Fantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300

March 20, 2015

As promised, here are Baseball Prospectus’ rankings for players who play in draft leagues.

This is a list of the top 300 players as ranked by Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella. This list assumes standard 23-man rosters with two catchers, which is why the list is so catcher-heavy at the bottom. If you play in a league with one catcher, adjust accordingly.

ADP is from NFBC ADP, and is updated as of yesterday’s posted rankings at NESN’s website.

We might try to add more functionality to this list in the next update, but wanted to get something to our non-auction subscribers today.

BP Rank	Player	Pos	ADP	Diff
1	Mike Trout	OF	1	0
2	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	0
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	5	2
4	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	4	0
5	Miguel Cabrera	1B	6	1
6	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	2
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	3	-4
8	Jose Abreu	1B	7	-1
9	Jose Bautista	OF	9	0
10	Adam Jones	OF	14	4
11	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	16	5
12	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	10	-2
13	Anthony Rendon	2B/3B	11	-2
14	Felix Hernandez	SP	12	-2
15	Ian Desmond	SS	18	3
16	Jose Altuve	2B	13	-3
17	Ryan Braun	OF	28	11
18	Robinson Cano	2B	17	-1
19	Max Scherzer	SP	20	1
20	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	19	-1
21	Yasiel Puig	OF	27	6
22	Anthony Rizzo	1B	15	-7
23	Josh Donaldson	3B	21	-2
24	Bryce Harper	OF	30	6
25	Michael Brantley	OF	22	-3
26	Buster Posey	C	23	-3
27	Chris Sale	SP	25	-2
28	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	45	17
29	Hanley Ramirez	SS	24	-5
30	Madison Bumgarner	SP	29	-1
31	Adrian Beltre	3B	32	1
32	George Springer	OF	36	4
33	Corey Kluber	SP	34	1
34	Justin Upton	OF	33	-1
35	Stephen Strasburg	SP	26	-9
36	David Price	SP	31	-5
37	Todd Frazier	3B/1B	37	0
38	Billy Hamilton	OF	44	6
39	Starling Marte	OF	35	-4
40	Albert Pujols	1B	52	12
41	Johnny Cueto	SP	38	-3
42	Matt Kemp	OF	42	0
43	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	49	6
44	Aroldis Chapman	RP	41	-3
45	Jose Reyes	SS	46	1
46	Zack Greinke	SP	47	1
47	Craig Kimbrel	RP	50	3
48	Evan Longoria	3B	59	11
49	Corey Dickerson	OF	43	-6
51	Adam Wainwright	SP	55	4
52	Ian Kinsler	2B	54	2
53	Kyle Seager	3B	61	8
54	Freddie Freeman	1B	39	-15
55	Jon Lester	SP	53	-2
56	Cole Hamels	SP	60	4
57	Nolan Arenado	3B	51	-6
58	Dee Gordon	2B	40	-18
59	Greg Holland	RP	56	-3
60	Charlie Blackmon	OF	74	14
61	Joey Votto	1B	72	11
62	Brian Dozier	2B	63	1
63	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	58	-5
64	Christian Yelich	OF	77	13
65	Nelson Cruz	OF	65	0
66	Jonathan Lucroy	C	68	2
67	Jason Heyward	OF	76	9
68	Devin Mesoraco	C	80	12
69	Carlos Santana	3B/1B	73	4
70	Victor Martinez	1B	48	-22
71	David Wright	3B	102	31
72	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	62	-10
73	Gerrit Cole	SP	83	10
74	Julio Teheran	SP	78	4
75	Jake Arrieta	SP	103	28
76	Prince Fielder	1B	57	-19
77	Jeff Samardzija	SP	71	-6
78	Kolten Wong	2B	101	23
79	Chris Davis	3B/1B	64	-15
80	David Ortiz	DH	92	12
81	Jay Bruce	OF	87	6
82	Matt Harvey	SP	66	-16
83	Mark Melancon	RP	84	1
84	James Shields	SP	93	9
85	Alex Gordon	OF	126	41
86	Dellin Betances	RP	81	-5
87	Starlin Castro	SS	107	20
88	Jason Kipnis	2B	69	-19
89	Dustin Pedroia	2B	96	7
90	Hisashi Iwakuma	SP	99	9
91	David Robertson	RP	70	-21
92	Tyson Ross	SP	97	5
93	Jacob deGrom	SP	112	19
94	Hunter Pence	OF	79	-15
95	Evan Gattis	C	85	-10
95	Lucas Duda	1B	138	43
96	Sonny Gray	SP	86	-10
97	Gio Gonzalez	SP	122	25
98	Ben Revere	OF	117	19
99	Kole Calhoun	OF	88	-11
100	Yan Gomes	C	91	-9
101	Matt Holliday	OF	89	-12
102	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	111	9
103	Alexei Ramirez	SS	90	-13
104	Manny Machado	3B	135	31
105	Neil Walker	2B	124	19
106	Matt Carpenter	3B	136	30
107	Alex Wood	SP	100	-7
108	Marcell Ozuna	OF	120	12
109	Trevor Rosenthal	RP	106	-3
110	Steve Cishek	RP	108	-2
111	Cody Allen	RP	94	-17
112	J.D. Martinez	OF	119	7
113	Lance Lynn	SP	146	33
114	Salvador Perez	C	109	-5
115	Kenley Jansen	RP	75	-40
116	Mookie Betts	OF	116	0
117	Pablo Sandoval	3B	123	6
118	Zach Britton	RP	125	7
119	Adam LaRoche	1B	143	24
120	Melky Cabrera	OF	161	41
121	Jonathan Papelbon	RP	133	12
122	Daniel Murphy	2B	154	32
123	Brett Gardner	OF	139	16
124	Carlos Carrasco	SP	113	-11
125	Ben Zobrist	SS/2B/OF	155	30
126	Brandon Belt	1B	172	46
127	Doug Fister	SP	147	20
128	Rusney Castillo	OF	120	-8
129	Jean Segura	SS	142	13
130	Chris Carter	DH	110	-20
131	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	168	37
132	Xander Bogaerts	SS	162	30
133	Mark Trumbo	1B/OF	95	-38
134	Huston Street	RP	118	-16
135	Drew Storen	RP	115	-20
136	Alcides Escobar	SS	178	42
137	Howie Kendrick	2B	166	29
138	Elvis Andrus	SS	127	-11
139	Brian McCann	C	104	-35
140	Wil Myers	OF	171	31
141	Josh Harrison	3B/OF	98	-43
142	Alex Cobb	SP	82	-60
143	Yadier Molina	C	131	-12
144	Koji Uehara	RP	128	-16
145	Justin Morneau	1B	176	31
146	Matt Adams	1B	169	23
147	Jayson Werth	OF	165	18
148	Yordano Ventura	SP	145	-3
149	Joaquin Benoit	RP	149	0
150	Kris Bryant	3B	105	-45
151	Wilin Rosario	C	152	1
152	Hyun-jin Ryu	SP	144	-8
153	Jhonny Peralta	SS	195	42
154	Jorge Soler	OF	114	-40
155	Chase Headley	3B	230	75
156	Mat Latos	SP	189	33
157	Jimmy Rollins	SS	163	6
158	Pedro Alvarez	3B	208	50
159	Fernando Rodney	RP	134	-25
160	Erick Aybar	SS	206	46
161	Brett Lawrie	2B/3B	216	55
162	Andrew Cashner	SP	170	8
163	A.J. Pollock	OF	180	17
164	Leonys Martin	OF	140	-24
165	Glen Perkins	RP	141	-24
166	Alex Rios	OF	187	21
167	Jered Weaver	SP	200	33
168	Matt Wieters	C	137	-31
169	Russell Martin	C	173	4
170	Martin Prado	2B/3B	205	35
171	Yasmany Tomas	OF	167	-4
172	Phil Hughes	SP	183	11
173	Francisco Rodriguez	RP	193	20
174	Collin McHugh	SP	198	24
175	Anibal Sanchez	SP	192	17
176	Jose Quintana	SP	204	28
177	Khris Davis	OF	203	26
178	Javier Baez	SS/2B	148	-30
179	Matt Shoemaker	SP	212	33
180	Hector Rondon	RP	153	-27
181	Gregory Polanco	OF	121	-60
182	Addison Reed	RP	181	-1
183	Eric Hosmer	1B	156	-27
184	Chase Utley	2B	220	36
185	Steven Souza	OF	215	30
186	Austin Jackson	OF	238	52
187	Lorenzo Cain	OF	199	12
188	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	130	-58
189	Michael Pineda	SP	160	-29
190	Neftali Feliz	RP	177	-13
191	Santiago Casilla	RP	191	0
192	Marlon Byrd	OF	222	30
193	Danny Santana	SS/OF	132	-61
194	Jacob McGee	RP	201	7
196	Joc Pederson	OF	196	0
197	Michael Wacha	SP	164	-33
198	Ian Kennedy	SP	175	-23
200	Michael Fiers	SP	194	-6
201	Matt Cain	SP	236	35
202	Brandon Moss	1B/OF	159	-43
203	Danny Duffy	SP	264	61
204	Denard Span	OF	174	-30
205	Curtis Granderson	OF	242	37
206	Steven Pearce	1B/OF	226	20
207	Dallas Keuchel	SP	240	33
208	Oswaldo Arcia	OF	221	13
209	Coco Crisp	OF	268	59
210	Sean Doolittle	RP	151	-59
211	Torii Hunter	OF	269	58
212	Garrett Richards	SP	157	-55
213	Yasmani Grandal	C	197	-16
214	Avisail Garcia	OF	185	-29
215	Luke Gregerson	RP	235	20
216	Drew Smyly	SP	182	-34
217	Desmond Jennings	OF	232	15
218	Travis D'Arnaud	C	179	-39
219	Wilson Ramos	C	189	-30
220	Aramis Ramirez	3B	211	-9
221	Chris Owings	SS	257	36
222	Chris Archer	SP	190	-32
223	Jedd Gyorko	2B	223	0
224	Dexter Fowler	OF	265	41
225	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS/2B	218	-7
226	Michael Saunders	OF	294	68
227	Francisco Liriano	SP	219	-8
228	Carl Crawford	OF	207	-21
229	Rougned Odor	2B	247	18
230	Shelby Miller	SP	241	11
231	Aaron Hill	2B	297	66
232	Justin Verlander	SP	186	-46
233	Derek Holland	SP	237	4
234	Rick Porcello	SP	281	47
235	Adam Lind	1B	279	44
236	Jose Fernandez	SP	209	-27
237	R.A. Dickey	SP	278	41
238	Scott Kazmir	SP	245	7
239	Mark Teixeira	1B	287	48
240	Joe Mauer	1B	234	-6
241	Jesse Hahn	SP	295	54
242	Homer Bailey	SP	217	-25
243	Nick Castellanos	3B	259	16
244	Mike Napoli	1B	250	6
245	Kevin Gausman	SP	253	8
246	Taijuan Walker	SP	260	14
247	Andrelton Simmons	SS	293	46
248	Kennys Vargas	DH	274	26
249	Dustin Ackley	OF	323	74
250	Jason Hammel	SP	302	52
251	Brad Miller	SS	374	123
252	Drew Hutchison	SP	248	-4
253	Alejandro De Aza	OF	310	57
254	Miguel Montero	C	210	-44
255	Derek Norris	C	229	-26
256	Adam Eaton	OF	202	-54
257	John Lackey	SP	275	18
258	Latroy Hawkins	RP	273	15
259	Brandon McCarthy	SP	243	-16
260	Danny Salazar	SP	224	-36
261	Brandon Phillips	2B	263	2
262	Logan Morrison	1B	377	115
263	C.J. Wilson	SP	367	104
264	Arismendy Alcantara	2B/OF	252	-12
265	Chris Tillman	SP	267	2
266	Jenrry Mejia	RP	214	-52
267	Scooter Gennett	2B	262	-5
268	Norichika Aoki	OF	312	44
269	Ervin Santana	SP	291	22
270	Jarred Cosart	SP	375	105
271	Michael Cuddyer	OF	246	-25
272	Drew Pomeranz	SP	315	43
273	Carlos Beltran	OF	255	-18
274	James Loney	1B	354	80
275	Joe Nathan	RP	227	-48
276	Michael Morse	1B/OF	256	-20
277	Jed Lowrie	SS	320	43
278	Mike Zunino	C	213	-65
279	Jake Odorizzi	SP	231	-48
280	Brett Cecil	RP	307	27
281	Mike Leake	SP	346	65
282	Ken Giles	RP	225	-57
283	Dioner Navarro	C	285	2
284	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	C	303	19
285	Wade Davis	RP	266	-19
286	CC Sabathia	SP	356	70
287	Jason Castro	C	261	-26
288	Rene Rivera	C	362	74
289	Joakim Soria	RP	286	-3
290	Chris Iannetta	C	350	60
291	Andrew Heaney	SP	344	53
292	Carlos Ruiz	C	347	55
293	John Jaso	C	271	-22
294	Robinson Chirinos	C	311	17
295	Alex Avila	C	364	69
296	Tyler Clippard	RP	270	-26
297	James Paxton	SP	233	-64
298	Matt Garza	SP	322	24
299	A.J. Burnett	SP	321	22
300	Henderson Alvarez	SP	299	-1

Thank you for reading

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NightmareRec0n

3/20

I absolute love Christian Yelich in real life, but I'm not sure I get the gap between Yelich and Choo. Yelich is a young guy that you hope can be Choo with his skill set. They have similar K and BB rates, nearly identical plate discipline, and deliver a potential decent power speed combo. Choo is old and does have injury risk, but not enough to justify 60-70 picks until we know Yelich's power is coming around.

Reply to NightmareRec0n

kvamlnk

3/20

There does not seem to be a lot of consistancy with the tiers (star counts). I assume that's because of various authors having differing views. It does make it harder to integrate the information.

Reply to kvamlnk

SansRig

3/20

The differences in opinion contributes to the richness of the content. Easily integrated and uniform content makes for a passive approach.

(I do realize that this sounds like a fantasy baseball fortune cookie.)

Reply to SansRig

kvamlnk

3/25

This is just a list of players. The earlier tiered rankings and associated material had justifications for the decisions. That was rich content.

Once I integrated the draft list for sorting with the PFM and tiered rankings, I could see the inconsistancies. There were not that many. Most were improvements on the original rankings. I adjusted the "stars" where I thought appropriate.

In summary, thanks for the draft list, it proved quite helpful in finalizing my own draft guide.

Reply to kvamlnk

sitdancer

3/20

Where would you rank Miggy in leagues where he has 3B eligibility? 3rd?

Reply to sitdancer

MikeGianella

3/20

If you believe he's completely healthy, sure. However, I'd probably leave him where he is due to the inherent risk.

Reply to MikeGianella

modonnell

3/20

These rankings disagree with my PFM rankings with standard 5x5 categories. Am I using the wrong settings in the PFM or is this because I am in a snake, straight draft? Some of them are way off, especially the not so common choices, such as Souza ranked 34th overall in the PFM and 185 here.

Reply to modonnell

woof755

3/20

Sort of along these same lines, I have always wondered why the PFM projections (like those seen in the depth charts link) and PECOTA are not the same.

Reply to woof755

jaybook

3/20

Can't speak for BP, but I believe it's because PFM is based off Pecota projections, while these are the authors' own analysis.

Reply to jaybook

woof755

3/21

Right. My question is why are PFM and PECOTA different?

Reply to woof755

swarmee

3/23

Does one use weighted mean and one use the 50th %ile projection?

Reply to swarmee

MikeGianella

3/23

Different how? I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying the statistics are different?

Reply to MikeGianella

MikeGianella

3/23

The PFM goes off of PECOTA, which is a mechanical projection. These are staff rankings, which take other factors into account.

Reply to MikeGianella

MikeGianella

3/23

we're going in part off of our instinct. For Souza to rank that high, he'd have to be a $25 player. He could get there, but paying that seems like folly.

Reply to MikeGianella

TKD3rdDan

3/24

I have the same concern. The draft rankings in this article are way off the draft rankings produced by a standard-league PFM report. How can we have confidence in PFM when these rankings are so wildly different?

Reply to TKD3rdDan

Anchovies

3/24

Nobody cares how much confidence you have in it. Different people have different projections. Deal with it.

Reply to Anchovies

jashnew

3/20

Just my two cents. I'm investing heavily in Jean Segura and Lorenzo Cain. Reason for Segura is that he has been in the league for 3 years and he is only 25. His personal issues sound like they are getting better. The dude is an amazing talent. I set him at .280, 20 HRs, 30 SBs, 60-70 RBI's, 90 runs. Lorenzo Cain is going on 29 but that's OK because he is a late bloomer. I see 15-17 HR's, .275, 40 SBs, 70 RBI(He'll be batting 3rd), 80 runs. Draft these guys late and enjoy the value.

Reply to jashnew

Averym2

3/22

Neither of those guys will hit like that. Cain has barley any power. Maybe 5 homers for cain and 8 or 9 for segura. Don't know where you are getting these numbers from. The stolen bases are okay, but I think segura will stay a 260-270 hitter.

Reply to Averym2

the4seamer

3/20

Im in a two catcher league. What are your thoughts on Nick Hundley as #2 in Colorado? He has to have some hidden value that is being missed. If he can hit HR in San Diego then.......

Reply to the4seamer

MikeGianella

3/23

If he plays he could be solid, but with Rosario and McKenry also in the picture it's muddled. He certainly could rank with some of the other catchers on this list toward the bottom.

Reply to MikeGianella

the4seamer

3/20

Wong ahead of Pedroia, who woulda thought

Reply to the4seamer

anderson721

3/20

Considering that the Rusney Castillo projections and the Yelich projections are practically duplicates, the vast difference in ranking is a puzzle.

Reply to anderson721

jcutiger

3/21

Rusney might be starting in the minors have something to do with it?

Reply to jcutiger

MikeGianella

3/23

yes

Reply to MikeGianella

fnorce

3/21

12 team league , 5 x 5 , w OBP instead of BA -adam jones would drop in that case and others should be higher ie Rizzo - who else would you reshuffle?

Reply to fnorce

LucasDad

3/22

Would like me some OBP info as well. Need more based on OBP leagues, other than just in passing about certain guys being higher or lower in these leagues. Would like an OBP ranking.

Reply to LucasDad

MikeGianella

3/23

It's a good idea, but the rankings at this point are kind of in beta mode. We'll be discussing integrating things like this at the next staff meeting later this month or in early April.

Reply to MikeGianella

Dillon415

3/22

Goes from 49 to 51.

Reply to Dillon415

Dillon415

3/22

And there are two at 95

Reply to Dillon415

MikeGianella

3/23

i was away with this weekend but i should get to editing on this today.

Reply to MikeGianella

kvamlnk

3/24

You have 298 players. The vacancies at 195 and 199 are never filled with duplicated ranks further down. The acutal numbering:
| 191 | Santiago Casilla | RP |
| 192 | Marlon Byrd | OF |
| 193 | Danny Santana | OF |
| 194 | Jake McGee | RP |
| 195 | Joc Pederson | OF |
| 196 | Michael Wacha | SP |
| 197 | Ian Kennedy | SP |
| 198 | Mike Fiers | SP |
| 199 | Matt Cain | SP |
| 200 | Brandon Moss | OF |
shifting players up[ to fill the vacancies.

Reply to kvamlnk

ronzorn

3/22

Would really appreciate NL only breakdown.

Reply to ronzorn

MikeGianella

3/23

The rankings were kind of a trial run thing this year. We are going to do in-season ranking updates, but the plan isn't to do customized rankings for every conceivable format. If your NL only is deep, the bid limits I generate should provide a pretty good approximation.

Reply to MikeGianella

mattyjames1

3/23

Maybe #50 is billy butler?

Reply to mattyjames1

MikeGianella

3/23

No.

Reply to MikeGianella

tcfatone

3/24

Seriously bullish on Cole and Arrieta, eh?

Reply to tcfatone

Fantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300

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