We, at Baseball Prospectus, have been talking about starting pitchers for a while now (seven days and change to be exact, depending on when you are reading this) and the party continues to rage on. Yet before we rage, we shall calibrate—since rankings aren’t useful without knowing what you’re reading. The list you are about to read here presupposes a 16-team standard (read: 5×5 roto) dynasty format, in which there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever, and owners have minor-league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2016 ETAs down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or -only formats.
Here’s how this one is going to work. There’s just so much here that I’m going to give a little longer of an introduction and then present the list without comment. I invite you all to ask whatever clarifying questions you have in the comments.
The dynasty landscape for pitchers is in a strange place right now, as we have our prototypical aces (and it’s a shorter list than usual), but the next wave of pitchers behind them has more warts than we’re used to seeing. Whether it’s due to the injury risk in should-be-aces like Carlos Carrasco or Stephen Strasburg, or the recent performance swings in Chris Archer and David Price. And with the rise in strikeouts across the league and decrease in innings thrown by starters, the aces as a whole tick up in value, which further frustrates with the should-be guys.
There’s really not a noticeable next wave coming either. We’ve got Noah Syndergaard. We had Jose Fernandez, until his tragic accident. Even some of the breakout guys from 2016 like Kyle Hendricks, Aaron Sanchez and Michael Fulmer don’t carry SP1 potential. Alex Reyes could have been a breakout candidate, but blew out his elbow a few weeks back. The best hope we have of increasing the upper tier is through comebacks by players who were once considered at that level. Gerrit Cole and Matt Harvey both still carry that upside, even though the latter will need to show he’s back to full strength first following surgery to for thoracic outlet syndrome. Zack Greinke went off the rails in 2016.
We won’t notice it quite yet, but the last two drafts have been strong for arms. The reason why most of them still rank pretty low on this list (and overall) is that trying to figure out which pre full-season ball arms are going to make it and produce in the majors is a losing proposition from the start. That said, the quantity right now suggest they’ll be quality, even if the names might surprise us.
Without any further ado, the top 175 starting pitchers in dynasty formats:
1) Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
3) Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
4) Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
6) Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
9) Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
10) Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
11) Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
12) David Price, Boston Red Sox
13) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
14) Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
15) Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
16) Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
17) Carlos Martinez, St Louis Cardinals
18) Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
19) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
20) Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
21) Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
22) Matt Harvey, New York Mets
23) Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
24) Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
25) Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
26) Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
27) Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
28) Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
29) Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers
30) Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates
31) Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
32) Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
33) Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers
34) Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
35) Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
36) Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
37) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
38) Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
39) Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
40) Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
41) Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
42) Lance McCullers, Houston Astros
43) Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies
44) Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
45) Steven Matz, New York Mets
46) James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
47) Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
48) Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
49) Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers
50) Alex Reyes, St Louis Cardinals
51) Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
52) Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
53) Robert Gsellman, New York Mets
54) Joe Ross, Washington Nationals
55) Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
56) Yadier Alvarez, Los Angeles Dodgers
57) Jason Groome, Boston Red Sox
58) Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants
59) Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays
60) Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
61) Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
62) Anderson Espinoza, San Diego Padres
63) Francis Martes, Houston Astros
64) Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
65) Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox
66) Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
67) Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
68) Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
69) Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
70) Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
71) John Lackey, Chicago Cubs
72) Cody Reed, Cincinnati Reds
73) Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
74) Drew Smyly, Seattle Mariners
75) Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
76) Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
77) Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
78) Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies
79) Michael Wacha, St Louis Cardinals
80) Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
81) Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox
82) Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
83) Francisco Liriano, Toronto Blue Jays
84) Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds
85) Cal Quantrill, San Diego Padres
86) Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
87) A.J. Puk, Oakland Athletics
88) Jose De Leon, Tampa Bay Rays
89) Franklyn Kilome, Philadelphia Phillies
90) Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers
91) Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
92) Adam Wainwright, St Louis Cardinals
93) Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves
94) Yohander Mendez, Texas Rangers
95) Sandy Alcantara, St Louis Cardinals
96) Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels
97) Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
98) Lance Lynn, St Louis Cardinals
99) Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
100) Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
101) J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays
102) Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates
103) Daniel Norris, Detroit Tigers
104) Zack Wheeler, New York Mets
105) Tyson Ross, Texas Rangers
106) Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
107) Sean Newcomb, Los Angeles Angels
108) Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians
109) Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
110) Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds
111) Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
112) Luis Severino, New York Yankees
113) Grant Holmes, Oakland Athletics
114) Justin Dunn, New York Mets
115) Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
116) Mike Montgomery, Chicago Cubs
117) Thomas Szapucki, New York Mets
118) Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers
119) Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies
120) Adrian Morejon, San Diego Padres
121) Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros
122) Luke Weaver, St Louis Cardinals
123) Erick Fedde, Washington Nationals
124) Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
125) Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox
126) Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers
127) Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
128) Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
129) Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
130) Jaime Garcia, Atlanta Braves
131) Kolby Allard, Atlanta Braves
132) Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros
133) Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
134) Clay Buchholz, Philadelphia Phillies
135) Justus Sheffield, New York Yankees
136) Adam Conley, Miami Marlins
136) James Kaprelian, New York Yankees
137) Alec Hansen, Chicago White Sox
138) Mike Leake, St Louis Cardinals
139) Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals
140) Luis Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers
141) Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
142) Riley Pint, Colorado Rockies
143) Fernando Romero, Minnesota Twins
144) Andrew Cashner, Texas Rangers
145) Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins
146) Norge Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
147) Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
148) Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
149) Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers
150) Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
151) Mike Fiers, Houston Astros
152) Dan Straily, Miami Marlins
153) Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
154) Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
155) Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers
156) Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
157) Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves
158) Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics
159) Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants
160) Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox
161) David Paulino, Houston Astros
162) Nate Karns, Kansas City Royals
163) Jake Thompson, Philadelphia Phillies
164) Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves
165) Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians
166) Dylan Cease, Chicago Cubs
167) Tyler Jay, Minnesota Twins
168) James Shields, Chicago White Sox
169) Brady Aiken, Cleveland Indians
170) Brock Stewart, Los Angeles Dodgers
171) Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
172) R. A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves
173) Trevor Clifton, Chicago Cubs
174) Sean-Reid Foley, Toronto Blue Jays
175) Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Thank you for reading
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53) Robert Gsellman, New York Mets
Just normal wear and tear associated with an uptick in innings over the last two seasons or something more? He's just not featuring the slider that made him such a beast in 2015.
Thanks for this really fun list.