Thou Dost Protest Too Much, Wieters Apologist
Started off my Independence Day holiday with this in my in box:
You REALLY nailed that Wieters is an all-time bust! Bottom Line is that he is the best fielding catching with no passed balls / best arm /calls a great game. While no one will confuse Matt with Joe Mauer—in terms of hitting, keep in mind his hitting production is about 3rd or 4th best for all catchers in the AL. Russell Martin—now there's a piece of sh*t!—W
Let’s try this one more time: I’m very happy for Wieters’s many defenders that they found a great defensive catcher under their Christmas tree, but that’s not what they were looking for. If it were, the Orioles could have saved their bonus money four years ago and signed Henry Blanco for the major league minimum. This was a first-round draft-pick, rated the best amateur position player in the country at the time of his selection, who hit .343/.438/.576 in the minor leagues. That the Orioles wound up with a potential Gold Glover who is also an average-at-best hitter is the consolation prize, not something to crow about. The man was supposed to be a switch-hitting Yogi Berra and you got Jim Sundberg instead. Congratu-bleepin’-lations.
On the theory that something is better than nothing we’ll score that a win, but let’s face it, W, the player did not live up to advanced billing. Retroactively ratcheting down expectations is dishonest. If you could go back to 2009 and ask people if they would be disappointed if Wieters turned out to be a good fielder with an average-to-below-average bat, you know what they would have said. They would have wept openly and then soiled your shoes.
Regarding Wieters’s lack of passed balls, aren’t you the least bit suspicious of that? Orioles pitchers have had 61 wild pitches with our tarnished golden boy behind the plate, while he has been credited with just five passed balls, none this year. I don’t know if the same Official Scorer who decided in 1990 that Cal Ripken would just NOT make an error short of swallowing the ball is still at work in Baltimore, but this smells like his handiwork.
Just a couple of factual corrections before we leave this behind forever, along with the possibility that Wieters will ever be a star: going by True Average, the lad is not third- or fourth-best among American League catchers, but tenth, and let’s face it, in the group of catchers the AL has going this year, even fourth would be a sorry thing to brag on.
Russell Martin ranks ahead of Wieters thanks to his great April (.293/.376/.587, a bout of hitting that the Yankees will be paying for all year long—Martin has hit an incredible .184/.301/.291 since then, not including last night’s 0-for-3). He isn’t a starting catcher anymore, but among his souvenirs are three offensive seasons (2006-2008) that Wieters has yet to equal, not to mention his own Gold Glove citation. Wieters may ultimately prove to have a longer and better career than Martin’s, but it hasn’t happened yet, so please show Mr. Martin the appropriate respect.
I assume that Sundberg isn’t well-remembered today, but right now he seems like a good comp for Wieters. At one time the career leader in games caught, “Sunny” was a six-time Gold Glove-winner and three-time All-Star who hit .274/.351/.379 over a six-year peak that lasted from 1977 to 1982. That doesn’t sound like much, but in today’s terms that would work out to be something like .295/.360/.400 with 10 or 12 home runs. Overall, he hit .248/.327/.348, which seems to be about the same ballpark as Wieters’s career-to-date .265/.325/.394 when you adjust for time and place. Sundberg was a good, useful player, and so is Wieters, but neither deserves to be called a star. A star is what Wieters gave signs of being. I accurately labeled him a disappointment, and a disappointment he shall remain.
There Is a Sucker Born Every Minute, But Might as Well Go With the One You Have
Bob Klapisch tweets:
Yankees says Mets have made K-Rod available—“door is wide open”—but are only marginally interested. Prefer to wait on R. Soriano.
Of course the Mets would offer Francisco Rodriguez to the Yankees. If they bit on one overpriced closer—I refer, of course, to the Yankees’ dirty secret, the pitcher Brian Cashman was forced to swallow sideways, Rafael Soriano—they’ll likely bite on another. No doubt the Mariners will be calling to offer them Brandon League for Manny Banuelos next. “Hey, he’s leading the league in savess so he must be good, and Ron Washington thinks he’s an All-Star.”
The Yankees don’t need Francisco Rodriguez, of course. By most measures, their bullpen is among the most effective in baseball, particularly with Joe Girardi having gotten over his April reluctance to use David Robertson—the pitcher pitched infrequently and in low-leverage situations in the season’s first month. Luis Ayala has been shockingly good, Boone Logan has recently turned around his career with a new, almost sidearm approach, and Corey Wade has filled in very nicely—or did until Monday night, when he allowed a two-run home run to Carlos Santana. To that point he had not allowed a run in eight pinstriped innings.
Wade is nothing special and his reversion is to be expected, but he’s also the point: relievers are hard to judge because they work in small samples, and there is little reason to pick one up on name-recognition value alone. Rodriguez has had some terrific seasons in his career, but in two of the last three years, including this one, he hasn’t done much to distinguish himself from the great Reliever Cloud (a product soon to be offered by Baseball Prospectus—up- and download your interchangeable relievers to our servers at no additional cost with the purchase of a subscription, use them in any stadium you want).
When it comes to swapping relievers, it’s not hard to name at least 10 bullpen-dwellers on non-contenders who would be more valuable pickups despite being more obscure. The Cubs have three, the Padres have, well, everybody. If the Orioles want to pick up the phone on Koji Uehara, no one is going to hang up. It would be both penny- and pound-wise to bid on the Nats’ Tyler Clippard before looking at K-Rod.
Unfortunately, like the magpie, some people are just attracted to shiny stuff.
You Know You Like Him Anyway
Reviewing traffic figures over the weekend, I noticed that BP’s most-clicked player card belongs to Eric Hosmer. Way down at #6, we have Chone Figgins, who you readers apparently have anointed as BP’s Schadenfreude Player of the Year. Anyway, since Hosmer is apparently more popular among our readers than Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter, and Jose Bautista, I thought I would give you more of what you like. Here we go: Hosmer! Hosmer! Hosmer!
You’re welcome.
A Final Passing Thought
As good as he has been this year—and at .286/.324/.454 we have him ranking 12th among center fielders—is any team going to be burnt worse than the one that picks up Melky Cabrera at the trading deadline? He’s still impatient and still a switch-hitter who isn’t—his .248/.286/.333 line against southpaws fits right in with his career .250/.318/.347 against them. Still, kudos for him for being the best, um, Melky he can be.
Thank you for reading
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Yes, most Orioles fans hoped he would hit for a much higher average and single-handedly lead the franchise out of the desert to the World Series. Was that unrealistic. Perhaps. But he is making progress, blocking balls and throwing out runners at a fantastic rate. Most O's fans will take that....
Regarding your original blog post, get down off that high horse before you get hurt. You did indeed label him as a bust. If you recall, your introduction described the article as "a list of the Top 50 Busted Prospects, players of whom much was expected but from whom little was received." Or did you forget that?
While you may be right that he is no longer the second coming of Johnny Bench or the "switch hitting Jesus", he isn't a "busted prospect" either.
Step back from the hyperbole....
You are correct about one thing. I did use the word "bust" in the initial entry in the series, which I didn't think I had. I hadn't intended to, because my intention was to do something far more nuanced. In picking the players I carefully held to the distinction that a "bust" was a player who largely failed to perform at all and a "disappointment" was a player whose work gave legitimate support to expectations and then failed to live up to them.
Thank you for reading, writing.
But labeling a 25 year-old as a bust and among the most disappointing baseball prospects of all time -- before he has had an opportunity to prove himself -- does strike many people as mean spirited. And convenient or otherwise, that is what you did.
You have now retreated to the position of asserting that Matt Wieters is only a disappointment. Fine. One can make that argument. One can also reasonably argue the contrary position. But that wasn't the thesis of your original post or your dogged defense of it today.
Finally, it is not necessary to question the honesty of everyone who vigorously disagrees with you. Go back to that nuanced analysis....
You yourself confess what a disappointment Wieters has been by admitting Orioles fans' expectations were unrealistic. Adding "Perhaps" afterwards is dishonest - they WERE unrealistic, because what he was expected to be was a lot different than what he actually is.
Wieters isn't a bust because he's a league-average catcher; but because he was supposed to be so much, much, much more.
I will note, however, that offensively, catchers bloom later than other players. It's far too early to dismiss Wieters' chances of putting up a few very good offensive seasons.
Leadership, this ain't.
I have always been a huge fan of Jim Sundberg. Too bad he got referenced in this exchange. I'm sure he'd look at his World Series ring and laugh.
As for the assertion that Orioles fans have 'nothing to crow about', I would respectfully point to the Jim Sundberg comp that was offered. If Wieters has the sort of career Sundberg had, then he'll be a valuable asset to the Orioles and talk of his being a disappointment will fade.
I will say, though, that the gap between his minor league numbers and his evolution as a player in the bigs is quite startling. At first glance, it doesn't make sense; but perhaps a glance at his BABIP totals from the minors and in the majors tells part of the story. In 2008 and 2009, his BABIP numbers were .375 and .352 at AA and AAA, respectively. Last year, it was .289; and this season, it's at .293. He was a 2.0 WAR player last season, and through 72 games, he's matched that total; in no small part due to his defense. His development, needless to say, bears close watching as it may be premature to write off his offensive ceiling, due to both his position and his steady improvement this season.
"You accurately labeled him a disappointment" - as if this is a factual statement. Dragging Ripken and an official scorer into this? Come on man.
Lets say Wieters has 2 passed balls on the year (keep in mind half his games are away, but whatever). Does that diminish his defense skill? He's still impossible to run on. His defense has been superior this season.
And I really don't understand the graph about Russell Martin. Show him respect? For what reason, because he has pinstripes?
Between this and the GM for a day article, I'd hope you defer to someone else to write O's related content from now on. Perhaps you can do me the honor of an entire article blasting this comment, too.
(My second suggestion: Omar Bobbblehead Day at Camden Yards.)
That said, his bat is mighty slow. I keep thinking that in a year or two it will catch up with his ability. Cause I like watching him catch and he's a legit first rounder in action. He just might have more ability than experience still.
1) In order to be a "bust," by definition, most players drafted after you need to have outperformed you. To date, Wieters has a career WARP of 3.9. Only three players drafted in the first 20 picks of 2007 have achieved a higher WARP than Wieters since the draft. If you want to look at just the college guys in the top 20, Wieters ranks 2nd out of 8, behind only David Price (#1 overall pick). I.e., exactly where you would expect him to be, if not a little higher.
2) Calling anyone a "bust" at age 24 is risky, unless he has already experienced massive failure. But calling someone an all-time bust, when that someone is still in very beginning of what looks like will be a long career...well, that's just desperate page view grubbing.
You're basically projecting your own misguided expectations (that apparently a top 10 draft pick should be an All-Star immediately) onto the rest of world. The original article you wrote was an embarrassment to the site, but not nearly as much as this follow up. I mean, if umpires are conspiring to keep Wieters' passed ball numbers down, who knows what else they are doing to help him along and try to make you look bad? I'm sure you'll think of something by the time you do the next follow up.
Huh? What is the definition of "bust" so that this is true?
More broadly, your point seems to be that if Wieters goes on to a 10 year career as a .260/.320/.400 catcher with good defense, then he can't be called a disappointment.
No, that would be a disappointment. And you're being dishonest in how you're framing it. He's not just a "top 10 draft pick". He was the #1 prospect in the game (Baseball America among others) heading into 2009, having destroyed AA with a line of .365/.460/.625. As a switch-hitting catcher. Everyone was projecting stardom for Wieters, not just PECOTA. Meeting expectations is relative to those expectations.
As an example: If Stephen Strasburg (in an alternate universe where he stays healthy) turned out to be a pitcher who could give a team 180 innings of 4.15 ERA starting pitching for 10 years, would it be fair to call him a disappointment? Maybe even a bust?
I agree that it's too early to use terms of finality about how Wieters will pan out, but while I respect the intellect of 99% of BPers, I don't really get the apparent fury about Steve's opinion. Articles like lists of busts are by their nature partly subjective, and really exist to generate discussion; here's one that succeeded at that. After all, what on earth is affected by this list, besides people's blood pressure? I may disagree with one or two of the choices, but I don't feel any outrage about it. My reaction is hmm, something to think about, maybe so, maybe not - rather than suspecting personal bile.
The determination and doggedness of some to point out his shortcomings and the overblown expectations make it appear that they take delight in championing a position which sounds like they are rooting for his failure. That's a common phenomenon among rival fans and fansites. But, I always regarded BP as above that. The commentary and analysis are presented as relatively objective and above the "food fights" engaged by other fan sites.
To Orioles fans, Matt Wieters seems like a genuinely likeable young man. He appears to work hard on the fundamentals, care about the game and is a leader on the field -- that means alot to a struggling fanbase. It seems unnecessary and offensive to declare a human being one of the greatest failures in the history of the sport based on two seasons of work before he reached age 25. Moreover, apart from his initial salary demands, the expectations were largely the creation of others. It seems unfair to affix such a damning label on him based on the hype generated by others -- fairly or not.
To be sure, many Orioles fans hoped for some holy combination of Brooks and Frank Robinson with a catchers mask. But his failure to live up to that doesn't make him a bust, it makes us fans.
So go ahead, point out his shortcomings. Remind us that the reality is far short of the hype. But for God's sake, remember that the guy just turned 25 and is playing perhaps the most demanding position in the game.
I still think
1) your tone is poorly thought out - remember the vocal minority that's getting to you on this issue may deserve it, but you're posting this for all of us. I would think this would be old hat for all of you at BP, or any internet venture, by now.
2) you should at least acknowledge the possibility that PECOTA, which at one time not so long ago produced the most aggressive predictions of any reputable source, is now under-predicting his future line. Right?
3) you should (as others have said) acknowledge his youth and, you know, the possibility that you will be proven wrong in time. (the term "so far" probably should figure prominently here.
all FWIW, which is not much.
It's fair to call him a bust relative to the hype and expectations, but it's also fair to question the legitimacy of those expectations in the first place. If Wieters hasn't started hitting mo' betta' by 2014, then it probably won't happen.
If Bryce Harper came up as a corner OF and failed to hit it would be a much much bigger deal, because that's all corner OF's really are supposed to do. Anything they offer defensively is biscuits and gravy on the side. As the physical demands of playing catcher are also much greater and have a tendency hamper offensive numbers, Bryce doesn't buttress your argument.