Fantasy Tiered Rankings: First Base

As our fantasy positional series continues at Baseball Prospectus, we move from a position of turpitude (catcher) to one of genuine quality (first base). The positional series is a collaborative effort—with my rankings taking into account the arguments of other Fantasy Team writers—so if your favorite player doesn’t get enough attention in this article, there’s a great chance that he’s been (or will be) featured in another piece this week. Let’s get to the “star” ratings, which will once again be broken down into five tiers.

Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and they will fetch mixed-league auction bids in excess of $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and they are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of last year’s values but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen in 2016.

We retained last year's roster requirements for the positional tier series. Dollar values come from last year’s PFM using a 12-team, standard 5×5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and, as we did last year, we'll allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. Players needed to play in 20 games at a position to qualify there. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players’ dollar values.

FIVE STAR

Goldschmidt and Rizzo are no-brainers in the highest tier; however, ranking Miguel Cabrera as the second-overall first baseman might cause a fantasy owner or two to double-take. The 32-year-old slugger failed to hit over 20 homers for the first time since his rookie season in 2003. It also represents a noticeable power decline over two full years. His batted-ball velocity, though, remains elite—suggesting that his power remains elite. He owned the fourth-highest average batted-ball velocity in all of baseball. If his HR/FB corrects itself this year—it’s been below his career norm for the past two years—he’ll once again flirt with 30 homers and be elite in RBI, batting average, and perhaps even runs scored.

Five-Star Value Pick: Paul Goldschmidt

Even amongst the studs at the five-star level, Goldy is at another level. He provides true five-category production at a position that traditionally shuns that type of fantasy profile. Even if one makes the argument that Rizzo offers five-category value, it’s not the same level of quality, as Goldschmidt has eclipsed the .300 plateau in each of the past three seasons.

FOUR STAR

The four-star tier is filled with a trio of guys who barely miss an elite profile. Votto suffers from a horrible team in Cincinnati that’s actively shopping its offensive talent. Encarnacion will always struggle to reach five-star status due to his lack of stolen bases and his pedestrian batting average. Finally, Abreu offers absolutely nothing in terms of steals and still won’t have a strong enough team around him to score over 100 runs—not to mention I’m skeptical that he’ll hit over .300 on an annual basis.

All of these players carry significant value. They’re just a tick off the pace set by guys like Goldschmidt and Rizzo—who should be the faces of the position for the upcoming half-decade.

Four-Star Value Pick: Joey Votto

Votto still gets too much shtick for being a passive hitter and for prioritizing “not making outs” over hitting homers and driving in runs. Many people don’t realize that he clubbed 29 homers in 2015, his highest total since 2011, and that he was the second-best fantasy first baseman, above Anthony Rizzo. The narrative that he’s a patient walk machine overshadows his special skills at the plate. The savvy fantasy owner will recognize that in 2016.

THREE STAR

There’s an interesting collection of age and upside in the third tier. Sano has the power potential to rival Chris Davis, but he struck out 35.5 percent of the time in 2015 and will be facing major-league pitchers who finally have the proverbial book written on him. Too many question marks exist to justify his current average draft position (ADP), which is 60th overall, driven by the hype machine and the we-haven’t-seen-him-fail-yet club. This is more where he belongs.

Guys like Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder simultaneously have impressive track records and age-centric worries. Ortiz gets a bump downward due to his lack of runs scored and positional inflexibility. Hosmer looks the part, minus the mediocre power. Freeman will have trouble overcoming the Braves insipid offense (while his wrist injury further clouds his value), and Belt can’t escape from the fact that he’s stuck in AT&T for half his games.

Three-Star Value Pick: Eric Hosmer

Hosmer offers intriguing value in the three-star tier because he’s one of the few at this level who can legitimately hit over .300, steal double-digit bags, and score 100 runs. The problem is that the 26-year-old has never eclipsed the 20-homer mark in his big-league career. That’s a problem at a power-heavy position like first base. His .184 ISO with 10 homers in the second half, though, suggest that he could be on the verge of a power “breakout” of sorts. If his ground-ball rate finally falls below 50 percent—and I recognize that this lacks precedent—he could rocket up fantasy rankings. Everything else looks great.

TWO STAR

Most of these guys offer 20-plus-homer potential with potential anchors in batting average. Some of them, such as Adam Lind and Mitch Moreland, could be utilized as nothing more than platoon bats by their clubs. Similarly, Lucas Duda shocked the world hitting .285/.333/.545 against lefties—making some think he may not be a mere platoon bat — but that ignores his 31.8 percent strikeout rate, 5.3 percent walk rate, and .378 BABIP against southpaws. He still wasn’t very good.

I’m intrigued by Kendrys Morales, who benefited by a potent Royals offense, but could easily hit .250 with under 20 home runs. His 20 speed (I’m informed by scouting folk that I cannot force a -20 grade on his speed) and the fact that he’s 32 years old should keep the upper end of his batting average at his 2015 output, while he hasn’t stolen a base since 2009. It’s middling power production from a first baseman that’s relying on top-end contextual statistics. That ain’t a profile in which I want to invest too heavily.

Two-Star Value Pick: Ryan Zimmerman

I wrote about Zimmerman on Monday, and most of my argument can be copied-and-pasted right in this space.

ONE STAR

If you’re a fantasy owner who’s scraping the depths of the first-base barrel, allow me to express my condolences. This tier expands far beyond the six names mentioned here—we’re talking Yonder Alonso, Billy Butler, Greg Bird, C.J. Cron, etc.—but these represent a sextet of players who could serve as useful roster filler.

For those searching for power, Carter and Singleton are obvious fliers; however, it’s important to recognize that Bour hit 23 home runs in under 500 plate appearances. Of course, he was also a 27-year-old rookie who had only hit 20-plus homers in the minors once, and that was back in 2011. So who knows?

Victor Martinez and Adam LaRoche are probably unrosterable in most leagues, but V-Mart should get 400-plus plate appearances with a quality offense surrounding him. He also has discovered the fountain of youth before. LaRoche, on the other hand, fell off a cliff in 2015, and a dead-cat bounce will make him serviceable at this low-end of the spectrum. Inspiring, I know.

One-Star Value Pick: Chris Carter

One year removed from clobbering 37 homers, Carter projects to get the everyday nod in Milwaukee. He’ll benefit from an extreme hitter-friendly ballpark and an organization that can be patient enough to cope with his low batting average and high-strikeout tendencies. A decent BABIP and 550 plate appearances could see Carter hit 30-plus homers with a .225 batting average and 80 runs batted in—a solid bet to be more valuable than any other name mentioned in this tier.