This week's question comes from J. M., who writes:
Thinking about how much of the Texas payroll goes to A-Rod and how bad they are I was wondering.
Based solely on offense, expected runs created – given the scenario that your total starting lineup team OPS was fixed at a certain number. Would you be better off building a team with a few superstars, balanced off with some truly horrible players or a team of mostly mediocre players?
Would a lineup of five Shawn Greens (.947 OPS) and five Cesar Izturises (.547 OPS) score more than a lineup of 10Carlos Guillens (.757 OPS)?
As a side note, can we do away with the idea that the Rangers have been forced to spend but a pittance on the rest of the team because of the Alex Rodriguez signing? Texas had an opening day payroll in excess of $105 million (3rd highest in baseball). Taking $21 million away that A-Rod was paid this year (thanks tohttp://www.bluemanc.demon.co.uk/baseball/mlbcontracts.htm for the contract detail), that still leaves $84 million Texas spent on other players, which by itself would have been the sixth highest payroll even if A-Rod had played for free. The problem wasn't that they had no money because of Rodriguez, it was how poorly they spent the other $84 million to build the rest of the roster beyond the best player in the game.
But let's now turn to the question you asked — whether "well balanced" teams are more or less effective than "lopsided" teams of the same average production. To investigate the question, I looked at teams from 1961-2000 (strike-shortened years omitted), and looked at each team's OPS and runs scored. To calculate the "spread" (the term I'll use throughout this analysis to refer to the balance of the team's production) around the average OPS, I took the square of the difference between the team's OPS and the player's OPS, and weighted it by the number of plate appearances the player had. I then computed the team's total spread around that.
e.g.
Assume the team has an 800 OPS, and the player has a 950 OPS in 600 PA.
a. (.950-.800) = .150
b. .150^2 = .0225
c. .0225*600 = 13.5 points contributed to the team's spread
Now try it for a player with a 600 OPS in 400 PA.
a. (.600-.800) = -.200
b. (-.200)^2 = .04
c. .04*400 = 16 points contributed to the team's spread
We can see whether having the spread for each team increases the accuracy of our expected runs beyond simple OPS. To do this, I ran a linear regression on total runs, using OPS and spread as inputs. OPS, by far, dominated the regression, as by itself it explains 91% of the variance in scoring among teams. However, spread did barely clear the bar for being a significant factor in predicting scoring as well (for the statistically inclined, a t stat of -2.37, and a p-value of 0.017, or meaning that there's less than a 2% probability of seeing the results if the results were purely random with respect to spread).
To some extent higher spread seems to produce lower scoring totals for the same OPS. The magnitude of the effect at the extremes is about +/- 10 runs, so while there's some effect, you can probably gain as much or more extra accuracy by using a better model of run scoring that OPS alone.
For the curious…
The team with the lowest spread (most balanced lineup) was the 1976 Angels, which featured the following roster:
YEAR TEA LG NAME PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ---- --- -- -------------------- ---------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 1976 CAL AL Remy,Jerry 540 .263 .315 .303 .618 1976 CAL AL Bochte,Bruce 532 .258 .350 .311 .661 1976 CAL AL Chalk,Dave 497 .217 .310 .253 .563 1976 CAL AL Jackson,Ron 447 .227 .291 .344 .635 1976 CAL AL Bonds,Bobby 422 .265 .341 .386 .727 1976 CAL AL Collins,Dave 405 .263 .336 .334 .670 1976 CAL AL Melton,Bill 387 .208 .302 .328 .631 1976 CAL AL Torres,Rusty 300 .205 .300 .356 .656 1976 CAL AL Guerrero,Mario 278 .284 .309 .340 .649 1976 CAL AL Etchebarren,Andy 275 .227 .305 .271 .577 1976 CAL AL Briggs,Dan 262 .214 .256 .294 .550 1976 CAL AL Stanton,Leroy 256 .190 .270 .281 .551 1976 CAL AL Solaita,Tony 249 .270 .369 .437 .807 1976 CAL AL Davis,Tommy 235 .265 .315 .329 .644 1976 CAL AL Humphrey,Terry 214 .245 .308 .311 .620 1976 CAL AL Jones,Bob 181 .211 .276 .355 .632 1976 CAL AL Lahoud,Joe 116 .177 .319 .219 .538 1976 CAL AL Ramirez,Orlando 76 .200 .263 .214 .477 1976 CAL AL Easler,Mike 56 .241 .268 .296 .564 1976 CAL AL Garrett,Adrian 53 .125 .208 .188 .395 1976 CAL AL Herrmann,Ed 53 .174 .283 .370 .653 1976 CAL AL Alvarez,Orlando 42 .167 .167 .333 .500 1976 CAL AL Miley,Mike 42 .184 .262 .237 .499 1976 CAL AL Dade,Paul 12 .111 .333 .111 .444 1976 CAL AL Lopez,Carlos 12 .000 .167 .000 .167 1976 CAL AL Nordbrook,Tim 9 .000 .111 .000 .111 1976 CAL AL Smith,Billy 8 .375 .375 .375 .750 1976 CAL AL Hampton,Ike 2 .000 .000 .000 .000
Every player with 250+ PA had an OPS within 82 points of .645, and only two other players exceed that level dropping the PA threshold to 100 PA.
The widest spread was the 2000 Astros, narrowly edging out the 1961 Yankees, which both had OPS spreads about 9 times higher than the Angels.
YEAR TEA LG NAME PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ---- --- -- -------------------- ---------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 2000 HOU NL Bagwell,Jeff 712 .310 .428 .615 1.044 2000 HOU NL Hidalgo,Richard 635 .314 .397 .636 1.033 2000 HOU NL Alou,Moises 508 .355 .423 .623 1.047 2000 HOU NL Lugo,Julio 461 .283 .347 .431 .778 2000 HOU NL Biggio,Craig 454 .268 .392 .393 .785 2000 HOU NL Berkman,Lance 410 .297 .395 .561 .956 2000 HOU NL Spiers,Bill 405 .301 .388 .392 .779 2000 HOU NL Meluskey,Mitch 396 .300 .404 .487 .891 2000 HOU NL Bogar,Tim 342 .207 .295 .319 .614 2000 HOU NL Cedeno,Roger 302 .282 .384 .398 .782 2000 HOU NL Ward,Daryle 279 .258 .297 .538 .835 2000 HOU NL Truby,Chris 273 .260 .300 .477 .777 2000 HOU NL Caminiti,Ken 251 .303 .422 .582 1.004 2000 HOU NL Eusebio,Tony 247 .280 .364 .459 .823 2000 HOU NL Mieske,Matt 89 .173 .247 .272 .519 2000 HOU NL Barker,Glen 75 .224 .307 .373 .680 2000 HOU NL Elarton,Scott 66 .159 .197 .190 .387 2000 HOU NL Holt,Chris 65 .100 .169 .117 .286 2000 HOU NL Lima,Jose 61 .167 .180 .200 .380 2000 HOU NL Johnson,Russ 47 .178 .213 .178 .391 2000 HOU NL Chavez,Raul 46 .256 .304 .372 .676 2000 HOU NL Reynolds,Shane 42 .225 .262 .325 .587 2000 HOU NL Miller,Wade 40 .100 .100 .125 .225 2000 HOU NL Dotel,Octavio 33 .031 .061 .031 .092 2000 HOU NL McKnight,Tony 13 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Powell,Brian 10 .222 .300 .333 .633 2000 HOU NL Cromer,Tripp 9 .125 .222 .125 .347 2000 HOU NL Slusarski,Joe 9 .111 .111 .111 .222 2000 HOU NL Ginter,Keith 9 .250 .333 .625 .958 2000 HOU NL Charles,Frank 7 .429 .429 .571 1.000 2000 HOU NL Ensberg,Morgan 7 .286 .286 .286 .571 2000 HOU NL Zosky,Eddie 4 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Valdes,Marc 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Bako,Paul 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Wagner,Billy 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Franklin,Wayne 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Maddux,Mike 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Cabrera,Jose 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Gooden,Dwight 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Gross,Kip 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Linebrink,Scott 1 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 2000 HOU NL Green,Jason 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Powell,Jay 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Perez,Yorkis 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2000 HOU NL Henry,Doug 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Six of the top seven players in PA cluster into two groups almost 300 points apart, and the next three after that aren't within 100 points of each other either.
YEAR TEA LG NAME PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ---- --- -- -------------------- ---------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 1961 NYA AL Richardson,Bobby 694 .261 .295 .316 .611 1961 NYA AL Maris,Roger 691 .269 .376 .620 .997 1961 NYA AL Kubek,Tony 645 .276 .307 .395 .702 1961 NYA AL Mantle,Mickey 640 .317 .452 .687 1.138 1961 NYA AL Skowron,Bill 604 .267 .320 .472 .792 1961 NYA AL Boyer,Clete 569 .224 .313 .347 .660 1961 NYA AL Howard,Elston 477 .348 .390 .549 .939 1961 NYA AL Berra,Yogi 432 .271 .333 .466 .799 1961 NYA AL Blanchard,Johnny 274 .305 .383 .613 .996 1961 NYA AL Lopez,Hector 268 .222 .295 .305 .599 1961 NYA AL Cerv,Bob 131 .271 .344 .483 .827 1961 NYA AL Ford,Whitey 108 .177 .269 .188 .456 1961 NYA AL Gardner,Billy 108 .212 .278 .293 .571 1961 NYA AL Stafford,Bill 71 .179 .225 .239 .464 1961 NYA AL Terry,Ralph 67 .227 .239 .258 .496 1961 NYA AL Sheldon,Rollie 58 .125 .155 .125 .280 1961 NYA AL Daley,Bud 46 .133 .152 .156 .308 1961 NYA AL DeMaestri,Joe 41 .146 .146 .146 .293 1961 NYA AL Coates,Jim 37 .029 .081 .029 .110 1961 NYA AL Torgeson,Earl 26 .111 .385 .111 .496 1961 NYA AL Arroyo,Luis 25 .280 .280 .360 .640 1961 NYA AL Johnson,Deron 21 .105 .190 .105 .296 1961 NYA AL Turley,Bob 21 .095 .095 .095 .190 1961 NYA AL Ditmar,Art 19 .053 .053 .053 .105 1961 NYA AL Gonder,Jesse 15 .333 .467 .417 .883 1961 NYA AL Reed,Jack 14 .154 .214 .154 .368 1961 NYA AL Hale,Bob 13 .154 .154 .385 .538 1961 NYA AL Tresh,Tom 8 .250 .250 .250 .500 1961 NYA AL Reniff,Hal 5 .000 .000 .000 .000 1961 NYA AL Clevenger,Tex 4 .250 .250 .500 .750 1961 NYA AL McDevitt,Danny 2 .000 .500 .000 .500 1961 NYA AL Thomas,Lee 2 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1961 NYA AL Downing,Al 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
The 600+ PA players alone tell the story, with OPS marks of 611, 702, 792, 997, and 1138. And the next eight players have about as many PA below 600 OPS as above an 800 OPS (if we give Berra one extra point).
Click here for the exciting conclusion.
Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.
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