Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
American League
MVP
- Jose Bautista, 19,183 (14)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, 19, 140 (6)
- Curtis Granderson, 8, 42
- Justin Verlander, 6, 30
- Miguel Cabrera, 4, 22
- Ian Kinsler, 1, 7
Cy Young
- Justin Verlander, 19, 93 (18)
- CC Sabathia, 19, 44 (1)
- Jered Weaver, 13, 25
- James Shields, 3, 5
- Dan Haren, 1, 1
- Felix Hernandez, 1, 1
- David Price, 1, 1
- C.J. Wilson, 1, 1
Rookie of the Year
- Michael Pineda, 16, 74 (13)
- Jeremy Hellickson, 8, 24 (3)
- Dustin Ackley, 10, 20
- Jemile Weeks, 4, 16 (2)
- Eric Hosmer, 6, 10
- Ivan Nova, 6, 8
- Mark Trumbo, 2, 6 (1)
- Desmond Jennings, 3, 5
- Brett Lawrie, 2, 4
Manager of the Year
- Joe Maddon, 15, 65 (11)
- Manny Acta, 10, 30 (3)
- Joe Girardi, 9, 23 (2)
- Jim Leyland, 9, 23
- Terry Francona, 2, 6 (1)
- Mike Scioscia, 2, 2
- Ron Washington, 2, 2
- John Farrell, 1, 1
- Ned Yost, 1, 1
National League
MVP
- Matt Kemp, 19, 177 (18)
- Ryan Braun, 19, 136 (1)
- Joey Votto, 9, 45
- Justin Upton, 5, 25
- Jose Reyes, 2, 10
- Roy Halladay, 1, 5
- Clayton Kershaw, 1, 5
- Albert Pujols, 1, 5
Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw, 19, 71 (11)
- Roy Halladay, 19, 65 (7)
- Cliff Lee, 18, 34 (1)
- Madison Bumgarner, 1, 1
Rookie of the Year
- Craig Kimbrel, 16, 56 (9)
- Brandon Beachy, 11, 35 (3)
- Wilson Ramos, 10, 24 (2)
- Josh Collmenter, 5, 23 (4)
- Danny Espinosa, 10, 22 (1)
- Freddie Freeman, 3, 7
- Cory Luebke, 1, 3
- Kenley Jansen, 1, 1
Manager of the Year
- Kirk Gibson, 15, 65 (11)
- Ron Roenicke, 15, 47 (4)
- Charlie Manuel, 9, 21 (1)
- Terry Collins, 3, 5
- Tony La Russa, 3, 5
- Don Mattingly, 1, 5 (1)
- Davey Johnson, 2, 2
- Bud Black, 1, 1
- Bruce Bochy, 1, 1
- Clint Hurdle, 1, 1
- R.J. Anderson
- Bradley Ankrom
- Derek Carty
- Jason Collette
- Jeff Euston
- Ken Funck
- Steve Goldman
- Larry Granillo
- Jay Jaffe
- Ben Lindbergh
- Rob McQuown
- Sam Miller
- Ben Murphy
- Dustin Parkes
- John Perrotto
- Daniel Rathman
- Dan Turkenkopf
- Sam Tydings
- Colin Wyers
R.J. Anderson
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Desmond Jennings |
Joe Girardi |
|
Curtis Granderson |
Jered Weaver |
Ivan Nova |
Jim Leyland |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Josh Collmenter |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Brandon Beachy |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Joey Votto |
Cliff Lee |
Craig Kimbrel |
Charlie Manuel |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Eric Hosmer |
Manny Acta |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
C.J. Wilson |
Desmond Jennings |
Terry Francona |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Craig Kimbrel |
Charlie Manuel |
|
Ryan Braun |
Clayton Kershaw |
Danny Espinosa |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Joey Votto |
Cliff Lee |
Wilson Ramos |
Davey Johnson |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Manny Acta |
|
Jose Bautista |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
Joe Maddon |
|
Curtis Granderson |
Felix Hernandez |
Mark Trumbo |
Joe Girardi |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Cliff Lee |
Brandon Beachy |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Danny Espinosa |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Joey Votto |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Tony La Russa |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Michael Pineda |
Manny Acta |
|
Justin Verlander |
James Shields |
Eric Hosmer |
Mike Scioscia |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Brandon Beachy |
Charlie Manuel |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
Cliff Lee |
Wilson Ramos |
Ron Roenicke |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Eric Hosmer |
Jim Leyland |
|
Curtis Granderson |
David Price |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Ron Washington |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Wilson Ramos |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Justin Upton |
Cliff Lee |
Freddie Freeman |
Tony La Russa |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Jered Weaver |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Jim Leyland |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
James Shields |
Dustin Ackley |
Joe Girardi |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Josh Collmenter |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Joey Votto |
Cliff Lee |
Danny Espinosa |
Charlie Manuel |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jose Bautista |
Jered Weaver |
Jemile Weeks |
Jim Leyland |
|
Justin Verlander |
CC Sabathia |
Ivan Nova |
Joe Girardi |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Brandon Beachy |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Craig Kimbrel |
Tony La Russa |
|
Joey Votto |
Roy Halladay |
Kenley Jansen |
Ron Roenicke |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
Manny Acta |
|
Justin Verlander |
Jered Weaver |
Eric Hosmer |
Joe Girardi |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Freddie Freeman |
Charlie Manuel |
|
Justin Upton |
Cliff Lee |
Wilson Ramos |
Ron Roenicke |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Girardi |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Jered Weaver |
Ivan Nova |
Jim Leyland |
|
Justin Verlander |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
Joe Maddon |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Josh Collmenter |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Brandon Beachy |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Joey Votto |
Cliff Lee |
Craig Kimbrel |
Charlie Manuel |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
No vote |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Jemile Weeks |
No vote |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
Jered Weaver |
Jeremy Hellickson |
No vote |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Danny Espinosa |
No vote |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Brandon Beachy |
No vote |
|
Joey Votto |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
No vote |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Jemile Weeks |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jose Bautista |
Jered Weaver |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Girardi |
|
Curtis Granderson |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
Jim Leyland |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Josh Collmenter |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Danny Espinosa |
Charlie Manuel |
|
Jose Reyes |
Roy Halladay |
Wilson Ramos |
Bruce Bochy |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Manny Acta |
|
Jose Bautista |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
Joe Maddon |
|
Justin Verlander |
Jered Weaver |
Desmond Jennings |
Ron Washington |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Craig Kimbrel |
Don Mattingly |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Wilson Ramos |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Roy Halladay |
Clayton Kershaw |
Danny Espinosa |
Kirk Gibson |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
Jered Weaver |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Jim Leyland |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Dustin Ackley |
John Farrell |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Wilson Ramos |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Charlie Manuel |
|
Joey Votto |
Cliff Lee |
Danny Espinosa |
Bud Black |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Terry Francona |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
James Shields |
Dustin Ackley |
Manny Acta |
|
Curtis Granderson |
CC Sabathia |
Ivan Nova |
Ned Yost |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Brandon Beachy |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Ryan Braun |
Clayton Kershaw |
Wilson Ramos |
Terry Collins |
|
Joey Votto |
Madison Bumgarner |
Craig Kimbrel |
Charlie Manuel |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Mark Trumbo |
Manny Acta |
|
Ian Kinsler |
CC Sabathia |
Michael Pineda |
Jim Leyland |
|
Jose Bautista |
Jered Weaver |
Brett Lawrie |
Mike Scioscia |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Ryan Braun |
Clayton Kershaw |
Craig Kimbrel |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Danny Espinosa |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Justin Upton |
Cliff Lee |
Brandon Beachy |
Clint Hurdle |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
CC Sabathia |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Justin Verlander |
Dustin Ackley |
Jim Leyland |
|
Curtis Granderson |
Dan Haren |
Ivan Nova |
Manny Acta |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Craig Kimbrel |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Brandon Beachy |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Justin Upton |
Clayton Kershaw |
Wilson Ramos |
Terry Collins |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Michael Pineda |
Joe Maddon |
|
Curtis Granderson |
CC Sabathia |
Brett Lawrie |
Joe Girardi |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Jered Weaver |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Manny Acta |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Josh Collmenter |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Ryan Braun |
Cliff Lee |
Cory Luebke |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Justin Upton |
Roy Halladay |
Danny Espinoza |
Davey Johnson |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Jeremy Hellickson |
Joe Girardi |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CC Sabathia |
Eric Hosmer |
Joe Maddon |
|
Curtis Granderson |
Jered Weaver |
Ivan Nova |
Manny Acta |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Roy Halladay |
Craig Kimbrel |
Ron Roenicke |
|
Ryan Braun |
Clayton Kershaw |
Freddie Freeman |
Kirk Gibson |
|
Albert Pujols |
Cliff Lee |
Brandon Beachy |
Terry Collins |
|
American League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Jose Bautista |
Justin Verlander |
Jemile Weeks |
No vote |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Jered Weaver |
Dustin Ackley |
No vote |
|
Justin Verlander |
CC Sabathia |
Eric Hosmer |
No vote |
|
National League |
|||
|
MVP |
Cy Young |
Rookie of the Year |
Manager of the Year |
|
Matt Kemp |
Clayton Kershaw |
Wilson Ramos |
No vote |
|
Ryan Braun |
Roy Halladay |
Brandon Beachy |
No vote |
|
Jose Reyes |
Cliff Lee |
Danny Espinosa |
No vote |
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My quick and dirty calculations...
Sabathia: 17 GS / 118 IP / 132 H / 54 ER / 37 BB / 103 SO / 4.12 ERA / 1.43 WHIP
Verlander: 9 GS / 65.2 IP / 44 H / 18 ER / 17 BB / 65 SO / 2.48 ERA / 0.93 WHIP
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1057014
I completely agree with Bill Johnson's comment. These numbers serve to strengthen the argument for Verlander, not Sabathia. (Not that the argument for Verlander needed strengthening.)
Now, let's use CCs splits on ERA, but give him Verlander's percentage of IP vs. each. His new ERA? 2.46.
Maybe not as cut & dry as we thought?
When you typed out those stat lines, didn't you wince when you noticed that Sabathia has less than twice as many innings, but exactly THREE times the hits and earned runs?
Matusz pitched against tough competition and got clobbered, too. Based on your logic, it seems that he also deserves to be on your ballot.
Sorry to have to be so harsh, but you really should resign from BP and find work more suitable to your talents.
I admit was wrong, I was harsh, and I apologize.
Some people will complain that you can use stats to say anything. Well, tell me why a guy's W-L record or his ERA is a more valid indicator or how well he pitched than another stat. If you want to use the data in an intellectually honest and rigorous way to see which guy pitched better, it's a VERY tight race.
I'd say that you're the one with an indefensible argument. Was Verlander better? Yeah, probably. But the narrative that was attached to each guy grossly overstated the difference.
If that's the way life worked, Dewey would have defeated Truman.
I think the best argument for Sabathia is completely throwing out balls in play and judge them both solely on FIP. Personally, I think that argument goes too far. I do think Verlander generated a lot of weak contact this year, and I do think his skill as a pitcher took a step forward this year.
I agree that the difference between the two probably isn't as great as their ERA's would indicate. But, I do think there is still a sizable enough difference that the choice is clear.
H. Mamis
As a Bautista fan, I'm fine with Ellsbury winning the MVP. I'm not fine with it though if it is because someone sticks him 3rd on their ballot, after Kinsler or someone like that.
My personal criterion -- I make no statement that it is "right," and certainly not that it is uniquely so -- is: based on what we know from studying (advanced) statistics, plus the usual bloviation about character, etc., could this guy have been replaced by anyone else in baseball, and have his team do better as a result? If not, he's a candidate for a top MVP vote. Bautista surely belongs in the discussion on that count. However, replace Verlander or Ellsbury with anyone else at their positions, and equally surely, their teams do _worse_. Swap Bautista for, say, Curtis Granderson, and Toronto is still a 4th-place team. I would therefore,like apbadogs, devalue Bautista somewhat in my voting -- without asserting that my position, or anyone else's, is "right."
This is true. And the Yankees are still a 1st-place team. So how does that tell you anything?
Heck, swap Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista for just about any average player at their position, and their teams finish in the exact same place. This says absolutely nothing about value.
***
Which means nobody on a 4th place team should ever be considered for MVP.
***
Which means nobody on a 1st place team should ever be considered for MVP.
Take, by contrast, Albert Pujols away from the 2006 Cardinals, for example, and a World Series winner becomes a second-division team. He should absolutely have been MVP that year. Or Josh Hamilton or Joey Votto last year, although you could make a case that Cincinnati would have been as good if they'd had Pujols at 1B instead of Votto. There have been many, many first-place teams where having their best player replaced by someone else would have struck a serious blow to the team. This year's Yankees happen not to be one of them.
FWIW, my AL MVP ballot would (and, if IBA happens, will) start out with 1. Verlander, 2. Bautista, 3. Ellsbury. The performance gap between Bautista and Ellsbury is too large for the "how much difference did he make" criterion to overcome it. The gap between Verlander and Bautista, IMO, was not, and if Detroit hadn't had Verlander doing what he did, they'd have been screwed. In essence, the criterion is a "tiebreaker" among very high performers. Verlander and Bautista were close enough in value for it to be in play. Bautista and Ellsbury were not.
If that's not the case, then why are you paying to subscribe to a site that clearly goes COMPLETELY against your narrow-minded way of looking at things?
I never understand the you-can't-have-an-mvp-from-the-4th-place-team argument. I somtimes don't understand how you can have an MVP from a first place team. NY's got Cano, Granderson, Teixera, Sabathia, Mo, ARod etc. How is one of them that much more valuable than the other? How is one of them the one that pushed them over the top, when baseball play is so interrelated? you can't get an rbi without someone getting a run scored, etc, etc. Kemp sticks out to me because his second banana is Ethier. Braun and Fielder had each other and a solid Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. Bautista sticks out.
I also don't care that Verlander got lucky or had great d. He got the results he got and they were the best in the league. The luck happened. we're rewarding what happened with these awards, not predicting his ERA for next year. I
I was not wrong.
Kimbrel was not even the best rookie on his own team. Yes, his rate stats were flashier than Beachy's, but Beachy pitched nearly twice as many innings, and I cannot believe that Kimbrel could overcome that gap by having higher-leverage innings.
Kimbrel had an excellent season, one good enough to have won in some years, but not this one.
By my count, there are three rookie starters who did more to help their clubs win (Collmenter, Luebke, Beachy), and another starter who seems to have had comparable value (Worley, whom BP staffers somehow managed to ignore completely).
And on the position player side, Kimbrel was not a clearly better choice than Ramos or Espinosa.
Y'all home some explaining to do.
Kenley Jansen? Really?
Jansen set the major league record for k/9. He whiffed nearly 50% of the batters he faced. Nobody noticed because he did it in the 7th and 8th innings, not the 9th. Not saying he should win, but a 3rd place vote seems totally reasonable.
And I shouldn't be calling out one of the few voters who agreed with my original premise: that Kimbrel was the wrong choice for #1.
For the non Dodgers fans, check it out: http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2011/9/15/kenley-jansens-cutter.html
Unlike the other candidates, there are things about his 2011 season that are truly historic, and if there's one player among this year's NL ROY candidates that I think has a chance to go to multiple All-Star games, it's Kimbrel. Numbers like VORP and WARP are a starting point for me, not the end-point.
I would ask, though: if Kimbrel's stat line were the same, except for having a more pedestrian number of saves (say 25), would your ballot have changed? If so, why?
Of course if we ignore such new-age philosophies which deny cross game connections and include how the O's were guided by Dan, Mr. Johnson took the Rays from 0.02% to more than 50%. What VALUE! Name another player that came close this year? Bautista? A total waste of lumber. Kemp? Lots of pointless homeruns.
I'm starting an internet based write in campaign for MVP for Dan. Yes Dan Johnson for 2011 - the man who made his hit count.
On another note, I agree about Francona. When a manager has "the best team on paper" as they were so often called, and they fall apart so completely, that manager HAS to bear some of the blame.
One of these two guided the team with the 3rd highest payroll to the biggest September collapse in the history of baseball, and he has since been let go by his club. The other manager had a team with nearly $70 million less in payroll and they are hosting a playoff round as I write this. Why the former has more total points than the latter is beyond me.
Shields prevented runs at better than Sabathia, and threw eleven complete games in the process of topping CC by twelve innings pitched in the same number of starts. All while pitching a (slightly) tougher schedule than the big man.
Very similar K/9, BB/9...Sabathia did a better job preventing dingers, Shields allowed less hits. Virtual tie in VORP (Shields with the miniscule edge). You'd think at the very least, they'd be close. But, nope, Shields got smoked.
Perhaps the BABIP/FIP argument is supposed to give Sabathia the edge? If that's the case, I don't know if I buy it...Sabathia allowed 23% line drives, Shields 18.5%. Shields got about 10% pop-ups, CC around 7%. From the data available, it looks like Shields induced weaker contact than Sabathia, so an argument built around BABIP/FIP doesn't wash. Is Shields getting penalized because he allowed less hard contact?
Allow me to conclude my mini-harangue.
James Shields allowed a lower ERA and WHIP in more innings pitched than CC Sabathia while inducing weaker contact, pitching a slightly tougher schedule, and virtually tying in walk rate. He deserves a slight bonus for pitching eleven complete games versus CC's not-close-to-eleven.
CC Sabathia had a better HR rate and slightly better K rate.
That all being said, I do think you could pick any of the top few pitchers in the league and not be wrong. I consider Verlander, Shields, Weaver, and Sabathia to be in such a tight cluster, that I'd be happy with any of them. I just find it rather frustrating it seems to be a three-horse race for the real hardware, with Shields out of the picture...