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Future Shock: BP’s 2011 Top 101 Prospects

February 28, 2011

Having ranked the top 11 prospects in each of the 30 major-league organizations, Kevin Goldstein unveils his top 101 prospects for all of baseball. This list comes courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2011, which contains not only the list but his commentary on all 101 players.

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
3. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
4. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
6. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
7. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
8. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates
9. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
10. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
11. John Lamb, LHP, Royals
12. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
13. Wil Myers, C, Royals
14. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
15. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
16. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles
17. Zach Britton, LHP, Orioles
18. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
19. Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox
20. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
21. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
22. Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, Giants
23. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
24. Michael Pineda, RHP, Mariners
25. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners

26. Mike Minor, LHP, Braves
27. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees
28. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians
29. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
30. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
31. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
32. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees
33. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
34. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
35. Jean Segura, 2B, Angels
36. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
37. Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox
38. J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays
39. Stetson Allie, RHP, Pirates
40. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
41. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
42. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
43. Drew Pomeranz, RHP, Indians
44. Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners
45. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets
46. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS, Reds
47. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
48. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres
49. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
50. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves

51. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins
52. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Giants
53. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds
54. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers
55. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
56. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Braves
57. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Blue Jays
58. Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves
59. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Astros
60. Brody Colvin, RHP, Phillies
61. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
62. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
63. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Phillies
64. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
65. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
66. Chris Dwyer, LHP, Royals
67. Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals
68. Trey McNutt, RHP, Cubs
69. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Padres
70. Chris Archer, RHP, Rays
71. Alex White, RHP, Indians
72. Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers
73. Jake McGee, LHP, Rays
74. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
75. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets

76. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Royals
77. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals
78. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers
79. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
80. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Marlins
81. Luis Heredia, LHP, Pirates
82. Delino Deshields, OF/2B, Astros
83. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks
84. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
85. Hank Conger, C, Angels
86. Yasmani Grandal, C, Reds
87. Andy Oliver, LHP, Tigers
88. Christian Colon, SS, Royals
89. Ian Krol, LHP, Athletics
90. Caleb Cowart, 3B, Angels
91. Eduardo Escobar, SS, White Sox
92. Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals
93. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
94. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins
95. A.J. Cole, RHP, Nationals
96. Guillermo Pimentel, OF, Mariners
97. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
98. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
99. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
100. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox
and…
101. Donavan Tate, OF, Padres
 

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Kevin Goldstein

 

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markpadden
2/28
Player cards release date?
Reply to markpadden
markpadden
2/28
I have asked this question here because I have received no answer from customer service (or anywhere else on the site). And yes, long-term projections are very relevant to the topic of evaluating subjective top prospect lists.
Reply to markpadden
mwhite6
2/28
I must ask: Approx. how many phone calls does it take to finalize this list?
Reply to mwhite6
kgoldstein
2/28
I have no idea, but it's a lot of minutes. I'd have to count everything during the whole year, all the calls, IMs, texts, emails. It's obviously quite a bit. I keep this running file called scoutingnotes.odf throughout the year split up by team. By the end of the year, it's massive.
Reply to kgoldstein
joshduggan
2/28
Where are all the Royals?
Reply to joshduggan
kgoldstein
2/28
Horrible system. No talent there.
Reply to kgoldstein
NYYanks826
2/28
In case anyone was wondering, this is how the list breaks down by team:

AL East
Yankees and Rays - 4
Blue Jays - 3
Red Sox and O's - 2

AL Central
Royals - 10(!)
Indians and Twins - 4
Tigers - 3
White Sox - 2

AL West
Angels - 5
A's and Mariners - 4
Rangers - 3

NL East
Braves - 6
Nationals - 4
Phillies and Mets - 3
Marlins - 2

NL Central
Pirates and Reds - 4
Cubs - 3
Astros - 2
Cardinals - 1
Brewers - Goose Egg

NL West
Padres - 5
Dodgers - 4
Giants, Rockies and Diamondbacks - 2
Reply to NYYanks826
dianagramr
2/28
Here is the breakdown by position:

RHP 34
LHP 16
OF 13
C 10
SS 9
3B 6
1B 5
2B 5
1B/OF 1
2B/SS 1
OF/2B 1
Reply to dianagramr
chabels
2/28
So much for TNSAPP.

KG, was it intentional to have exactly half the list pitchers and half position players?
Reply to chabels
BillJohnson
2/28
The RHP/LHP ratio intrigues me. As far as I can tell, lefties make up not much more than a quarter of ML pitchers, and probably throw less than a quarter of all innings, LOOGYs being what they are. However, they're a third of all pitching prospects on this list. A statistics-of-small-numbers effect? Influx of talented lefties compared to previous years? Overrating the impact that a bunch of guys realistically destined for LOOGYdom might have? Something else?
Reply to BillJohnson
JosephC
3/01
If you pick 50 marbles out of an infinite bag that's 1/4 white and 3/4 black, you'll get at least 16 white ones almost a sixth of the time (16.3%). It's always worth looking for selection biases, but the statistics don't help make the case this time.

I'd be curious about the survival rate of lefty pitchers in the minors myself - are they more or less likely to make the majors once signed than righties are? Are they more or less likely to become starters, or to stick as starters if they begin that way? Not too difficult of a data-mining task, but I don't know where to get the raw data.
Reply to JosephC
sde1015
3/02
Yeah, it's likely a small sample thing, but I do wonder if there might be something systematic as well: because it's harder to find good lefties than good righties, lefty prospects will tend to be rated higher than righty prospects of the same ability. If we think baseball talent is skewed (which it almost certainly is), then a small drop in talent level could lead to a large increase in the relative number of players at that level.
Reply to sde1015
hyprvypr
2/28
How good does this Spring feel to Royals fans?? I bet nearly as good as Spring 2013 does!!
Reply to hyprvypr
mattymatty2000
2/28
Probably far better than the season is going to feel.
Reply to mattymatty2000
drewsylvania
2/28
The real question is whether Moore knows what to do with prospects or young players. His history has involved burying them at times.
Reply to drewsylvania
buddaley
3/01
I count 5 Rays: Hellickson (9), Moore (10), Jennings (18), Archer (70), McGee (73).
Reply to buddaley
MANUdaMAN
2/28
Chris Archer (70) is listed as a Cub instead of a Ray.
Reply to MANUdaMAN
azynkewl
2/28
who were the other canidates for no.101?
Reply to azynkewl
OuagadougouGM
2/28
Tony Sanchez at 93? What am I missing? By the accounts I have read, he has near-elite defensive tools at catcher, and a bat/plate discipline that should lead to well above average OBP's. An 870 OPS in the FSL is nothing to sneeze at. I thought BA had him too low in the 40's!
Reply to OuagadougouGM
fawcettb
2/28
Agreed that this rating is ridiculous.
Reply to fawcettb
Yarky1
2/28
Health could be a concern, though it probably shouldn't be. I've asked about this before, but it seems to me that a first baseman or DH projected to have the same value with the same risk as a two-way catcher will be ranked much higher. Ultimately, it doesn't matter, though. If Sanchez turns out to be a very valuable player, people will look back on the lists and re-evaluate how they make future ones. This is all a lot of educated guesswork and the process is always being refined.
Reply to Yarky1
briankopec
2/28
The way I look at these lists is in tiers: Top 10, next 20, next 20 after that, then all the rest.

Really, there is VERY little difference between being the 50th ranked prospect and the 90th, despite all the hullabaloo.
Reply to briankopec
OuagadougouGM
2/28
True, but I think Tony Sanchez is more of a borderline top 30 prospect, so there's at least SOME difference. I would think he's a roughly equivalent prospect to Wilin Rosario, and I'd actually be more concerned about Rosario's health long-term than Sanchez's.
Reply to OuagadougouGM
KBarth
2/28
I gather you did not read the Pirates top 11 summary.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12400

Kevin has Sanchez as a 4-star prospect and 4th in the Pirates' system.

If you had read that, it is hard to imagine KG rating Sanchez a whole lot higher than he did, and you would have set your expectation that he wasn't going to be in the top 50, much less top 30. Or did you read the Pirates' section and decide that KG would change him to a 5-star prospect and bump him way up the list over the winter?
Reply to KBarth
Behemoth
2/28
It seems that Kevin sees Sanchez's ceiling as being above-average, rather than, say, elite or All-Star. I think this, coupled with the time missed due to injuty would suggest the ranking is reasonable. It's hardly an unusual position - Sanchez doesn't crack MLB's top 10 catching prospects, for example.
Reply to Behemoth
OuagadougouGM
2/28
Apparently so, but I think they are all wet. Unless getting hit in the face somehow psych's him out, I would expect him to be a top 10 MLB catcher for many years. His ceiling may not be elite, but I think his FLOOR is no worse than average.
Reply to OuagadougouGM
Behemoth
2/28
Also, the more detailed report suggests that there is still improvement required on both sides of the plate, and I assume that both of those are required for Sanchez to be above average. Players like Rosario have an elite ceiling, and are thus ranked higher.

Anyway, Kevin is doing a chat this afternoon, so you might do better to ask him yourself - link is on the front page.
Reply to Behemoth
OuagadougouGM
2/28
I will be in an airplane at that time. Anyway, it's not a big deal. Obviously, KG will rank guys where he thinks they should be ranked. I think he'll end up being too low on this ranking, but we'll see what happens.
Reply to OuagadougouGM
crperry13
2/28
You think that based on what?
Reply to crperry13
irussma
2/28
You mean other than #50 being a pitcher and #90 being a third baseman?

Sorry, just couldn't resist taking things a little literally.
Reply to irussma
flalaw
2/28
And Tony Sanchez's development as a player will proceed in the same fashion whether Kevin ranks him 1st, 50th or 100th (or leaves him off the list entirely), so no ranking on here is worth getting too up in arms over.
Reply to flalaw
kgoldstein
2/28
Wow, people sure are worked up about Tony Sanchez. I have a hard time blowing up a guy who I think will be a plus to plus-plus defender who hits .260 with 10-15 HR and walks. That's a really good player, but for me, that's not a five-star guy.
Reply to kgoldstein
mafrth77
2/28
That's not a top 15 guy at catcher?

Reply to mafrth77
kgoldstein
2/28
Actually by my count, he's well into the top 10 of catchers, no?
Reply to kgoldstein
OuagadougouGM
3/01
yeah, if you think he's only going to hit .260, your ranking makes sense. I was thinking his hit tool was good enough to put him more in the .280 or .290 range.
Reply to OuagadougouGM
Yarky1
3/01
I agree that there's no sense in getting worked up about any of this. You do a ton of work and provide us with great information. Very useful piece, but obviously, you're not an oracle, and, as someone else mentioned, a guy's ranking does affect his performance.

But it seems to me that a guy who is an above-average hitter for an MLB regular at his position who is also an outstanding defender is extremely valuable. I wonder if a bad defensive 1B projected to have the same WARP wouldn't be rated much higher. But maybe there's a good reason for that (bad defensive first baseman with great bats might flame out less often than two-way catchers, for example--I don't know, but I'd believe it if you said that was the case).
Reply to Yarky1
raygu1
2/28
OK, I will ask-where would Jerry Sands rank?
Reply to raygu1
jparks77
2/28
Jeremy Jeffress is pretty high on this list. Bam!
Reply to jparks77
jeffr92
2/28
Well, he figures: If I practice high, take the mound high, get a high ranking! Right?
Reply to jeffr92
NYYanks826
2/28
Where is the boundary between the 4 and the 5 star prospects? About where would the first 3 star prospect fall on this list?
Reply to NYYanks826
irussma
2/28
Jose Iglesias (#37) is the top four-star prospect on that list, so that boundary is between #36 and #37. There are no three-star prospects on this list.
Reply to irussma
mattcollins
2/28
Wilmer Flores is a 3-star, at 98....
Reply to mattcollins
irussma
2/28
Huh. Seems funny that he's on there ahead of some (admittedly borderline) 4-star prospects.
Reply to irussma
mhmosher
3/01
Flores shouldnt be that low to begin with.
Reply to mhmosher
russellj90
2/28
Kevin, who do you think you made the boldest statement on with your list?
Reply to russellj90
holgado
2/28
I've got some noms for these. On the optimistic end, John Lamb, Kyle Drabek, Chris Carter, and Stetson Allie. On the pessimistic side of things, Dustin Ackley, Dee Gordon, the aforementioned Jonathan Singleton, and the presently unaccounted for Travis d'Arnaud.
Reply to holgado
dawhipsaw
2/28
His Taillon ranking is also relatively optimistic compared to other rankings out there...
Reply to dawhipsaw
dianagramr
2/28
For a non-Christmas person like myself, today is Christmas. :-)
Reply to dianagramr
cfinberg
2/28
You mean the Top Prospects list, or the start of spring training? I can't even decide myself...
Reply to cfinberg
singledigit
2/28
How can a position player who has awful fielding tools be ranked #3 out of all prospects? Is his hit tool THAT good? Montero would have to hit like Pujols or Cabrera, and maybe even then some. You'd think there would be plenty more prospects who had more than one tool.

I'm finding it difficult to believe a guy who can't field(and looks like he never will)or run is the third best prospect in all of baseball.
Reply to singledigit
Schere
2/28
If he hits like Pujols or Cabrera, he's a HOF'er. That's not good enough for #3 on your list?
Reply to Schere
laynef
2/28
I think he's ranked #3 because the best case is that he hits like a top 5 first baseman every year while playing catcher, and the floor appears that he's *only* one of the top 5 first baseman every year.

Reply to laynef
kgoldstein
2/28
He's one of the top offensive prospects in the game and the bat is big league ready.
Reply to kgoldstein
hyprvypr
2/28
First, it's two tools, hitting and power, second, half the game is still offense.

Second, you can stick this guy at 1B or DH and still get tons of production from .300/.380/.520.

Finally, at this elite level, is much harder to find then fielding/speed. There's a handful of guys in the minors who project offensively like Montero but guys with '70' speed and fielding are a dime a dozen.
Reply to hyprvypr
mattcollins
2/28
Kevin,

How does this ranking fit in with your team rankings, and the stars assigned to players there? For example, Wilmer Flores is listed as a 3-star in the Mets system, but is above 4-star players on this list. Is this due to the fact that the Mets write-up was done early, and the 3-star/4-star barrier shifted? Did he have an especially good winter league showing? There are a few other examples like this, where a player is above or below players with a higher or lower star ranking.

Thanks for posting this list here, so I could comment with my question. The hard copy isn't as interactive, although it does come with nice writeups!
Reply to mattcollins
kgoldstein
2/28
After reader feedback, no more scaling the stars to fit top 50 or top 100. It was good feedback and I'm glad the scaling is gone.
Reply to kgoldstein
cooper7d7
2/28
KG-
Would you mind typing up a brief Unfiltered that outlines the old method that scaled the stars and the new method that, well, doesn't. I know you have commented on this in comments, but I don't know if the site's search function probes comments. It might be nice for future generations to understand what happened in 2011.

Thank you for all you do!
Reply to cooper7d7
rbross
2/28
It will be great when the upside numbers are released. I always appreciate comparing the qualitative assessment of prospects found here with the quantitative evaluations inherent to upside. When will upside be ready anyway?

Nevertheless, thanks for putting this together, Kevin.
Reply to rbross
dianagramr
2/28
Kevin .... could you have your editors include links in this article to your prior top 101 lists? Thanks!
Reply to dianagramr
PBSteve
2/28
I've put them all here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13085. It's also accessible on the home page on the blog menu.

Thanks for the suggestion!
Reply to PBSteve
dianagramr
2/28
Here's the year-by-year comparison: (apologies for formatting)

Team 2011 2010
Angels 5 5
Astros 2 2
A's 4 4
BlueJs 3 2
Braves 6 4
Brewers 0 2
Cards 1 1
Cubs 2 4
Dbacks 2 2
Dodgers 4 3
Giants 2 3
Indians 4 5
Mariner 4 3
Marlins 2 2
Mets 3 4
Nats 4 4
Orioles 2 4
Padres 5 4
Phils 3 2
Pirates 4 3
Rangers 3 4
Rays 5 7
Reds 4 3
RedSox 2 4
Rockies 2 2
Royals 10 5
Tigers 3 4
Twins 4 5
WSox 2 3
Yankees 4 1
Reply to dianagramr
DrSeth
2/28
How about putting their ages next to their names? I like to laugh when someone in my league drafts a 17 year old.
Reply to DrSeth
drmorris
2/28
Britton ended up much higher on this list than on any other I've seen. Hail to the sinker, baby.
Reply to drmorris
hyprvypr
2/28
I think not only is his sinker wicked, his supplementary pitches must work well because in addition to bushels of groundouts, he misses a lot of bats for a sinker-contact type.
Reply to hyprvypr
anderson721
2/28
How many guys fell out of the top 100 rather than "graduating"
to the bigs?
Reply to anderson721
flyingdutchman
3/01
I'm curious about that as well. Might be interesting to make a version of the list that notes if the player was listed last year, and where, and which players ranked at the player's 2011 spot in 2010 and 2009. The graduating to the bigs might be tougher to do--how do you calculate? They start 2011 on the 25 man roster? Or they got a certain number of at bats or innings in 2010?
Reply to flyingdutchman
crperry13
3/01
Can we have your top 700? I don't think you're putting in enough work on this already.
Reply to crperry13
gwguest
3/01
Yet, someone would ask who just missed the cut.
Reply to gwguest
cjrhgarmon
3/01
I've heard that the 2011 draft class looks very good (maybe close to 2005). Where would guys like Rendon, Cole, and Purke fall on this list, if they were eligible? Anyone else in the 2011 draft class who would be top 100 if they were in the minors right now?
Reply to cjrhgarmon
donwinningham
3/01
In the chat KG said that rendon and cole would be in the 7-12 range, nobody asked about purke.
Reply to donwinningham
Scott44
3/01
KG - Who are the 3 or 4 in the 50-100 range, that you think will have Trout-like or Moustakas-like rises?
Reply to Scott44