At this point, it is clear that 2010 is not going to be the Brewers’ year. They finally reached the postseason in 2008 after a drought of 26 years, but they exited in the first round and did not return in 2009. The small-market franchise has done a good job of fielding a competitive team without being able to outspend their competition, though Mark Attanasio has proven to be more willing to open his wallet than most other owners receiving revenue-sharing money, but 2010 has seen the Brewers already slide about 10 games out of first place in the National League Central and in the NL wild card race. The young team that the Brewers spent years building through excellent drafts is getting older and the minor-league system is no longer well-stocked, leaving them in a position where they are not quite good enough to compete right now, and not likely to be especially competitive in a few years. This is why I think that the Brewers should make the difficult decision to part ways with Prince Fielder.
It is not going to be a popular move. Brewers fans love their powerful first baseman, and with good reason. Despite having a bit of an off-year, Fielder is still a force in the middle of the lineup who can launch his share of home runs. However, the Brewers are not competitive in 2010 and Fielder is only under team control through 2011. At that point, teams will bid for Fielder’s services via free agency, and it is unlikely that he will return to Milwaukee.
Even if the Brewers do find a way to bring Fielder back, he will not be a bargain and they will have used up enough of their payroll after signing him that they would not be able to afford many other impact players. It costs about $5 million per win to sign a player, and a team of replacement-level players would produce about 40 wins. Thus, to field a team capable of winning 90 games with only a small amount of young cost-controlled talent, those who do not have the six years of major-league service time to make them eligible for free agency, would cost about $200 million. There is only one team in the league that can be competitive without that large supply of cost-controlled talent. Thus, for every non-Yankees team in the league, they need to reach a point where they have enough valuable players with less than six years of service time to be able to afford to fill in the gaps in the roster with free agents in order to field a competitive team. In the Brewers’ case, they simply do not have enough talent on the roster to cross that threshold. Even a few years from now, the mediocre farm system is unlikely to produce enough talent for a team in Milwaukee’s market to buoy itself into contention with a few good free-agent signings.
Prince Fielder is going to provide a lot of value in 2011, as he will probably earn only a couple million dollars more than his current $10.5 million salary in what will be his last year of arbitration eligibility. He will probably add about 4 ½ wins, which will be worth approximately $25 million on the open market. Fielder is still going to provide a lot of wins during the last couple months of 2010, but those wins are not going to provide as much value to a Brewers team playing out the string than they would to a contending team.
As I explained in last year’s article on Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays, wins count the same in the standings at all points in the season, but the win value for a competitive team is very high in the middle of a pennant race. For example, consider how much the Twins and Tigers would have valued Fielder on October 6, 2009 during their one-game playoff to determine the American League Central champion. The extra wins would be worth far more than 1/163 of Fielder’s total season WARP because the game had so much leverage.
Last year, I adjusted some of the numbers Nate Silver used to approximate the fraction of a player’s value that came from increased odds of making the playoffs and the fraction that came simply from adding to the team’s win total. Competitive teams pay about $5 million per win. Thus, following the same methodology as last year, my current estimate is that $1.6 million is just the value of the win itself in drawing fans, while the rest comes from adding about 5-6 percent to the team’s chances of making the playoffs for each win added as teams receive a financial windfall from playing in the postseason. Of course, not every team is going to make the playoffs but the majority of free agent money is spent by teams who are planning on making a run at the postseason. The teams that are not making a run at the playoffs are likely to be outbid, because they have a lower value for the player.
However, with 99 games played (a good estimate of the number of games played in a season by the July 31 trade deadline), an extra win can increase a team’s chances of making the playoffs by about 10 percent, which means that even a 4 ½-win player is still worth $14 million even though his full year value is $22.5 million. However, the Brewers would already have paid about $6.4 million of his $10.5 million salary by July 31. Thus, Fielder would still have about 63 percent of his revenue value from the beginning of the season and actually about 83 percent of his overall net value. To the Brewers, however, Fielder is not worth anywhere near this much. For them simply playing out the string in August and September, Fielder is only worth a few million dollars worth of wins added.
In 2011, Fielder may be worth a lot to the Brewers if they can build around him to become competitive, but that seems doubtful. Thus, he would definitely be worth a lot to the teams that would be willing to trade for him now. The result is that Fielder is worth so much less to the Brewers than a contending team for the duration of his contract. Therefore, the Brewers can probably extract some of that excess value from contenders in a trade in the form of prospects that can help them later.
There are plenty of other teams that could use Fielder’s powerful bat at first base or designated hitter for the last couple months. The Yankees have been struggling with the DH spot, and could enhance their run-scoring ability by trading for Fielder. The Angels are a few games behind the Rangers in the American League West, and are playing backup catcher Mike Napoli playing first while Kendry Morales is out for the season with a broken leg. The Halos could move Fielder to the DH spot next year after Hideki Matsui’s contract expires at the end of the season. Rays owner Stuart Sternberg has made statements lately implying that they can add salary, and they could certainly upgrade their DH spot by acquiring Fielder. Todd Helton has been struggling mightily for the Rockies and is now on the disabled list. Fielder is the type of player who could push the Rockies over the top in a pennant race. You have to think the resurgent White Sox are considering ways to upgrade over Mark Kotsay at DH. There are enough teams that could use Fielder that several bidders would likely drive up the prospect price someone would be willing to pay the Brewers.
It is hard to imagine Brewers fans rallying behind the premise. Fielder has been a big part of the franchise's ascension to relevancy, and trading him would be a pretty clear admission that they are likely to be irrelevant for the next couple of years. However, the Brewers are not a good team right now, and there isn't much help on the horizon. Thus, the smart thing for them and others in such a situation to do is admit that losing five more games a year for a couple of seasons is worth winning five more games a year in a couple of seasons after that. If the Brewers wait until this season is over or until the 2011 trade deadline, they likely won't get half of the return they would get for trading Fielder now as the acquiring team would have his services for 1 1/3 seasons. Trading Fielder is likely to keep the casual fans away from the ballpark in September, but it would give the Brewers a better chance of having them show up in droves for a playoff run in a few years.
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I also remember Keith Law mentioning something about a "playoff hangover" where attendance remains high the year after a playoff appearance. I'm wondering if there is still a hangover even two years later.
Fielder's body type certainly isn't one that suggests rapid decline, but I think that would probably be priced into his contract at this point. Most teams with money are somewhat afraid of this, at least most teams without huge 1Bs.
You posit otherwise, give reasons why it ought to be so, but then offer no empirical followup. What have in-season trades of Fielder-like players returned in the past?
Short of you showing me something, the Brewers ought to take a final shot with Fielder next year, then take the draft choices.
Makes the most sense.
Um.. wouldn't the Red Sox be a second team?
On to other things, the Brewers have enough fixed parts that if they trade Fielder for prospects, they might as well trade off a good chunk of the team and rebuild for 2012/2013. I'm not sure the NL Central is strong enough (or that Fielder's production is replaceable enough) that trading him is wise, unless you break down the whole ship and trade off most of their offensive players. If not, they'll just have to go through the same thing next year and that would upset the fan base even more.
The Brewers probably should trade some other parts too, but players like Braun and Gallardo are locked down long enough that they are still assets in a couple years. Some other players would go, too, though.
Braun and Gallardo form a good core for a good team, which is why I think the Brewers should keep the team (and Fielder) together. They need to work on their run prevention, so perhaps dealing from depth, perhaps Mat Gamel, would be a good idea.
Now if it was the AL East instead of the NL Central, I definitely agree that trading Fielder is a better move... but I think that division is winnable next year with the core of what the Brewers have. If you trade Fielder though, you have to find some way to replace him and he is somewhat of a unique talent.
I'm curious why you think the Brewers are going to be competitive. Look at the Brewers' roster, contracts, and minor league prospects they have now. Sticking with Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, and the other talent they have is not going to make them a competitive team before 2011 in all likelihood (certainly not 2010), and retaining Fielder is going to cost enough money that it would difficult to do so afterwards. They are going to need young talent to get better-- replacing Fielder's uniqueness has a marketing argument, but replacing his wins is something that they should be attempting to do by trade.
To poorly paraphrase what has been written at BP in the past about team marginal wins, a team has to figure out if it is a contender or not. If so, push for those extra few wins to get to the playoffs. If not, rebuild. The Brewers are quite a bit less than .500 this year, but their offense is solid. If, like last year, 91 wins can win the NL Central and if in the last few years, the Brewers have been a .500 team, are the Brewers perhaps a contender next year?
Let's say the Brewers are a .500 or near .500 team. If you replaced Fielder with a decent, but not great first baseman, you'd have to find a number of other positions to upgrade to make up the difference. If the Brewers issues are run prevention, and if the Brewers minor league system is dry, then they'll have to look at the free agent market for pitching. As you have noted in previous articles, free agents that switch teams tend to have less value than those who remain with their current team. So, there's a chance that the Brewers would invest unwisely... perhaps another Suppan gone bad, and perhaps another few million for a bad first baseman (Corey Kotchman?). Hence, with a rare talent like Fielder, I think that the Brewers should keep him if they are contenders.
But I guess that is what it comes down to...if the Brewers are good enough that they could win the NL Central in 2011. I grant that the Brewers are getting older... but they are not old, by any stretch of the imagination. So, there's a possiblity they can rebound next year. There have also been teams that have improved by ten wins even with slight defense and pitching improvements. It is possible. If, however, they are not contenders, tear the whole thing down and start over. If they are, stick with the current core.
Overall, I agree with you that Fielder's trade value is highest now. The question is, whether the Brewers team is good enough to be a contender immediately (this year or next year). The Cardinals are definitely getting older. The Reds have a lot of good things going for them and they have some young pitching. Can the Brewers overtake them both?
Ugh... too bad I'm a Cubs fan though, I've given up on them being competitive this year. And I did read (and enjoy) the No Turnover Standings articles... think I even commented on them :)
Do you think they can get enough major-league ready pitching via trading Fielder and through free agency to make up that ten win gap? In other words, if the Brewers are a .500 team, does that change the kinds of players they trade Fielder for?