What You Need to Know: The Race is Long, And in the End It’s Only With Yourself

The Weekend Takeaway

Welcome to baseball in April, when it feels like anything can happen because statistics won’t stabilize for months.

The Mets and Royals World Series rematch was the much-anticipated highlight of Sunday’s three-game spread, and not only because the Mets came close to pulling off an upset during the Royals’ flag-raising, championship-celebrating season opener.

Matt Harvey took the mound for the Mets just five days after news of a suspicious bladder infection left the Internet tittering. While his health appeared to return in full force, the command that he showed in Game Five of the 2015 World Series did not. Harvey lasted just 4 2/3 innings against the Royals’ New & Mostly The Same lineup, proffering eight hits, two walks, and four runs and striking out only two of 25 batters.

Despite the presence of Yoenis Cespedes in the center of the lineup, and an ninth-inning rally that pushed the tying run to third base, the Mets still couldn’t close the door on a win. Cespedes, he of the .604 slugging percentage and 2.6 WARP in 57 games during the 2015 season, went 1-for-4 with a single that left him stranded in the third inning.

It was the opposite of what New York fans were hoping for, especially now that the high stakes of a World Series title were off the table. The Royals appeared to capitalize on each of the Mets’ mistakes, from the first-inning blunders of Yoenis Cespedes to the one-two punch of Alex Gordon and Omar Infante in the fifth. By the ninth inning, with Alejandro De Aza threatening on third base, a cool, collected Wade Davis settled down to deliver back-to-back strikeouts to David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes.

Instead of watching the World Series champs get turned on their heads, Sunday’s game provided several good reminders of just why and how they won that title in the first place, with none more resilient than right-hander Edinson Volquez. While PECOTA thinks little of Volquez, projecting an 0.6 WARP and 4.30 ERA in 2016, the 32-year-old flummoxed the Mets over six scoreless frames with five strikeouts, three walks, and just two hits.

Sure, the pressure of the postseason has faded, and the Mets were uncharacteristically clumsy both at the plate and on the field, but unlike the nail-biting shenanigans in Game Five, Volquez turned out a fairly dominant outing with the added bonus of run support. The Royals got their work done early, exploiting Cespedes’ slip-ups with an RBI hit in the first inning and following up with a pair of RBI singles and a sac fly to amass a four-run lead through six.

Perhaps the biggest key to Volquez’s success wasn’t his presence of mind, his sinker or his strikeouts, but the defense behind him. First, there was Mike Moustakas, snagging a drive up the third base line to throw out Travis d’Arnaud in the second inning:

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Then, it was Eric Hosmer with a spectacular dive to quash a base hit in the third:

And finally, Lucas Duda flipped a double play to catch Alex Gordon, keeping Volquez’s line pristine through four innings:

At the end of the day, you know your night is going well when the biggest complaint people have about you is this:

Edinson Volquez had to change hats inbetween innings. Wore wrong hat to start the game. pic.twitter.com/FzqhHYdb9u

— Dr Cork Gaines (@CorkGaines) April 4, 2016

Quick Hits from the Weekend
Adam Wainwright won’t get to hang his cap on three wins in three consecutive season openers, which isn’t really a thing, but would’ve been nice to write home about anyway. While the division favorites shook off the last vestiges of spring training against the Angels, the less-favored Cardinals and Pirates duked it out on Sunday for the first leg up in the National League Central.

The moxie that we saw from Wainwright when he returned from a torn Achilles tendon to catapult the Cardinals into the 2015 postseason eluded him against the Pirates. He dealt six hits and three walks in six innings, serving up the first run of the game to opposing hurler Francisco Liriano and striking out just three of 26 batters faced.

The second run was delivered on a John Jaso double, but it wasn’t until the sixth inning that things began to get hairy. Francisco Cervelli lined a triple off the edge of the bullpen in center field, and John Harrison hit into a sacrifice double play that was challenged by the Pirates on a questionable tag at second base to nab Gregory Polanco.

After his exit in the seventh, Wainwright left the game in the hands of newly minted major-league reliever Seung-Hwan Oh, who signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Cardinals in January. Oh spent two walks on pinch-hitter Matt Joyce and Andrew McCutchen, but calmed his nerves with a pair of strikeouts before exiting the inning and leaving right-hander Seth Maness to deliver the Pirates’ fourth and final run of the game: a Jordy Mercer RBI double.

Meanwhile, Pirates’ southpaw Francisco Liriano found his groove on home turf, fanning 10 Cardinals in six innings and keeping the club hitless until the fourth inning, when first baseman Matt Holliday slipped a single by McCutchen. Although Liriano’s dominance quieted the Cards’ bats, he showed flickers of control issues with five walks spread over the first 5 1/3 innings, though the Cardinals couldn’t quite bring themselves to manufacture any runs with those opportunities.

Liriano had not tallied more than four walks in a winning effort since April 26, 2015, when he issued six walks to the Diamondbacks and pulled out an 8-0 victory. Despite his uncharacteristic shakiness on Sunday, Liriano’s walk rate hovered around 3.4 walks per nine innings in 2015, and his cFIP of 86 danced around the edges of greatness, so it’s unlikely that this performance—or any performance by any player in the first few weeks of the season—is indicative of a major change.

By the time the Cardinals figured it out, the game was all but won: Matt Carpenter singled Yadier Molina home in the ninth, while the Pirates celebrated their first win after a grab by McCutchen to end the game.

Speaking of McCutchen, manager Clint Hurdle opened the season with his premier starter in the no. 2 spot, a decision we talked about here during spring training. After getting plunked by Wainwright in the first, McCutchen failed to reach base of his own accord, but it likely won’t be the last time we see him batting second. John Jaso also adjusted to a new position in the lineup, wasting little time in the leadoff spot with an RBI single in the second inning.

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If there’s one name you’re going to remember after Opening Day 2016, it’s Marcus Stroman. The Rays fished out a run in the third inning on Evan Longoria’s two-out single, but were held scoreless for the next five innings as Stroman marched toward an ultimately unconsummated complete game bid.

This is one way to justify all the hype that comes with the start of the season: Stick to what you know and do it well. Stroman is a solid groundball pitcher who, when healthy, managed a 55 percent GB rate in 130 innings during the 2014 season, and returned in 2015 to a 64 percent GB rate in 27 innings after knee surgery. On Sunday, he used home plate umpire Mike Everitt’s low strike zone to his advantage, working 14 groundball outs against 32 batters and supplementing his efforts with five strikeouts in eight innings. None of Stroman’s pitches touched the upper ranges of the strike zone, and the only pitch tossed higher than the knees landed in the bleachers.

While Stroman was locked and loaded, the Rays unleashed a formidable opponent in Chris Archer, who struck out 12 to tie the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez for most strikeouts during an Opening Day game since 2007. Between whiffs, the Blue Jays got on the board early with a first-inning, two-RBI line drive from Edwin Encarnacion and added a third run off the bat of Kevin Pillar in the fourth.

Archer exited after five innings with five hits and three walks, but, as Stroman pounded the strike zone late into the game, the Rays’ bullpen stumbled in the eighth when Troy Tulowitzki took a Ryan Webb sinker deep for the first home run of the year.

In the ninth, the Rays retaliated with a home run of their own when Corey Dickerson vaulted a cutter from Stroman into the right field bleachers. In the next at-bat, Desmond Jennings found a single, spelling the end of Stroman’s outing and leaving rookie right-hander Roberto Osuna to put a lid on the game and preserve the Jays’ three-run cushion. Osuna marked his season debut as the Jays’ closer with two strikeouts to Brad Miller and Steven Souza, but kept the defense on its toes with one hit, one run, and one wild pitch before settling down to get the game-ending groundout.

Defensive Play of the Weekend

Troy Tulowitzki is good for more than monster home runs. His perfect pirouette saved a hit in the fifth inning and helped solidify the Jays’ lead on their way to a 5-3 win.

What to Watch on Monday

For everyone whose fandom has not been eclipsed by the frontrunners of the AL East and NL Central, this is your Opening Day. Embrace it.

The Cubs are at the forefront of everyone’s minds this spring, and they’ll send out Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta when they visit Angel Stadium for Monday's late-night game. Arrieta lobbed a 7.3 WARP during his sophomore season with the Cubs, sustaining a 2.33 DRA for the second consecutive season and striking out a whopping 236 batters. While proving his dominance has rarely been an issue for the 30-year-old, the Angels’ power-heavy lineup might pose a slight challenge—especially as Cubs manager Joe Maddon is playing fast and loose with a bullpen that’s not quite set in stone.

Opposing Arrieta and a young, talented Cubs lineup will be right-hander Garrett Richards and the Most Interesting Hitter in Baseball™, Mike Trout. The Angels are rolling with a lot of familiar faces to start the year off, including Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun in the nos. 4 and 5 spots, respectively. At the back end of the lineup, shortstop Andrelton Simmons is expected to make his first appearance for the club, though his bat is the least touted of his abilities. General manager Billy Eppler, who joined the Angels in the 2015 offseason, traded for Simmons in a multi-player swap that will keep him in Anaheim through 2020. The question has never been whether he can snag a line drive, but whether he can circumvent the .252 TAv PECOTA has him pegged for in 2016.

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Of all the West Coast rivalries, with the interleague Giants-Dodgers being tops and the local Giants-A’s or Dodgers-Angels a close second, no one gives much thought to the tension brewing between the Dodgers and Padres. Anytime Clayton Kershaw takes the mound, however, it’s a game worth talking about. On Monday afternoon, the Dodgers will face San Diego right-hander Tyson Ross and a refurbished Padres lineup for the first NL West face-off of the season (the Giants, meanwhile, will inch toward their fourth World Series bid against the Brewers).

This will be the Dodgers’ first season without Don Mattingly at the helm, and fresh-faced skipper Dave Roberts is ready for the challenge. Petco Park is familiar turf for Roberts, who was the Padres’ bench coach in 2014 and 2015, and despite his enthusiasm for experimental lineups, he’ll be sticking with the tried-and-true of Dodgers blue, from Kershaw to Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez anchoring the heart of the order.

One addition generating a lot of buzz for the club is rookie shortstop Corey Seager, a heavy favorite (at least among BP writers) for NL Rookie of the Year honors. Seager ascended from Triple-A Oklahoma City in September 2015 and slashed .337/.425/.561 for the Dodgers, to the tune of 1.9 WARP by season’s end. If he can replicate his success on a full-time basis, he could help position the Dodgers for a fourth consecutive postseason run, and make the Hall of Fame, and so on.

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Over in the American League West, another pair of dominant hurlers will face off for a division lead in the west coast afternoon slot: the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez and the Rangers’ Cole Hamels.

Like the Dodgers, the Mariners are also under new management this season. With Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon out the door, GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais will get a chance to exercise their own team-building philosophies with a club that, while historically on the losing side of baseball games, has shown promise and even a glimmer of playoff potential in recent years.

Felix hasn’t netted a Cy Young Award since 2010, when he stunned the opposition despite his 13-12 record, but his 3.3 WARP and a 3.64 DRA in 2015 speaks for themselves. Behind him, infield stalwarts Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, hot-hitting Nelson Cruz, and newcomers Norichika Aoki and Leonys Martin should give the Mariners a fighting chance against Hamels and the Rangers’ sizzling lineup.

The Rangers are searching for a repeat of their 2015 AL West championship, and with Hamels in their pocket, that goal looks closer than ever. Hamels split his time with the Phillies and Rangers in 2015, switching leagues at the deadline and posting a 3.15 DRA and 4.8 WARP with Texas through the second half of the season. At the plate, the Rangers are equally fearsome, sending out sluggers like Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and Mitch Moreland through the middle of the order. They’ll be looking to replicate their league-leading .326 team OBP and 187 home runs from 2015, and if they can figure a way around Hernandez’s changeup, they might be able to get a head start.