Fantasy Rounders: An Arm and a Leg

Platoons

Temper: RHB's Yoenis Cespedes OF ($4200, -31 OPS and -.001 ISO career vs. LHP) and Travis d'Arnaud C ($4100, -133 OPS and -.053 ISO vs. LHP), against LHP Jorge de la Rosa ($6600, +151 OPS and +.069 ISO career vs. RHB)

Some readers might be surprised to learn that Cespedes has a slight reverse platoon split in his career, so the “target” tag ins his case has everything to do with Jorge DLR's vulnerability against right-handers and the fact that Cespedes is by far the most threatening right-handed hitter in the Mets' lineup. We might be able to put d'Arnaud in that category sometime soon, but a string of injuries have kept him off the field and away from realizing his promise, fueling a low sample size of southpaw ineptitude that throws his platoon splits upside down. De La Rosa is a great target for a right-hand-heavy club, but the Mets are not that team, particularly with David Wright on the shelf and Michael Cuddyer in the midst of a sub-700 OPS season. Even lesser right-handed bats like Juan Uribe and Wilmer Flores have posted reverse splits in their careers.

Steals

Target: Jason Heyward OF ($4000, 18-of-20 SB this season) and Kolten Wong 2B ($3600, 13-of-21 SB) against RHP Gerrit Cole ($10900, opponents 19-of-25 SB this season)

Cole is tied with Cole Hamels for the fourth-most stolen bases allowed this season, and Cole stands alone in fourth with 25 total attempts. St. Louis is not a heavy-stealing team so they can't take full advantage on the rare instances that they get on base against Cole, but they do have a couple of players who will be primed for take off. We all remember Heyward when he was 20 years old and breaking windshields in spring training, but who knew that he would eventually become the type of player whose speed outpaces his power? He has gone 18-for-20 on the bases yet has less than 10 homers so far this season, putting him on pace for his third campaign with 20-plus swipes though he has cracked the 20-homer barrier just once. Wong's stolen-base efficiency has been rough this season, following a 2014 campaign in which he stole 20 bags in 24 attempts. It isn't for lack of trying, as Wong has attempted four steals in his last five games, and he will be looking for another opportunity of he gets on base with an empty bag in front of him.

Avoid: Manny Machado ($4400, 15-of-20 SB this season) against RHP Hisashi Iwakuma ($10400, opponents 1-of-2 SB this season, 16-of-34 SB for his career)

For those playing the afternoon slate as part of an Early or All Day tournament (early games start at 3:40pm EST), you might want to note the steal-squelching ways of Hisashi Iwakuma. The Orioles have no other threats on the bases outside of Machado, who is a surprise candidate himself following multiple knee surgeries and 10 career steals in 17 attempts entering this season. Iwakuma's price went through the roof and the powers-that-be must be expecting a big day, because multiple Orioles have been discounted. The steals are hardly the reason to spring for Machado's services on any given day and thus Iwakuma's basepath-shutdown shouldn't stop a prospective buyer, but it's handy to know that the speed part of his game will be marginalized, so the “Avoid” label is more of a slight ding to his expected value than a yellow flag caution. After Machado, the next-highest stolen base total is three, but keep this in mind in case you thinking that Jimmy Paredes (3-of-6 SB) or Adam Jones (3-of-4) might get frisky.

Recency Bias

Target: LHB Chris Davis 1B/3B ($4300) against RHB Hisashi Iwakuma ($10400)

Last 20 games (20 starts): .329/.424/.877 with 12 homers and 30 RBI n 85 plate appearances

A few weeks ago it looked as if Davis was going to do al of the analysts a favor and have a fairly humble season that fell nicely between his 2013 breakout and his 2014 collapse, but he has channeled the '13 version over the past few weeks. Davis has earned his Crush nickname with a an unreal stretch of dominance, with 12 homers in his last 20 ballgames. He's homered in three consecutive games yet hasn't had a three-game homerless draught since July 18-20, and his relatively low price tag is shocking considering the heat that is emanating from his lumber. Once again it seems that the presence of Iwakuma is having a Felix-like effect on the prices of Baltimore hitters, but it could open a significant opportunity given Iwakuma's inconsistent performance this season.

Matchups

Temper: RHB Jayson Werth OF ($2600) versus LHP Clayton Kershaw ($14200)

Head-to-head: .310/.394/.517 with two homers in 33 PA

This matchup achieves “Temper” status for all sorts of reasons, beginning with “it's Kershaw,” followed by Werth's injury-marred performance this season, and then the obvious sample-size caveats – as well as fact that said sample is spread out over several years, further diluting the predictive value of the numbers (hich is a big reason why matchups can be dubious to begin with). Combined with the fact that Werth's stat-line is good but not great (though it's all relative), and the only thing that has me considering Werth on tonight's slate is his low price tag. For $2600, Werth might allow a manager to reach and fit Kershaw himself under the $50k salary cap.

Price

Target: Yasmani Grandal C ($3100) against RHP Jordan Zimmermann ($8000)

The switch-hitting Grandal rips right-handers and his consistent performance this season puts him on the short list of best backstops in DFS. Zimmermann is a good player but the price tag seems fit for a pitcher of Max Scherzer-level skills. Grandal could take advantage with a huge day, and given that most Dodger bats are underpriced today DFS managers might find tremendous value in a stack against the Nats and Zimmermann.

Avoid: Iwakuma ($10400 vs. BAL), Jake Odorizzi ($9900 at ATL), Eduardo Rodriguez ($9900 at MIA), Aaron Nola ($9600 at ARI), and Raisel Iglesias ($8700 at SD).

Go ahead, pick an arm. The second tier of pitchers on today's slate is just brutal, forcing managers to dip heavily into the pitching coffers while scanning for bargain hitters or rolling the dice on cheap pitchers with sketch backgrounds. There are a lot of overpriced pitchers today, as Iwakuma is just one of 12 arms priced at $10k or above, and the real highway robbery doesn't begin until we get past the five-digit threshold of cost. These players would need to post a total of close to 20 fantasy points in order to justify these costs, and one would hope that the hefty price tags would come with a dose of upside, but pitchers like Odorizzi (four of his last 10 starts above 20 points), Rodriguez (three of 10), and Iglesias (three of 10) are unlikely to justify their salaries.

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Resources used for this article:

Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards

Draft Kings player prices

Brooks Baseball

Baseball-Reference