6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two

There was a kind of grim unanimity that the only prayer the Red Sox have of winning the division depends on Roger Clemens
collapsing, Pedro Martinez having a healthy enough shoulder to pitch 250 innings, Derek Lowe becoming a dominant
starter, Manny Ramirez having healthy hamstrings, Nomar Garciaparra showing no ill effects from his injury,
Trot Nixon hitting lefties, and Tony Clark finally taking the step forward that the Tigers were looking for four
years ago. People are optimistic about Nick Johnson, Derek Jeter, Brandon Lyon, Joe Kennedy,
Dewon Brazelton, and Gabe Gross, some more vociferously than others.

Some yelled-out ideas about what’s going to decide the division:

• "Can I get some more Diet Pepsi over here?"
• "Is there a new iron triangle of front office talent moving between Pittsburgh and Tampa?"
• "Doesn’t a triangle have three points?"
• "Can we talk about the Royals now?"
• "If Toronto can flip two outfielders into two pitchers, they’ve got a chance."
• "The Yankees by 15 games, and that’s with them coasting through September."

One attendee shared by optimism about Danys Baez, so he gets some electrons today: "Baez will be a legitimate Cy
Young candidate immediately. He was successful in Cuba, and his stuff is unhittable when he’s on." "Do you think the
entire Minnesota front office was praying for Rick Reed to choose free agency?" There’s not a lot of optimism about
the bottom tier of the division, but there is a surprising amount of compassion. "We’ll pay for the site if you guys will
provide anti-depressants for Rany."

OK, but Rob Neyer and John Sickels are on their own. Rany could, however, write them the scrip.

Some yelled-out ideas about what’s going to decide the division:

• "David Ortiz‘s health and Torii Hunter‘s glove."
• "Denny Baez."
• "Frank Thomas and Mark Buerhle."
• "Whoever ends up playing right field for Minnesota."
• "Whether or not Terry Ryan can open up the wallet and pick up Shannon Stewart or another outfielder that can
  hit."

• "The Cleveland bullpen can lose it, the Cleveland #4 and #5 starters can win it."
• "A resurgent Kenny Lofton."

Seattle Feed: Mariners 1.26, Athletics 1.91
NorCal Feeds: Athletics 1.30, Mariners 1.91

No one picked Al Gore to win the AL West.

I have a funny feeling that my eight-minute rant on why Ichiro Suzuki is baseball’s most overrated player wouldn’t have
played as well in Seattle, and I’m noted for easy bruising, so it’s probably best that the geographic distribution of BP
staffers is what it is.

Rangers fans made a compelling and excessively persistent case for their club being underrated. "One of the basic things
about analysis is the debunking of the myth that pitching is 75% of the game or whatever. So why won’t Texas win? Against
right-handers, their weakest hitter on the field could be Gabe Kapler, and they could score 1000 runs!" Pizza
Feeders are evenly split on the likely success of Chan Ho Park in Texas. Various flavors of "His splits really
aren’t a big deal, particularly if you break down his starts" were about as common as "He’ll crumble like Texas
starters always do."

The Angels were largely ignored, although one Angel fan offered me $22 cash if I could pull some strings and move them into the
AL Central. We compromised. I took the $22, and the Angels will instead finish fourth in baseball’s toughest division.

The Seattle/Oakland argument seems to turn on three points:

• Defense (Oakland can’t play it)
• Decline (Seattle’s going to suffer across-the-board performance drops)
• Hitting lefties (Oakland can’t)

Some yelled-out ideas about what’s going to decide the division:

• "Seattle’s bullpen."
• "Tom Hicks’s wallet and John Hart’s ability to deplete the Rangers farm system."
• "Eric Chavez, Terrence Long, Jeremy Giambi, Carlos Pena, and David Justice against
  lefties."

• "Cory Lidle collapsing."
• "Allard Baird giving his lunch money to Billy Beane AGAIN."
• "The portrait of Edgar Martinez."
• "Erubiel Durazo! Free Erubiel Durazo! Las vidas de la revolucion!

  That last guy just kept yelling that no matter what was being talked about.

We asked attendees to weigh in on some other issues as well, including the major awards. Here’s the breakdown of their
collective opinions:

NL MVP:

1. Gary Sheffield
2. Sammy Sosa
3. Jeff Bagwell
4. Barry Bonds
5. Chipper Jones

AL MVP:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Jason Giambi
3. Derek Jeter
4t. Magglio Ordonez
4t. Manny Ramirez

NL Cy Young:

1. Randy Johnson
2. Matt Morris
3. Roy Oswalt
4t. Kevin Brown
4t. Kerry Wood

AL Cy Young:

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Mike Mussina
3. Freddy Garcia
4. Barry Zito
5. Tim Hudson

NL Rookie of the Year:

1. Sean Burroughs
2. Josh Beckett
3. Morgan Ensberg
4. Kazuhisa Ishii
5. Mark Prior

AL Rookie of the Year:

1. Carlos Pena
2. Hank Blalock
3. Nick Johnson
4t. Michael Cuddyer
4t. Eric Hinske

Two things: one, the attendees are on crack. If you pick the Rangers to finish third, and you pick Alex Rodriguez to win
the MVP, you’re predicting a sudden wave of enlightenment to wash over the voters, and for them to suddenly realize that it’s
Most Valuable Player, not Most Valuable Player On A Really Successful Team. Second, the Rookie of the Year votes came in well
before it was known that Hank Blalock would be in the majors to start the season, so take the Carlos Pena pick with a
grain of salt. (Like you’re basing your major life decisions on a xeroxed survey.)

And, finally, we asked Pizza Feed Attendees whether or not the 2003 baseball season would start on time:

Yes, the 2003 season will begin on time: 30
No, the 2003 season will not begin on time: 21

Pizza Feed attendees see the glass as about 3/5 full. I can live with that for now.

Gary Huckabay is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.