CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Western Front: Three D... (11/13)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Monday,... (11/12)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesd... (11/14)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Wha... (11/13)

November 13, 2012

Rumor Roundup

Tuesday, November 13

by Daniel Rathman

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Giants general manager Brian Sabean kicked off his mission to retain the free-agent contributors to his team’s World Series championship run by inking Jeremy Affeldt to a three-year deal worth about $18 million. Apart from that and a slew of minor-league signings, two of which sent former Pirates righty Daniel McCutchen to the Orioles and ex-Indians outfielder Aaron Cunningham to the Rangers, there wasn’t much to write home about on Monday. Fortunately, today’s first rumor suggests that the action could resume in short order:

Tigers leading the race for Torii Hunter
When teams publicly drop out of the running for a free agent, their white flags often signal that the player is about to settle on a new home. The Dodgers, who are seemingly in on everybody, moved on from Hunter on Monday night, according to ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon, and that report jibes with CBS Sports’ Danny Knobler’s sense that the former Angel is nearing a deal

Knobler mentioned the Rangers and Tigers as possible fits for the veteran right fielder in his morning blog post, and multiple reports later in the day—including the afore-linked tweet from ESPN’s Jim Bowden—zeroed-in on Detroit. As Knobler wrote, the fit makes plenty of sense for both sides, giving Hunter a chance to play for another contender—in this case, the defending American League champions—and offering the Tigers a significant upgrade over Quintin Berry, whose feckless bat was a liability in the two-hole of manager Jim Leyland’s lineup throughout the World Series. 

The 37-year-old Hunter is coming off of a five-year, $90 million contract consummated with the Halos around Thanksgiving of 2007, and unlike many high-priced free agents, he actually lived up to the $18 million average annual value by delivering 16.1 WARP over the life of the deal. One of the most durable veterans on the free-agent market, Hunter made only one trip to the disabled list in his five years in Anaheim—missing 32 games with a strained groin in 2009—and his clean medical history should allay some of the concerns about his age.

On the other hand, despite logging a .313/.365/.451 triple-slash line over 584 plate appearances last season, Hunter did show some signs of imminent decline. The right-handed hitter’s career-best batting average was largely a product of his .389 BABIP, the highest mark in the junior circuit in 2012 and 53 points better than Hunter’s previous career high of .336, which he set way back in 2000. That bloated BABIP masked a worrisome erosion of Hunter’s plate-discipline skills, which contributed to his posting a 6.5 percent walk rate (his lowest since 2007) and 22.6 percent strikeout clip (his highest in any full major-league season).

One source of that decline becomes evident from a year-by-year glance at Hunter’s hitter profile:

The graphic above is Hunter’s TAv by pitch location from the 2009 season, and it shows relatively strong, across-the-board plate coverage, with only one notable hole, in the lower-outside extreme of the zone. (Hunter’s 2010 profile tells a similar story.) Now, compare that his 2012 output by location:

Hunter continued to punish pitches in the lower two-thirds of the zone, but he struggled with letter-high offerings, inside and outside—albeit with an 11-plate-appearance outlier off the outer boundary. (This trend might actually have begun in 2011.)

The sample sizes reflected by the TAv totals in those graphics may be too small to draw a definitive conclusion, but if Hunter can no longer handle upstairs pitches, that’s a hole major-league hurlers will be able to exploit. And although a two-year commitment won’t carry much risk for the Tigers, or whichever team ultimately invests in Hunter this offseason, expectations ought to be tempered.

A .262/.336/.429-hitting Hunter still produced 2.2 WARP for the Angels in 2011, and it’s possible that the sudden drop in his walk rate—and, perhaps, the surge in his BABIP—was a result of hitting directly in front of Albert Pujols. If that’s the case, though, Hunter should expect to see a similarly strike-heavy approach in Detroit, where he would slide in ahead of Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder, and again be forced to earn his way aboard.

After one year in Oakland, Jonny Gomes could land in Baltimore
Signed to a one-year, $1 million deal on Jan. 26, just a couple of weeks before the A’s were due to report to Arizona for spring training, Gomes was arguably last winter’s biggest bargain, contributing 2.2 WARP in 99 games for the American League West champions. The 31-year-old won’t come as cheaply this time around, but he is nonetheless a prime target for another 2012 Cinderella squad—namely, the Orioles.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on Monday that the A’s backed away from talks of a two-year hitch with Gomes after acquiring Chris Young, a considerably more versatile outfielder, from the Diamondbacks earlier this offseason. That opened the door for O’s general manager Dan Duquette to step in, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed Baltimore’s interest last night.

A right-handed hitter with a severe platoon split (.336 TAv against southpaws, .259 versus righties in 2012), Gomes is best utilized in a part-time role, and he spent most of last season in a timeshare with the lefty-swinging Seth Smith. Baltimore skipper Buck Showalter could replicate that situation by platooning Gomes with Chris Davis, who played right field down the stretch and in the 2012 playoffs, but is likely to resume designated hitter duties once both Nolan Reimold (neck) and Nick Markakis (thumb) are healthy.

Michael Pineda on the mend, could return to majors in 2013
If the Yankees are able to re-sign both Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte, their rotation for next season will essentially be set. But, as the adage goes, you can never have too much pitching—and manager Joe Girardi certainly wouldn’t mind having a 6-foot-7 flamethrower at his disposal come summertime.

Pineda—who came over from the Mariners in a January blockbuster that has so far produced little more than a headache for both parties involved—was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder after suffering a significant velocity drop in spring training and has yet to appear in an official game for the Yankees. General manager Brian Cashman said last month that the 23-year-old Pineda is “off [the] radar for now,” but Olney tweeted on Monday that the righty is “making progress” while working through a throwing program.

Assuming a setback-free recovery, Pineda could be ready to return to the majors by June, but only time will tell just how much of his power arsenal will remain intact after surgery. If all goes well, Pineda could serve as insurance for either the rotation or bullpen, potentially enabling Cashman to avoid dealing away prospects for reinforcements at the trade deadline.

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here

9 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Jon KK

"Feckless Bats" would be a great fantasy team name.

Nov 13, 2012 05:49 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Thanks for commenting, Jon KK — I didn't think of that! All yours if you'd like to use it.

Nov 13, 2012 09:32 AM
 
Llarry

I miss the "Hacking Mass" contest...

Nov 13, 2012 10:30 AM
rating: 2
 
T. Kiefer

The understanding on the MLB Network yesterday was that Hunter would replace Brennan Boesch in right, not Berry in left, and consequentially, would put Hunter in the bottom half of the lineup, leaving Berry in the two slot. I think that would be much better than having Hunter hit second.

Nov 13, 2012 09:02 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

T. Kiefer,

I did not necessarily mean that Hunter would be supplanting Quintin Berry in left field; I'd expect him to stay in right, and I'm guessing that the Tigers will use some sort of platoon between Berry/Boesch and Avisail Garcia in left. I do think, though, that Hunter could be an upgrade over Berry in the two-hole, even if his walk rate remains at its 2012 level. Berry has some value as a patient hitter, good base stealer, and strong outfielder, but I'm not sure he's a starter, and after hitting well out of the gate when he was promoted in late May, he scuffled throughout the second half. I don't see either Berry or Hunter as an ideal solution in the two-hole, but unless the .293/.389/.402 Berry from last June returns, I'd prefer Hunter there.

Nov 13, 2012 09:28 AM
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Thanks for commenting. I didn't catch the segment on MLB Network, so if you'd like to explain it in more detail or make a case for Berry, I'd be happy to debate it.

Nov 13, 2012 09:30 AM
 
flyingdutchman

Did everyone forget about Andy Dirks, who is better than all of the above mentioned players?

Nov 13, 2012 10:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Amazingly ... yes — thanks for bringing Dirks up! Hunter in right, and Dirks/Garcia in left would be the most likely arrangement, if Torii goes to Detroit. Against right-handed pitchers, Dirks might be the best option in the two-hole, so alternating in that spot, as Leyland did with Berry/Infante this year, could make sense again in 2013.

Nov 13, 2012 11:27 AM
 
flyingdutchman

Yeah, but you really never know with Leyland, as he seems to fall in love with this or that player from time to time, despite the fact that it leads to a sub-optimal arrangement.

I think giving a 3 or 4 year deal to Hunter is a mistake, because the upside isn't really that large, even in the near term. Some combination of players can probably give you most or all of what Torii Hunter is likely to give you, and given Torii's inflated BABIP in 2012, a switch to the Tigers lineup could lead to Jim Rice levels of GIDP, a stat that already plagues that offense. Most of the improvement the Tigers needed in the corner outfield already came in the form of cutting Young loose and forgetting about Boesch, who is a nightmare.

Dirks is, as usual, underrated by Leyland. He does a bit of everything, and he is just fine against lefties. A platoon of Berry/Garcia in RF is probably fine, and the money could be spent elsewhere. If I were dead set on getting a new outfielder, I'd look for a value in the form of, I don't know, maybe Scott Hairston. Or go over the top and get Melky Cabrera. Maybe it's just me, but 37-year old corner outfielders don't see like the best options, usually.

Nov 13, 2012 12:36 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Western Front: Three D... (11/13)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Monday,... (11/12)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesd... (11/14)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Wha... (11/13)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May...
Premium Article Painting the Black: Stealing Signs
Fantasy Rounders: Statistical Crossroads
Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Started From the Bottom, ...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Eduardo Rodriguez
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Ask the Industry: Catc...

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 13, 2012
Overthinking It: The 50-Run Receiver
Premium Article Prospect Debate: Who Are the Rockies' Top an...
Premium Article Punk Hits: Scouting the Arizona Fall League:...
Premium Article Out of Left Field: What $205 Million Buys on...
Premium Article Western Front: Three Days in the Desert, Par...
Bizball: Ranking 10 MLB Relocation and Expan...
Baseball ProGUESTus: How Alfonso Soriano Got...

MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN
2012-11-16 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Friday, November 16
2012-11-15 - Rumor Roundup: Thursday, November 15
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, November 14
2012-11-13 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Tuesday, November 13
2012-11-12 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Monday, November 12
2012-11-09 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Friday, November 9
2012-11-08 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Thursday, November 8
More...

MORE RUMOR ROUNDUP
2012-11-16 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Friday, November 16
2012-11-15 - Rumor Roundup: Thursday, November 15
2012-11-14 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, November 14
2012-11-13 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Tuesday, November 13
2012-11-12 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Monday, November 12
2012-11-09 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Friday, November 9
2012-11-08 - Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Thursday, November 8
More...