Future Shock: State of the Systems, AL Central

This year’s State Of The Systems features some new
categories, so before we get going, some explanation.

• 2007 Rookies: Simple enough: what first-year
  players will contribute in the big leagues this year.
• Minor League Road Trip: A common question I
  get via e-mail goes something like this: “I live in [minor league
  town], who should I look for?” For each team I’ll identify two
  full-season affiliates that should have compelling squads. Keep in
  mind that this is a research-driven hypothesis, and that spring
  performances, injuries and organizational needs can mean certain players
  don’t end up where expected.
• Pivotal Season: For this category, I’ll identify
  one player who is at a crossroads in his young career.
• I Like Him Better Than Most/Don’t Believe The Hype:
  Last year’s selections have already been reviewed, and I think overall, I
  did pretty well here; they’re always among the most popular, so they
  return.
• Pedroia/Clippard Award: Named after Red Sox
  infielder Dustin and Yankees right-hander Tyler, this is the player who
  fans of that team tend to overrate by going on statistics alone.
• Jackson/Griffin Award: In the interest of
  fairness, this award goes to the player who is the opposite. The tools
  are certainly there, but where is the performance? The award is named
  after two of the all-time tools busts in draft history: outfielder Jeff
  Jackson (Philles first round, 1989) and triple-digit flamethrower Colt
  Griffin (Royals first round, 2001).
• Get Your Bags Ready: When the trade deadline comes
  down, prospects are always part of the discussion. Who could be
  available? Who do teams want? Who’s a likely candidate to be moved
  because he’s blocked?

Chicago White Sox

• 2007 Rookies: It’s a veteran team, and it’s going
  to stay that way. Top prospects Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields

  are blocked, with Brian Anderson likely getting the first shot at
  center field, though he will be on a short leash. For now, the team isn’t
  moving Fields to the outfield, meaning both he and Sweeney will return to
  Triple-A. Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger seems a lock to make the
  team, and even has an outside chance at the fifth-starter job, though the
  team is still hoping for a miracle from Phillies flame-out Gavin Floyd.
  Acquired in the Brandon McCarthy trade, lefty John Danks is
  the team’s top prospect, but would be best served by some more time in
  Triple-A, though he’s definitely the long-term answer in the rotation.
  Also acquired from Texas, Nick Masset should stick in the bullpen; while his stats are uninspiring, his scouting reports are glowing,
  especially the ones on his short stints as a reliever.

• Minor League Road Trip: Assuming Fields and
  Sweeney fail to break camp with the team, Triple-A Charlotte is the place
  to see the future. What was a rotation loaded with minor-league veterans
  last year becomes prospect-laden with Danks and 2005 first-round pick Lance
  Broadway leading the way, possibly joined by the end of the year by 2006 first-rounder Kyle
  McCulloch and re-acquired lefty Gio Gonzalez.

• Pivotal Season: After a breakout campaign in 2005,
  everything fell apart for left-hander Ray Liotta last year: he
  found himself back in High-A with a composite 5.89 ERA in 28 games.
  At 24, it’s now or never.

• I Like Him Better Than Most: Righty Oneli Perez began 2006 in Low-A, finished in Double-A and had an ERA under 1.00 at all
  three stops, finishing with an 0.81 mark in 77.2 innings while giving up
  just 46 hits and whiffing 91. He’s an almost-sidearmer who could struggle
  against lefties, but with expanded pitching staffs in the minors, there’s
  room for a ROOGY these days.

• Don’t Believe The Hype: Pitching in Double-A as a
  20-year-old, Gio Gonzalez struck out over a batter per inning, so
  there’s some good stuff there. At the same time, he has major control
  issues, and his lanky, sub-six-foot frame leaves many wondering if he has
  the durability to start in the big leagues.

• Pedroia/Clippard Award: Broadway’s 2.74 ERA last
  year is impressive, but Birmingham is a pitchers’ park, his strikeout rate
  was mediocre, and so is his stuff.

• Jackson/Griffin Award: Right-hander Adam Russell

  has Jeff Juden‘s size (6-8, 250) and velocity (consistently sitting
  at 93-96 mph), and about as much success with it thanks to a lack of
  movement and an inability to find a consistent breaking ball.

• Get Your Bags Ready?: They’re not moving Fields,
  and Joe Crede is locked in at third base until 2008. One of them
  is going to move on to a different organization eventually, maybe even by the trade deadline. If
  things are going well in the standings, Fields is their top trading chip,
  and Kenny Williams likes to deal.

Cleveland Indians

• 2007 Rookies: Very few pure rookies, but plenty of
  young talent as guys like third baseman Andy Marte and left-hander Jeremy
  Sowers spend their first full year in the big leagues. The bullpen
  could features legitimate rookies like lefty Juan Lara and
  right-hander Edward Mujica. Top prospect Adam Miller could
  reach the big leagues by mid-season with a strong start at Triple-A.

• Minor League Road Trip: As with the White Sox,
  Triple-A is the place to be. The Buffalo outfield will probably consist
  of three Top 10 Prospects in (from left to right) Trevor Crowe, Brian
  Barton and Brian Snyder. Miller will front a rotation that could
  include Rafael Perez and Fausto Carmona, while intriguing
  power lefty Tony Sipp is the likely closer.

• Pivotal Season: Since being drafted in the first
  round out of Ball State in 2003, Snyder has consistently teased the
  organization with his tools, and frustrated with his lofty strikeout totals.
  Another 150+ strikeout season with a sub-800 OPS will having him
  teetering on the line between prospect and Quad-A slugger.

• I Like Him Better Than Most: 2006 second-round pick Josh Rodriguez isn’t really a shortstop, but he could end up as an
  offensive-minded second baseman who provides above-average power for the
  position.

• Don’t Believe The Hype: 2006 first-rounder David
  Huff has below-average velocity and relies primarily on commanding the
  strike zone and keeping hitters off balance with his very good changeup.
  His ceiling is limited.

• Pedroia/Clippard Award: Southpaw Scott Lewis led the minor leagues with a 1.48 ERA last year, but he’s yet to have the
  reins taken off when it comes to pitch counts and his finesse-only style
  will catch up to him as he moves up.

• Jackson/Griffin Award: Snyder has plus power,
  speed, and arm strength, but if he can’t make more contact, it’s just not
  going to matter.

• Get Your Bags Ready?: The way things are going, it
  looks like the Tribe might be more likely to trade veterans in order to
  make room for prospects, as opposed to moving prospects for established
  talent. Jake Westbrook could be attractive to some teams while
  making room in the rotation for Miller.

Detroit Tigers

• 2007 Rookies: Nope, that was last year, as Justin
  Verlander and Joel Zumaya helped carry the team to the American
  League title. Rule 5 pick Ed Campusano has looked solid in camp
  and has a good chance to stick as a situational reliever.

• Minor League Road Trip: Double-A Erie should
  have 2006 first-round pick Andrew Miller fronting the
  rotation, and whispers are that uber-prospect Cameron Maybin could
  skip a level and join him there. The infield should have
  interesting-but-one-dimensional sluggers Jeff Larrish and Kody
  Kirkland on the corners as well, with righty Jair Jurrjens

  lining up behind Miller.

• Pivotal Season: Kirkland hit 22 home runs last year
  at Erie, but everything else about his season was a nightmare, from the
  .217 average to the 24 errors, to the 157 strikeouts. Turning 24 in June
  and returning to Double-A, he should be further along in
  translating his tools to performance.

• I Like Him Better Than Most: Campusano was one of
  the better Rule 5 picks in December. In the end, he’ll be more than
  just a LOOGY, as his plus-fastball/plus-slider combination makes him
  equally effective against hitters from both sides.

• Don’t Believe The Hype: Righty Dallas Trahern led the Florida State League with four complete games while finishing
  fourth with a 3.30 ERA, but while his sinker generates a truckload of
  ground balls, how much faith can one have on a guy with a strikeout rate
  of 5.35 per nine innings at High-A?

• Pedroia/Clippard Award: Shortstop Michael
  Holliman hit .278/.386/.501 at Low-A West Michigan last year,
  finishing among the Midwest League’s top five in walks, total bases and
  slugging. So what’s the problem? Well, he was 24 years old in the
  Midwest League and isn’t really a shortstop.

• Jackson/Griffin Award: Righty Eulogio de la Cruz can hit triple-digits with his fastball and has an outstanding curve. So
  why doesn’t he dominate? Scouts are baffled as well, but command problems
  are the primary issue, as is often the case.

• Get Your Bags Ready?: If the Tigers make another
  run at the playoffs, outfielder Brent Clevlen is the one hitter
  teams will be asking about, and Maybin’s rapid rise could make him
  expendable. With a young, talented and full rotation, arms like De La
  Cruz and righty Jordan Tata could also draw some interest.

Kansas City Royals

• 2007 Rookies: Hey, they got Alex Gordon,
  what else do you want? Gordon should be an immediate impact player, and
  is the best bet to be the Royals’ representative at the All-Star game.
  Rule 5 selection Joakim Soria should have no problem earning a
  bullpen job and no problem being a decent reliever, while power arm Ryan
  Braun is also fighting for a relief role in spring training.

• Minor League Road Trip: Let’s forget about
  the big-name prospects for a bit, as guys like Billy Butler, Luke
  Hochevar, Chris Lubanski and Mitch Maier could all be
  shuffling teams quite a bit this year. The more intriguing roster might be at Low Class A Burlington. While these guys are mostly high-risk players who offer
  little in the way of guarantees, players like left-hander Brent Fisher;
  infielders Jeff Bianchi, Chris McConnell and Jason Taylor;
  and outfielders Joe Dickerson and Derrick Robinson give the
  Bees more prospects than they have had in years.

• Pivotal Season: A million-dollar bonus baby as a
  draft-and-follow, right-hander Luis Cota has been a massive disappointment
  since signing, culminating with a 7.09 ERA at the not-so-friendly confines
  of High Desert last year. The bad news: he’s returning to High-A.
  The good news: the Royals moved their affiliate to Wilmington in the
  Carolina League.

• I Like Him Better Than Most: Lefty Danny
  Christensen is a Tommy John survivor who held his own at High Desert with three average pitches and decent command. He’s one to watch at Double-A
  this year and could work his way into the back of the rotation by 2008.

• Don’t Believe The Hype: Acquired from the White Sox
  for Mike MacDougal, righty Tyler Lumsden is a big-bodied
  lefty with excellent velocity, but the stats just don’t match the stuff,
  especially when it comes to missing bats.

• Pedroia/Clippard Award: First baseman Justin
  Huber saw his production slip in 2006 along with his opportunity, and
  despite a patient approach and good hitting skills, he’s probably just
  short of being an everyday player there.

• Jackson/Griffin Award: Robinson, a fourth-round
  pick last June out of a Florida high school is an absolute burner who also
  features a little bit of pop, but he’s incredibly raw and needs to greatly
  improve his approach and contact ability to improve his stock.

• Get Your Bags Ready?: The Royals won’t be in a
  position to shore up the big-league team at mid-season. If anything,
  they’ll be adding prospects, not trading for them.

Minnesota Twins

• 2007 Rookies: Nothing on the offensive side of
  things, and very little in pitching. Matt Garza and Glen
  Perkins are competing for rotation jobs, but the team is leaning
  towards beginning the year with Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz

  in the rotation for reasons apparent only to them. Garza’s
  mysterious neck pain and headaches this spring aren’t helping matters,
  either. Once a highly regarded arm, righty J.D. Durbin is out of
  options and could land a bullpen job.

• Minor League Road Trip: Provided the big-league club breaks camp with a veteran rotation, the staff at Triple-A
  Rochester will be impressive with Garza, Perkins and Kevin Slowey,
  who arguably has the best command in the minors. The lineup will open
  with the one-two punch of former first-round pick Denard Span and
  second baseman of the future Alexi Casilla.

• Pivotal Season: Other than a solid half-season at
  High-A Fort Myers in 2005, third baseman Matt Moses had done
  little to justify his selection in 2003’s first round, collapsing at
  Double-A last year with a .249/.303/.386 season while his defense
  continued a disturbing downward slide.

• I Like Him Better Than Most: Dutch lefty Alexander
  Smit had his fair share of struggles over the last few years, but
  thrived with a late-season move to the rotation at Low-A Beloit last
  season, with a 2.43 ERA in 13 starts and more than twice as many
  strikeouts (98) than hits allowed (44) in 74 innings. The 2007 season in
  the Florida State League could be his coming-out party.

• Don’t Believe The Hype: Not that I don’t like
  Slowey: I like him plenty. However, his 1.88 ERA and 151-to-22
  strikeout-to-walk ratio puts him among the best pitchers in the minors on
  a statistical level, and he’s just not that good. It’s all about command
  for Slowey, and he’s likely an effective number-three or number-four starter in
  the end, as opposed to any kind of star.

• Pedroia/Clippard Award: First baseman Erik Lis led the Midwest League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging
  in 2006, but as a polished college first baseman playing in the Midwest
  League, what else was he supposed to do? He’s a bad defensive player
  without a big power ceiling, and he’s well behind the standard development
  curve.

• Jackson/Griffin Award: Span is the best athlete in
  the system and an instinctual, graceful center fielder…but he’s also a
  .280 hitter with few secondary skills who has yet to
  figure out how to turn his blazing speed into an offensive asset.

• Get Your Bags Ready?: The Twins system is highly
  lopsided in the favor of pitching, and any number of young, Latin American
  power arms like Eduardo Morlan, Yohan Pino and Oswaldo
  Sosa could be available if the Twins look to make a deadline move.