Prospectus Hit List: Hit It and Twit It

Brevity has never been my strongest suit at the Hit List, as my poor editors can attest. With a compressed schedule this week due to travel concerns, I decided to try an experimental format while temporarily bringing back the much-missed two-league format (this time with league adjustments): 30 Twitter-length hits, one per team, 140 characters maximum including links, calling upon a host of abbreviations while trying to maintain coherence. Love it or hate it, rest assured that the regular-format list will be back in all of its verbose glory next week.

Rk	Team	Overall W–L	Week W–L	Hit List Factor	Trend	Comment
1	Yankees	74-46	3-3	.621		Dog days here but Sabathia keeps rolling. 15 consec. quality starts most for Yank since Guidry ’78 http://bit.ly/aFqTwT http://bit.ly/bn9fct
2	Rays	74-46	5-1	.618		Hellickson wins again (http://es.pn/by0xhS), Upton raking (.322/.394/.559 in Aug). But “Braysers?” http://bit.ly/bz886k #thegogglesdonothing
3	Twins	70-50	5-0	.601		Twins seize AL Central lead, Thome makes old team pay w/12th walkoff HR of career, ties MLB record http://bit.ly/9PhDls http://es.pn/dmZgge
4	Red Sox	69-52	3-2	.591		Not Again! Papelbon blows big save, Ellsbury breaks ribs, out for yr. (http://bit.ly/92ZVee). Both gone in 2011? http://bit.ly/digjtv
5	Rangers	67-52	2-4	.579		Nelson Cruz hits DL for 3rd time due to hammy, .321 TAv would rank 6th w/enough PA to qualify (http://bit.ly/d49aqp). Vlad tries RF, yikes!
6	Padres	72-47	5-1	.562		Miguel Tejada 13-for-29 spree as 10-1 tear opens 6-game lead in NL West. TK% shot at playoffs. Kevin Towers says hi http://nyti.ms/cPkUTw
7	Braves	71-49	5-1	.561		Chipper to rehab not retire, but 3B unsettled http://bit.ly/aAUiJv. Get Derrek Lee, DL Glaus (.192/.292/.288 since 7/1), plan shift #badidea
8	Blue Jays	63-57	3-3	.560		Another No-Hit Bid: After 4-HR disaster, Shaun Marcum 1-hits A’s, only hit a HR http://bit.ly/bhln5K. Jays ≤ H 9x, 2nd http://bit.ly/bHTsiU
9	White Sox	65-55	1-4	.560		2-7 skid costs 1st place in Central. Still need another big bat, DH slot just .239/.308/.411. Shoulda re-signed Thome http://bit.ly/dDuSiK
10	Athletics	59-60	2-4	.537		No Offense: A’s nearly no-hit twice in 3-game span (Marcum, Slowey), 3 R, 7 H while batting .083/.172/.143. Chris Carter 0-for-19, optioned
11	Reds	69-51	5-0	.534		Homer Bailey returns from DL w/6 scoreless in place of Karate Kid Cueto ( http://es.pn/dxbVpG). Mike Leake to bullpen #can’thave2muchpitching
12	Cardinals	65-53	1-4	.532		Cards flop in wake of last week’s drama but Jake Westbrook 3.32 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 3/3 QS. Plus, Pujols reaches 30-HR mark for 10th straight time
13	Phillies	68-51	4-1	.527		Chase Utley 0-for-5 in accelerated return from thumb surgery (http://bit.ly/a0cdF9). Phils 26-17 without him but just .262/.327/.407
14	Giants	67-54	1-4	.514		Another Lincecum disaster, and whatever ails him is catching: starters 5.97 ERA, 4 quality starts out of 13 as Giants shed Wild Card lead
15	Rockies	62-57	3-2	.513		12-18 since ASB, odds below 5%. Hawpe (.189/.302/.351 since 6/25) waived, Francis (4.56 ERA, .471 SNWP) DLed. Ubaldo (.642) only SNWP > .500
16	Tigers	58-62	3-3	.504		Max Scherzer shuts down Yanks in Bronx, 2.35 ERA, 9.4 K/9 in 15 GS since AAA detour. A-Jax HR vs ex-tm, .302/.354/.405, .419 BABIP leads MLB
17	Angels	60-61	1-4	.498		16-24 since July 1, Playoff Odds in low-fat milk zone (< 2%). Rough night for Jered Weaver in BOS but leads AL in K (186), 7th in ERA (3.11)
18	Dodgers	61-60	2-4	.489		More Meltdowns: Broxton blows it vs. Phillies. Again. Deposed as closer by Kuo and #dontaskDotel. It doesn’t help. http://es.pn/aVAXEU
19	Marlins	59-60	2-4	.482		Mike Stanton .556/.613/1.185/4 HR in 7 G span. .271/.347/.557 overall, 14 HR since June 8 recall, t-11th in MLB. #cameronmaybinMIA
20	Mets	60-60	3-3	.474		Circus Act: K-Rod slugs father-in-law, tears thumb lig., done for year. Team cedes high moral ground w/2 gm susp., now wants $$$ #soverymets
21	Indians	49-71	1-4	.455		Travis Hafner bops grand slam off Felix Hernandez in 1st game off DL. http://es.pn/9Dy5Jj. He’s Pronking at .290/.390/.476 clip since May 1
22	Royals	51-69	4-1	.452		Killer B’s: 1st pick ’02 flop Bryan Bullington blanks Yanks for 1st W http://bit.ly/cc0EbE. Betemit & Betancourt go deep http://es.pn/anWD0s
23	Mariners	48-73	4-2	.439		Suddenly ancient Mariner Milton Bradley done for year by knee injury after 0-for-3 in hit/field/health (.205/.292/.348) http://bit.ly/b0ldzZ
24	Brewers	57-64	3-2	.436		John Axford‘s mini-meltdown allows Trevor Hoffman to get save 598 http://bit.ly/bdtAZV. Ax 2nd in NL w/6 multi-inning saves, 11th in WXRL
25	Nationals	51-69	2-3	.429		1st pick Bryce Harper signs for $9.9 mil (Stras $15.1). AFL next? http://bit.ly/azQSg6. Ryan Zimmerman .351/.422/.737/6 HR month #hope
26	Cubs	50-71	2-4	.419		Derrek Lee 4 HR/3 G after bereavement leave, sits due to bulging disc, traded to Braves http://bit.ly/bqURkF http://bit.ly/9wzlu8
27	Orioles	42-79	2-4	.405		Adam Jones‘ walkoff bunt beats M’s (http://bit.ly/99i9if). .300/.359/.450 2nd half after .276/.304/.453 1st, with 20/9 K/BB following 76/10
28	Diamondbacks	47-74	1-4	.402		LaRoche, Montero, Reynolds & Drew tie MLB record w/4 straight HR http://bit.ly/bS7Y6S. Snakes 2nd in NL with 138 HR, 6 players w/10+, 2 w/8
29	Astros	52-67	4-2	.398		Shawn Chacon grievance finally settled (http://bit.ly/99HXk5), paving way for others to punch Ed Wade for poor returns in dismantling team
30	Pirates	40-80	1-5	.314		Give the ‘Dorf a Break: Ohlendorf’s 6.2 scoreless vs. HOU wasted, 24th straight time w/<4 runs support. 3.90 ERA, .506 SNWP, 1-10. #rawdeal

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Thursday.

Thank you for reading

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Jay Jaffe

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georgeforeman03

8/19

Not really a fan of this format. :-/

Reply to georgeforeman03

MindRevolution

8/19

My eyes are bleeding. Do like the return of the combined format though.

Reply to MindRevolution

bbonly

8/19

I think you should pass on doing this format in the future. Why settle for twitter's mutilation of the language when you have the space to actually communicate?

Reply to bbonly

jjaffe

8/19

Please see the intro - it was an experiment to accommodate time constraints, not a paradigm shift for how the list will be run going forward.

If nothing else, I'm glad people value the regular format enough to miss it.

Reply to jjaffe

maphal

8/19

Why does Jay have the A's, Blue Jays, and A's ahead of the Reds, Cards, Phillies, and Giants? Maybe I'm missing the format.

Reply to maphal

maphal

8/19

I meant Blue Jays, White Sox, and A's. Sorry.

Reply to maphal

skuddler

8/19

The "Hit List Factor" adjusts for strength of schedule and attempts to remove luck from the equation. The White Sox, A's and especially the Blue Jays play far, far tougher schedules than the Phillies, Giants, and especially the Reds and Cards. Ranking teams in different divisions based purely on their won-lost records is divisional standing is foolish because it doesn't take into account the competition that each team needs to face. Teams hit worse against good pitching teams and pitch worse against good hitting teams. They do better against poor teams. They also lose more games against good teams and win more against poor teams.

Also, I agree with Michael Dennis. I like the combined format, but dislike the how the writing has been flushed down the twitter.

Reply to skuddler

maphal

8/20

Ok, I get that, but suggesting that the 60-60 A's are a better team than the Reds, Cardinals, and Giants would just be foolish. If they played in the NL East or NL Central they would not be making the playoffs. There are some bad teams in the AL West and Central.

Reply to maphal

jdouglass

8/23

I get the Blue Jays. 3 of their 4 division foes, whom they play regularly, are three of the best four teams in baseball. The A's being that high is very suspect to me. The Rangers are the only really good team in the division, the Mariners are dreadful and the Angels are so-so. There's no strength-of-schedule that makes them better than the Reds or the Cardinals, who have weaker schedules to be sure, but are still far better teams.

Reply to jdouglass

grenadewade

8/19

So the Twins receive a downward "trend" after a 5-0 week... do those arrows really even mean anything with regard to team performance?

Reply to grenadewade

yankeehater32

8/19

Yes--it's not just based on record, it also uses expected record. And since I did the math on this week's Hit List with Jay traveling, I'll tell you that the Twins were at the exact break-even point for performance. .001 less in difference would have resulted in a a holding steady trend. It's the same reason the Pirates can trend upward in a week where they win one game.

Reply to yankeehater32

houstonuser

8/19

I understand Jay has a lot of work do to and the Hit List must be drain after a time, but with this Twitter stuff I spend my mental energy trying to figure out what is being said instead of taking in the substance of the content.

I enjoy the Hit List. Maybe a list with more text done every two weeks would make more sense. Then Jay can get to other writings and you still have a reader friendly format. You really don't need it once a week any way. Maybe only once a week in September stretch drive--If that.

Reply to houstonuser

yankeehater32

8/19

As Jay said above in the comments and in the article intro, he is traveling this week, and due to time constraints did a fun experiment to make it work. You will be back to your regularly scheduled Hit List format next week.

Reply to yankeehater32

houstonuser

8/19

Oh boy--It sure did say that. Just shows how people (myself) want to listen themselves more than read what is out in from of them.

Reply to houstonuser

yankeehater32

8/19

Hey, it happens. I see the appeal of running to the rankings.

Reply to yankeehater32

tradewind

8/19

I doubt that it is really less time-consuming to write in Twitter style than to write a shorter yet complete paragraph. All those abbreviations, acronyms and hyperlinks strain my eyes.

Reply to tradewind

jjaffe

8/19

As the guy who wrote it I can tell you that it was MUCH less time - half the time of one of my single-league Hit Lists. Still a challenge to write, just a different kind of one.

Reply to jjaffe

rawagman

8/19

"Jays â‰¤ H 9x, 2nd" - I don't get it.

Reply to rawagman

jjaffe

8/19

That was supposed to be a "less than or equals" sign but it got lost in translation. The Jays have allowed 3 hits or less nine times this year, which ranks 2nd in the majors.

Reply to jjaffe

rawagman

8/19

Ahhh - gotcha - they may have the most starters who are capable of throwing no-hitters one day than anyone - particularly Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero.

Reply to rawagman

jjaffe

8/19

Yup, that's at least 5 taken into the sixth this year by my mental count, plus one more by Cecil. Impressive - I just hope they survive the Curse that's felled so many good young TOR arms (including Marcum once already).

Reply to jjaffe

thecoolerking

8/19

While I do prefer the regular format, if only because I can spend more of my lunch break reading the Hit List, I did think this was a lot of fun. Having said, I did find that the abbreviated links, rather than just using linked text, was a bit distracting.

Reply to thecoolerking

mbodell

8/19

I much, much, much, much prefer combining the leagues together. A hit list with all 30 teams is much better than the separate leagues. However, I - like everyone - prefer the non-twitter text.

Reply to mbodell

mattidell

8/20

I love the experiment. It made me laugh.

Reply to mattidell

jdouglass

8/20

A's? 10th? In MLB? #IDrinkTheKoolAidAsMuchAsTheNextGuyButSorryThat'sNotPossible

Reply to jdouglass

padresprof

8/20

Th: A's > Rays. Cahill >= Ryan. NL = AAAA. Qs? ;)

Reply to padresprof

jdouglass

8/21

yeah. one Q. #They'reInADivisionWithOnlyOneGoodTeamRight?

Reply to jdouglass

maphal

8/23

I questioned the same thing and got booed off the stage. Sarcastically speaking I guess we can just rank all the AL teams and then all the NL teams.

Reply to maphal

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