speX ’24: Week 25

Like in previous weeks, I am using a straightforward metric called speX–along with an equal helping of subjective analysis–to assess the pitching performances from the previous week and try to find some possible breakouts (or fades) for the following weeks.

speX (simple pitching estimation Index) is a composite index that mixes and matches the following stats: K-BB%, CSW%, pCRA, Zone%, and O-Swing%. You can check this article if you want to go deeper into it. We are already in the steady phase for the metric; I’m using the values for the performances through Monday, September 16, the innings minimumt is at 65.

I will be doing a review of some of the best and worst starting pitchers according to the value they provided this season … and how speX look at them for 2025.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a disappointment this year but not because of his performance, which was mostly good, but because of the injuries he had to deal with. Barring any setback during the playoffs, I think Yamamoto could be anyone’s SP1 for 2025. You will get the injury-related discount on his ADP, which could cause him to fall way out of where he should land based on value.

A lot of people will lookat Bailey Ober’s higher-than-3.50 ERA and FIP during the off-season and will reconsider picking him during draft season. But you will know better, because he’ll finish with a higher than 75 speX, which you know is good, and you will remember that his numbers where inflated by two terrible starts in which he allowed 17 earned runs in three innings. Granted, there’s no guarantee against dropping the sporadic awful line, but Ober has the material to step up his game an extra level.

While looking at Cristopher Sánchez’s numbers this year, you could easily get lost in the relatively high WHIP of 1.23 and a uninspiring number of strikeouts. Nevertheless, I’d ask you to focus on four rates that make him an outstanding option for any fantasy pitching staff: 57.9%, 21.3%, 8.1% and 5.5%. Those are all career best numbers in GB%, FB%, HR/FB% and Barrel%, respectively. Sanchez has completed his full evolution into someone on the level of Framber Valdez or Logan Webb, which is definitely good: Those two pitchers went off the boards typically as the 16th- and 17th-selected pitchers in 15-team leagues. (Sánchez went 77th.) There will be an impact on his ADP for next season, of course, but I’m willing to bet he will still be more affordable than the other two hurlers and he has a higher ceiling with similar floor.

In my eyes, Dylan Cease is back to being an ace, and speX agrees wholeheartedly. In his first 16 starts he had a 4.14 ERA, a 3.18 FIP, 1.11 WHIP and a 0.75 GB to FB ratio; in his last 16 starts: 2.71 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 1.00 WHIP and a 1.24  GB/FB. He improved all his overall numbers aside from his K-BB%, and that improved GB/FB ratio has been key to a reduced number of earned runs allowed. If he can continue keeping the walk rate close to MLB average of 8.2%, he will be amazing.

Spencer Schwellenbach. Alright, that was hard enough for me to spell so I will only defer to this and, especially, this previous columns on the Braves’ (other) Spencer.

Honorable mentions: Pablo Lopez, Shota Imanaga, Grayson Rodríguez

I don’t usually have a “Do Not Draft” list for as I believe that drafting is too valued-based and almost every one (even you, Patrick Corbin) can be drafted. However, this is my early list of “Don’t Draft Too High” guys that I’m a little concerned about:

• Zac Gallen
• Néstor Cortes
• Tanner Houck
• Corbin Burnes
• Brandon Pfaadt
• Hunter Brown
• Gerrit Cole
• Carlos Rodon
• Luis Castillo

I’ll expand in the reasons on a future article.