Since we're the fantasy crew here at Baseball Prospectus, we wanted to give you some more fantasy-focused predictions for the upcoming year. This is the perfect opportunity for us to claim that the things we predicted that came true make us brilliant, and also gives us adequate time to come up with excuses for the things that did not turn out the way we planned. It's a flawless plot, and we hope that you take part with your own predictions in the comments. Here we are, in alphabetical order, which means poor old Bill Baer will be the first to be christened a visionary or insane:
Fantasy MVP (Hitter):Troy Tulowitzki
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher):Roy Halladay
Sleeper (Hitter): Jimmy Rollins
Sleeper (Pitcher): Mike Minor
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division:Freddie Freeman
Sophomore Slump: Jaime Garcia
Sophomore Breakout:Pedro Alvarez
Most likely to disappoint:Robinson Cano
Most Overrated: Ubaldo Jimenez
Best $1 Pitcher:Jordan Zimmermann
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be:Brandon Morrow
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Joe Blanton
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Michael Young
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Hanley Ramirez
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Felix Hernandez
Sleeper (Hitter): Ryan Raburn
Sleeper (Pitcher): Gio Gonzalez
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division: Brandon Belt
Sophomore Slump: Austin Jackson
Sophomore Breakout: Jose Tabata
Most likely to disappoint: Matt Kemp
Most Overrated: Nelson Cruz
Best $1 Pitcher: James McDonald
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Kila Ka'ahuie
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Prince Fielder
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Grady Sizemore
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Carl Crawford
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Cole Hamels
Sleeper (Hitter): Edwin Encarnacion
Sleeper (Pitcher): Jason Hammel
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division: Michael Pineda
Sophomore Slump: Gaby Sanchez
Sophomore Breakout: Brian Matusz
Most likely to disappoint: Elvis Andrus
Most Overrated: Mike Stanton
Best $1 Pitcher: Homer Bailey
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Martin Prado
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Heath Bell
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Joakim Soria
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Albert Pujols
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Roy Halladay
Sleeper (Hitter): Adam Jones
Sleeper (Pitcher): Edwin Jackson
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division: Mike Minor
Sophomore Slump: Logan Morrison
Sophomore Breakout: Mike Stanton
Most likely to disappoint: Ian Kinsler
Most Overrated: Andre Ethier
Best $1 Pitcher: Mike Minor
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Drew Stubbs
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Prince Fielder
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Michael Young
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Adrian Gonzalez
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Tim Lincecum
Sleeper (Hitter): Dexter Fowler
Sleeper (Pitcher): Scott Baker
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson: Freddie Freeman
Sophomore Slump: Travis Wood
Sophomore Breakout: Mitch Moreland
Most likely to disappoint: Chase Utley
Most Overrated: Ryan Howard
Best $1 Pitcher: Cory Luebke
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Starlin Castro
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Albert Pujols
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Michael Young
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Albert Pujols
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Felix Hernandez
Sleeper (Hitter): Ryan Raburn
Sleeper (Pitcher): Tim Stauffer
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson: Brandon Belt
Sophomore Slump: Chris Johnson
Sophomore Breakout: Jonathon Niese
Most likely to disappoint: Javier Vazquez
Most Overrated: Andre Ethier
Best $1 Pitcher: Homer Bailey
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Kila Ka'ahuie
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Carlos Beltran
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Michael Young
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Troy Tulowitzki
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Roy Halladay
Sleeper (Hitter): Mike Morse
Sleeper (Pitcher): Homer Bailey
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division: Brandon Belt
Sophomore Slump: Chris Johnson
Sophomore Breakout: Madison Bumgarner
Most likely to disappoint: Chase Utley
Most Overrated: Carlos Gonzalez
Best $1 Pitcher: James McDonald
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Jonathan Broxton
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Heath Bell
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Jonathan Papelbon
Fantasy MVP (Hitter): Albert Pujols
Fantasy MVP (Pitcher): Roy Halladay
Sleeper (Hitter): Alcides Escobar
Sleeper (Pitcher): Ian Kennedy
Impact Prospect, Non-Montero/Hellickson Division: Freddie Freeman
Sophomore Slump: Ike Davis
Sophomore Breakout: Brett Wallace
Most likely to disappoint: Austin Jackson
Most Overrated: Chris Johnson
Best $1 Pitcher: Randy Wolf
Player you won't give up on at any point during the season, no matter how irrational it may be: Pablo Sandoval
Most likely to be traded to AL, breaking hearts of NL-only owners: Prince Fielder
Most likely to be traded to NL, breaking hearts of AL-only owners: Michael Young
It's safe to say we think the Rangers are going to move Michael Young during the season, Chris Johnson is going to be bad, and that there are plenty of inexpensive pitchers who will be productive at drafts this year. Tell us where you disagree and give us your own thoughts in the comments.
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If nothing else, Wallace is a lock for the Dead Cat Bounce: shouldn't be too hard to rebound from a .222/.296/.319 performance.
Seriously, however, I think he will be a good buy, whether or not he bought an Ab Cruncher in the offseason. There's a lot to be said for chucking a buck or two at players other owners won't touch. Which gives me a great idea for next week's VP column . . .
It should read since the drop-off...is significant, draft HanRam with #1 pick.
Pablo Sandoval: 2009 stats + 40 pounds!
Chris Capuano: always been a crush, great park for FBs
James McDonald: smitten
Aaron Harang: return to mediocrity + PETCO = pretty stats
Jordan Zimmerman: man-crush should be full recovered by now
Chris Iannetta: ways to screw him out of a job seem to have run out
Carlos Pena: rebound + NL Central pitching + Wrigley = fun
Joel Peralta: if he retains half his 2010 ability to get out lefties, he's the closer
Brandon McCarthy: Oakland miracle
Matt Capps: something about a Joe Nathan surgery last year...
Lance Berkman: Dude can still crush righties, although I am worried he can't play OF
Kila Ka'aihue: BPro mandates that authors draft him in every league
Capuano: as a Met fan - from your keyboard to God's ears
McDonald: sounds reasonable
Harang: My fellow BPers - if there is one thing to take away from this post, do not acquire this man. Before you pick him based on Petco, check out his home/road splits the last four years. Hear me now and thank me later -- this way madness lies. (This does not apply if you are in either of my leagues).
Iannetta: He hit under .200, isn't hitting a lick in ST, and is a notoriously slow starter. If there is a way to screw him, it will be found. That said, I may keep him in one of my leagues.
Pena: What is the next number in this sequence: .247, .227,.196? If you think it's a number that won't kill your BA, I wish you luck.
Peralta: interesting
McCarthy: for $1 - why not
Capps: classic closer-in-waiting, maybe even a back-door one with him being traded at some point.
Berkman: Berkman + OF = injury waiting to happen
Kila: good upside
You had Harang last year and there is still air available for your balloon? For the record, I wish I had spent just $9 on Harang last year. And he didn't blow his arm out in the 14th, he blew it out two days later when Dusty decided that the 5 inning relief appearance didn't constitute a reason to push back his start.
I'm still depressed that he was poached one pick ahead of mine in my Scoresheet league.
Seth Smith -- may see a career high in PAs; if he can hit LHP at ALL he could have a very good year (mashes RHP)
Aramis Ramirez -- not a Cub fan or ARam fan at all, but if he is healthy, could have a decent bounceback year (?)
Aramis can be a horse, the health my biggest fear with himn.
I have a hard time seeing how a guy whose basically just average has a sophmore slump. his first year wasn't slumpable. if he really slides off that, the mets have other replacement options, like carlos beltran.
That his comps include Votto (age 24 season: .297/.368/.506) and Travis Ishikawa (age 24 season: .274/.337/.432) speaks volumes about Davis' volatility, mostly due to his high K rate.
I could have picked a higher-performing player to slump, but Ike's on my VP CIF/DH beat, and his name sort of jumped out at me.
Also disagree with the choice of Kemp as a disappointment. He's too talented and with Lopes around he's going to run a lot. I'm actually betting on him to be a top 10 player this year.
also is there anywhere on this site that i can look up the 2011 vorp projections between all hitters and pitchers (or even one or the other) is descending order?
May I direct you to our wonderful Player Forecast Manager:
http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/
Along with this handy quick guide on PFM's features, penned by Marc Normandin:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13122
Enjoy, it should be of great use to you in whatever draft in which you are involved.