This week’s Keeper Reaper with starting pitchers tackles some of the bigger names who might be putting you to a tough decision depending on your league parameters.
Zack Greinke | Los Angeles Dodgers
Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): Fringe
Deep (90 keepers): Yes
NL-only (60 keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes
Despite being one of the most coveted free agents during the offseason and joining a new team, Greinke’s family doesn’t have to pack up and move. Well, unless they never fully moved to LA after Zack was traded there from Milwaukee. At any rate, he is staying in LA while heading back to the more favorable league. A sabermetric darling, Greinke enjoyed yet another season where his peripherals suggested that he should have been better than he was, as evidenced by every ERA estimator in existence. It is time to start holding Greinke accountable for missing those marks, however, as we can’t just chalk it up to mere bad luck anymore.
Greinke is prone to more implosion starts than you would expect from guys of his caliber, and those outings conspire to keep his ERA higher than it “should be” based on how great he is in the overwhelming majority of his starts. And if you watch these starts, you see that this isn’t just a rash of bad luck, in most cases, but simply poor performance. Since 2010, his 13 starts of allowing six or more earned runs are tied for the fifth-highest total in baseball.
The guys ahead of him include names you won’t be surprised to see: Jeremy Guthrie (19), A.J. Burnett (18), Justin Masterson (17), Randy Wolf (14), and Luke Hochevar (14). He is tied with five others at 13, and again most of the names won’t surprise: Carl Pavano, Paul Maholm, and Gavin Floyd make you say “yeah, makes sense”, while Yovani Gallardo and Josh Beckett are on or near the level of Greinke in terms of surprise.
We saw in 2009 how amazing he can be, but we are now three years removed from that Cy Young season, and it is time to start preparing for a mid-3.00s ERA while understanding the upside is there if he can avoid some of the meltdown starts. So while he grades out brilliantly with the statistics, and some might see him as worthy of keeping in that shallow format, I would pass and invest elsewhere.
Yu Darvish | Texas Rangers
Shallow (30 keepers): Yes
Medium (60 keepers): Yes
Deep (90 keepers): Yes
AL-only (60 keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes
Unless you had expectations for Darvish to match his sub-2.00 ERAs from Japan, it is hard not to see his 2012 MLB debut as a success. He was exactly what I expected with flashes of brilliance but some kinks that led to a solid, though not overwhelmingly amazing, season. His strikeout capability was definitely amazing, and it is his meal ticket to fantasy stardom. An excellent video surfaced this week that cataloged all 221 of his third strikes in crystal clear HD YouTube video. I posted it at my site with a host of second- and third-level statistics about his strikeouts, so feel free to enjoy that after reading through this and every single article on BP. It is hard to pick a favorite of the strikeout stats, but I really liked this one: “Yu’s 59 three-pitch strikeouts were first in the American League and third overall behind Cliff Lee’s 70 and R.A. Dickey’s 62.” It really gets to the heart of his dominance.
His stuff is NSFW, and it sets him up for a huge 2013. Given his early average draft position of 37th overall—the seventh starter off the board—you should consider keeping him in all the formats covered in Keeper Reaper if you want to have a chance at his 275 strikeouts. His sparkling September (2.21 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 39 K, and 7 BB in 37 innings) shows his potential for greatness, and if he can start carving into his 4.2 BB/9 for sustained periods of time, the American League is in deep trouble.
Aroldis Chapman | Cincinnati Reds
Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): No
Deep (90 keepers): Fringe
NL-only (60 keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes
This one is really tough for all of the obvious reasons. It seems like we have at least a couple huge reliever-to-starter transitions every year now, including several that worked very well last year, but each case is so unique that even using the recent history really isn’t much help. Chapman was so great as the Reds’ closer last year in 72 innings, but the plan from the jump was to eventually make him a starter; he can offer tons more value in a starter’s allotment of innings than he can in his 70-75 as a reliever, even at his super-elite level. The best way to deploy, at least in my estimation, would be as a 100-120 inning super-reliever, but that role has gone the way of the dodo bird (poor dodo bird).
It’s easy to look at Chapman’s work out of the pen last year and dream of how great he can be as a starter, except it’s not even close to a 1:1 translation. First off, how much of his 98-mph velocity will come to the rotation with him? It’s easy to give it all you’ve got for an inning or two, but you have to pace yourself to go five-plus. Then there is the pesky issue of him not having a viable third pitch. And while he wasn’t exactly Daniel Bard the last time he started (check out his minor league numbers as a starter), he certainly wasn’t conjuring up thoughts of a fantasy ace either. He posted a 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and 5.4 BB/9 in 67 innings across 13 starts. In short: be careful about placing too much emphasis on what you saw in 2012 because it’s not always a strong indicator of rotation performance. And don’t overpay.
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Expanding that out, in a 20-team dynasty league, if you aren't planning on being competitive in the next two years, is it worth holding onto Greinke till 2015-16?
I admittedly have limited dynasty experience (hoping to remedy that in '13), but can a team really be SO decimated that you're hopeless for 2-3 years? That'd be rough. I can understand a tear down, but wouldn't you build around some cheap potential and then stockpile studs in the draft in an effort to compete or flip them in June/July to get more of that cheap potential?
My strategy is to sell high now, and gather up as much younger or undervalued talent now, so in 2-3 seasons, I have a team of 5-6 studs, a lot of decent players and very little filler. Sure, I could probably field a decent team now, but I want a dynasty that, once it hits it's stride, dominates for multiple years.
You should totally try it. Its fun seeing a master plan come together.
Lee and Yu and Yu and Lee
No matter how they tossed the dice, it had to be
The only one for me is Yu. Well, Yu and Lee
So happy together
Awful, but _necessary._
Paul, how about taking a closer look at AJ Burnett? 3 games of 6 or more ERs last season and 180 Ks, 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Is the improvement mostly from the move from NYY to PIT and can it be sustained?
He's only thrown four pitches that weren't fastball or slider as a major leaguer (http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=547973) so I think the 3rd pitch issue is still a concern. Even if he has one that he's working on in side sessions or he has something that's looked good in bullpens, it still hasn't been game-tested and thus we don't really know what to make of it.
Compare that with someone like Chris Sale (http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=519242) who upped his changeup usage yearly leading into last year's amazing breakout. Everyone wants Chapman to be Sale because he's a lefty success case of RP to SP, but we need to brace ourselves for the fact that it may not work out quite as well as Sale did fantasy-wise. The Ks aren't going anywhere so Aroldis will have fantasy value, but I'd take the over on him matching Sale's 3.05 ERA.
Burnett -
I do think a lot of the improvement is the move to the NL and much better home environs. I loved him last year and his numbers would've been even better if he wouldn't have been saddled with "taking one for the team" in that 12 ER smashing vs. StL.
He had a 3.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 2.9 K/BB in 186.7 IP. And a 15-8 record to boot.
That presents both a fantasy valuation problem and a roster management problem. But I don't fear roster management problems. What does the reliever guy think? (Or should I ask for a separate review from the reliever guy?)
And I'm not going to suggest that Broxton is better than Chapman, but they're paying Brox to close, so if Chapman does flop as a starter, I'm not *certain* that he instantly assumes the closer role. You're right that Chapman is a fantasy valuation and roster mgmt conundrum this year. There is just a ton of uncertainty tied to him. I sure hope he just goes into the rotation and dominates, but I wouldn't *bet* on that outcome, too much of a longshot.
It wouldn't hurt to touch base with our Reliever Reaper as I'm not certain he's following this comment thread.
I just finished my first year in this particular league and am also wondering about how many pitchers to keep. On the NL side, most if not all of the guys seem to be keeping 3 pitchers. But on the AL side, all but 1 or 2 are keeping just 2 pitchers. I don't know how or if to take that into consideration while determining my own keepers.
Greinke was 27th in ERA last year, 58th the year before, and 63rd in 2010. At least he's improving. He's undoubtedly a **very** good pitcher, but if anything he's the overrated one here. Or at least has been the last couple of years. He's treated like a first-class ace and the results simply aren't there for such treatment and haven't been since 2009.
I'm not sure how many of Yu's games you saw, but that was hardly fleeting success to any objective eye. This guy has dominance in his game without question. Meanwhile, he was more or less the same home or road, with slight favor to home, believe it or not.
Me preferring Yu to Greinke wouldn't allow you to win any singular league over me and going to that "can I join your league (because I'm implying you suck and you'd be easy to roll because of ONE OPINION)" thing is trite. Reasonable minds can disagree on players and resorting to attacks, even if indirect (and believe me, I know exactly what you were implying in your first line) is wholly unnecessary.
Darvish wasn't even on his full game this year as he was adjusting to America and a much more difficult league yet he still fanned 221 and finished just 9 spots away from Greinke in the ESPN Player Rater. Do you really think it's outrageous to suggest that he can then pass Greinke in 2013?