In-Season Fantasy Valuations: Second Edition, 2016

We are almost halfway through the 2016 season, so it is time to take a look at what players have earned year-to-date in fantasy baseball.

In the linked document, you will find values through games of Wednesday, June 29^th for:

• American League Hitters
• American League Pitchers
• National League Hitters
• National League Pitchers

The formulas used to derive these valuations are not based on last year’s statistical formulas but rather on 2016 statistics year-to-date. Average salaries are based on the auction rosters for the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars AL- and NL-only expert leagues. The formulas are SGP-based off of the aforementioned auction rosters for CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars.

Last time, I looked at how players were doing 54 games into the 2016 season compared to how they were doing in 2015 at approximately the same time. Today, I will compare the top 10 players from four weeks ago to where they currently stand.

Table 1: Top 10 AL Hitters 2016

Not only has Altuve kept up his amazing pace, he has slightly improved upon it. It’s difficult to earn $50 in 5×5 fantasy formats, but Altuve’s power speed combination is pushing him toward a historic fantasy season for a middle infielder. Four of the top five hitters on the list remain the same, with Desmond replacing Kinsler. Nunez is the biggest new addition; his crazy jump in stolen bases propels him all the way to sixth overall.

Table 2: Top 10 NL Hitters 2016

As was the case last month, steals dominate at the top, with Marte and Villar both jumping past Murphy. The NL Top 10 had much more movement than the AL did, with half of the hitters on Table 2 new to the Top 10 from the previous update. Coors Field played a factor not only for Gonzalez and Arenado but for Goldschmidt and Segura, who benefited from a crazy series at Coors this past weekend. Bryant’s big five extra-base hit day helped him move to eighth overall.

Table 3: Top Ten AL Pitchers 2016

Sale maintains as the top pitcher on the board but he isn’t nearly on the same excellent pace he was four weeks ago. Pitchers fluctuate far more than hitters, so it isn’t too much of a surprise to see significant changes in the Top 10. The biggest surprises to valuation novices are Miller and Brach, but relievers with great ERA/WHIP can and do make an impact. It is unlikely that Miller and especially Brach end the season in the Top 10, but a $15-20 season in AL-only from a reliever shouldn’t surprise.

Table 4: Top 10 NL Pitchers, 2015 versus 2016

Kershaw dipped slightly pre-injury. He will likely drop into the low-$40s in the next update. The Top 10 in the NL is a far more stable group than in the AL, with only three pitchers changing from the last update. Nola is a cautionary tale of the worst that can happen to a pitcher off to a strong start; after a terrible month, he is on pace to earn $10. Teheran is the other side of this coin. His ridiculous run over the last four weeks propelled him into the Top 10. The recent run of NL injuries shows that as stable as the top pitchers appear, volatility among pitchers is far more significant in-season than it is among hitters.