Do We Know When to Worry?

Image credit: © Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

In an episode of Psych, a character named Diddle is murdered for being in the wrong place at the wrong time and learning too much about a criminal operation. The main character, Shawn, says to another, Gus, “look at the bright side, you have the opportunity to make Diddle’s dream come true [and reunite your old college friend group].” One of the college friends, Tony, replies with, “Yeah, but look at the dark side. Being together makes a bad situation worse.”

A baseball season is a long time to be together, whether in the context of a team or the relationship between a fan and a team. One could casually talk about any number of things that were drastically different a month ago. Gerrit Cole was erratic from start to start after coming back from rehabbing an elbow injury. Gavin Lux looked like he was playing himself out of the league. Tyler Fitzgerald didn’t even exist. Just think about how many times you’ve heard “since the All-Star Break” on recent broadcasts. When a season is as long and constant as MLB’s, remembering what happened most recently can be the easiest way to remember how you ended up where you are. But doing that at every turn is an easy way to twist yourself into knots.

Consider a league-wide lens. Here are the standings between July 17, when games and the unofficial second half resumed, and Monday:

A look at the dark side would tell us things have been a little weird. Oakland leading the American League is remarkable, even if they’ve been better than what many expected of them this year. More than two-thirds of the league is within two games of .500, a group that includes division leaders and others that have become (or stayed) laughingstocks. The Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Astros (slowly, always the Astros) are generating positive storylines for their surges. If we choose compassion and simply eliminate the White Sox, the two worst teams have been the Braves and Phillies.

The Braves’ issues really started back in the first week of the season when Spencer Strider went down with his second Tommy John, and they’ve hardly stopped. Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Reynaldo López, Max Fried, and Sean Murphy either remain or were on the IL. If Alex Anthopoulos was playing Oregon Trail instead of baseball games, the screen might read “You have died of dysentery” by now. That makes their ability to stay in the race noteworthy.

As for the Phillies, things haven’t been right since arguably the London series: It appears they were unable to shake the unique brand of chaos that gets created when playing the Mets on an international stage. They have had injuries, too, if less severe and pervasive than Atlanta’s. Taijuan Walker returned last night from a months-long blister issue. Ranger Suárez is expected to miss another 10 days with back pain, and Austin Hays just hit the IL with a hamstring injury. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto have all struggled since coming back from injuries without going on rehab stints. But it’s more worrisome that Philadelphia has avoided season-long injuries to big stars and just can’t string together more than a couple of quality games at a time. They rotate between sour performances on the mound, in the box, and on the field. It’s like they’re playing a game of Russian roulette with five bullets instead of one.

Those are the issues of the two teams struggling most but they’re not alone. The Guardians have played tedious but cromulent baseball and have lost ground to a Twins team that has played slightly better. The same thing goes for the Mariners and Astros, the Orioles and Yankees, and the Dodgers with the Padres and Diamondbacks. But how much have the last few weeks really impacted the playoff race, the one thing anyone is ever really worrying about?

Four of the American League teams that were in the playoffs before the break remain there, and all of them maintain a position that is effectively the same from how it would benefit or challenge them in October. Five of the National League teams remain and only the Braves would lose any home games. In the big picture, not much has changed, and pretty much every situation in the standings that existed before the All-Star Break is still a distinct possibility.

What’s different is the way the small details have come together to make that big picture. Each division has seen its lead tighten or change hands except the NL Central.  Things have become more uncomfortable and felt less tenable. Like a pair of pants that weren’t as snug a month ago, it feels bad. But maybe it shouldn’t. A look at our projected standings for the rest of the season has all 12 of the current playoff teams⁠—the ones in the second and fourth columns above⁠—as the ones who will make the postseason. The only difference is that PECOTA projects the Yankees to sneak ahead of the Orioles to win the AL East. Part of this is just how projection systems work; most of the season is over, so the cement is nearly dry. Projecting big changes would be irresponsible, even if that generally conservative design of a given system is how they could miss subtle but important details from recent stretches.

However, something else is also at work here. It gets talked about a lot less than the most recent injury or terrible plate appearances or purported lack of urgency, or whatever else your preferred contender is dealing with. The wins that these teams have banked are not worth less just because they’ve aged like bad milk over the last few weeks. By playing as well as they did early on, they created as much margin for error as possible, which is pretty much the name of the game in the regular season. From March through April, the composite picture is what matters most. Moments do not, because those are reserved for October and all it takes to have some is getting there. You might argue that a team playing poorly now portends playing poorly closer to the playoffs, and going home much earlier than they want. But that’s different than being in a bad position, or being a bad team, or morphing into a team that’s a shell of itself.

In the Psych episode mentioned above, Gus responds to Tony’s goofy suggestion to look at the dark side by asking “Who talks like that?” Something similar applies to talented teams that endure low periods of play during a long season. It’s not about having endless optimism. Rather, it’s about knowing what’s already happened and seeing it from a bird’s eye view. Time sands over the rough spots in any story, the losing streaks and the guys punching walls. In the end you forget how it all started; what matters is how it ended.