Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part II

To read the previous editions in this series, follow the links below:

• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Catchers
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: First Base
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Second Base
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Third Base
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Shortstop
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Outfielder, Part I
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Outfielder, Part II
• Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitcher, Part I

This is part two of a two-part series ranking starting pitchers. The first part ran yesterday. You can read that article by clicking on the link above.

Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and will fetch mixed-league auction bids over $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't a regurgitation of last year's values but rather offer insight into what we expect will happen in 2017.

Dollar values come from last year's PFM using a 12-team, standard 5×5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and we allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players' dollar values.

Two Stars

Including the two-star tier, we have now looked at 79 pitchers. For comparative purposes, LABR’s 15-team mixed league drafted 81 starting pitchers in the active phase of their draft (23 rounds). You’re not bothering with most of these pitchers in 12-team mixed leagues, and particularly in leagues with small reserve lists. In shallower leagues, I want pitchers like Gray and Norris over pitchers like McHugh and Wainwright. Gray has the stuff to be an ace, and even in deeper leagues where you should commit to at least some of his starts at Coors, the high strikeout rate and acceptable WHIP makes Gray a potential $10-15 earner.

Bundy has a reputation as a brittle pitcher who many thought would never make it as a starter, but last year the Orioles gave him an opportunity to toe the rubber every fifth day after the All-Star game and Bundy proved durable enough. The problem was that while the strikeout rate was impressive Bundy surrendered 15 home runs in 71 2/3 innings. It couldn’t even be blamed on Camden Yards, as Bundy allowed just as many home runs on the road as he did at home in 16 1/3 fewer innings. This ranking is aggressive based on Bundy’s promise, but he will need more repeatability with his secondary offerings to survive as a starting pitcher.

Many expected Zimmermann to slip somewhat when he moved from the NL to the AL, but no one expected the nearly complete collapse he experienced in his first year in the Motor City. Zimmermann’s strikeout rate plummeted and despite the move to a pitchers’ park in Detroit he was pummeled there, allowing a 7.00 ERA in 54 innings. Zimmermann was never an elite strikeout guy, but he is going to have to get closer to his typical seven and a half strikeouts per nine if he has any hope of returning value for his fantasy managers. Injuries were a serious culprit, so a completely healthy Zimmermann is a stealth bounce back candidate.

It should come as no surprise that DRA darling Pineda has the best PECOTA projection of anyone in the two-star tier. His ERA/DRA differential was third best among starters, behind only Tyler Duffey and Nola. Pineda’s ERA/DRA differential in 2015 was second best, so in his case it has not been predictive of future success. Pineda struggles with men on base and his home venue doesn’t help. Twenty of Pineda’s 27 home runs last year were surrendered at home.

Two-Star Value Pick: Jaime Garcia
Garcia got off to a solid start and then the wheels came off. From June 1 until the end of the season, Garcia had a 5.30 ERA and allowed 23 home runs in 112 innings. Garcia’s excellent 2015 made many believe that he could carry that success into 2016 but instead the wheels came off, perhaps thanks to the highest workload he had seen since 2011.Having a year of good health under his belt might mitigate this risk. Garcia is both a health and performance risk, but the upside that has always tantalized fantasy owners is present, and the price is certainly right.

ONE STAR

A couple of caveats about this tier. First, starting pitching is volatile across the board, but this is especially true at the bottom. There are at least 25-30 pitchers who didn’t make this list who will finish 2017 in the Top 100. Second, the usual format differences apply more here than they do elsewhere. Hellickson is a must in deep leagues where volume is important. In shallower leagues, the matchup must be ideal because 2016 is the likely ceiling. If you’re wondering why a certain pitcher isn’t here, it is because of this variability. It isn’t because I hate your team, real or otherwise.

Kennedy generates groans from casual mixed league players, but check out the numbers. Since 2012, Kennedy’s 915 strikeouts are 14^th best in major league baseball. Kennedy is a volume play, although he’s a relatively reliable one thanks to the strikeouts and durability. Kansas City helped him keep balls in the yard; only 12 of the 33 home runs that Kennedy allowed were at home. Kennedy is going to allow home runs, and there is no skill tied to whether those home runs happen with men on the bases or not. Kennedy is helped by his outfield defense, though I sure do wish that Jarrod Dyson was still a Royal. Kennedy is a streamer in mixed leagues. He’s a must in mono leagues.

Anderson’s numbers were good even for a Rockies pitcher. However, I am skeptical that the 3.00 ERA at home and extreme ground ball profile are sustainable. Anderson’s ERA climbed in almost every month and his fly ball rate spiked in the second half. Anderson’s a fine flier but don’t get too hot and bothered about him just yet.

I know I’m the minority, but steady veterans who have a track record interest me more than high-risk rookies. Santana is one of those guys. The lower strikeout rates are a minus in an era when eight strikeouts per nine is starting to seem rather ordinary, but Santana pounds the zone and unlike many pitchers moving into their mid-30s has managed to maintain his fastball velocity. Santana fits the bill as a mid-tier starter in AL-only but shouldn’t be underestimated as a spot guy in mixed.

If you are looking for a young guy with breakout potential who won’t cost very much, Foltynewicz is a solid choice. His 4.31 ERA in his last 10 starts masked a 3.48 FIP in those starts as well as a home run rate that dropped to 0.8 per nine innings. With a mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider, Folty has the stuff to succeed but is being discounted everywhere because of a career ERA of 4.92. Young pitchers don’t always burst onto the scene as polished products, and Folty fits the model of a young arm learning to trust his pitches and maximize their potential. He’s risky, but who isn’t in this tier? Of all the younger guys in the one-star tier, Folty is the one I’m buying in on the most in my leagues.

One-Star Value Pick: Francisco Liriano
I could cheat and pick Glasnow, but he’s going to be taken everywhere, even if it is only as a reserve flier. The upside of a pitcher who struck out over a batter and inning last year, turned his season around after he went to Toronto, and who has done it before when he is healthy is tantalizing. It is also a possible recipe for failure, but remember, these are primarily reserve picks in every format but only leagues. Roll the dice on the guy who could strike out 180-190.