Early ADP Analysis: Outfielders

We have reached the outfield section of our fantasy positional series, which means we’ll be looking at the deepest and most robust section of any fantasy roster. In this post, as always, we’ll be looking at the early ADP Analysis from early NFBC drafts and looking at the biggest movers compared to their standing in last year’s column. Once again, the average round is based on a 15-team draft. Without further ado, let’s get to the players.

(Early) Early Rounds

A few mainstays are joined atop the draft by a couple of fast risers…

Bryce Harper, Nationals

At this point last year, Harper was being discussed as a possible 1-1 pick. After a down 2016, at least for him, he’s moved to the bottom of the top ten. This could end up being great value for the young superstar, as there wasn’t a lot to be afraid of in his down year. His plate discipline remained as strong as ever, and his batted ball profile didn’t change too much. He did pull the ball a bit less, but I’d still expect him to get back to at least 30 home runs in 2017 and something close to a .275 AVG. If he can do that while keeping the gains in SB he made last year, he’ll be right back at the top of the draft next year.

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

After being selected in the middle of the third round in 2016, Blackmon’s big year in Colorado has gotten him up to the top of the second round in early drafts this winter. After flirting with 20 homers in his first two full seasons, Blackmon blew by that mark with 29 in 2016. He paired that with strong contextual numbers, a .324 AVG, and 17 steals. I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep his home run total quite that high, but Coors should continue to boost that AVG and any downturn in homers could be outweighed by an uptick in steals to get closer to his 2014 and 2015 totals. Combine that with playing in Nolan Arenado’s lineup, this should be solid value for Blackmon even if he won’t exactly be a steal.

(Middle) Early Rounds)

Buy low on some of this year’s highest-profile fallers…

Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

There aren’t many more high-profile fallers than Stanton, who was a top ten pick heading into last year’s drafts. The power is still very much there — as we saw in last summer’s Home Run Derby — but the rest of the game is a bit scary. His propensity for strikeouts looks like it’s here to stay at this point, so his AVG depends on a high BABIP that he hasn’t produced for two years now. Between that and his struggle to stay on the field all year, there are real red flags here. The upside is enormous and getting him in the third round could be a steal, but given the risks this seems like the right spot for the Marlins slugger.

Christian Yelich, Marlins

Just one round later, you get Stanton’s teammate who is trending in the opposite direction. Yelich has been looked at as a potential breakout for the last few years, and he made good on that potential in 2016. Unfortunately, the helium may be carrying him a bit too high, at least in roto leagues. The AVG is here to stay, but the power may have been a fluke. I don’t doubt he can stay in the double digits, but he hits far too many ground balls to really count on 20+ home runs again. Yelich is likely to be a solid fantasy asset yet again in 2017, but I’d prefer waiting at least another round on the 25-year-old.

(Late) Early Rounds

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

While Stanton is surely a high-profile faller, McCutchen has him beat in that category. After being a perennial first-round pick for what seems like forever, he’s fallen all the way down to the bottom of the top 20 at his position. This may end up being one of my favorite buy-low players in the entire draft. His biggest issue last year was AVG, which fell all the way down to .256. Part of that was due to an increasing K%, which appears here to stay. On the other hand, his BABIP fell below .300 for the first time since 2011 despite a similar batted-ball profile. He won’t be a first round pick again, but if he can get his AVG up by 20-30 points, he’ll look a lot better than his current ADP.

Mark Trumbo, Orioles

At this point last year, Trumbo was being selected way down in the 13th round. Hitting 47 home runs is an easy way to get yourself up to the fifth round. In 2017, he’ll remain in Camden Yards, which should go a long way towards keeping that home run total up. I’d be surprised if he threatens 50 dingers again, but he should easily surpass 30. Baltimore’s lineup should give him just as many RBI and R opportunities again as well. You know what you’re getting from Trumbo at this point, so it’s up to you how you value that kind production.

(Early) Middle Rounds

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

Like Stanton and McCutchen, Bautista is moving on from being a mainstay atop fantasy drafts. This difference in the case is age, as Bautista is entering his age-36 season. We mostly know what we’re getting out of the Blue Jays right fielder at this point when he’s on the field. The power is still there, as he put up a .217 ISO in a down 2016. The AVG is going to be low due to low BABIPs and an increasing K-rate, though the latter should improve a bit after coming in at a career-high in 2016. Toronto’s lineup should still be good next year and help his contextual numbers, though maybe slightly less so without Edwin Encarnacion. Given his age, it’s no guarantee he’ll be able to stay on the field, though, making this a fine draft spot for the slugger.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., Red Sox

Bradley’s draft spot figures contain one of the biggest ranges among outfielders, as he’s one of the hardest to figure out. At times, he looks like the second coming of Willie Mays. Then, just a few weeks later, he can look like a Triple-A hitter. At the end of the day, you’re likely getting something very close to what he did last year. A decent AVG that won’t help or hurt you, solid power numbers with around 20-25 home runs, and good contextual numbers thanks to a strong Red Sox lineup. You’ll have to deal with extreme hot and cold streaks, but if you ride it out Bradley should make good on his current ADP by the end of the year.

(Middle) Middle Rounds

Adam Duvall, Reds

Among players who were drafted last season, no outfielder made a bigger jump in ADP than Duvall. He surprised everyone with his performance in 2016, his first full season in the majors. He smashed 30 home runs with 103 RBI. His power is going to continue to be his calling card, and he should be able to stay in the high-20s given his home park. Unfortunately, that’s likely all he’ll be producing. The Reds won’t have a great lineup, giving him a lower floor than most power hitters in RBI and R, and he’ll be virtually no help in AVG or SB. At this point in the draft, you’ll know how much you need power, which will dictate whether or not this will be good value.

Carlos Gomez, Rangers

Gomez represents one of the best chances at a steal at this point in the draft. He was awful for most of 2016, but he really turned it around after being sent to Texas. The issue is, that turnaround came in just 130 plate appearances, calling its legitimacy into question. Like Duvall, this pick has a lot to do with the rest of your roster. If you feel like you went safe with your previous 10 picks, this could be a good time for a big upside pick like Gomez. If you need more safety, you’re not going to find that here.

(Late) Middle Rounds

Nomar Mazara, Rangers

One of the most hyped rookies of 2016, Mazara was solid in his first year even if he didn’t meet some’s absurdly high expectations. He launched 20 home runs, which is likely around where he’ll stay in 2017. While I wouldn’t expect him to make any improvements in steals, either, he can improve everywhere else. He hit .266 last year, thanks to an average BABIP and K-rate. There’s a good chance both of these will improve a bit in his second season, meaning he could get his AVG closer to the .280-range. Combine that with some improvements in contextual stats, that gives him a good baseline for the 14th round. And that’s without factoring in the breakout potential for one of the best-regarded young hitters in baseball. Take advantage of this ADP.

Michael Brantley, Indians

After missing basically all of 2016 with shoulder problems, fantasy owners have dropped Brantley all the way down to the 15th round. On the surface, this seems like an overreaction to me. Obviously, there is some risk that shoulder injuries can forever alter a player’s swing, but I wouldn’t mind taking that risk a few rounds earlier. Before the injury, Brantley was a huge contributer in AVG with solid HR and SB totals. Now, he’ll be in an improved Indians lineup with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion, giving him big opportunities to help in RBI and R. His shoulder may change everything, but if he’s the same guy he might be the best value in the entire draft.

(Early) Late Rounds

Jason Heyward, Cubs

Pretty much everything went right for the Cubs last year, with Heyward being the most notable exception. His first year in Chicago was forgettable, and it moved him a whopping 180 spots down the draft board from last year. In 2017, I’d expect small bounce backs in every category, though I still wouldn’t be looking for a top fantasy contributor. At this position, the risk of him falling even further is well worth it, though I’d caution anyone looking for huge upside from this pick.

(Middle) Late Rounds)

David Peralta, Diamondbacks

At this time last year, Peralta was one of my favorite picks. He was being taken in the middle of the draft, and was coming off a year, which hinted big things could be in his future. The outfielder rewarded me by missing most of the season and taking a step back in production when he was on the field. If he can stay on the field, I still believe in his line drive ability that leads to high AVGs and decent home run totals. Like Heyward in the last section, I don’t know that there’s huge potential here, but his skills and a sneaky strong Diamondbacks lineup could provide good value late in the draft.

(Late) Late Rounds

Ben Revere, Angels

Once one of the most underrated roto assets in all of baseball, Revere took a massive step back in 2016. His AVG fell by a whopping 90 (NINETY) points from 2015, and he stole fewer than 20 bases for the first time since 2010 when he played in just 13 games. The good news is he’s not particularly old, and his AVG issues look to be mostly due to BABIP fluctuation. The bad news is it wasn’t all bad luck, as he increased his fly ball rate substantially. He should get back to something around a .260-.270 AVG, but it’s unclear how much that will help. He’s not guaranteed everyday time in Los Angeles, so his SB floor is quite low. The skills are still there for him to be a big roto asset, but his current situation doesn’t help matters.

Undrafted

Unsurprisingly, this is a massive tier and you can find just about anything you’re looking for. Denard Span, Jayson Werth, and Michael Saunders are there for veterans. Mallex Smith is there for speed upside. Lewis Brinson is there for a draft-and-stash candidate at the end of drafts. Mitch Haniger is there if you’re looking for a player that’s gotten some substantial low-key hype (if there’s such a thing) this offseason. If you lose an outfielder early this spring, there will be plenty of options to replace them.