Fantasy Rounders: An Opening Day Salvo

I have been a Baseballholic since I was a kid, and that obsession has manifested over the years through baseball cards, video games and eventually fantasy sports. This will be my 17th season of playing fantasy baseball, and though I continue to enjoy the traditional rotisserie format (I'm in four full-season leagues this year), I have a relatively new indulgence that whets my baseball appetite: Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS).

DFS is where the fast-paced competition of online poker collides with the analytical fervor of fantasy baseball. I'm not the first to make this observation, and I don't think that it's a coincidence that many of the game formats for DFS (ie head-to-head, 10-team, million-dollar tournaments) mirror those of online poker. What has slipped under the radar is the potential for DFS to meld statistics and scouting. DFS represents a four-way intersection, with poker and baseball charging toward each other along one street while on the other is an analyst's dream scenario, with a turbulent-yet-beautiful interaction of beer and tacos.

The daily fantasy game can be frustrating at times, given the limited sample and the high variance that is inherent in the day-to-day flow of baseball. That said, all of the games are statistically based and one can take advantage of sample size in different ways to minimize variation, such as having multiple lineups (perhaps configured to various game formats) or running a higher volume of games at lower prices as opposed to concentrating the day's investment into only a few contests. There are hidden advantages that lie on the scouting side, adding context to some of the variations in performance, and this ties into the best part of the DFS experience—it makes watching baseball even more entertaining.

The tides of DFS invoke a playoff mentality, where starting pitchers take center stage and games can be won and lost by the least likely player in the lineup. We get ridiculous amounts of over-analysis in the playoffs, much of which is just there to fill time, yet we also learn some things that had been hidden in the forest of data during the regular season (e.g. Lester never throwing over to first base). The format is conducive to recency bias, some of which is baked into the player prices, but the values are generated without the benefit of the scouting angle. A well-tuned microscope for player evaluation can be a huge advantage in DFS, provided that the gamer also takes a step away from the mic to appreciate the big picture.

Fantasy Rounders will take a structured approach to DFS coverage this season, highlighting players that fall within strategic categories of day-to-day variation. Gamers have vastly different strategies, and it is up to the reader how he or she wants to utilize the info, but these are some of the filters that I will use when looking at the daily landscape:

Splits
Hitters and pitchers with heavy platoon splits will dominate this section of each day's report. The left-handed flyball pitcher who is facing a lineup full of right-handed power bats; the lefty slugger who can't hit his own kind and is likely to have a long day at the plate; a player's context can weigh heavily into his relative value from day to day. Other splits will be considered, and it's a great place to go digging for DFS gold mines and avoiding the single-day land mines

Opponents
Is a high-strikeout pitcher on the hill versus a K-prone lineup? Is Kershaw pitching against a star-soaked lineup? Who are the opposing pitchers to target for stacking purposes? What the hell is stacking? These questions will be answered in the Opponent section.

Recent Trends
This section will cover players who have been on an exceptional roll or a brutal slump in the recent past. Each day I will go in-depth on one of these players to look for on-field clues behind the change in performance. This section might be a bit thin in the early-going, but expect it to grow as the season progresses.

Playing Time/Injuries
You don't need me to tell you who's on the disabled list, but players dealing with smaller injuries can send value ripples throughout the DFS player pool. The bumps and bruises that players endure throughout the season can impact performance or take them out of the lineup, impacting the value of teammates and thus opening an opportunity for a less-heralded (and often more affordable) player to get some playing time. I will also highlight some of the bargains in this space that fit well into a stars n' scrubs roster.

I will also include some brief weather details, particularly highlighting the outdoor ballparks that could be impacted by Mother Nature. I'm not the weatherman, but this can play a big role in the first two months of the season, and I figured that it can't hurt to have a few links at one's disposal.

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This is my third year playing DFS, and each season I have launched from a higher diving board. I will be investing $500 with Draft Kings this year (My user name is RaisingAces), and in this space I will be sharing the trials and tribulations of my rollercoaster ride throughout 2015. I have some strategies that I've picked up from the past couple of seasons, but I still have a lot to learn about the best strats for DFS and the game is still in its infant stage. I expect my approach to evolve as the season progresses, recognizing that there are different strategies that can be profitable, while at the core of this endeavor is the never-ending absorption of baseball.

And now that we've laid down the groundwork, the ultimate holiday has arrived. Games that count mean stats that count, and the launch of DFS baseball 2015 will be fast and furious. Let's line up for the starting gun.

Splits
The splits section is dedicated to hitters, and though platoons will likely dominate the discussion, there are others factors to consider as well. Note that all stats used represent career splits, unless otherwise noted (Draft Kings prices in parentheses).

Joey Votto, 1B, ($4600)
LHP: .293/.388/.500 in 1262 PA
RHP: .318/.430/.548 in 2800 PA

I expect Votto to come back to previously established levels of awesomeness this season. He's facing Francisco Liriano on Opening Day, and conventional wisdom might dictate that the lefty-hitting Votto is particularly vulnerable to southpaws, but his superiority is merely dented in these situations. He hits sliders well, too (career ISO of .212), so Liriano's weapon of choice will hardly phase him. The price isn't cheap, but I wouldn't let the matchup stand in the way of rostering Votto.

Matt Kemp, OF, ($4000)
LHP: .331/.394/.556 in 1222 PA
RHP: .278/.333/.473 in 3274 PA

Yes, he's facing Clayton Kershaw (great day to avoid Pads), so big grains of salt here, but this is a spot to roll the dice if you want to zig with a matchup that should be really fun to watch. Kemp has obviously never faced his former teammate in a game that counted, but he does have the benefit of having watched Kershaw in action from a straightaway view in center field for the past seven years. Kershaw's repertoire happens to suit Kemp, as well, given the southpaw's arsenal of heaters and breaking pitches but lack of a change:

Kemp vs. LHP, pitch types (AVG/SLG)
Hard: .374/.667 in 607 AB
Breaking: .293/.445 in 191 AB
Off-speed: .263/.397 in 209 AB

These three Twins Triplets that follow all struggle against southpaws, and the fact that the lefty in question is David Price should make them shrivel up.

Oswaldo Arcia, OF ($3900)
vs LHP: .224/.266/.347 in 259 PA
vs RHP: .249/.319/.490 in 529 PA

Joe Mauer, 1B ($3700)
vs. LHP: .294/.366/.383 in 1887 PA
vs. RHP: .331/.418/.499 in 3691 PA

Kennys Vargas, 1B ($3500)
vs. LHP: .228/.287/.315 in 101 PA MLB
vs. RHP: .309/.338/.561 in 133 PA MLB

Left-handers are able to suck nearly half of the ISO away from both Arcia and Mauer, and though Arcia has a small sample from which to draw, his drop is much steeper and the southpawphobia has stretched back to the minor leagues. Vargas, on the other hand, offers a ray of hope. The switch-hitter was fine against pitchers from both sides in the minors, and the ridiculously low sample size makes it easy to overlook last season's hiccup. That said, starting the season against David Price is not exactly an ideal setting for Vargas to figure out big-league lefties.

Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B ($3700)
vs LHP: .265/.311/.402 in 361 PA
vs RHP: .264/.326/.434 in 1070 PA

The right-handed hitting Lawrie has a reverse split in his MLB career thus far, though not extreme, but it matches up well with Yovani Gallardo, a pitcher with a minimal platoon split of his own (lefties have an OPS advantage of just 27 points), courtesy of an over-the-top arm slot that minimizes the lateral variation of his pitches. Lawrie will likely be hitting in the middle of the Oakland lineup, and Gallardo's fly-ball tendencies put the new A in a good position to knock an extra-base hit (or two). The final piece to the puzzle comes in the form of repertoire, as Lawrie's most glaring weakness is not covered by Gallardo's arsenal—an off-speed pitch.

Lawrie, pitch types (AVG/SLG)
Hard: .297/.471 in 823 AB
Breaking: .237/.408 in 321 AB
Off-speed: .160/.231 in 156 AB

Opponents
Turning our attention to the mound, the deck for Opening Day is stacked with aces like no other point in the season, and this can have implications on both sides of the ball, with options aplenty on the rubber yet a lack of bats that survive the gauntlet. As alluded to earlier, Price ($10400) should have a relatively easy time cutting through the Minnesota lineup, and here's a couple of other notable pitchers who will take the hill on Opening Day:

Corey Kluber @ HOU ($9800)
He struck out 28.3 percent of the batters that he faced last season, racking up 269 K's en route to the CY hardware. Houston led the American League with 1442 strikeouts by their hitters and the offseason alterations to the lineup have done little to change the outlook of a lineup that had the second-highest K rate in baseball. Kluber only had the pleasure of facing the Astros once in 2014 (in September), but the recipe resulted in 14 K's for the right-hander. The over/under for his K count in today's contest is in the double-digits.

Kyle Kendrick @ MIL ($4200)
Please don't read that price listing as a recommendation, but expect a lot of DFS managers to be “stacking” their lineups against Kendrick today. Stacking is a common strategy in DFS, in which a gamer cherry-picks a low-grade SP and then targets hitters from the opposing club to fill out the lineup card. Draft Kings only allows you to stack a maximum of three players from one offense, so folks can't go full-bore, but it's common to see lineups that feature six hitters playing at altitude when the Rockies play home games. On a day that's saturated with studs, Kendrick is sitting there ripe for the plucking (despite his pitching on the road). Expect a lot of teams to roster Carlos Gomez ($5000), Ryan Braun ($4800), and Jonathan Lucroy ($4300).

Henderson Alvarez vs. ATL ($6200)
Another player that will be in a lot of DFS rosters is Alvarez. He's not a big strikeout guy (just 14.4 percent in 2014), but the price is extremely low for a pitcher who had a 2.65 ERA last season and is facing the light-hitting Braves in his first start of the year. My guess is that a lot of managers will try pairing him with Clayton Kershaw ($12400) or another elite arm, while funneling some of the savings to splurge on a big bat.

Yordano Ventura vs. CHW ($7600)
Tread lightly with White Sox runners today, particularly Adam Eaton ($3800) – Ventura was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season when it came to shutting down the running game. Nobody even attempted a steal against him until September 12th, when the Red Sox tried a delayed double-steal in the fifth inning that failed, with Mookie Betts ($4000) caught off third by Sal Perez as Yoenis Cespedes ($4400) slid into second. That was it.

Recent Trends
Masahiro Tanaka vs. TOR ($9700)
As if his partially torn UCL weren't concerning enough, the recent revelation that Tanaka expects to be cooking with a bit less gas this season further dampens his fantasy value. Entering spring, my feeling was that Tanaka would be effective for as long as he was on the mound (hence valuable in DFS) but that his stay could be fleeting. This news combined with the recent comments by Pedro Martinez cast a dark cloud over his prospects in the immediate future. I did a bit of sofa-scouting, and though Spring Training feeds leave a bit to be desired, Tanaka's mechanics looked out of whack. His timing of trunk rotation was particularly inconsistent (which is very odd for him), resulting in some hung curveballs, and his arm often looked slow or late on the trigger. Maybe things will look better once he gets under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium, but the maelstrom of worries in addition to his well-stocked opponent will keep me from investing on Opening Day.

Injuries/Playing Time
I'll assume that all of the players who were designated to the DL are known quantities, but the following list includes players who could sit out the first game of the season. Roster these players with the intention to check back before game time to ensure they're in the lineup.

• Nick Markakis, ATL – Still recovering from neck surgery, but he says there is a “95 percent chance” that he plays today, for what it's worth.
• Devin Mesoraco, CIN – His playing time has been stunted ever since he took a foul-tip off the mask in early spring, resulting in a mild concussion, and a recent quad injury has further limited his swings. Mesoraco's expected to play, but it's worth keeping an eye on his status.
• Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, DET – These two anchors to the Detroit offense are each coming back from off-season surgery and have played sparingly in the spring, but they're both expected to be in the lineup today.
• Elvis Andrus, TEX – A stiff back has cost him some time, but Andrus has given the thumbs up for Opening Day. Given the optimism of spring and his late game at Oakland, he might be a good player to avoid.
• Chris Davis, BAL – He's serving a suspension and will be out today. He'll be in the lineup for game two.

Finally, Tampa Bay released their regular lineup against right-handed pitchers (they face Chris Tillman and Baltimore today), and there were a couple of noteworthy items that could cause some Rays to slide up or down the rankings. John Jaso is penciled in as the leadoff hitter against right-handers, followed by Steven Souza, and then batting third is … Asdrubal Cabrera. Evan Longoria hits cleanup, but his RuBI (Runs+RBI) opportunities will likely be slim in what's shaping up to be a rough offense.

Weather Alerts
Opening Day is shaping up to be gorgeous, with baseball uninterrupted across the country.

There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Cincinnati for Pirates-Reds (starts at 4:10pm EST), and you can click here for updates.

As a quick reference for fellow weather watchers out there, here is a list of home teams that are essentially impervious to the elements thanks to domes or retractable roofs:

• Arizona
• Houston
• Miami
• Milwaukee
• Seattle
• Tampa Bay
• Toronto

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Resources used for this article:

• Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
• Draft Kings player prices
• Brooks Baseball
• Baseball-Reference