The body is barely cold on the 2024 fantasy baseball season, so it’s the perfect time to turn our attention to 2025.
Too soon? That’s what a lot of people say about the Too Early Meatball Draft Champions draft that my friend Rob DiPietro has organized for the past few years. Rob and 14 other members of the fantasy community drafted the first 11 rounds of the first draft-and-hold of the 2025 season on August 21, helping set some early expectations for the 2025 fantasy draft outlook.
How actionable is it? Well, they did a similar draft last year and I, similarly, analyzed it, and even drafting a few months before the end of the regular season they were able to mostly nail the names in the first round, though the order varied.
There were, of course, some things that changed from their draft to the big-money drafts in late March—Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson and C.J. Abrams, among others, were risers, while injuries to Felix Bautista, Sandy Alcantara and more caused them to fall off the draft board altogether—but those early drafters largely had their finger on the pulse of the upcoming fantasy baseball draft season. If nothing else, it was at least a fun thought exercise to get the wheels turning on what the draft landscape might look like a few months from then.
And so, with another too-early draft board to pore over, I thought it would be similarly useful to analyze it for some noteworthy picks or trends again this year. Let’s get right into it.
O Closer, Where Art Thou?
In my writeup of last year’s draft, I noted that early closer was a trend for the group.
That cooled a bit as drafts wore on—there were eight closers drafted within the first four rounds of the 2023 Meatball draft, as opposed to six who finished with an average draft position (ADP) inside the first four rounds of all Draft Champions drafts—but it was indicative of the group’s view of the position coming out of the 2023 season. If this year’s draft is any indication, then, closer prices, especially those of the non-elite relievers, may be more reasonable heading into 2025.
The third and fourth rounds remain the place to get your CL1—in contrast to last year’s draft, this year’s too-early draft actually had 10 closers go in the first four rounds—but the gap between the studs and the second group of closers has widened. Here are the numbers through the first seven rounds of the past two drafts for comparison:
2023—46 pitchers taken, 30 starters, 16 closers
2024—49 pitchers taken, 36 starters, 13 closers
If we’re taking lessons from this draft, I think one would be that this year’s closer ADP may look like last year’s closer ADP but even more extreme, with a clear cliff after the first dozen or so. If you’re a fan of locking up an elite closer (or a pair of them), plan to do it early. Otherwise, hang back and let them come to you.
Catcher Market Crash
For the past couple of years, I’ve been a disciple of the early-catcher strategy.
After a season in which some of the high-dollar catchers disappointed and some of the lower-round catchers popped off—I’m looking at you, Logan O’Hoppe, Tyler Stephenson and Shea Langeliers—I might change my decision-making process in 2025. It seems as though this group of drafters might, too, as only 11 catchers went in the first 11 rounds of this draft after 13 had an ADP of 11th round or higher last year.
Perhaps more interesting were some of the biggest movers. William Contreras, drafted as the third catcher off the board in 2024, was easily the highest-drafted catcher in this early draft, taken at pick 34. That’s 26 picks higher than the second-highest catcher taken, Adley Rutschman, who was picked at 61. O’Hoppe, who had an ADP of 157 last year, and Stephenson, who rose from the ashes after holding a 227 ADP at the end of 2024 drafts, were also among the biggest risers, being taken at picks 67 and 118, respectively.
MLB’s best OPS since July 31
Aaron Judge 1.169
Yonder Alvarez 1.054
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.029
Matt Olson 1.006
Shohei Ohtani .997
William Contreras .995
Bobby Witt Jr. .990— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 24, 2024
On the flipside, Gabriel Moreno, Sean Murphy and Bo Naylor fell out of the top 11 rounds in this year’s draft after frustrating seasons. Moreno’s was largely impacted by injury, so his stock might rebound as his health troubles fade into the past, but Murphy and Naylor will likely remain firmly in the C2 range unless they have huge springs.
I’ll know more about my personal feelings on the position once we get into the previews after the new year, but the emergence of some of those later-round guys may give me pause when hovering over catchers in the early rounds, especially if I’ve already got one in tow.
Youth Movement
Perhaps the biggest area of my game that requires work is simply believing in talent.
As the rising tides in the minors, the college level and even amateur athletics make players increasingly more ready for the bright lights, we see more and more players hit the ground running once they’re promoted. This year, guys like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill all performed at a high level despite being incredibly young for the league. That’s true of the pitching side as well—teammates Paul Skenes and Jared Jones showed extremely well, and guys like Bryan Woo and Spencer Schwellenbach, among others, weren’t far behind.
The early drafters embraced the youth movement, showing no fear of guys like Junior Caminero, Jasson Dominguez, and Tyler Fitzgerald who haven’t shown much at the major-league level to date. Even players like Jones and Schwellenbach have limited track records but were drafted as teams’ third starters, ringing endorsements for the skills they have shown in that short period of time.
If history is any indication, that boldness will pay off. Fortune favors the bold, after all.
Thank you for reading
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