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Aim For The Head: Dropping the Worst Starts

May 3, 2002

One common defense you hear of a pitcher–usually one of the speaker’s favorites–whose season statistics don’t quite measure up
is something like: "Yeah, but if you take away the two starts when he got pounded and the manager left him in, his ERA is
really good!"

There’s some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher’s cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as
Michael Wolverton’s Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher’s value.

Separate from these more sophisticated analyses lies a more fundamental problem: taking away X starts from a single pitcher,
without doing so for every pitcher, will overrate the pitcher in question by giving him a benefit the others do not have. If we
really want to go down this path of eliminating disastrous starts, we should give every starting pitcher the same benefit.

I looked at all pitchers from 2001 who had at least 100 total innings pitched in games started. I arbitrarily selected the three
worst starts as the number we would drop from season totals. Then, I compared the rankings and values from the whole season to
the trimmed season to see who was most affected. Pitchers who started for more than one team have their tenure with each team
measured separately, and are not combined.

I looked at two measures, one of which was simply Run Average (RA, which is Runs Allowed/Innings Pitched * 9). The other is a
simplified version of VORP, or Runs above Replacement Level, which I call Value for this article and define as IP/9* (6.00 –
R/IP*9). Note that RA and Value are not park-adjusted for this comparison, nor are we strictly comparing to a measured (or
modeled) replacement level, but instead using a 6.00 RA as replacement level. My intent was to identify the pitchers who are
helped/hurt the most by excluding three starts, rather than to accurately model the value of the top N-3 starts in a pitcher’s
season.

Top/Bottom 20 Pitchers by Value Lost by Trimming Three Starts:
Full Season
Worst 3 starts removed
Difference between Full and Worst 3 removed

NAME
TEAM
VALUE
RA
IP
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
VALUE
RA
IP
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
IP
R
RA of
removed
VALUE
Season
RA Change
Value
Rank
RA
Rank

Scott Schoeneweis
ANA
14.89
5.35
205.3
78
87
36.67
4.32
196
58
81
9.3
28
27.10
-21.78
1.03
20
6

Jimmy Anderson
PIT
14.56
5.37
206.3
81
88
36.11
4.35
196.7
61
84
9.6
28
26.25
-21.56
1.02
20
4

Chuck Finley
CLE
-2.22
6.17
113.7
107
108
18.11
4.51
109.7
102
91
4
23
51.75
-20.33
1.66
5
17

Matt Morris
STL
58.22
3.58
216.3
12
14
77.56
2.62
206.3
5
7
10
26
23.40
-19.33
0.96
7
7

Brian Anderson
ARI
-7.56
6.55
123.7
118
118
11.56
5.06
110.3
111
106
13.4
28
18.81
-19.11
1.49
7
12

Mike Hampton
COL
-2.67
6.12
203
108
106
16.44
5.23
192.7
104
113
10.3
26
22.72
-19.11
0.89
4
-7

Ryan Rupe
TB
-4.56
6.29
141.7
112
110
14.33
4.99
128
106
105
13.7
28
18.39
-18.89
1.30
6
5

Jamey Wright
MIL
14.78
5.32
194.7
79
86
33.56
4.32
179.3
66
83
15.4
29
16.95
-18.78
1.00
13
3

Bobby J. Jones
SD
-7.00
6.32
195
117
112
11.67
5.44
187
110
118
8
24
27.00
-18.67
0.88
7
-6

Dave Burba
CLE
-16.22
7.06
137.7
122
121
2.33
5.84
131
121
121
6.7
23
30.90
-18.56
1.22
1
0

Willis Roberts
BAL
3.22
5.72
102.3
100
100
21.22
3.89
90.3
94
56
12
26
19.50
-18.00
1.83
6
44

Kevin Tapani
CHC
19.22
4.97
168.3
68
72
36.78
3.91
158.7
57
59
9.6
24
22.50
-17.56
1.06
11
13

Kenny Rogers
TEX
-7.56
6.56
120.7
118
119
10.00
5.19
111
114
112
9.7
24
22.27
-17.56
1.37
4
7

Ryan Dempster
FLA
17.89
5.24
211.3
72
82
35.44
4.42
201.7
64
89
9.6
24
22.50
-17.56
0.82
8
-7

Shawn Chacon
COL
10.67
5.40
160
89
90
28.11
4.30
148.7
74
80
11.3
25
19.91
-17.44
1.10
15
10

Steve Trachsel
NYM
26.78
4.61
173.7
52
50
44.11
3.57
163.7
41
38
10
24
21.60
-17.33
1.04
11
12

Todd Ritchie
PIT
20.22
5.12
207.3
65
80
37.00
4.29
195
56
79
12.3
25
18.29
-16.78
0.83
9
1

Darren Oliver
TEX
-6.33
6.37
154
115
114
10.33
5.32
137
113
116
17
28
14.82
-16.67
1.05
2
-2

Julian Tavarez
CHC
12.67
5.26
154
82
83
29.22
4.22
147.3
73
76
6.7
21
28.21
-16.56
1.04
9
7

Denny Neagle
COL
6.78
5.64
170.7
98
98
23.22
4.66
156.3
89
97
14.4
26
16.25
-16.44
0.98
9
1

…

Rick Reed
NYM
36.78
3.54
134.7
36
13
45.22
2.70
123.3
39
9
11.4
16
12.63
-8.44
0.84
-3
4

John Burkett
ATL
63.22
3.41
219.3
8
11
71.44
2.86
204.7
11
12
14.6
18
11.10
-8.22
0.55
-3
-1

Darryl Kile
STL
68.56
3.29
227.3
6
7
76.78
2.70
209.7
6
10
17.6
20
10.23
-8.22
0.58
0
-3

Freddy Garcia
SEA
71.11
3.32
238.7
3
8
79.11
2.86
226.7
4
13
12
16
12.00
-8.00
0.46
-1
-5

Jeff Suppan
KC
25.56
4.95
218.3
56
69
33.56
4.52
203.3
66
92
15
18
10.80
-8.00
0.43
-10
-23

Randy Johnson
ARI
87.78
2.74
242.7
1
2
95.56
2.17
224.3
1
3
18.4
20
9.78
-7.78
0.58
0
-1

Tom Glavine
ATL
54.22
3.78
219.3
17
22
61.89
3.29
205.3
19
29
14
17
10.93
-7.67
0.49
-2
-7

Curt Schilling
ARI
85.11
3.02
256.7
2
3
92.78
2.52
239.7
2
6
17
19
10.06
-7.67
0.50
0
-3

Josh Towers
BAL
18.78
4.72
131.7
70
57
26.22
3.94
114.3
78
61
17.4
19
9.83
-7.44
0.78
-8
-4

Joe Mays
MIN
68.78
3.35
233.7
5
10
75.56
2.93
221.3
8
17
12.4
15
10.89
-6.78
0.42
-3
-7

David Wells
CHW
12.11
4.92
100.7
84
68
18.56
4.00
83.3
101
66
17.4
18
9.31
-6.44
0.92
-17
2

Adam Eaton
SD
16.78
4.70
116.7
73
56
23.22
3.90
99.3
89
58
17.4
18
9.31
-6.44
0.81
-16
-2

Greg Maddux
ATL
69.33
3.32
233
4
9
75.56
2.84
215.3
8
11
17.7
18
9.15
-6.22
0.48
-4
-2

Terry Adams
LA
24.89
4.36
136.3
58
40
31.00
3.68
120
70
44
16.3
17
9.39
-6.11
0.68
-12
-4

Kevin Brown
LA
35.22
3.23
114.3
38
6
41.22
2.27
99.3
46
4
15
16
9.60
-6.00
0.96
-8
2

Dave Williams
PIT
19.33
4.33
104
67
39
23.78
3.61
89.7
86
41
14.3
14
8.81
-4.44
0.71
-19
-2

Roger Clemens
NYY
52.89
3.84
220.3
18
24
57.00
3.49
204
24
33
16.3
15
8.28
-4.11
0.35
-6
-9

Brian Tollberg
SD
20.22
4.45
117.3
65
45
24.00
3.88
102
84
54
15.3
14
8.24
-3.78
0.57
-19
-9

Pedro Martinez
BOS
44.78
2.54
116.7
26
1
47.33
1.65
98
36
1
18.7
15
7.22
-2.56
0.89
-10
0

Roy Halladay
TOR
33.67
3.06
103
39
4
35.33
2.30
86
65
5
17
13
6.88
-1.67
0.76
-26
-1

Pitchers who completely bombed in three starts are helped most by this method. Scott Schoeneweis got blasted for 28 runs
in 9 1/3 innings in his worst three starts, dropping his season’s value by almost 22 runs. Overall his rank in value would go
from #78 to #58 just by dropping every pitcher’s three worst starts. Jimmy Anderson is similarly affected. There are some
good pitchers on the list, too. Matt Morris jumps into the top ten if we disregard three starts.

Pitchers who are very consistent are penalized by this method, since their worst starts aren’t too far behind their average
starts. Roy Halladay‘s worst three starts were barely below replacement level, and so he gains less than two runs by
removing them. His rank in Value drops 26 points as flakier pitchers pass him. Again there’s a mix of great pitchers (Randy
Johnson, Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux) and mediocre pitchers (David Wells, Jeff Suppan, Dave
Williams, Brian Tollberg) in the list. Consistency, by itself, doesn’t mean quality–you can be consistently good or
consistently bad.

Top/Bottom 20 Pitchers by RA Decline by Trimming Three Starts

Thank you for reading

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Keith Woolner

 

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Full Season
Worst 3 starts removed
Difference between Full and Worst 3 removed

NAME
TEAM
VALUE
RA
IP
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
VALUE
RA
IP
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
IP
R
RA of
removed
VALUE
Season
RA Change
Value
Rank
RA
Rank

Willis Roberts
BAL
3.22
5.72
102.3
100
100
21.22
3.89
90.3
94
56
12
26
19.50
-18.00
1.83
6
44

Chuck Finley
CLE
-2.22
6.17
113.7
107
108
18.11
4.51
109.7
102
91
4
23
51.75
-20.33
1.66
5
17

Brian Anderson
ARI
-7.56
6.55
123.7
118
118
11.56
5.06
110.3
111
106
13.4
28
18.81
-19.11
1.49
7
12

Rob Bell
TEX
-16.78
7.44
105.3
123
123
-0.44
6.05
89.3
122
122
16
27
15.19
-16.33
1.39
1
1

Dan Reichert
KC
-1.89
6.15
109.7
106
107
13.67
4.77
100
108
101
9.7
22
20.41
-15.56
1.38
-2
6

Kenny Rogers
TEX
-7.56
6.56
120.7
118
119
10.00
5.19
111
114
112
9.7
24
22.27
-17.56
1.37
4
7

Ted Lilly
NYY
-4.67
6.40
104
113
115
9.89
5.09
97.3
115
108
6.7
19
25.52
-14.56
1.32
-2
7

Ryan Rupe
TB
-4.56
6.29
141.7
112
110
14.33
4.99
128
106
105
13.7
28
18.39
-18.89
1.30
6
5

Lance Davis
CIN
10.89
5.08
106.3
87
78
24.00
3.82
99
84
50
7.3
18
22.19
-13.11
1.26
3
28

Kip Wells
CHW
-0.22
6.02
104.7
104
104
13.00
4.78
96
109
102
8.7
19
19.66
-13.22
1.24
-5
2

Albie Lopez
TB
-3.89
6.28
124.7
109
109
11.56
5.06
110.3
111
106
14.4
25
15.63
-15.44
1.22
-2
3

Dave Burba
CLE
-16.22
7.06
137.7
122
121
2.33
5.84
131
121
121
6.7
23
30.90
-18.56
1.22
1
0

Rocky Biddle
CHW
-4.22
6.33
113.7
110
113
9.89
5.14
103.3
115
111
10.4
21
18.17
-14.11
1.19
-5
2

Paul Wilson
TB
1.78
5.88
131.7
102
102
17.78
4.69
122.7
103
99
9
22
22.00
-16.00
1.18
-1
3

Steve Parris
TOR
10.44
5.11
105.7
90
79
21.44
3.94
93.7
92
62
12
19
14.25
-11.00
1.17
-2
17

Allen Levrault
MIL
-5.44
6.47
104.3
114
116
7.22
5.31
93.3
118
115
11
20
16.36
-12.67
1.17
-4
1

Jose Lima
DET
9.11
5.27
112.7
94
84
21.67
4.11
103
91
72
9.7
19
17.63
-12.56
1.16
3
12

Pedro Astacio
COL
3.00
5.81
141
101
101
19.44
4.65
129.7
100
96
11.3
24
19.12
-16.44
1.16
1
5

Shawn Chacon
COL
10.67
5.40
160
89
90
28.11
4.30
148.7
74
80
11.3
25
19.91
-17.44
1.10
15
10

Joe Kennedy
TB
15.44
4.82
117.7
76
61
26.33
3.72
104
77
46
13.7
20
13.14
-10.89
1.10
-1
15

…

Eric Milton
MIN
39.33
4.38
218
34
41
50.78
3.79
206.7
31
49
11.3
19
15.13
-11.44
0.59
3
-8

Darryl Kile
STL
68.56
3.29
227.3
6
7
76.78
2.70
209.7
6
10
17.6
20
10.23
-8.22
0.58
0
-3

Livan Hernandez
SF
8.11
5.68
226.7
96
99
21.44
5.10
213.7
92
110
13
22
15.23
-13.33
0.58
4
-11