It started with Matt Kemp and ended with Chase Headley, but the regular phase of the Industry Mock Draft sponsored by our friends over at MLB.com’s Fantasy411 crew is finally over. It took 13 teams, 299 players, and what felt like 29 weeks, but the draft is completed. While anyone can go to MockDraftCentral.com and pull up the most recent ADP reports that show aggregated results for nearly 800 mixed drafts, the expert drafts have appeal because, as one of my friends put it, “Experts don’t follow trends, they set them.”
If an “expert” takes someone 75 spots above or below their ADP value, it should kick-start your curiosity as to why that player is rising or falling so far in the minds of the people that help push the industry forward with their work. After all, Mike Moustakas went 93 spots ahead of his published ADP in this draft while Tim Hudson went 110 spots below his.
Here are the draft results by the numbers. First up: the aforementioned range of ADP risers and fallers.
Just four players—Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Corey Hart, and Matt Capps—went exactly where they were showing up in the ADP reports. 52 percent of the players in this draft went one or more spots above their published ADP values while 29 percent of the players went 20 or more spots above their published ADP values.
If we break down the draft by groups of 50, we can start to see where the largest swings in ADP volatility took place.
|
PICKS |
HIGHEST |
LOWEST |
|
|
1-50 |
2.6 |
+36 (Kevin Youkilis) |
-25 (Tim Lincecum) |
|
51-100 |
5.8 |
+67 (Erick Aybar) |
-34 (Yovani Gallardo) |
|
101-150 |
18.0 |
+93 (Mike Moustakas) |
-55 (Dan Hudson) |
|
151-200 |
-6.6 |
+79 (Kelly Johnson) |
-79 (Mat Latos) |
|
201-250 |
-9.5 |
+74 (Scott Rolen) |
-110 (Tim Hudson) |
|
251-299 |
-41.0 |
+25 (David Carpenter) |
-76 (Doug Fister) |
In each range, the largest ADP dropper was a pitcher, while potential closer David Carpenter was the only pitcher to rise above his ADP status, and that did not come until very late in the draft.
The top 10 risers in this draft (drafted/ADP):
- Mike Moustakas – 123/216
- Ryan Roberts – 113/196
- Lucas Duda – 144/227
- Kelly Johnson – 157/236
- Edwin Encarnacion (no, not me) – 153/230
- Scott Rolen – 226/300
- Martin Prado – 119/189
- Erick Aybar – 81/148
- Ike Davis – 114/175
- Brandon Belt – 147/206
Of note, all 10 of those players have infield eligibility, while five of them are third base eligible. Is third base that shallow? Fellow mock drafter Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys/SiriusXM fame certainly does not think so, and I tend to agree with him.
The top 10 fallers in this draft (drafted/ADP):
- Tim Hudson – 248/138
- Mat Latos – 151/72
- Mark Trumbo – 220/142
- Doug Fister – 261/185
- Jake Peavy – 297/222
- Tommy Hanson – 169/94
- Chase Headley – 299/225
- Johnny Cueto – 188/115
- Hiroki Kuroda – 240/171
- Jose Altuve – 290/222
Altuve falls this far only because Kevin Goldstein does not do fantasy baseball. Seven of the 10 players on this list are pitchers, as many in this draft chose to wait on taking pitching. Trumbo’s draft spot could have been higher if the playing time situation with the Angles was not so muddied. Latos dropping as far as he did seems a bit extreme to me compared to a guy like Hanson, who I have more reservations about as he changes his delivery.
Finally, let’s take a look at the particulars by position:
|
POSITION |
POS DRAFT SPOT |
HIGHEST |
LOWEST |
|
|
Catcher |
136 |
4.7 |
+37 (Yaider Molina) |
-48 (Carlos Ruiz) |
|
First Base |
145 |
5.1 |
+83 (Lucas Duda) |
-78 (Mark Trumbo) |
|
Second Base |
144 |
3.8 |
+79 (Kelly Johnson) |
-68 (Jose Altuve) |
|
Shortstop |
140 |
1.7 |
+67 (Erick Aybar) |
-52 (Stephen Drew) |
|
Third Base |
145 |
3.5 |
+93 (Mike Moustakas) |
-74 (Chase Headley) |
|
Outfield |
141 |
3.1 |
+70 (Martin Prado) |
-60 (Delmon Young) |
|
143 |
8.1 |
+54 (Jason Motte) |
-110 (Tim Hudson) |
Thank you for reading
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1b - Pujols
DH - Morales
OF: - Wells, Hunter, Bourjos
Even after you clear out Abreu, where is Trout? The opinions on Trumbo playing 3rd are iffy so it's tough to envision how they fit all of them in.
The things I really want to know are topics like: are players being over/under drafted in ADP vs their projected performance? Are the experts over/under drafting players in comparison to their projection? Are there any runs on a position in the expert league that explain some of the ADP discrepancies? Are there any patterns of certain player types being overlooked or reached for?
I frequently see experts make comments like 'take the best player available', and then they immediately proceed to ignore their own advice by passing over SP that have more value than the hitter they opt for instead. In my experience, there is always a trade market for a high end SP during the season, so it is not hard to get full value for this asset once the games are being played.
1) budget allocations ( pitching vs hitting) esp considering what seems to be a trend toward over 70% allocations to hitting
2) a look at the analytics behind the PFM and how 5x5 stats are translated into dollar figures, ie is this a standard deviation-based calculation or what?
Frankly, would welcome anyone's feedback on these matters.
Tim Hudson at 248
Mat Latos at 151
Tommy Hanson at 169
and Hiroki Kuroda at 240
Lots of value there
A couple of questions.....questions I always have about "expert" drafts.
1) Are the participants playing for $$$$?
2) Is the league at least being played out?
My trust in the reliability of "experts" selections go up when they have something on the line.
2) no
We all know it is getting published and I know for myself, I draft it as if I were playing out a $5000 cash purse league.