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April 4, 2010

Pre-Season Predictions

Staff Picks for 2010

by Baseball Prospectus

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League Standings

AL East

Team Average Total
Boston Red Sox 1.7 (6) 20
2t New York Yankees 2.2 (2) 26
2t Tampa Bay Rays 2.2 (4) 26
Baltimore Orioles 4.2 50
Toronto Blue Jays 4.8 58

AL Central

Team Average Total
Minnesota Twins 1.7 (7) 20
Chicago White Sox 2.2 (4) 26
Detroit Tigers 3.0 (1) 36
Cleveland Indians 3.2 38
Kansas City Royals 5.0 60

AL West 

Team Average Total
Texas Rangers 1.6 (7) 19
Seattle Mariners 2.4 (2) 29
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2.5 (2) 30
Oakland Athletics 3.5 (1) 4.2

Individual Awards

AL MVP

  1. 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 8, 72 (6)
  2. C Joe Mauer, Twins 8, 57 (1)
  3. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 4, 32 (2)
  4. 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 4, 30 (2)
  5. 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 3, 20 (1)
  6. 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 12 
  7. 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
  8. CF Torii Hunter, Angels 1, 5
  9. C Victor Martinez, Red Sox 1, 5
  10. CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 1, 5 

AL Cy Young 

  1. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 7, 31 (5) 
  2. Justin Verlander, Tigers 7, 22 (3) 
  3. Jon Lester, Red Sox 7, 21 (1) 
  4. CC Sabathia, Yankees 4, 14 (2) 
  5. Zack Greinke, Royals 4, 6 
  6. Javier Vazquez, Yankees 1, 5 (1)
  7. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 1, 3 
  8. Fausto Carmona, Indians 1, 1
  9. Matt Garza, Rays 1, 1
  10. Rick Porcello, Tigers 1, 1

AL RotY

  1. SP Brian Matusz, Orioles 10, 44 (7) 
  2. SP Neftali Feliz, Rangers 9, 23 (1) 
  3. CF Austin Jackson, Tigers 6, 20 (3) 
  4. SP Wade Davis, Rays 3, 9 (1) 
  5. C Carlos Santana, Indians 3, 9 (1) 
  6. C J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays  1, 1
  7. 1B Chris Carter, Oakland 1, 1 
  8. SP Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays 1, 1 
  9. 2B Sean Rodriguez, Rays 1, 1 

National League Standings

NL East 

Team Average Total
Philadelphia Phillies 1.2 (10) 14
Atlanta Braves 1.8 (2) 22
New York Mets 3.5 42
Florida Marlins 3.6 43
Washington Nationals 4.9 59

NL Central

Team Average Total
St. Louis Cardinals 1.0 (12) 12
Chicago Cubs 2.8 34
Milwaukee Brewers 2.9 35
Cincinnati Reds 3.4 41
Houston Astros 5.3 63
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.6 67

NL West

Team Average Total
1t Colorado Rockies 1.8 (6) 21
1t Los Angeles Dodgers 1.8 (5) 21
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.0 (1) 36
San Francisco Giants 3.5 42
San Diego Padres 5.0 60

Individual Awards

NL MVP

  1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 11, 95 (6) 
  2. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies 8, 61 (3) 
  3. SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 4, 30 (2) 
  4. 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers 3, 19 
  5. CF Jay Bruce, Reds 1, 10 (1)
  6. RF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 2, 10 
  7. CF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 1, 7
  8. LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5
  9. RF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 1, 5
  10. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 1, 5
  11. LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 1, 5

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay, Phillies 10, 36 (5) 
  2. Tim Lincecum, Giants 7, 23 (2)
  3. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks 4, 16 (3) 
  4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3, 9 (1)   
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies 1, 5 (1) 
  6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals 3, 5 
  7. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals 2, 4 
  8. Tommy Hanson, Braves 2, 4
  9. Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks 1, 1
  10. Johan Santana, Mets 1, 1

NL RotY

  1. RF Jason Heyward, Braves 12, 56 (11) 
  2. SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 10, 30 
  3. SS Alcides Escobar, Brewers 5, 9 (1)
  4. 3B David Freese, Cardinals 1, 3   
  5. 1B Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 2, 2 
  6. SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds 2, 2
  7. 1B Ike Davis, Mets 1, 1
  8. SP Jaime Garcia, Cardinals 1, 1 

Individual Ballots:  

 


Will Carroll

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Rangers
Rays* Indians Mariners
Yankees Tigers Athletics
Orioles Twins Angels
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Kevin Youkilis
  3. Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young

  1. CC Sabathia
  2. Josh Beckett
  3. Rick Porcello

AL RotY

  1. Austin Jackson
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Kyle Drabek

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Diamondbacks
Braves* Brewers Giants
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Pirates Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
  Reds  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Prince Fielder
  3. Justin Upton

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Jeff Euston 

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Rays White Sox Mariners
Red Sox* Twins Rangers
Yankees Indians Angels
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Carlos Santana
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Brewers Giants
Mets Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Troy Tulowitzki
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Chase Utley

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Jaime Garcia

Ken Funck 

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Angels
Red Sox* White Sox Rangers
Rays Tigers Mariners
Blue Jays Indians Athletics
Orioles Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Mark Teixeira
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Kevin Youkilis

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Jon Lester

AL RotY

  1. Austin Jackson 
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves Cubs Dodgers *
Mets Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Troy Tulowitzki
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Chris Carpenter
  3. Roy Halladay

NL RotY 

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Kevin Goldstein

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Rangers
Yankees* Tigers Athletics
Rays Twins Mariners
Orioles Indians Angels
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander

AL RotY
Brian Matusz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Reds Rockies
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Brewers Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw

NL RotY
Jason Heyward


Joe Hamrahi

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Rangers
Red Sox* White Sox Angels
Rays Indians Mariners
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Mark Teixeira
  2. Evan Longoria
  3. Joe Mauer

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Carlos Santana
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Cubs Rockies
Mets Reds Giants
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Justin Upton

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Tommy Hanson

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Shawn Hoffman

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Rangers
Rays* Indians Mariners
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Alex Rodrigues
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Evan Longoria 

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Zack Greinke
  3. CC Sabathia

AL RotY

  1. Wade Davis
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Carlos Santana 

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Marlins Cubs Diamondbacks
Mets Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Manny Ramirez

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Johan Santana 

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Pedro Alvarez 

Jay Jaffe

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Rays Twins Rangers
Yankees* Tigers Mariners
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays    
  Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. CC Sabathia
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Austin Jackson 

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves Brewers Rockies*
Marlins Cubs Giants
Mets Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Clayton Kershaw
  3. Tim Lincecum

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Aroldis Chapman 

Christina Kahrl

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Rays* Twins Mariners
Yankees Indians Rangers
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young

  1. Jon Lester
  2. Felix Hernandez
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Neftali Feliz
  2. Wade Davis
  3. Chris Carter (Oakland)

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Cardinals Rockies
Phillies* Reds Giants
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Brewers Diamondbacks
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Prince Fielder

NL Cy Young

  1. Ubaldo Jimenez
  2. Adam Wainwright
  3. Dan Haren

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Pedro Alvarez

David Laurila

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Tigers Rangers
Rays* Twins Angels
Yankees Indians Mariners
Orioles White Sox Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria 
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Victor Martinez

AL Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Matt Garza

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. J.P. Arencibia

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Cardinals Dodgers
Phillies* Reds Rockies
Mets Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Cubs Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Jay Bruce
  2. Matt Kemp
  3. Ryan Braun

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tommy Hanson
  3. Edwin Jackson

NL RotY

  1. Alcides Escobar
  2. David Freese
  3. Jason Heyward

Marc Normandin

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Twins Rangers
Rays* Tigers Angels
Yankees White Sox Mariners
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Kevin Youkilis

AL Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Austin Jackson

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Prince Fielder
  3. Chase Utley

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Clayton Kershaw

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Aroldis Chapman 

John Perrotto

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Twins Athletics
Rays* Indians Angels
Yankees White Sox Rangers
Blue Jays Tigers Mariners
Orioles Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Dustin Pedroia
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Torii Hunter

AL Cy Young

  1. CC Sabathia
  2. Felix Hernandez
  3. Fausto Carmona

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Austin Jackson
  3. Sean Rodriguez

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Cubs Rockies
Marlins Brewers Giants
Mets Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Andre Ethier

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Roy Halladay

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Ike Davis 

Matt Swartz

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Mariners
Red Sox* White Sox Rangers
Rays Tigers Angels
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Joe Mauer
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. Dustin Pedroia

AL Cy Young

  1. Javier Vazquez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Wade Davis

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Reds Dodgers
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Brewers Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Chris Carpenter

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Alcides Escobar 

29 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

pschoenke

It's great that the Twins will be trading for Matt Garza early in the season! [typo on AL Cy Young]

Apr 04, 2010 14:19 PM
rating: 2
 
trebek90

I buy into Fausto Carmona's resurgence and strong Spring Training, but third in the CY Young voting might be a little premature.

Apr 04, 2010 16:00 PM
rating: 0
 
One Flap Down

Sean Rodriguez isn't eligible for Rookie of the Year, he has 192 career AB. Edinson Volquez anybody?

Apr 04, 2010 16:34 PM
rating: 3
 
redsfan1470

Jay Bruce - NL MVP? I can only dream...

Apr 04, 2010 16:36 PM
rating: 0
 
Lou Doench

I'd expect Our Pal Joey to win one first...

Apr 05, 2010 08:26 AM
rating: 0
 
Wharton93

Bring back Predicatron... I would like to defend my 2008 Top Ten finish...

Apr 04, 2010 16:36 PM
rating: 2
 
Andy

Why was that taken away?

Apr 04, 2010 16:41 PM
rating: 2
 
kjgilber

Either the Red Sox average is wrong or the total is wrong.

Apr 04, 2010 17:56 PM
rating: 1
 
maphal

Will Carroll is now the second person after Buck Showalter to pick the Pirates to finish ahead of the Reds. While the Reds are maybe an 80 win team, they have FAR more talent than the 65 win Pirates. Weird prediction.

Apr 04, 2010 19:32 PM
rating: 1
 
grenadewade

Following is the voting pattern for the Twins in the AL Central:
1st: 7, 2nd: 3, 3rd: 1, and 4th: 1

And likewise for the Rockies in the NL West:
1st: 6, 2nd: 4, 3rd: 1, and 4th: 1

Will's vote is the lone "outlier" in selecting each of these teams to finish fourth in their divisions. Is this a case of being different just for the sake of being different? While the AL Central and NL West are both likely to be competitive divisions, I have a hard time envisioning either the Twins or Rockies falling below third place in either race.

Also, is BP the only publication on the planet where the Rays are receiving more first place votes than the Yankees?

Apr 04, 2010 19:52 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Regarding Will...
Minnesota is in the north and pretty cold so people are more likely to get sick.
Colorado's high up and it is hard to breathe and recover from injury.
So Will's probably voting based on overall team health.

:)

Apr 04, 2010 20:03 PM
rating: 1
 
John Douglass

Regarding Will...

He values health, and maybe figures the Twins and Rockies will suffer the worst of the injury bug in their divisions, so despite being truly superior to the rest of their respective divisions, there is not room on his ballot for these teams.

Apr 05, 2010 07:44 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Wasn't it just two months ago that BP and/or PECOTA was giving the Mariners the edge over the Rangers and by a significant margin?

I also find it a bit ironic that Jay's Hit List ranks the A's the highest in the AL West but his personal ballot has them finishing last.

Apr 04, 2010 20:01 PM
rating: -1
 
Andy

Hit list has the Rangers winning now. PECOTA is clearly not a fan of Chavez being DH instead of Cust.

Also in Jay's comments he said he doesn't trust the A's that much, especially counting on Chavez. He just puts the Hit List out there with pure PECOTA projections.

Apr 04, 2010 20:16 PM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

Was there a new Hit List besides the AL Preseason Predictions on April 2nd that has the A's 4th and a Hit List factor at .517 and the Rangers 5th with a Hit List factor at .512?

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10447

Apr 04, 2010 20:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Andy

The combined Hit List in the blogs has the change.

Apr 04, 2010 20:58 PM
rating: 0
 
RobCegla
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Yet again, BP authors show their perpetual, ridiculous, unfounded faith in Billy Beane's Moneyball approach. When will you jokers return to reality and stop giving undue preference to the A's in your rankings?

Apr 04, 2010 20:48 PM
rating: -11
 
Sam Mauser

I'm Rob and I'm a facetious ass!

Apr 04, 2010 20:50 PM
rating: 5
 
shmigheghi
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

DINGERS

Apr 04, 2010 21:18 PM
rating: -5
 
sgturner65

You have the Cardinals ranked as the worst minor league organization in baseball yet two of your top eight candidates for NL ROY are Cardinals, David Freese at no. 4 and Jaime Garcia, eighth.

What's wrong with this picture?

Apr 04, 2010 21:37 PM
rating: 0
 
Lou Doench

Probably because that's all she wrote when it comes to Cards prospects.

Apr 05, 2010 08:27 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member PQuadrino
BP staff

Nobody thinks the Padres can finish ahead of the Giants, ay?

Apr 04, 2010 21:55 PM
 
sbnirish77
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Just in case you're going to believe anything you read here just remember ...

BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of ELEVEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far.

During the same period, one could have taken the anti-BP dumb team picks of NY CHI and LA and been right at least a total of NINE times.

Glad to see BP finaly has given up on the Indian's and A's, but those old biases die hard when they come to the Red Sox - a team that has only won the division once over the last decade.

Apr 05, 2010 06:44 AM
rating: -5
 
Lou Doench

Golly Gee Whiz!!! I'm darn sure glad yer here to point that out! Here I thought that this predictin baseball might be really hard to do and even the best at it are gonna be wrong a whole heck of a lot. But yer TINY sample size from the last decade has convinced me to never ever believe anything them pointy headed nerds at Baseball Prospectus ever write again!
Thank You sbnirish77! You've done America a service it will never forget!!!!!

Apr 05, 2010 08:34 AM
rating: 2
 
Lou Doench

Sorry... needs more exclamation points!!!!!!!!!!!

Apr 05, 2010 08:35 AM
rating: -1
 
Hal Bent

As a Red Sox fan, nothing scares me more than Mark Swartz picking Javier Vazquez as AL Cy Young. Ummm, that's 'cause CC, AJ, & Pettite are all gonna tank, right?

Apr 06, 2010 04:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Swartz
BP staff

I really don't think my cousin Mark knows who Javier Vazquez is.

I'm bearish on Pettitte and somewhat bearish on Burnett. I think CC is probably a good bet too, but I think that Javier Vazquez has been the victim of bad luck and bad defense at the wrong times, and I think that the NL/AL league difference-- while huge-- is exaggerated to the point that people act like NL numbers are AAA numbers. Vazquez had a 2.68 SIERA last year to CC Sabathia's 3.70. I'm having a hard time thinking that the league difference is that big.

Apr 06, 2010 06:27 AM
 
mkegross

Are the award predictions for who will win the award or who will deserve it? I've always assumed it's the former, but knowing the way the BBWAA voters tend to think, it doesn't make much sense to me to (for example) pick the Braves to win the NL East and Utley to win the MVP.

Apr 06, 2010 06:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ken Funck
BP staff

For my part, I picked who I thought would win it, not who necessarily deserved it. F'rinstance, I picked Teixeira for MVP since I expect him to have the most RBIs on the winningest team in the AL -- a recipe that had writers trying to make a case for him last year, and if Mauer hadn't been so ridiculously good and the Twins hadn't made a late run he probably would have won. My "deserves it" pick this year would be Evan Longoria.

Apr 06, 2010 08:42 AM
 
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