Welcome, to Baseball Prospectus’ first (or at least first time in a long time) in-season rankings update to our preseason positional tiers article. As we did during the preseason, players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. In addition, unlike with the preseason “star” ratings, these lists can also be viewed as a straight ranking.
Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will provide first or second round draft value and will be worth $30 or more in auction formats. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will earn more than $20 in auction formats. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are the types of players who provide back end roster value. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of what has happened year-to-date but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen the rest of 2016.
If you are wondering why a specific player isn’t listed, please note that in many cases players in the one-star tier and players who are not ranked are interchangeable.
The rankings above assume a 15-team, standard 5×5 Roto scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). Position eligibility is based on either 20 games at the position last year or five games this year.
Monday: Catcher, First Base, Second Base
Tuesday: Shortstop, Third Base, Outfield
Wednesday: Starting Pitcher, Relief Pitcher
Five Star
1) Mike Trout
2) Bryce Harper
3) Mookie Betts
6) Ryan Braun
We’re getting really close to the point where Harper can overtake Trout for the title of top overall player in fantasy, but as you can tell by the rankings you just read, he’s not there yet. With Trout looking to reverse his declining stolen base output, he’s the stud we all knew he would be. Yet with Harper running a lot more under Dusty Baker than he did under Matt Williams, it’s really just the batting average that is the separator at this point, and their true talents lie far closer together than the roughly 50-point difference right now. Enjoy them. Love them. Own them.
Betts is sneaking up on becoming the first double-digit performer in both homers and steals, while his counting stats explode (he’s on pace for over 140 runs and over 120 RBI—which is insane in this day and age). Meanwhile, about 200 miles to the southwest, the Mets have yet another in-prime superstar on their hands as Cespedes has picked up right where he left off in the last two months of 2015. Unfortunately for Mets fans, he looks poised to hit himself right out of that contact and find himself right back on the free agent market this winter. The Pirates have been aggressive on the basepaths this year and Marte, who picked up his 13th steal last night, has led the charge. Unfortunately for him, the offense surrounding him (and his complete inability to draw a walk) has led to surprisingly low counting stats up to this point. This ranking supposes that I like that aspect to change. Braun would be up near Cespedes if there wasn’t a constant lingering fear that he might be hurt at any time. Last week, he missed a few games with a sore back, but is back to continue to lay waste to National League pitching.
And here is where we pour one out for A.J. Pollock and those who drafted him.
Five-Star Value Pick: Andrew McCutchen
Through May 22nd, McCutchen was hitting .248/.337/.467 and outside of the eight homers, it’s been a disappointing start for those who took him in the first round this year. Yet we don’t have to have too long of a memory to know how this story might end. Last year through May 22nd, McCutchen was hitting .240/.337/.404 and was even more of a disappointment to those who drafted him than he has been this year. Yes, there was the knee injury that contributed to this in 2015, but the same knee has bothered him off and on this year as well. If he’s not running enough to steal 20 bases anymore, there’s a cap on his value, but he doesn’t to hit that number to be a five-star outfielder.
Four Star
8) George Springer
10) Chris Davis
11) Charlie Blackmon
12) Christian Yelich
13) Adam Jones
14) Lorenzo Cain
15) Gregory Polanco
16) Jose Bautista
17) J.D. Martinez
18) Nelson Cruz
19) Hanley Ramirez
20) Carlos Gonzalez
This tier isn’t quite as thick as it was during the preseason, as some of the names have fallen into the depths and some (Betts, Marte, Braun) have ascended to the heavens. Springer has been solid but hasn’t been stealing bases at the rate that many expected. Success rate, that is—he’s been caught six times in nine attempts. Stanton has taken his strikeout rate from high to excessive and it’s going to put a hurt on his batting average. But with the bottom of the lineup just a shade cleaner than a cesspool, that runs scored total might end up as the most disappointing number in his profile. Jones and Martinez did not get off to good starts, but the former turned it on at the beginning of May and the latter is right in the midst of a streak that makes it look like he never disappointed to start with.
Three names have jumped from inside the top 30 to inside the top 20 in Yelich, Polanco, and Ramirez. The Marlin isn’t running a ton yet, but his contact skills suggest that he’s finally ready to make a run at that batting title, and there’s been more usable power than we’re accustomed to seeing. It may not be a huge dip, but he’s hitting fewer grounders than ever before (58.5 percent), and any additional balls he can put in the air is a good thing. The elder statesman of the group is enjoying his last season of non-first base eligibility without actually having to step foot in the outfield (thankfully). He’s more comfortable at the plate, he’s hitting in the middle of possibly the best lineup in baseball, and most importantly he’s healthy. Sometimes I think that the best possible thing to happen to Ramirez was the vilification of Pablo Sandoval, as it let him off the hook and had to have made it much more comfortable for him to play in Boston.
Four-Star Value Pick: Gregory Polanco
The power would come, they said. Look at that body, they said. Well, this year we’re seeing it. Polanco is combining a step forward in power (his current .227 ISO would be more than 100 points higher than last year’s) with a better approach at the plate. And this isn’t just an “I’m going to see more pitches” thing, he’s not really swinging less than he has previously. He’s just not letting his pitches go by anymore. He could push for a 20/20 season this year, complementing that with over 100 runs and a run at the league lead in doubles. Get ready to start calling him a star.
Three Star
21) Odubel Herrera
22) Mark Trumbo
23) Hunter Pence
23) Adam Eaton
24) Justin Upton
25) Dexter Fowler
26) Michael Conforto
27) Jason Heyward
28) Wil Myers
29) Matt Kemp
30) Billy Hamilton
31) Jackie Bradley Jr
32) Nomar Mazara
33) Jacoby Ellsbury
34) Stephen Piscotty
35) Marcell Ozuna
36) Gerardo Parra
This is the crossroads tier. A place where risers like Myers, Bradley and Mazara can roll down the windows and wave to fallers like Upton, Heyward and Ellsbury. Atop the tier, however, is one of the biggest risers of them all. Herrera started the year off at the top of the one-star tier, but his incredible transformation even from last season has catapulted upwards. He already has drawn more walks (31) than he did last season (28), and he has a quarter of the strikeouts to show for it. This leaves him as a true candidate to hit .310 or higher consistently—and when paired with some pop and speed, you get a player who is super closer to joining the four-star world.
The helium continues. Conforto is establishing himself as a hitter who can contribute both in average and power, and down in Texas, Mazara is doing the same. Both were already high-end options in dynasty leagues heading into the season, but redrafters can believe as well. Bradley is not this good, but if he were, he might be the leading candidate for AL MVP. Instead, he’ll likely settle as more of a .290-.300 hitter with near 20-homer power and some steals to boot. That is a far cry from the defensive specialist many thought he was becoming.
Three-Star Value Pick: Billy Hamilton
Yes, Hamilton has only stolen eight bases so far this year, which is far off from the elite number he needs to make up for the fact that he doesn’t really offer much value anywhere else, despite his single home run and 18 runs scored. It’s not even that his batting average has been so great this year either—he was hitting .243 heading into Monday’s games and I’m just going to pencil him in for an 0-fer against Kershaw since that’s the safe bet with just about everyone. It’s the nature of his hits. Hamilton has reduced his fly ball rate so far from just north of 37 percent in each of the last two seasons to 23 percent this year. More grounders and line drives are a wonderful thing from Hamilton, they just haven’t shown up in the raw numbers yet. Give it time.
Two Star
37) Ben Revere
38) Randal Grichuk
39) Denard Span
40) Jay Bruce
41) Khris Davis
42) Leonys Martin
43) Melvin Upton Jr
45) Shin-Soo Choo
46) Yasmany Tomas
47) Kole Calhoun
48) Yasiel Puig
49) Billy Burns
50) Joc Pederson
51) Matt Holliday
52) Michael Brantley
53) Steven Souza
54) Michael Saunders
55) Alex Gordon
56) Colby Rasmus
Two-Star Value Pick: Leonys Martin
You may have heard of him from such seasons as 2013 and 2014, when he stole upwards of 30 bases in each. The power has been awfully surprising this year, especially considering he plays half his games in Safeco now, but reliance on that continuing is not the basis for this recommendation. After an April that saw him hit .200, he’s been over .300 in May with a reduction in strikeouts, and he’s now led off each of the last two games. Of course, he’s played nine more games on the road than at home and he’s hit seven of those eight homers away from Seattle, but if there weren’t warts here, he wouldn’t be in the two-star tier.
One Star
57) Carlos Gomez
58) Josh Reddick
59) Corey Dickerson
60) Melky Cabrera
61) Rajai Davis
62) Brett Gardner
63) Brandon Moss
64) Cameron Maybin
65) Byron Buxton
66) Carlos Beltran
67) Jayson Werth
68) Kevin Kiermaier
69) Kevin Pillar
70) Trayce Thompson
71) Domingo Santana
72) David Peralta
73) Mallex Smith
74) Jesse Winker
75) Ender Inciarte
One-Star Value Pick: Jayson Werth
The hidden value of Werth is his ability to produce counting stats—which is something you can’t really say of too many other players in this tier. Quietly, over the last week, Dusty Baker has started putting him in the two-hole and he has an .856 OPS (ridiculously small sample size alert) in those five games. What’s not ridiculous is that he’s likely to be pitched to differently being right in front of Bryce Harper than he was hitting in front of Wilson Ramos. The average may never be what it was, but he can get it into the .250 range and tack on a few residual steals from Dusty’s aggressive tendencies.
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