The hitter prices over at Draft Kings have been inflated a bit today, with 16 position players checking in at $5000 or greater. Such an adjustment was necessary, wth a pitching slate that is extremely thin on the top end today, and failure to adjust the hitting pool accordingly would result in a bunch of loaded lineups with overlap All Stars.
Splits
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF ($4600)
vs. LHP: .248/.329/.401 in 441 PA
vs. RHP: .246/.323/.473 in 1828 PA
The Indians specialize in exploiting platoon splits to the fullest extent, so don't be surprised if Moss fails to start this contest with southpaw rookie Carlos Rodon on the hill for the White Sox. That said, Moss has actually hit lefties better than right-handers this season, with a left line that includes a .380 OBP in 50 plate appearances, and Moss has been penciled in to start recently against southpaws for the lefty-thin lineup of the Indians. His batting average and OBP don't really suffer when he is at the platoon disadvantage, but the power is certainly compromised, and Moss' ability to earn his salary today might depend on late-game at bats with a right-hander on the mound for the Sox.
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Kyle Seager, 3B ($3800)
vs. LHP: .239/.289/.381 in 801 PA
vs. RHP: .274/.346/.453 in 1552 PA
Seager has had a rough go of things so far in 2015, and we are getting deep enough into the season where the numbers start to carry a small amount of weight. His .255/.303/.418 line isn't exactly floating the offense, and the combined power outage of he and Robinson Cano (.360/.299/.357) have dented the Mariners' early season performance. Seager has shown recent signs of regaining some of the sock that had gone missing, including six extra-base hits in his last 11 ballgames, but tonight's run-in with left-hander Wei-Yin Chen will likely keep Seager at bay for most of the contest.
Derek Norris, C ($3600)
vs. LHP: .302/.380/.496 in 471 PA
vs. RHP: .216/.300/.336 in 656 PA
This is just a humble reminder that Norris rips lefties (facing Tsuyoshi Wada today, see below), has been batting second in the batting order more often than any other spot, putting him in ideal run-scoring position for fellow lefty mashers Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. Norris has generally been hitting fifth or sixth when not closer to the top, even when a RHP is on the mound, so he will be in a good position for RuBI's regardless of where Bud Black pencils him into the lineup. He's been the starting catcher for 33 of the Padres' 40 games, a usage pattern that suggests that he will be in the lineup tonight against the Cubs, and his incredibly cheap salary price make him an even stronger value in today's beefed up market. The Pads haven't been so careful with Norris' plate appearances as compared to the A's, with 78 percent of his plate appearances coming with the platoon disadvantage against right-handers this year (was just 52 percent as an Athletic). Norris has yet to hit a homer against a lefty this season, but he is already 13-for-30 with a half-dozen doubles.
Opponents
Tyson Ross, SD vs. CHC ($9000)
Ross has continued to use his slider at an alarming frequency this season, chucking breakers at a 43-percent rate that is consistent with last season's spike. Batters have not been getting wise to the strategy, given a 52.6-percent swing rate that is a dead ringer for last season's 53.1-percent mark on the slide, with 45 percent of those swings coming up empty. His command has been off, though, and Ross has been racking up both the K's and the walks so far in 2015. The trend is likely to continue against a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in strikeouts and is third in baseball in walks this season, and a tendency toward inefficient innings with high pitch counts have led to Ross having abbreviated outings, another trend that could continue in tonight's ballgame.
Jered Weaver, LAA at TOR ($7400)
Weaver's velocity has dropped to precipitous depths, with a Moyer-esque fastball that has averaged just 84.3 mph when weighting his sinkers and four-seamers, down three full ticks from last season's average, and at 32 Weaver is not at the age where one would expect such a sudden decline. He's a flyball pitcher whose value takes a big hit away from Angel Stadium, and now he will be taking his slow-pitch approach to the home run hell of Rogers Centre to take on the highest-scoring offense in the game. Expect crooked numbers in tonight's contest.
Tsuyoshi Wada, CHC at SD ($6500)
Today is a great day for stacking the top half of the Padre lineup in DFS, given that each of the outfielders as well as the new catcher are death to southpaws. This is no specific slight to Wada, who had a 3.25 ERA last season on the strength of excellent pitch command, but his splits included a 799 OPS against right-handed batters and a 429 OPS against lefties (in only 45 plate appearances). He was doing the same thing this year in Iowa that he had done in the bigs, with a three-to-one K:BB ratio and an overall line that's light on the true outcomes but heavy on the run prevention. San Diego is specifically designed for just such an attack, and though Wada might carry some novelty value for the bats in the Padres lineup, that didn't stop last year's (weaker) San Diego squad from pummeling Wada for five runs in four innings during the worst start of his brief MLB career.
Recent Trends
Bryce Harper, OF ($5700)
He started the month in a one-for-17 mini-slump over his first five games, but then someone flipped the “future Hall of Famer” switch and Harper hasn't looked back. It started with an explosion – actually three of them – as Harper dropped a trio of bombs on Tom Koehler and the Marlins on May 6. Any stat-line that includes that ballgame will obviously be swayed, but since that game Harper has been unstoppable:.513/.596/1.179 line in 51 plate appearances. In his last four games, he has nine hits including three homers and a triple; he also has 23 RBI and 19 runs scored in his last dozen ballgames. The performance has been so strong for the past two weeks that he justifies the highest salary at Draft Kings today.
Fastballs and sliders have been right in Harper's wheelhouse during his amazing run, with nine of his 10 homers since May 6 coming on those pitch types. This matches up perfectly with the repertoire of tonight's starter for the Yankees, as right-hander Adam Warren has thrown fastball or slider on 77 percent of his pitches this season. Harper has shown that he can take the ball out of any part of the ballpark, having gone yard to the pull side and straightaway center with equal aptitude, and even driving one over the wall in left field. It seems that he turned into Barry Sanders overnight – you can't stop Bryce Harper, you can only hope to contain him.
Injuries/Playing Time
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Plantar fasciitis continues to keep Corey Dickerson (foot, $5200) out of the starting lineup for Colorado
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Carlos Santana (back, $4600) was out of yesterday's game due to back spasms and is considered day-to-day. Santana says that it could be a couple of days before he is back in the lineup.
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Devon Travis (shoulder, $3400) has missed the last three ballgames and is day-to-day
Weather
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Skies are looking pretty clear for tonight's full slate of games, that is except for Denver, where gamers have to once again balance the advantages of thin-air offense with the possibility of a late-game cancellation for PHI-COL – check here for updates
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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