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Splits
Eric Hosmer, 1B ($5100)
vs. LHP: .265/.311/.366, with 15-of-19 SB in 818 PA
vs. RHP: .284/.342/.454, with 29-of-38 SB in 1713 PA
Hosmer is hitting as anticipated, it's just a bit later than expected. The Royals first baseman is hitting .317/.387/.540 in 143 plate appearances this season, 78 of which have come against right-handed pitching, with an even more robust stat-line of .357/.423/.657. Stolen bases are not a major part of his game, but he has chipped in a pair of swipes this season (in three attempts), so there's the off chance that he'll take off, with an equal likelihood regardless of pitcher handedness. Nick Martinez has been pitching out of his mind lately but Hosmer could help to bring him back down to earth. Hoz is a very intriguing roster choice for DFS today, that is if you can stomach the price tag.
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Matt Kemp, OF ($4200)
vs. LHP: .332/.394/.555 in 1250 PA
vs. RHP: .277/.331/.469 in 3386 PA
Kemp was covered in the Opening Day Salvo of Fantasy Rounders, noting his career-long trend of crushing left-handers, a factor which will be in play today against James Paxton in an interleague matchup with the Mariners. Kemp has endured a significant rough patch in recent days, slashing .154/.190/.179 since the calendar flipped to May, and Bud Black opted to give Kemp a rest following 32 consecutive games played. With the travel day Monday, Kemp will have two days' worth of rest and relaxation to recharge his batteries. Even with his recent struggles, Kemp has hit .370/.393/.519 in his 28 plate appearances against lefties this season, and his career-long platoon split includes 55 extra points of batting average and 147 points of OPS when facing southpaws.
Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B ($3300)
vs. LHP: .273/.346/.418 in 217 PA
vs. RHP: .232/.284/.339 in 545 PA
Bogaerts hasn't exactly come on like gangbusters, but he has been very productive against left-handed pitchers in his brief career. The rookie will be facing Drew Pomeranz of Oakland, who has thrown a fastball or curveball on 95-percent of his offerings this season.
Bogarts vs pitch types (AVG.SLG)
Hard: .275/.446
Curve: .172/.190
Judging by the small sample of results that we have so far, Pomeranz will be best served sticking to the curve in their matchups today.
Opponents
Chris Sale, CHW at MIL ($9400)
Sale has been off his game lately, and though his nine-run blow-up at the hands of Minnesota 12 days ago was tainted with weakly hit baseballs that found open pasture, his latest turn was a veritable mess: five walks, five earned runs, seven hits and six strikeouts in five innings if work. Sale gets the slightest reprieve due to the fact that he was facing the hard-hitting Tigers and they happen to mash left-handers, but the five walks are a concern for a pitcher who got a late start to the season due to a foot injury, and any exacerbation could compromise his physical foundation and release-point repetition.
Mike Fiers, MIL vs. CHW ($8500)
Fiers has a strikeout rate that has cracked 30 percent this season, following up on last season's exceptional 27.7 percent K frequency, but the extra punchouts have been paired with double the walks when compared to last season's exceptional performance. He has also been privy to the longball, having given up six homers already in less than 30 innings pitched (compared to seven homers in 71 innings in 014), and he has 37 hits allowed so far on the young season. More than 20 percent of his runs allowed this season have been unearned, such that his 5.46 ERA is relatively low when compared to his 6.98 RA in 2015. Fiers has 20 strikeouts over his last two starts, but the results of those outing underscore the risk/reward of rostering Fiers: first he gave up one run over six innings against the Cubs, and then he surrendered five runs to the Dodgers across as many frames. $8500 is a steep price to pay on a day when there are several other options within his price range, all of whom are relatively safe yet none of whom carries the same degree of risk vs. reward.
James Paxton, SEA vs. SD ($7200)
Paxton has struggled in the first six weeks of the 2015 season, and the biggest culprit has been his susceptibility to home runs: the funky lefty has given up as many homers (six) in 33.7 innings of 20-15 as he had allowed in 98 frames prior to the season. The velocity is down more than a full tick from last season, but it's typical for pitchers to start slowly and Paxton has been throwing harder as the season has progressed, so I expect him to be within spitting distance of last year's average by mid-summer. He draws a tough opponent tonight, facing a Padre ballclub that's second in the National League in scoring and that spent the off-season loading up on right-handed power bats that are primed to maul southpaws such as Paxton.
Recent Trends
Noah Syndergaard, NYM at CHC ($7200)
All eyes will be on Thor when he takes the hill tonight for the Mets against Jon Lester and the Cubs. He has been on fire in Triple-A this season, a feat made all the more impressive by the fact that he is playing in one of the toughest leagues in the game for pitchers (the PCL) and that his home is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in said league. His last three turns have been particularly impressive, surrendering just two runs across 22 frames (a 0.81 ERA) with 27 strikeouts against two walks and only nine hits.
He has been absolutely dominant, and this despite pitching two of those games in his home of Las Vegas and tossing the other in the hitter haven of Albuquerque. He has the up0side of double-digit K's against the free-swinging Cubs tonight, but there is also the chance that he implodes on the big stage. The price is inviting, and I expect many DFS managers to bet on Thor's hammer tonight.
Injuries/Playing Time
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Jose Bautista (shoulder, $5400) was held to a pinch-hitting appearance yesterday and might not be in tonight's starting lineup for the Jays.
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George Springer (concussion, $5100) will likely be held out today but could return to the Astros lineup on Wedbesday.
Weather
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The rain appears to be dormant for the time being, aside from Houston which has a roof.
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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