Below is my third bid limit update. There aren’t too many changes this week. Once again, any changes of two dollars in either direction will be listed below for players with significant value. Mixed league bids will reflect the same valuation change unless otherwise noted.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Non-LABR Adjustments
Jason Kipnis $18 (previous $24)
It is possible I am overreacting to Kipnis’ injury, but given the talent at the top at second base in the American League I would rather move Kipnis down one or two dollars “too many” than pay $20-22 and find myself in a situation where he misses half the season.
Carlos Carrasco $19 (previous $22)
The news on Carrasco’s elbow was positive (the MRI came back clean). On the other hand, it’s an elbow issue. If he pitches a healthy outing, I’ll bump him most of the way back up in the next update.
David Price $10 (previous $14).
Another week has passed and the information about Price’s recovery is even more nebulous than it was on March 10. He did some light throwing today, but it doesn’t sound like Price is close to ramping it up and going full speed. Even if everything turns out to be fine, the Red Sox are likely to be super cautious given their pitching depth.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jacob deGrom $19 (previous $17)
His health and velocity this spring are both turning me back into a believer.
Ian Desmond $19 (previous $28)
Mark Reynolds $7 (previous $2)
This adjustment builds in about a month of missed time during the regular season for Desmond but also considers the uncertainty many hitters have recovering their swing and power after a hand injury.
Jose Reyes $16 (previous $14)
Prorate Reyes’ 2016 to 120 games and he’s a $20 player in NL-only 5×5. The market is somewhat underestimating him, but even if Reyes isn’t quite a full timer, there is a good deal of value left.
Zack Greinke $15 (previous $18)
Greinke’s diminished velocity combined with his subpar 2016 makes me wary. This is still a decent price, but I don’t want to creep toward $20 with him.
Matt Wieters $11 (previous $8)
With Derek Norris out of the picture, it is clear that Wieters will get almost all the at bats behind the dish in DC.
Jung-Ho Kang $8 (previous $12) (removed from mixed)
David Freese $6 (previous $4)
Kang might have difficulty getting a visa to come play baseball in the United States. I will leave the legal opinions on this matter to the legal experts, but this is a situation I don’t want any part of in a redraft league.
Tom Murphy $6 (previous $9)
Broken forearm.
Anthony DeSclafani $5 (previous $9) (mixed -$3)
DeSclafani was unlikely to bring back high end numbers, but now concerns about his elbow push him down nearly 50 percent in mixed and down to a one-dollar flier in deep mixed leagues. In standard mixed, feel free to cross him off your sheet entirely.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
Both sides offer $12 in savings. Would you take depth or "star" power? I'm struggling with this one.
Facing a keeper deadline tonight and feeling under-prepared and confused...
Your response on Simmons was very helpful. This is exactly the kind of guy (Mallex Smith is another) who I would get burned on in the past. I would use the HQ values, run the CDG, glance at CBS and LABR bids and dismiss them out of hand. I would easily conclude, "They just don't get it."
I would roster these guys happily against my foolish competitors. Get burned. Rinse, repeat.
Using your bids, rationale and other info from this site and the Alex Patton site has been a real eye opener. I know Simmons and Smith are different players for different reasons but now I have a better feel for how much to pay and why.
Thanks for your time and sharing your thought processes.
Any idea how a team auto-drafting in the auction effects the prices overall?
I have Keuchel at the same bid. Do you agree with the underlying PECOTA projection? Do you feel his 2016 problems were due to hidden injuries or something else?
I thought his command was a little off in the games I watched him pitch. Keuchel is a pitcher who doesn't have the margin for error that others with more velocity do. If the command is back, he could be a solid bargain. But that's an if for me
And your high values, I assume you simply see better upside: Cameron Rupp, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Altherr (will he get a job?),
Thanks.
PRS
Bell is going to be a solid real life player who I don't see having a big fantasy impact in any counting category
I'm not sure if you think I'm too high or too low on Dickerson/Joseph. I got Dickerson for $9 in LABR but think he'll be worth much more than that. My Joseph bid is very close to what he cost in CBS and LABR
Rupp should start. He's boring but has power behind the dish.
Asdrubal made a similar adjustment to the one Daniel Murphy made in 2015. He hit 306/358/566 from July 1 on and I believe this was due to tangible improvements
I might move Altherr up a couple bucks in the next update. He's having a good spring. My concern is that with Saunders ahead of him and Williams/Quinn behind him the window is very small
Not intending to pick nits, just trying to help.
I am curious how you deal with expected money left on the table after the auction in calculating values of players before the auction in a keeper league. That is, with standard $3120 12 team budget do you just figure the totals adding up to the full $3120 and ignore the fact that you know there will be about $50 left on the table?
Thanks a lot.