dishonorable Mention:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=QUINTERO19790802A">Humberto Quintero</a></span> (.207, −0.4), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=TOWLES19840211A">J.R. Towles</a></span> (.225, −0.1), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CORPORAN19840107A">Carlos Corporan</a></span> (.177, −0.9), Astros. Nothing new here; the Astros were the <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14703">midseason "winners"</a> at this particular position, and finished with a combined .211/.257/.293 line. They haven't had a catcher provide league-average offense across 200 or more plate appearances <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1072911">since 2000</a>, when both <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=MELUSKEY19730918A">Mitch Meluskey</a></span> (.285) and Tony Eusebio (.260) did so, but free agent <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=SNYDER19810212A">Chris Snyder</a></span> (.251 career) at least gives them a fighting chance.</p> <p> <strong>First Base:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BARTON19850816A">Daric Barton</a></span> (.237, 0.0), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=JACKSON19820507A">Conor Jackson</a></span> (.255, −0.3), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brandon+Allen">Brandon Allen</a></span> (.234, −0.1), A's<br /> Apparently, first basemen who can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag are the new market inefficiency, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BEANE19620329A">Billy Beane</a></span> is all over that when he's not starring in that movie about <a href="http://www.sfweekly.com/2005-07-06/news/say-it-ain-t-so-joe/3/">that book he wrote</a>. A's first basemen combined to hit .219/.294/.316 in 2011. Barton failed to homer in 280 plate appearances, the <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/xToeq">biggest zilch</a> of any corner player in the majors; he was farmed out in mid-June and diagnosed with a torn labrum a month later, and ultimately underwent surgery in September.</p> <p> Jackson took over but hardly sparkled before being traded to the Red Sox, and Allen stumbled after being liberated from the Arizona organization, the latest missed opportunity in a career that now features a .210/.297/.383 line through 367 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> spread over three seasons.</p> <p> <strong>Remedy</strong><strong> (?): </strong>Barton won't be <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120129&content_id=26506042¬ebook_id=26506052&vkey=notebook_oak&c_id=oak&partnerId=rss_oak">ready to throw</a> at full strength before mid-March, which opens the door for Allen and fellow <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15674">Quad-A types</a> Kila Ka'aihue and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></span> (former <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142">top prospect</a>-turned-owner of a .167/.226/.254 line in 124 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> over the past two seasons) to seize the moment as the Opening Day first baseman. All of these guys have hit in the minors, so it's not asking too much to hope that one of them besides Barton—who hit .273/.393/.405 in 2010, for a .299 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>—can solve major-league pitching.</p> <p> <strong>Dishonorable Mention:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jesus+Guzman">Jesus Guzman</a></span> (.316, 2.2), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=HAWPE19790622A">Brad Hawpe</a></span> (.234, −0.7) <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=RIZZO19890808A">Anthony Rizzo</a></span> (.221, −1.0), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CANTU19820130A">Jorge Cantu</a></span> (.185, −1.1), Padres. San Diego left the gate with Hawpe and Cantu platooning, and after that failed, they turned to top prospect Rizzo, who was hitting .365/.444/.715 with 16 homers when he was called up in early June. He did a complete face plant in six weeks on the job, and wound up returning to Tucson while Guzman, a 27-year-old rookie, caught fire (.312/.369 /.478 in 278 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>). Still, the team finished with a .230/.301/.359 line at the position.</p> <p> <strong>Second Base:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CASILLA19840720A">Alexi Casilla</a></span> (.255, 2.1), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=HUGHES19840802A">Luke Hughes</a></span> (.230, −0.5), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=TOLBERT19820504A">Matt Tolbert</a></span> (.192, −1.6) Twins<br /> The Twins' organization played Keystone Kops in the middle infield last spring, unable to decide who among Casilla and Japanese import <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=NISHIOKA19840727A">Tsuyoshi Nishioka</a></span> (a shortstop his entire career) should play which position. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubw5N8iVDHI">They chose… poorly</a>. Nishioka began the year at second base, but six games into the year, he straddled the bag too long on a potential double play, suffered a broken fibula, and missed 10 weeks.</p> <p> Casilla, who lost the shortstop job with a slow April, rebounded to give the team three decent months at second upon Nishioka's return. However, a hamstring injury limited Casilla to just one game after July 27, and forced the Twins to shuffle Tolbert, Hughes, <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=PLOUFFE19860615A">Trevor Plouffe</a></span>, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=DINKELMAN19831110A">Brian Dinkelman</a></span> the rest of the way. All told, the team's sadsack second-sackers hit .228/.278/.332.</p> <p> <strong>Remedy (?): </strong>After a <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/138243994.html">strong showing</a> in the Dominican Winter League, Casilla is penciled in as the team's starting second baseman; the Twins hope he can put together a healthy and productive season for the first time since 2008. The signing of <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CARROLL19740218A">Jamey Carroll</a></span> to play shortstop likely relegates Nishioka to a bench role, though a poor showing from Casilla could yield a Nishioka-Carroll combo.</p> <p> <strong>Dishonorable Mention:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BECKHAM19860916A">Gordon Beckham</a></span> (.242, 0.9), White Sox. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft hasn't been able to match the success of his 2009 rookie campaign, and last year showed further <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/6412923-419/the-joke-is-dirt-poor.html">maturity issues</a> amid what was essentially a season-long slump in which he hit .230/.296/.337. Only good defense (+6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>) kept him significantly above replacement level.</p> <p> <strong>Third Base:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=FIGGINS19780122A">Chone Figgins</a></span> (.199, −0.8), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=KENNEDY19760110A">Adam Kennedy</a></span> (.232, 0.2), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=SEAGER19871103A">Kyle Seager</a></span> (.266, 0.7), Mariners<br /> Figgins, the only infielder to retain his Crown of Suck from <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14703">the midseason edition</a>, has been an utter disaster since signing a four-year, $36 million deal with the Mariners two winters ago, tallying −1.4 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> over the first half of the contract. He hit just .188/.241/.243 before his season mercifully ended on August 1 due to a hip flexor injury, though to be fair, he was riding a four-game hitting streak, one shy of his season high.</p> <p> The rookie Seager, a 2009 third-round pick, made a credible showing (.258/.312 /.379) over the final two months of the season, while Kennedy was particularly craptastic (.168/.225/.232 in 103 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>) during his time subbing at third. All told, Mariners third basemen hit just .195/.252/.275—one of two collective sub-Mendoza performance from a team at a given position besides catcher.</p> <p> <strong>Remedy (?):</strong> The obvious solution would be for the Mariners to play Seager and hope that Figgins can use his versatility to his advantage as a bench player well enough to attract suitors. But noooo. It <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2017413627_will_kyle_seager_automatically.html">sounds</a> as though the M's would like to give Figgins another shot, which could send the 24-year-old Seager back to Triple-A—a level at which he's played just 24 games—because he has options remaining. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=LIDDI19880814A">Alex Liddi</a></span>, a 23-year-old who signed out of San Remo, Italy as a teenager, is also in the picture. He bopped three homers in just 44 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> last September after hitting .259/.332/.488 with 30 homers—and a whopping 170—strikeouts at Triple-A.</p> <p> <strong>Dishonorable Mention:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=MCGEHEE19821012A">Casey McGehee</a></span> (.223, −0.9), Brewers. It didn't stop the Brew Crew from making the playoffs, but they did so in spite of McGehee, who sank to .223/.280/.346 with 11 homers after hitting a combined .291/.346/.477 in 2009-2010. <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=COUNSELL19700821A">Craig Counsell</a></span> was the only other player to get more than 16 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> as the Brewers’ hot cornerman during the regular season; he got 38, less than the 45 Jerry Hairston Jr. tallied while starting all 11 of the team's post-season games.</p> <p> <strong>Shortstop: </strong><span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BRIGNAC19860116A">Reid Brignac</a></span> (.172, −0.6), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=JOHNSON19840309A">Elliot Johnson</a></span> (.224, −0.3), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=RODRIGUEZ19850426A">Sean Rodriguez</a></span> (.252, 1.2) Rays<br /> It's extremely difficult to make the postseason with the majors' worst production at a given position, but that's what the Rays did with a trio of shortstops who hit .193/.256/.282. Were it not for the miraculous outcome on the final day of the season, Brignac and company would have been stone cold Replacement-Level Killers instead. Brignac hit just .193/.227/.221 with five extra-base hits in 264 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>. Among batters with at least 250 PAs, he was worse than every single one save for the aforementioned Butera; even <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=MATHIS19830331A">Jeff Mathis</a></span> <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1068932">was better</a>, by a good 19 points of True Average.</p> <p> After spending four years in Durham waiting for a chance, Johnson hit just .194/.257/.338, but at least he'll always have Adam Sobsey's <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15811">Prufrockin' tribute</a>. Rodriguez, more utilityman than futilityman, hit a comparatively respectable .223/.323/.357 while starting 49 games at shortstop, 40 at second base, 16 at third base, and three at first base.</p> <p> <strong>Remedy (?):</strong> It appears as though the Rays will head into camp with Rodriguez and Brignac battling for the starting job, with 2008 first overall pick <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=BECKHAM19900127A">Tim Beckham</a></span> (.271/.328/.408 as a 21-year-old split between Double-A and Triple-A) and <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=LEE19901104A">Hak-Ju Lee</a></span> (.292/.365/.416 as a 20-year-old split between High-A and Double-A) also potentially staking claims for playing time down the road.</p> <p> <strong>Dishonorable Mention:</strong> <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=JANISH19821012A">Paul Janish</a></span> (.205, −0.1), <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=RENTERIA19750807A">Edgar Renteria</a></span> (.242, 0.5), Reds. It seemed clear that Janish's fluky 2010 performance at the plate (.260/.338/.385 in 228 <span class="statdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>) was too good to last, but nobody expected him to outsuck his 2009 showing. Yet he did, by hitting .214/.259/.262. Renteria went from being a World Series MVP who looked like he was on his last legs to… some other guy without hardware who looked like he was on his last legs. The player who might have solved this problem, 25-year-old <span class="playerdef"><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=COZART19850812A">Zack Cozart</a></span>, lasted just 11 games before suffering a season-ending <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14616">elbow hyperextension</a> that required surgery in August.</p> <p> I’ll be back with the outfielders and DH on the team for Monday.</p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16001/prospectus-hit-and-run-the-vortices-of-suck-part-i/">Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck, Part I</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com">Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p> ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16001/prospectus-hit-and-run-the-vortices-of-suck-part-i/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> </item> </channel> </rss>