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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 14: This is Gonna Be Ugly

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August 6, 2012

Effectively Wild Episode 14: "This is Gonna Be Ugly"

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dsilvers
8/06
The Yuni point was excellent. Re-signing him was kind of weird, but you figured that he would not do a huge amount of damage playing 45 games or so this year. No one figured that he would have played in roughly half of the Royals games this year. He lived down to most folks' expectations - tolerable in a utility guy with limited exposure, but not at all in a semi-regular. He outlived whatever usefulness he might have had fairly quickly. The Royals did the right thing in cutting their loss.

As to the The Kids: I would also agree that it is too early to tell. Hosmer has regressed this year, Moustakas has stepped up (not so much lately, but still... and is a much, much better defender than most folks expected). Myers is getting closer, as is Odorizzi. Most of The Kids are still fairly young, and have room to grow and get more consistent - not many guys step up at the show at 21 and produce from day 1. And you can't plan for the team to suddenly become the Tommy John capital of MLB. Some definite bad luck there.

Overall, 2013 is probably not realistic, with so many arms recovering from TJ. I don't see a lot of reason for the Royals to try to pick up a big name FA pitcher this offseason unless someone REALLY wants to come to KC on a non-blockbuster contract to 1) help stabilize the team in 2013 and 2) lead the team in 2014, which is when I think the Royals have a much better chance of really pushing the other teams in the division. I'd love to see them get tons better sooner, but 2014 is more realistic, IMO
Reply to dsilvers
bornyank1
8/06
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that Yuni playing so often wasn't the plan, but as I wrote when the Royals signed him, "When the best way to put a positive spin on an acquisition is to point out that he won’t play much, there might have been a better man for the job." Then I wrote this: "What’s more, Betancourt’s bat will fall further below the positional baseline when he’s not at short. While he won’t make many plate appearances if all goes as planned, there is some danger that Betancourt could metastasize. If Johnny Giavotella’s August and September struggles persist, Betancourt could find himself in a more regular role, and he’ll always be an injury away from a starting job."

And I'm not even that good at making predictions! (In that same article, I praised the Casey Blake signing and panned the Jason Kubel signing.) So I don't think it was impossible to see it coming. There just wasn't any way it would work out well.
Reply to bornyank1
JPinPhilly
8/06
Ben, you both seemed to hint at the Royals not being able to upgrade at 2B/SS this offseason but Alcides Escobar is having a nice little season at the plate. Is he that bad defensively that you think they'll still need to upgrade at some point?
Reply to JPinPhilly
bornyank1
8/07
Sam mentioned that it's tough to upgrade at those positions across baseball right now, which could be the case, but I think the Royals could be okay there. Escobar actually has the worst FRAA in the majors this season, but I think that should probably be exhibit A when people talk about not putting too much stock in a half-season's worth of defensive stats. Escobar's glove might not be as good as its reputation, but I doubt it's that bad. (It might not be bad at all.) And as you said (and as I wrote last week), his bat has picked up in what seems like a sustainable way. As for second, I'm a believer in Johnny Giavotella, who's hitting .328/.415/.492 in Omaha, so I think promoting him would be an upgrade.
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dsilvers
8/08
[lol] true enough sir, true enough. When the best you can hope for is "it won't be too bad", it's time to be thinking of plan 2. Or 3. Or 4.

Reply to dsilvers