Continuing the rundown of the most disappointing prospects of all time, here, in no particular order, are the next 10 on my list. Once I’ve run through an infamous 50 I will attempt a ranking. As with the last installment, I’ve mixed in notorious cases with what I hope will be surprises. Again, this is a series that I may not complete in a week; the list of possibilities is large enough to keep us all year, and I’ll want to take a break to make fun of the Mets sooner than later—and other stuff as well, but mostly to make fun of the Mets.
Once again, the goal is not to chronicle the failings of over-drafted players, but to list those players who had established themselves as real prospects, only to fail for one reason or another.
Al Chambers, LF/1B, Mariners
Drafted 1979, first round, first overall
An odd story, one where I suspect we don’t know all the details, the M’s made Chambers, more highly scouted as a football player, the top pick in a strong first round, thinking he had 70 power. Instead, he proved to be a very pedestrian hitter (his PCL record of .303/.352/.499 isn’t great for a corner guy given the league hitting environment). The M’s buried him, giving him only 141 major-league PAs over three seasons.
Clint Hartung, P-OF, Giants
Minor-league purchase, 1945
An early example of prospect hype, Hartung was supposed to be able to both hit and pitch. In short, he was Babe Ruth come again, except skinny, right-handed, and from Texas. The problem was that he had gained this reputation as a 19-year-old in the low minors, but World War II and a stubborn refusal to return to the minors had kept him off of pro diamonds for four years by the time he made his major-league debut. A 24-year-old who hasn’t had significant playing time above the Northern League is far less projectable, no matter how versatile, and the “Hondo Hurricane” was bound to disappoint. He had his moments, particularly in a rookie year in which he went 9-7, pitched a shutout, and batted .309/.330/.543 in 97 PAs, but he never came close to being a star. For more, see my 2009 profile.
Rick Manning, OF, Indians
Drafted 1972, first round, second overall
The Indians completely misjudged Manning, thinking the high school selection had the makings of a power-hitting shortstop. He definitely had a hit tool—he had batted over .600 in his senior year, literally never striking out. The power never came, and he couldn’t play short, though he did become a very good defensive center fielder. Manning spent two seasons in the California League and one and change in the American Association, skipping Double-A. He was called to the bigs after hitting .316/.380/.393 in the first 30 games of the 1975 season. He rewarded the decision, batting .285/.347/.358 as a 20-year-old rookie (.260 True Average), and improved in year two, batting .292/.337/.393 (.274). A severe back injury curtailed his age-22 season, and though Manning would play another 10 years, he hit only .249/.311/.333 from then until the end of his career—and also caused the Indians to trade Dennis Eckersley to the Red Sox, but that’s a story for another time.
Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels
Drafted 2001, first round, 13th overall
Kotchman was supposed to be superbly prepared to compete in the majors due to his father being a longtime minor-league manager. Nothing impresses scouts and horse breeders like bloodlines. The first baseman had trouble staying healthy from the outset, but when he played, he hit quite well; his minor-league rates stand at .324/.406/.494. Power was slow to develop, but when you’re that good at reaching base and play good defense, it doesn’t matter—baseball will take a Keith Hernandez as eagerly as a Frank Thomas. When Kotchman arrived in the majors, the injuries followed him but the bat stayed behind; his 2007 (.296/.372/.467) was his sole memorable campaign. In 2010, he hit .217/.280/.336 in 457 PAs, good for a -1.5 WARP. This spring, Kotchman is competing for a bench role with the Rays, and .324/.406/.494 seems very far away.
Danny Goodwin, C, Angels
Drafted 1975, first round, first overall
The only player to be selected first overall in two different drafts, Goodwin was selected by the White Sox in 1971 but did not sign, choosing to go to college. Four years later, he joined the Angels, an organization not much interested in developing prospects at the time. Goodwin hit quite well, including .305/.403/.520 in 77 games at Triple-A Salt Lake City in 1977. This earned him a midseason promotion to the majors, but he played sparingly and didn’t hit. In 1978, the Angels simultaneously blocked Goodwin by acquiring Brian Downing from the White Sox and busted him back to the Texas League, where he simply rampaged, batting .360 and slugging .637. Called up in August, he hit well but played little. That December, the Angels traded Goodwin and Ron Jackson to the Twins for Disco Dan Ford. The Angels were done with their draftee though he never caught a game for them and had received just 175 PAs over three seasons. The Twins used Goodwin as a part-time first baseman-DH, and whatever promise he had was lost. Goodwin was handled as badly as any top prospect in the history of the game.
Scott Ruffcorn, RHP, White Sox
Drafted 1991, first round, 25th overall
One of the big fish on this list, and the story is very simple: he was crazy good in the minors but not at all good in the majors. There wasn’t a major arm injury or a good reason why; his command simply vanished every time he was invited to pitch in a big-league ballpark. Ruffcorn shot through the minors, getting called up to Chicago in August of 1993 after posting a 2.75 ERA in 180 innings split between Double- and Triple-A, striking out 185 while walking only 60. Back at Nashville in 1994, he more or less did it again, pitching to a 2.72 ERA tune over 165.2 innings. It didn’t matter. Ruffcorn was pasted in the majors, and after 1994 his command began slipping in the minors as well. Still, he finished the minors portion of his career at 68-30 with a 3.29 ERA. His major-league record was 0-8, 8.57 in 30 games, and one wonders what the now-41-year-old, out of baseball for going on 12 years, says to himself about the way he fumbled his chances.
Hensley Meulens, 3B, Yankees
Free Agent, 1985
Now the Giants hitting coach, “Bam-Bam” was once going to be a star in the Big Apple. the right-handed-hitting third baseman had tremendous power at a very young age, hitting approximately .300/.377/.558 with 28 home runs in the Carolina League at age 20, but he had problems making contact and couldn’t field. Despite these flaws, the Yankees pushed him hard and fast, not really noticing that he didn’t hit or field as they pushed him up the ladder. Finally, after a failed major-league audition in 1989, he got back on the prospect track at Triple-A, hitting .285/.376/.510 with 26 home runs as a 23-year-old while primarily playing left field. This was the first positive thing he had done in some time, and it earned him both a recall (successful) and a full season in the majors in 1991 (not). Back in Columbus in 1992, the now-25-year-old hit .275/.352/.481 with 26 home runs, but also struck out 168 times. The Yankees were largely done with him, and he had just 44 major-league plate appearances remaining. He finished his career at .220/.288/.353 in 182 games. For more, see my profile of Meulens from last fall.
Ruben Rivera, OF, Yankees
Free Agent, 1990
As I write these words, Rivera may be gearing up for another season in the Mexican League, where he has been exiled since leaving the White Sox organization, his seventh, back in 2006. Ruben was billed as a five-tool talent, or six-tool if you want to throw in selectivity. Signed out of Panama, he made his stateside debut at 18 and was at Triple-A at 21 after hitting .281/.357/.541 with 33 home runs and 48 steals in 1994 and .284/.390/.553 in 1995. He finished the season at Triple-A Columbus, hitting 15 home runs in 174 at-bats. Supposedly sulking at Triple-A, Rivera was called to a crowded outfield in early 1996 when Tim Raines was hurt. He alternated hot and cold streaks and was sent back down so that Gerald Williams and Ruben Sierra could play left field, one of those wonderful moves that they won’t put on Joe Torre’s Hall of Fame plaque. The following spring, in one of the worst moves in Yankees history, the Yankees sent Rivera, Rafael Medina, and $3 million to the Padres for Homer Bush, a confirmed minor-league outfielder, and the rights to Hideki Irabu. To say that Rivera failed miserably with the Padres would be an understatement; he batted .204/.301/.397 in nearly 400 games. The Reds, Rangers, and Giants gave him major-league tries, as did the Orioles and White Sox, and a return trip to the Yankees ended strangely when he was accused of stealing Derek Jeter’s glove.
Paul Strand, P-CF, Braves
Rule 5 Draft, 1912
Strand was a prospect bust on two separate occasions. A touted lefty pitcher, he joined the Braves in 1913 at age 19, then played a small role on the 1914 “miracle” championship team, going 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA (league average was 2.78), though he didn’t pitch in the World Series. The next season, Strand skragged his arm and was promptly sold off to Toledo of the American Association, his major-league career likely over. When the arm didn’t respond, Strand said, “No, problem! I’ve always been a pretty good hitter, so I’ll become an outfielder!” He turned out to be a good defensive outfielder when his arm felt good enough for him to throw and a very consistent hitter for average. Moving to the Salt Lake City Bees of the Pacific Coast League in the early 1920s, he was able to take advantage of the lengthy PCL schedule to set some huge records, including knocking 325 hits in 1923 (.394 average in 194 games) and making close to 600 putouts in the outfield, also a record. Connie Mack of the A’s figured he could use some of that, and sent three players and cash, possibly as much as $100,000, west in exchange for the now-30-year-old Strand’s services for 1924. Naturally, Strand held out. When he finally signed, Strand strained to justify the deal by hitting .228/.254/.329. In June he made another, final trip to Toledo. He hit .343 in nearly 1,200 games in the PCL and American Association bracketing that final call-up.
Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
Drafted 2007, first round, fifth overall
As we were among the first to hop on the Wieters bandwagon, let us be among the first off of it. The backstop is heading into his age-25 season. Whatever his .343/.438/.576 rates seemed to portend, that’s gone, along with the notion that he’s a switch-hitter (he has hit .230/.278/.344 from the right side) or a power hitter. His glove and the dream of what might have been will keep him around for years, but stardom now seems spectacularly unlikely.
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20 at High A: .322/.458/.606 in 132 games
21 at AA: .273/.377/.515 in 133 games
22 at AAA: .334/.443/.596 in 117 games before a September '83 callup to Atlanta
Career line in the majors? .218/.301/.336 in over 1,000 PAs.
(whaan whaan...)
...
Just can't predict it, Suzyn.
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From Mr. Goldman, in the intro to this article: "Continuing the rundown of the most disappointing prospects of all time, here, in no particular order, are the next 10 on my list. Once I’ve run through an infamous 50 I will attempt a ranking."
Thus, I think, a lot of undue comparisons were made and thus amped up the expectations unfairly on poor Max.
He OPS'd .730 in the second half, compared to .674 in the first in 2010, not exactly All Star numbers (nor even as good as his 2009 numbers), but there was some improvement there, and it was still his first full season in the bigs.
I agree, if Bench is reduced to that average it's a fair comparison, but the thought of Weiters ever peaking the way Bench did, that's crazy talk now.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A01E0D71439F931A25750C0A9649C8B63
Jon Miller's call on the radio:
"Swing and there's a shot, deep into right-center, racing back Dellucci, still going back into death valley, it goes right over his glove! He missed it! But Ruben Rivera missed second base! Now he's heading for third and they're gonna throw him out by plenty, but the throw to third is botched! Now he's heading home! The loose ball in the infield! And he's out by five feet at the plate! And that was the worst baserunning in the history of the game!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ94rkwdTvQ
I was hoping he would move up the ladder and be part of the lineup with Mattingly, but obviously that never happened.
Regarding Rivera's career .204/.301/.397 line.. Nowadays, they'd simply be talking about how 'unluky' he was on BABIP.
The mistake I remember the most is Sam Militello. You've never seen a more glorious minor league record than his over his first three years of professional pitching: ERAs ranged from 1.22 to 2.35 as he moved up four levels to AAA. His strikeout totals always well exceeded his innings and his walk levels were consistently under 3.00. In his 9 start trial with the '92 Yankees he posted a 3.45 ERA. There was a red flag, however, as his walk/9 rate was 4.8. From there, I can't recall a seemingly healthy pitcher turn so abrubtly the wrong way. Nine innings of 6.75 ERA was the balance of his Major League career. Back in Syracuse, his ERA was 5.73 - then much worse in subsequent tries over the next three seasons.
(I suppose this means Militello won't be included in Steve's part III, which is fine as we can here about someone else.)
Which, of course, is why his BBREF bio closes by saying, "However, his promising career was cut short by injuries."
I won't pretend to know what the pre-MLB expectations were for Manning, but they must have been pretty high. To turn in a negative WARP for his career, well, either the majors were teeming with good centerfielders or that's some pretty serious suckitude.
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Even if he never develops more, and is simply an above average catcher, he will be valuable.
And then there is the possibility (likelihood?)that he continues to develop.
We'll see what he does in the future, but he does not belong on this list. The worst we can truthfully say about Wieters thus far is that he was overhyped (by Baseball Prospectus among others), and he has not dominated the league, but in less than 2 full seasons he has established himself as an above average major league catcher.
He tried to remake himself as a pitcher at age 23 and got a shot with the Oneonta Yankees but got hurt and blew his chance. Then he ended up a wanderer who couldn't hold down a regular job, suffering from various mental illnesses, wrongly accused of rape and murder, spending 11 years on death row and was freed just in time to live the last five years of his life, bouncing from place to place, self medicating and eventually dying from liver disease at age 51.
There may not have been as much hype for him as for Weiters or Brien Taylor, but baseball's never seen a bigger bust. (*insert obligatory Morganna the Kissing Bandit Joke here*)
For your consideration: Rick Ankiel, Gregg Jefferies,
Wil Cordero, Willie Greene, Bobby Crosby, Todd Zeile
(yeah, I'm from St. Louis.), Brooks Kieschnick, Sam Horn,
Ben Petrick, Rocco Baldelli, Jeff Francouer, Paul Wilson,
Mark Prior and 70% of the entire top 100 prospect from
2002.
Thanks. That felt good.
In this analysis it seems that pitchers who failed due to injury (Prior and the Mets' trio spring to mind) are distinct from those who just never realize their potential.
I remember vividly the standing ovation that Gordo got on opening day when he came up to face Schilling with the bases loaded and 2 outs in the first inning. Ah...the future in KC was bright. The next coming of George Brett had arrived!
I give you...Jason Varitek, who was an all-universe prospect coming out of Georgia Tech. Taken 14th overall by the Mariners in 1994.
I hadn't seen hype on a college catcher like Wieters since Varitek, also a switch-hitting power guy.
When Varitek was going into his age-25 year, he had floundered at AA for two seasons, and would flounder at AAA in his age-25 year. Played the whole year (except for 1 at bat) at AAA, then got traded to the Red Sox (along with Derek Lowe!) at mid-season for the immortal Heathcliff Slocumb.
(Hey...maybe the Marlins or somebody can trade for Wieters (and Jake Arriata, or something) for say, Jose Ceda.)
Anywho, it's way, way early to close the book on Wieters. Catchers tend to develop later than other position players, in any case.
In additon to the aforementioned Varitek, Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada were similar "busts" at age 25. Based on the "irredeemably perfect" editing of the 2011 BP annual...I find it spectacularly unlikely that Goldman will be running the show at BP three years from now.
Your evaluations of editors might be better; I guess we'll see. I'm well past my age-25 season, so anything BP gets out of me is a bonus. You can talk about your late bloomers, but this is ridiculous.
Try being a Pirates fan who ended up with Bobby Hill and 10 weeks of Jose Hernandez for...what's that guy's name again?
Oh, right, Aramis Ramirez.
I'm strongly in the Wieters-doesn't-belong-here camp, but I don't see point in letting his inclusion spoil the entire article. This isn't a scientifically provable absolute as if much of anything we discuss about baseball is. What this is - is one heck of a fun series.
Aside from Ben Johnson who was from my childhood, the rest of the list burned holes in my fantasy minor league system!!!
And I love Gameday!
I've always been intrigued about a straight up trade of the two - perhaps a change of scenery would do them both good. I still have some hope for Wood, but I always thought the Royals would never make the trade, but the Angels would in a heart beat.
I'd like to hear others thoughts about who you'd take now - Gordon or Wood?
The only thing that's busted with regards to Matt Wieters is PECOTA's prediction that he'd go crazy on the league immediately. That, and other projections from other publications, unfairly make it seem like if Wieters doesn't hit .300/.400/.500 or better he hasn't lived up to expectations.
As other people here have said, Wieters even now is a worthy everyday Catcher, with room for growth, and that should be enough to avoid being labeled a bust. There are plenty of prospects out there who were equally touted and didn't even manage Wieters current level of respectability.
If Wieters is a bust, so are Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford and Jay Bruce, to name a few guys who struggled in their first season or two in a full season at the highest level of baseball.
That was from the BP 2009 annual. I think having the type of minor league resume Wieters possessed plus his skills as a backstop when placed next to his current major league achievements would paint the portrait of a disappointing career thus far.
For some reason I dimly recall a mental issue along the lines of Zach Greinke's. "Baseball injuries" is pretty vague and may have been an assumption based on his playing time. However, I apologize for relying on a dim memory. I certainly could be wrong.
Back in Columbus, he reportedly bitched about the demotion. He definitely didn't hit, and and one point Reggie Jackson was dispatched to talk some sense into him (this might have been before or after this point in his career, I forget.) Late in the season, he hurt his arm making two Bo Jacksonesque throws from the outfield in a 14-1 game. For whatever reason, he never again produced at the plate.
http://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/27/sports/ruben-rivera-s-injury-worse-surgery-likely.html?pagewanted=2&src=pm
In looking this up, I see that he's been DESTROYING the Mexican League, along with some other MLB washouts like Geronimo Gil and Roberto Petaigne...just a reminder of how skilled MLB players are.
And an expensive Boras client to boot.