Fantasy Beat: Expert Mock Draft Results

March 15, 2011

I recently had the pleasure of doing a slow—and I mean slow—mock draft over the past four weeks with a few of my friends and colleagues in the fantasy baseball industry. That group included most of the mlb.com folks, Fernando DiFino, and the legendary Joe Sheehan. The draft started on February 17 and survived a few lost weekends, DiFino’s nuptials (congrats!) and several copy and paste issues from some of us that are still using not-so-smartphones.

It was a standard 12-team 5×5 league. We were told in advance it would not be played out but, at least for me, that did not change the way I drafted the team (I had the 12th spot in the draft). The table below shows each player’s draft spot, their current Average Draft Position, and the difference between those two numbers (my personal picks are bolded)

Player	Pick	ADP	Difference
Albert Pujols	1	1	0
Troy Tulowitzki	2	5	-3
Hanley Ramirez	3	2	1
Miguel Cabrera	4	3	1
Ryan Braun	5	9	-4
Evan Longoria	6	5	1
Carlos Gonzalez	7	7	0
Joey Votto	8	7	1
Robinson Cano	9	11	-2
Carl Crawford	10	16	-6
Adrian Gonzalez	11	9	2
David Wright	12	10	2
Chase Utley	13	19	-6
Ryan Zimmerman	14	22	-8
Alex Rodriguez	15	16	-1
Mark Teixeira	16	13	3
Josh Hamilton	17	14	3
Jose Reyes	18	28	-10
Matt Holliday	19	23	-4
Prince Fielder	20	21	-1
Kevin Youkilis	21	30	-9
Ryan Howard	22	16	6
Joe Mauer	23	20	3
Justin Upton	24	41	-17
Andrew McCutchen	25	45	-20
Matt Kemp	26	23	3
Dustin Pedroia	27	32	-5
Nelson Cruz	28	34	-6
Shin-Soo Choo	29	27	2
Roy Halladay	30	14	16
Dan Uggla	31	52	-21
Felix Hernandez	32	30	2
Brian McCann	33	29	4
Ian Kinsler	34	52	-18
Brandon Phillips	35	34	1
Cliff Lee	36	38	-2
Jose Bautista	37	49	-12
Tim Lincecum	38	21	17
Victor Martinez	39	30	9
Jacoby Ellsbury	40	68	-28
Zack Greinke	41	49	-8
Adam Dunn	42	46	-4
Jayson Werth	43	50	-7
Adrian Beltre	44	52	-8
Jason Heyward	45	52	-7
Ichiro Suzuki	46	31	15
Clayton Kershaw	47	48	-1
Buster Posey	48	47	1
Rickie Weeks	49	40	9
B.J. Upton	50	66	-16
Jon Lester	51	40	11
Elvis Andrus	52	71	-19
Mike Stanton	53	154	-101
Jimmy Rollins	54	41	13
Hunter Pence	55	83	-28
Alex Rios	56	59	-3
Jay Bruce	57	79	-22
Derek Jeter	58	47	11
Chris Young	59	98	-39
Andre Ethier	60	39	21
CC Sabathia	61	48	13
Colby Rasmus	62	94	-32
Carlos Marmol	63	94	-31
Mariano Rivera	64	59	5
Curtis Granderson	65	71	-6
Carlos Santana	66	135	-69
Kendry Morales	67	62	5
Drew Stubbs	68	156	-88
Adam Wainwright	69	INJ	INJ
Justin Morneau	70	50	20
Josh Johnson	71	73	-2
Neftali Feliz	72	114	-42
Joakim Soria	73	70	3
Justin Verlander	74	66	8
Shane Victorino	75	148	-73
Heath Bell	76	80	-4
Alexei Ramirez	77	99	-22
Brian Wilson	78	75	3
Cole Hamels	79	62	17
Francisco Liriano	80	79	1
Grady Sizemore	81	97	-16
Torii Hunter	82	92	-10
Andrew Bailey	83	148	-65
Billy Butler	84	82	2
Martin Prado	85	74	11
Stephen Drew	86	120	-34
Yovani Gallardo	87	64	23
Jonathan Papelbon	88	127	-39
Jason Bay	89	138	-49
Tommy Hanson	90	79	11
Michael Bourn	91	116	-25
Ubaldo Jimenez	92	43	49
Adam Lind	93	172	-79
Pedro Alvarez	94	84	10
Nick Markakis	95	107	-12
Jered Weaver	96	50	46
Mark Reynolds	97	133	-36
Kelly Johnson	98	111	-13
Delmon Young	99	116	-17
Pablo Sandoval	100	139	-39
Mat Latos	101	71	30
Dan Haren	102	49	53
Aramis Ramirez	103	102	1
Chone Figgins	104	90	14
David Price	105	61	44
Roy Oswalt	106	108	-2
Shaun Marcum	107	105	2
Corey Hart	108	105	3
Paul Konerko	109	71	38
Jose Valverde	110	143	-33
Ben Zobrist	111	126	-15
Max Scherzer	112	108	4
Michael Young	113	79	34
Matt Cain	114	88	26
Aaron Hill	115	166	-51
Jonathan Broxton	116	175	-59
John Axford	117	169	-52
Chris Carpenter	118	98	20
Travis Snider	119	294	-175
Brett Gardner	120	184	-64
Jose Tabata	121	246	-125
David Ortiz	122	183	-61
Jonathan Sanchez	123	173	-50
Brandon Morrow	124	127	-3
Chad Billingsley	125	85	40
Geovany Soto	126	99	27
Huston Street	127	153	-26
Adam Jones	128	189	-61
Ian Stewart	129	114	15
Mike Napoli	130	119	11
Matt Wieters	131	134	-3
Rafael Furcal	132	142	-10
Francisco Rodriguez	133	143	-10
Daniel Hudson	134	134	0
Chris Perez	135	163	-28
Ian Desmond	136	168	-32
Josh Beckett	137	184	-47
J.J. Putz	138	148	-10
Brad Lidge	139	214	-75
Brian Roberts	140	132	8
Juan Pierre	141	135	6
Francisco Cordero	142	219	-77
Gordon Beckham	143	216	-73
Carlos Pena	144	192	-48
Tim Hudson	145	154	-9
Drew Storen	146	199	-53
Matt Thornton	147	240	-93
Gio Gonzalez	148	179	-31
Joel Hanrahan	149	275	-126
Wandy Rodriguez	150	124	26
Angel Pagan	151	281	-130
Carlos Beltran	152	258	-106
Matt Garza	153	107	46
Ricky Nolasco	154	172	-18
Nick Swisher	155	122	33
Colby Lewis	156	114	42
Miguel Montero	157	122	35
Casey McGehee	158	107	51
Carlos Quentin	159	214	-55
Jorge De La Rosa	160	201	-41
Derrek Lee	161	265	-104
Ted Lilly	162	211	-49
Carlos Lee	163	132	31
Brett Anderson	164	148	16
Jhoulys Chacin	165	271	-106
Ryan Dempster	166	90	76
Jorge Posada	167	153	14
Kurt Suzuki	168	179	-11
Craig Kimbrel	169	266	-97
Aroldis Chapman	170	369	-199
Clay Buchholz	171	97	74
Trevor Cahill	172	92	80
Leo Nunez	173	376	-203
Joe Nathan	174	241	-67
Jeremy Hellickson	175	158	17
Ian Kennedy	176	245	-69
Vernon Wells	177	99	78
Howie Kendrick	178	211	-33
Madison Bumgarner	179	153	26
Frank Francisco	180	297	-117
Bobby Abreu	181	119	62
Austin Jackson	182	337	-155
Gaby Sanchez	183	200	-17
Rajai Davis	184	289	-105
Jake McGee	185	393	-208
Denard Span	186	150	36
Adam LaRoche	187	183	4
Ike Davis	188	224	-36
Ryan Raburn	189	315	-126
Domonic Brown	190	336	-146
James Loney	191	255	-64
John Danks	192	101	91
David Aardsma	193	245	-52
Hong-Chih Kuo	194	360	-166
Manny Ramirez	195	165	30
Chris Sale	196	375	-179
Neil Walker	197	343	-146
Starlin Castro	198	157	41
Jonny Venters	199	368	-169
Alfonso Soriano	200	96	104
Fernando Rodney	201	260	-59
Hiroki Kuroda	202	184	18
C.J. Wilson	203	196	7
Carlos Ruiz	204	222	-18
Jake Peavy	205	359	-154
Omar Infante	206	272	-66
Edwin Encarnacion	207	371	-164
Asdrubal Cabrera	208	163	45
Ricky Romero	209	139	70
Sean Rodriguez	210	349	-139
Phil Hughes	211	158	53
Dexter Fowler	212	259	-47
Lance Berkman	213	320	-107
Russell Martin	214	306	-92
Chase Headley	215	325	-110
Alcides Escobar	216	349	-133
Chris Coghlan	217	385	-168
Ervin Santana	218	239	-21
Daniel Bard	219	361	-142
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	220	355	-135
Edinson Volquez	221	318	-97
Brandon Lyon	222	304	-82
Michael Cuddyer	223	262	-39
J.J. Hardy	224	371	-147
Matt LaPorta	225	383	-158
Aubrey Huff	226	107	119
Luke Scott	227	345	-118
Seth Smith	228	357	-129
James Shields	229	175	54
Anibal Sanchez	230	293	-63
Ryan Franklin	231	235	-4
Rafael Soriano	232	355	-123
Magglio Ordonez	233	212	21
Raul Ibanez	234	216	18
Jason Kubel	235	136	99
Mike Minor	236	306	-70
Jordan Zimmermann	237	192	45
Javier Vazquez	238	194	44
J.D. Drew	239	329	-90
Jaime Garcia	240	233	7
Jair Jurrjens	241	185	56
Rick Porcello	242	400	-158
John Lackey	243	172	71
J.P. Arencibia	244	360	-116
Chris Iannetta	245	326	-81
Johnny Cueto	246	325	-79
Brian Matusz	247	247	0
Koji Uehara	248	385	-137
A.J. Burnett	249	352	-103
Gavin Floyd	250	149	101
Mitch Moreland	251	386	-135
Matt Joyce	252	397	-145
Brandon League	253	386	-133
Tim Stauffer	254	346	-92
Kevin Gregg	255	273	-18
Nate McLouth	256	386	-130
Miguel Tejada	257	224	33
Vladimir Guerrero	258	79	179
Cameron Maybin	259	400	-141
Andres Torres	260	266	-6
Kila Ka'aihue	261	394	-133
Jesus Montero	262	292	-30
Joel Peralta	263	400	-137
Mike Aviles	264	158	106
Justin Smoak	265	396	-131
Brett Wallace	266	394	-128
Freddie Freeman	267	341	-74
Yadier Molina	268	207	61
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	269	391	-122
John Buck	270	235	35
Josh Thole	271	397	-126
Nick Hundley	272	395	-123
A.J. Pierzynski	273	286	-13
Coco Crisp	274	326	-52
John Jaso	275	368	-93
Jason Hammel	276	400	-124

Before getting into my own team, I think it is important to look at who the “experts” are reaching for and who they are letting slide. These were the ten biggest reaches in the draft according to the latest ADP reports from MockDraftCentral.com:

Jake McGee – 208 picks early
Leo Nunez – 203 picks early
Aroldis Chapman – 199 picks early
Chris Sale – 179 picks early
Travis Snider – 175 picks early
Jonny Venters – 169 picks early
Chris Coghlan – 168 picks early
Hong-Chih Kuo – 166 picks early
Edwin Encarnacion – 164 picks early
Matt LaPorta – 158 picks early

The Encarnacion reach hit close to home, as I let him go by me in order to take Jake Peavy. If there is someone who loves Encarnacion more than me in 2011, it is Cory Schwartz, who picked two spots after me.

You will recall from my piece on closers last month that I like Leo Nunez as a late grab in drafts for this season and that apparently has not caught on with the mock drafters yet: Nunez’s current ADP is 376 which would not even have placed in this draft. Six of the ten players on this list are either closers or potential closers as drafters jumped up to take the players they thought would get saves this season. The biggest reach, McGee, may be the worst one at this stage: manager Joe Maddon has not yet showed his cards on how the bullpen will set up to start the season. In fact, McGee has gotten very little work to date and it has been mostly against minor league competition, so no one knows how high leverage his work will be.

As always, there are certain players that go right at their projected value and most of the time that happens early in the draft. The following players went within one pick or were taken right at their current ADP:

Alex Rodriguez
Prince Fielder
Clayton Kershaw
Albert Pujols
Carlos Gonzalez
Daniel Hudson
Brian Matusz
Hanley Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Evan Longoria
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Buster Posey
Francisco Liriano
Aramis Ramirez

Of those 15, 10 were taken in the first 20 spots of the draft which helps with predictability in the early rounds. Hudson and Matusz, two players I like very much for this season, were not reached for despite their potential for more upside this season.

Meanwhile, these are the ten players that were taken well past their current ADP in this draft.

Vladimir Guerrero – 179 picks later
Aubrey Huff – 119 picks later
Mike Aviles – 106 picks later
Alfonso Soriano – 104 picks later
Gavin Floyd – 101 picks later
Jason Kubel – 99 picks later
John Danks – 91 picks later
Trevor Cahill – 80 picks later
Vernon Wells – 78 picks later
Ryan Dempster – 76 picks later

Players 11 and 12 on that list were John Lackey and Clay Buchholz, as both of them went 70-plus picks after their current ADP. Guerrero’s slide was one of the biggest surprises—he nearly fell all the way out of this draft as the group was clearly turned off by his second half of the season with the Rangers. Huff was also a surprise as a slide given his dual position eligibility and his strong skills last season. After all, he went nearly 40 picks after Ike Davis despite better numbers from the Player Forecast Manager. Soriano’s slide is not a surprise as I saw the exact same thing happen in two other drafts I did in recent days—he is a strong bargain late in drafts. The PFM has him at 23 home runs, 13 steals, 77 RBI, and a .265 average, solid production at pick 200 in a draft.

My own roster came together as such:

C: M. Montero

C: Ruiz

1B: Butler

3B: Wright

CI: Konerko

2B: Utley

SS: Furcal

MI: Prado

OF: Ethier

OF: Bautista

OF: Hart

OF: Abreu

OF: Smith

U: Joyce

P: Lee

P: Sabathia

P: Lewis

P: Shields

P: Hammel

P: Peavy

P: F. Rodriguez

P: Francisco

P: League

What I like about my roster is that I have players such as Prado and Bautista that have multi-position eligibility. I make sure I get at least two players like that in any draft I do, particularly in AL- or NL-only leagues. Excepting speed, this roster should be very competitive on the offensive side despite the fact I used two early picks on staff aces in Lee and Sabathia. Wright, Furcal, and Abreu will have to provide the bulk of the steals for this squad as the rest of the team is rather slow of foot (maybe Butler will chip in).

On the pitching side, I like the group of starters I was able to assemble as I resisted the urge to jump into the first closer run and still ended up with two guys in Rodriguez and Francisco that I have been targeting due to their skills for this season. The PFM projects that duo for 53 saves, and is also very bullish on League—he’s projected for 31 saves right now. That was the last of the three relievers I took, following my typical plan of taking a high-skills set up man late in mixed leagues rather than chasing a third closer early.

If you are an auction type player, we now have the results of the LABR drafts to utilize and if you need more, all three ToutWars drafts are this weekend in New York City. The draft is not open to the public as it is in the MLB front offices, but it will be covered live on Sirius/XM radio on the fantasy sports channel and various writers will be live blogging the event directly from ToutWars.com. I will be live-blogging most of the NL draft on Sunday morning so I encourage you to drop in to either avenue and check out the auctions. If you live in the New York area, the ToutWars pre-party is Friday night at the infamous Foley’s NY bar near the Empire State Building. Feel free to come by and say hi to all the touts and buy us a beer!

Thank you for reading

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Jason Collette

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pobothecat

3/15

Believe I might've taken Michael Pineda over Jason Hammel with pick 276.

Reply to pobothecat

moonlightj

3/15

I can respect that. I've been on record with my feelings about Hammel making that leap up for 2011 and I trust the way his statistics are trending over a rookie pitcher who had a 100 IP workload spike last year and probably has a 170 IP ceiling this season. Plus, the offense around him is questionable and I wonder if he can reach double-digit wins.