Overthinking It: PECOTA’s First-Half Hits and Misses

July 17, 2012

Sometimes you’re not quite sure what your next column is going to be about, and then you get a pair of tweets like this:

@ben_lindbergh @JHamrahi forgive me if I missed this, but could someone put together an article on PECOTA vs first half numbers?

— Greg Layton (@grogg) July 16, 2012

@ben_lindbergh @JHamrahi you know the drill: biggest hits & misses, the Melky/Sanchez trade, etc. Would be a fun read.

— Greg Layton (@grogg) July 16, 2012

And then you know exactly what your next column is going to be about.

Half of the fun of having a projection system is bragging about what went right. The other half is figuring out what went wrong. This article does a bit of both.

These are the position players and pitchers whose 2012 True Averages and Fair Run Averages PECOTA has come closest to and furthest away from predicting (minimum 200 plate appearances or 80 innings pitched). In keeping with BP tradition, each hit or miss is inexplicably accompanied by a haiku.

Batters

Hits

10. Will Venable

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.261	.263	-.002	.002

He can do it all
But can’t do it all that well
Check out away stats

9. Chris Davis

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.271	.272	-.001	.001

April was so kind
Might not be Quad-A after all!
All downhill from there

8. Jason Heyward

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.294	.293	.001	.001

Heyward back on track
Better power, baserunning
Best of all, not hurt

7. Andres Torres

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.258	.259	-.001	.001

Pagan and Torres
Similar before, but now
Pagan is better

6. Zack Cozart

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.247	.246	.001	.001

Cozart hasn’t hit
But whatever he does, he’s
Better than Janish

5. Jimmy Rollins

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.245	.246	-.001	.001

Back in ’07
Rollins won the MVP
But he won’t this year

4. Derek Jeter

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.267	.266	.001	.000

Can’t hit right-handers
Can’t hit the ball in the air
Still above average!

3. Darwin Barney

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.244	.244	.000	.000

Best shape of his life
Twenty more pounds of muscle
Not a power threat

2. Miguel Montero

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.276	.276	.000	.000

With the extension
D-Backs sought more of the same
And they're getting it

1. Brett Lawrie

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.268	.268	.000	.000

More valuable
In 43 games last year
than 85 now

Misses

10. James Loney

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.219	.272	-.053	.053

We knew he was bad
But not that he was this bad
Hits like a catcher

9. Edwin Encarnacion

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.338	.284	.054	.054

Had him on my team
But stopped playing fantasy
A few years too soon

8. Kurt Suzuki

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.195	.257	-.062	.062

Game’s most-played catcher
Over the past five seasons
Maybe he’s tired

7. Austin Jackson

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.331	.266	.065	.065

Tigers MVP:
Not Verlander or Miggy
But Austin Jackson

6. Andrew McCutchen

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.368	.303	.065	.065

Only 25
He leads the world in WARP
It’s sort of scary

5. Melky Cabrera

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.335	.267	.068	.068

Maybe these are the
Saddest of possible words:
Sanchez to KC

4. Nick Hundley

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.181	.250	-.069	.069

Used to like Petco
Hitting .120 there now
Petco conquers all

3. Carlos Ruiz

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.350	.280	.070	.070

Most catchers can’t hit
And also play good defense
Ruiz can do both

2. Mark Trumbo

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.354	.284	.070	.070

Mark Trumbo’s home runs
Fly the farthest in baseball
So says HitTracker

1. Mike Trout

Actual TAv	Predicted TAv	Diff	Absolute Diff
.364	.289	.075	.075

No 20-year-old
Has won an MVP award
That might change this year

Pitchers

Hits

10. Edwin Jackson

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.52	4.43	.09	.09

This one was easy
Jackson’s stats have barely budged
As good as he gets?

9. Joe Blanton

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.38	4.46	-.08	.08

Most NL home runs
And league’s lowest walk rate means
Many solo shots

8. Justin Verlander

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
3.24	.316	.08	.08

Barring a bad half
Verlander will likely win
A second Cy Young

7. Phil Hughes

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.38	4.31	.07	.07

Some writers said that
Hughes was unpredictable
Not for PECOTA

6. Hiroki Kuroda

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.62	4.69	-.07	.07

Life’s three certainties:
Death, taxes, and Kuroda’s
Sub-4.00 ERA

5. Stephen Strasburg

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
2.80	2.87	-.07	.07

He does everything
Except surprise PECOTA
Hype was justified

4. Matt Moore

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.17	4.21	-.04	.04

Not every arm
Can mature quite as quickly
As Clayton Kershaw’s

3. Lucas Harrell

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
5.01	5.03	-.02	.02

Some scouts said Harrell
Was a good fit for the pen
Those scouts were not wrong

2. Jordan Zimmermann

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
3.83	3.84	-.01	.01

Zim could be an ace
If he didn’t share a team
With Stephen Strasburg

1. Jake Westbrook

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.72	4.72	.00	.00

Dave Duncan is gone
Which made everyone worry
But Westbrook abides

Misses

10. Hector Noesi

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
6.29	5.02	1.27	1.27

Pineda is out
But so far the Mariners
Are losing the trade

9. Clay Buchholz

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
5.87	4.49	1.38	1.38

The scary thing is
This would have looked even worse
A couple months back

8. Felix Doubront

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.47	5.90	-1.43	1.43

When pitchers are off
They’re worse than PECOTA thought
Except for Doubront

7. Jeremy Hellickson

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
5.30	3.86	1.44	1.44

PECOTA thinks more
of Hellickson’s strikeout rate
Than most people do

6. Tim Lincecum

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
4.45	3.10	1.45	1.45

PECOTA believed
In what Lincecum achieved
But it was deceived

5. Ricky Romero

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
6.34	4.86	1.48	1.48

Okay, so maybe
Romero isn’t as good
As he looked last year

4. Matt Garza

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
5.60	4.06	1.54	1.54

More of his fly balls
Have become home runs this year
Than all last season

3. Ervin Santana

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
6.38	4.39	1.99	1.99

When in Anaheim
Santana might seem to be
Better than he is

2. Mike Minor

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
6.52	4.53	1.99	1.99

The NL’s answer
To poor Ervin Santana
Is named Mike Minor

1. Ubaldo Jimenez

Actual FRA	Predicted FRA	Diff	Absolute Diff
6.09	3.98	2.11	2.11

Things were looking up
Until Ubaldo’s last start
Now they’re looking down

Thanks to Colin Wyers for research assistance.

Thank you for reading

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Ben Lindbergh

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Behemoth

7/17

Warning you all now
All comments must be haikus
Or I will minus

Reply to Behemoth

Behemoth

7/17

Well, forty haikus
That is really quite a lot
Much more fun than prose

Reply to Behemoth

SGreenwell

7/17

This was awesome guys
The #want made me warm in pants
PECOTA's self-aware

Reply to SGreenwell

Behemoth

7/17

This was a good try
but too many syllables
In the final line

Reply to Behemoth

MikeLHenderson

7/17

Accurate reads, though
Gio Gonzalez wonders
"Hey, who's the ace here?"

Reply to MikeLHenderson

dianagramr

7/17

A 5-7-5
Rare play on the field or good
Winning percentage

Reply to dianagramr

Michael

7/17

No one cares about
FRA predictions; ERA
would be more useful

Reply to Michael

dianagramr

7/17

There once was a man from Prospectus ...

(oh ... wait) ....

Reply to dianagramr

WaldoInSC

7/19

Opining like homo erectus.
He was no ex-jock
spewing pablum and crock,
but instead some well-researched invectus.

Reply to WaldoInSC

jfranco77

7/17

Yes, Cutch is the best
His teammates clearly aren't
J-Up as savior?

Reply to jfranco77

kdierman

7/17

Love for Dan Haren
Is what Pecota Proposed
Sadly a Runaway Groom

Reply to kdierman

kdierman

7/17

Lust for Dan Haren
Is what PECOTA thirsted
Rejected again

Reply to kdierman

dianagramr

7/17

Your skill with this verse
Lead to next year's annual
Haiku Prospectus

Reply to dianagramr

dianagramr

7/17

Someone has gone and
Banged all the comments to date
Not a haiku fan?

Reply to dianagramr

Behemoth

7/17

Positive ratings
Have been given out to all
Who make the haikus

Reply to Behemoth

Oleoay

7/17

Minus Diana?
Her grit is valued highly,
Queen of anagrams.

Reply to Oleoay

dianagramr

7/17

Richard is quite kind
Anagrams are fun to do
Haiku tough but cool

http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2012/07/11/the-vorgs-all-haiku-1st-half-review2nd-half-preview/

Reply to dianagramr

Oleoay

7/17

Shameless plug for Di.
Whiffleball on tee, I did.
A home run she hit.

Reply to Oleoay

zasxcdfv

7/17

Mike Trout is so good
At everything in baseball
Shows much #want not #slack

Reply to zasxcdfv

Oleoay

7/17

Had Edwin myself.
Traded him to Stromboli.
For next gambling spree.