We continue with our fantasy positional rankings, this time moving on to the hot corner. Third base is one of the stronger positions in baseball right now, but PECOTA does not seem too enthused about many of the players. While a few are well above average, PECOTA has forecasted many of the players for merely average production, including some names that may surprise you given their upside and past performance.
Third base is also intriguing thanks to the number of players who double as first baseman, which raises the question of whether or not you should draft two first baseman and skip out on a true third baseman if one of them can man that position? When is a good time to pick at this position, since so many of the options have similar production? That’s what we’ll try to sort out with today’s list.
In order to make these rankings, I used the 2009 weighted-mean PECOTA projections as a base, and tweaked the results as I saw fit. This isn’t a descending list of projected 2009 VORP by any means. Make sure you check out the players’ 75th– and 25th-percentile forecasts on their PECOTA cards once they’re released, as those may help you to make decisions between players you might be debating over.
Since this keeps coming up in the comments, I want to say here that I am ranking the players at their primary position; if you don’t see a player here, it’s because he’s either not good enough or because he’s most likely ranked at a different position. This allows me to cover more players for those of you in deeper leagues.
Rank Name Team PA R HR RBI SB AVG/ OBP/ SLG Beta 1. David Wright Mets 703 121 32 107 20 .302/.400/.538 0.97 2. Chipper Jones Braves 567 104 23 90 5 .341/.443/.564 0.95 3. Alex Rodriguez Yankees 624 97 30 98 18 .282/.373/.508 1.03 4. Aramis Ramirez Cubs 615 85 26 101 2 .288/.363/.509 1.02 5. Garrett Atkins Rockies 644 90 26 97 3 .302/.371/.510 1.04 6. Evan Longoria Rays 604 80 27 88 7 .266/.342/.482 0.91 7. Edwin Encarnacion Reds 577 82 24 80 5 .283/.365/.493 0.85 8. Ryan Zimmerman Nats 597 78 19 84 4 .289/.358/.471 0.92 9. Alex Gordon Royals 628 83 23 84 13 .258/.342/.457 0.80 10. Kevin Kouzmanoff Padres 639 76 24 92 2 .275/.331/.465 0.83
David Wright is one of the few players in the game who you could classify as perfect, as he has an amazing balance of power, patience, ability to hit for average, speed, and, if your league counts it, defensive play. He’s a candidate to be taken with one of the first few picks; PECOTA thinks he’s capable of putting up a 30/20 season with a ton of runs this year, and his Beta shows no reason to doubt that.
Chipper Jones is up there with Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez as one of my favorite hitters to watch, and it looks like the forecast would agree. The one problem with Jones, and one you should all be familiar with, is that you’ll need to draft a back-up third baseman for peace of mind, because Jones will more than likely miss time with one injury or another. That shouldn’t stop you from drafting him though, because in both roto and head-to-head leagues that batting line is far too good to be ignored, which is why he’s ranked ahead of Alex Rodriguez. Honestly, if not for the difference in steals between Jones and Wright and the potential for missed playing time, this 37-year-old could be ranked #1.
If you don’t want to draft two third basemen or you can’t get Jones, A-Rod is not a bad second pick. PECOTA thinks he’s where David Wright was a few years ago before he made the leap; an impressive player, but no longer one of the most productive in the game. Based on last year, I think Rodriguez will hit closer to .300/.385/.550 or so; in my mind he’s much closer to Jones than that forecast suggests.
Aramis Ramirez is in the middle of a great lineup, and PECOTA thinks he’s capable of being well above-average at third; he’s an easy pick for the fourth slot based on that context alone. The same can be said for Garrett Atkins, who plays half of his home games at Coors, and though it’s a great forecast, Coors Field is the reason that he’s ranked where he is. Atkins also doesn’t have to worry about Ian Stewart taking his job, as the Rockies are considering giving Stewart some starts in left field to make sure he’s in the lineup while also keeping Atkins’ bat around.
I like Evan Longoria more than PECOTA’s weighted-mean projection, but I can understand the concerns. He struck out over 27 percent of the time last year, something that will need to be rectified going forward if he wants to keep his batting average from cratering. Other than that, he’s David Wright Lite, and he could finish the year as the third- or fourth-most productive guy at the position, depending on how well he can handle how the pitchers adjust to him.
Edwin Encarnacion had a very low line-drive rate last year (15.9 percent), but his .267 BABIP was still a little below expectations. Throw in the fact that he normally hits more liners (19.2 percent for his career, even with 2008 factored in) and you can see why PECOTA expects him to bounce back, as it takes BABIP regression in both directions into account. If he can keep the power he brought last year (the .215 ISO was a career high) and increase his average, then he easily earns his spot.
Ryan Zimmerman struggles against right-handers (.259/.316/.417 in 2008), but he did at least show signs of life in the second half by hitting .306/.370/.455. That makes his projection a bit more believable, and with the similarities between many of these guys, whatever upside someone can give you should be recognized as a potential edge.
Alex Gordon is someone I wrote about extensively a few weeks back. Kevin Kouzmanoff had right-shoulder surgery over the offseason and there’s some question about whether he’ll be around for opening day, but if healthy he’s going to be a solid third baseman again, despite playing in Petco. His second half was a mess, but the surgery should help fix that. Kouzmanoff has hit .282/.330/.488 on the road the past two years, even with that awful stretch when he first came into the league and his poor second half last year.
Rank Name Team PA R HR RBI SB AVG/ OBP/ SLG Beta 11. Mike Lowell Red Sox 469 51 14 69 2 .272/.332/.442 0.85 12. Mark Reynolds D'backs 567 79 29 84 9 .260/.344/.506 0.90 13. Troy Glaus Cardinals 549 70 22 81 1 .257/.366/.459 1.04 14. Adrian Beltre Mariners 611 77 21 88 9 .271/.330/.453 0.92 15. Ty Wigginton Astros 459 56 19 69 4 .272/.335/.477 2.00 16. Jorge Cantu Marlins 583 67 20 79 4 .269/.326/.454 0.91 17. Melvin Mora Orioles 391 47 12 53 3 .271/.331/.437 0.84 18. Chone Figgins Angels 484 68 4 35 29 .263/.340/.352 0.80 19. Carlos Guillen Tigers 535 72 14 64 9 .271/.349/.426 1.02 20. Andy LaRoche Pirates 330 43 8 37 4 .267/.359/.413 0.99
Part of Lowell’s problem last year was his hip; he’ll be ready in time for spring training, and Fenway has boosted his production since he arrived, so that projection may be a little low. With the increase in playing time and hitting in the middle of that lineup, expect those counting stats to be higher.
Mark Reynolds continues to put up solid lines for the year as a whole, but if you play in a head-to-head league, you’re going to have weeks at a time where you have to bury him on your bench. Consider this ranking to be higher for roto leagues, where these things even out more. Troy Glaus surprised me by rebounding despite moving from a hitter’s to a pitcher’s park, and PECOTA thinks he’s still got something left for 2009.
Adrian Beltre’s contract seems worth it now that it’s almost over, doesn’t it? Funny… the market continued to change and the prices of players less productive than Beltre continued to skyrocket. He’s not going to hit much more than the other options in front of him, but if your league happens to count defense, you’ll be in love.
Ty Wigginton’s forecast is bothersome. PECOTA thinks he’s going to hit, but also shows no confidence whatsoever in that assertion; check out that Beta. It’s the fifth-highest among all hitters, behind just Ryan Budde, Troy Patton, Stephen Holm, and Mike Rabelo. Why do I mention it? Because if you don’t have much faith in Wigginton, then you can skip to the next name on the list.
Cantu isn’t a great option at first base, but at third he’s a solid back-of-the-list pick at the position, especially in deep leagues. He should be eligible at both, which is something to remember if you draft a brittle player at first base. Melvin Mora hit .285/.342/.483 last year, and ranked ninth in VORP for third baseman. Given that he’s 37 years old and has been much worse than that in the recent past, I have a hard time believing that he’ll do that well again, and PECOTA agrees.
Let me get this out of the way before someone yells at me for unfairly ranking Chone Figgins: If you need the steals and Figgins is on the board, rank him higher than this on your own lists. If you do not need the steals, then there’s nothing to see here, folks. PECOTA thinks that Figgins’ days as a useful hitter that steals a lot of bases are over, and it even threw up a pretty confident Beta to back up that assertion. If you’ve already picked your third baseman or if you missed out on all of the great ones and need some steals, he has his uses; otherwise, he’s lost some of his luster.
Carlos Guillen is probably a better real-life player than a fantasy one since he moved off of shortstop and over to third. He didn’t log any time at short in 2008, so he’s probably no longer eligible to play there, which severely limits his value. He’s hitting like a middle infielder at the corner; you could easily replace Guillen on the list with someone like Mark DeRosa.
Andy LaRoche has a low forecast, but if you’re at the point in the draft where you’re considering drafting him for his upside, then you may as well. Just don’t expect him to man third base for you out of the gate, especially since PECOTA thinks he’s going to slug like a backup catcher.
Just missing the list this time around: Bill Hall and Matt Gamel may both end up playing at third base for the Brewers. Based on PECOTA (.253/.332/.459 for Hall, .258/.325/.431 for Gamel) neither of the two is going to win you a league on their own, but whichever one ends up with the job will get plate appearances, and they could beat out some of the players at the back end of these rankings. The aforementioned Ian Stewart should be third-base eligible, even if Atkins is at the position full-time. Keep an eye on him in spring training to see if he lands a job elsewhere on the diamond, because you can just use him where you need him if he does. You have to embrace the Coors effect when you can, after all.
In addition to the just missed guys, third base is a position where multiple first basemen also have eligibility. Miguel Cabrera should still be a third baseman for at least one more season in many leagues; he’d rank fourth on this list. Kevin Youkilis is another player with eligibility at both; he’d probably come in around the Zimmerman/Gordon area. Chris Davis qualifies at third base as well, and with his power potential he could slide in ahead of Youkilis’ hypothetical ranking.
Thanks to Ben Lindbergh for data assistance.
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If I\'m San Francisco I\'m attempting to make a trade with Kansas City for Kila Ka\'aihue. They don\'t seem to want to be giving Kila at bats even though he probably should have been up last year.
PECOTA is a big fan too, despite his tender age.
Either way, I\'m really fired up for the season to start, thanks for your columns!
I just added that emphasis. Jones is #2 and A-Rod is #3 because they can\'t both be #2. Nothing against A-Rod, and absolutely nothing to do with the steroid scandal.
Seriously though, I know you are basing this off of PECOTA as well as tweaking where you see fit. I would definitely see fit to tweak ARod higher than Jones. I don\'t care where PECOTA puts Jones, he just dosen\'t belong ahead of ARod in the context of Fantasy Baseball, plain and simple.
By implication, if you are drafting Chipper in the first round, you are passing not only on A-Rod, but people with similar PECOTA projections like Lance Berkman, Mark Teixiera, Miguel Cabrera. A-Rod\'s projected stats are similar to Chase Utley, so should I ignore them both for Chipper?
Note that Chipper has only hit over .340 once in his career (\'08), once over .330 (\'07) and twice over .320 (\'02 and \'06). Granted, all that came recently, but it does not guarantee he will hit .340.
If A-Rod matches his PECOTA forecast, Miguel Cabrera is *definitely* higher than him.
FYI, Alex Rodriguez hasn\'t hit less than 35 home runs or had less than 100 RBI since 1997. He also hasn\'t scored less than 100 runs or hit less than .290 since being a regular. I guess PECOTA either forgot Tex was in the lineup along with a healthier Matsui, or projects his performance to be affected by his steroids confession????
PECOTA\'s basically predicting that Chipper will maintain most of last year\'s career year while A-Rod will fall off the shelf.
If we\'re talking a points league, perhaps Jones comes in as a #2 but only if he hits higher than .330 with about 500 at bats and another 100 walks. In other words, Chipper needs a career year to outperform A-Rod in the categories he has control over AVG/HR/SB. As for the others, I don\'t think the Braves will outproduce the Yankees.
A-Rod might not hit .330, but he can hit .300 and that should be enough to help win the AVG column. Even if he hits .290, usually the league leader in average is around .270-.275 and A-Rod would still help in that category. Batting average, like wins, are unpredictable to an extent and unlike steals, drafting a high average hitter is not a guarantee you win that category. Then, factor in that he has more power than Chipper, more runs scored, more RBI and more SB, and I just can\'t see him being ranked behind Chipper.
Chipper\'s good, just not that good.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3902
Also, this is about as low as I\'ve scene Evan Longoria ranked on any list. Longoria is going to be hitting in the middle of an absolutely loaded lineup, I\'m not sure how it\'s even possible for him not to crack 100 RBIs and improve on last year\'s numbers.
Then finally, is Garrett Atkins a little overrated? His numbers the last few years have gone the wrong direction as he enters his prime. There\'s a good chance he gets traded out of Colorado, where he\'s a much much better hitter. And he no longer has the luxury of Matt Holliday\'s protection. So why is Atkins ranked ahead of Longoria?
I would go Arod, Wright, Longoria, ARam, & Chipper as my top 5. The nod to ARod over Wright could go either way, I just think the Yankee lineup benefits ARod much more than the other Mets help Wright. Unless I\'m mistaken, the Braves are going to be pretty awful this year...and I\'m not sure a 39 yr old Griffey will help a 37 yr old Chipper all that much...
I might prefer ARam over Longoria because the Cubs also have a good lineup and Ramirez projects to a better batting average over Longoria, but Longoria might net a few more SB and ARam has a tendency to be hurt.
I think Atkins is at #6. Granted, he might be aided by Coors and hurt by Holliday going away, but he should have multiposition eligibility and is coming off of a bit of a down year, so he\'d make a good value pick if he lasted until the 5th or 6th round.
I have him in a keeper league and I like him to really improve on his numbers (especially BA).
He left for three days (will return Thursday) to tend to “personal matters†down in the Dominican Republic. DON’T…GIVE…ME…A…FREAKING…HEARTATTACK - I’m high strung as it is! “Personal matter???†That can only have about 50,000 different meanings... Don’t give me “personal matter†as a freaking excuse. About 24 hours later, we found out he left because his wife was having a baby.
http://touts.wordpress.com/2008/07/02/thinkin-cubs/
I wouldn\'t worry anyway. Though he had a relatively cold July (.794 OPS), he had been cold in June (.791) OPS before his trip. His Pre-Allstar and Post-Allstar numbers were similar as well (901 OPS vs 893 OPS, though less home runs and more average post-Allstar break).
A-Rod is no longer one of the most productive players in the game??? What game? He doesn\'t mack on over-the-hill pop stars as well as he used to? I don\'t have the slightest clue what you could possibly mean by that.
Wow. I don\'t even know what to say.