Hope springs eternal as spring training approaches—and then something like this happens. The Tigers found out on Tuesday that Victor Martinez tore the ACL in his left knee, and the 33-year-old is likely to require surgery, which would leave him sidelined for all of the 2012 season.
Detroit was viewed as a favorite to repeat atop the American League Central this year, and at first glance, Martinez’s absence seems a crushing blow. Losing the number-five hitter hurts any lineup, particularly when that hitter posted a robust .330/.380/.470 triple slash the previous season. But a closer look reveals that Martinez’s production may not be irreplaceable.
Despite his gaudy batting line, Martinez’s overall contributions in 2011 totaled just 3.1 WARP, because he offers no value on defense. One of V-Mart’s significant credentials, though, is that he is a switch-hitter, able to handle lefties and righties about equally well. That component of his production figures to be the most difficult for general manager Dave Dombrowski to account for.
There are plenty of DH options still available on the free-agent market, and virtually all of them can fit within Dombrowski’s budget. They range from declining veterans like Vladimir Guerrero and ex-Tiger Johnny Damon, to flawed players just looking for a fit, such as Carlos Pena and Jonny Gomes. Outfielder Seth Smith would have been a useful addition, and though he was traded to the Athletics yesterday, rebuilding GM Billy Beane might be willing to flip him for a net gain.
The problem with the majority of those options is they only amount to half of one V-Mart. Pena and Smith mash right-handed pitching; Gomes is dynamite against southpaws; but none of them do both as well as Martinez does. Fortunately, the Tigers already have the other half on their roster: either Ryan Raburn (.270/.340/.507 career line versus lefties) or Delmon Young (.307/.343/.479) would make an effective platoon partner. Hence, Dombrowski should add a left-handed slugger—Pena, Smith, and Hideki Matsui could fit the bill—in the coming weeks.
Martinez’s absence certainly is not ideal, but that’s mostly because it will require the Tigers to commit two spots to the least-important position on the roster. The average American League DH batted .265/.340/.429 last season, and any of the aforementioned timeshare options should produce above that level for Detroit in 2012. This is not “disastrous news” for the Tigers, as Jon Paul Morosi suggested. It’s a bump in the road—but not one that should prevent Detroit from winning its second consecutive division title.
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Brett
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1¶ms=bases%7CRISP%7Cmartivi01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C#RISP1::none
But yes, there will be a huge hole in a critical part of the lineup.
Gotta Love Clutchiness!
The understandable allergy of statistically-oriented observers toward "clutchiness" as a skill often obscures the fact that players do have clutch performances, sometimes over a considerable period of time. It just isn't something they can be counted on to do again.
(pause for audience laughter)
Say what you will about the wisdom of Rayburn at 2B (and I've said plenty) Rayburn and Young can't be mediocre fill in's for VMart when they're already being counted on to be mediocre contributors elsewhere. So in addition to the step down from Vmart to Rayburn or Young, you also have a step down from them to their replacements. Combine this with the fact that Miggy's WAR takes a hit now that there's no good reason to pitch to him. Plus Young's tendency to swing at bad pitches means there's no reason to pitch to him unless Miggy's hitting behind him.
The real problem isn't the injury, the real problem is their lack of interest in improving the weaknesses in their lineup made the loss of one of the true solid hitters that much harder to overcome. Now they have to spend even more money (or prospects) for even less talent just to get back some fraction of what they've lost.
In spite of this, there's really no change, they won the East by 15 games last year, now have a full season Doug Fister and Delmon Young, and no other team in the AL Central did anything to improve. Vmart's loss alone doesn't cost them 15 games. Sure this takes any hope of advancing in the playoffs out back and shoots it in the head, but that dog already wouldn't hunt thanks to offseason complacency
Had the Tigers at the beginning of the free agency period signed Aramis Ramirez, they would have a huge jump in production over what they were settling for with the team mascot at third, and when the unthinkable happens, you put him behind Miggy and the penalty for walking Cabrera is restored. If they had put Jose Reyes at second (or put him at short and put Peralta at second) you have a real leadoff hitter, a huge upgrade over the stiffs at second, and if the unthinkable happens, there's still a penalty for walking Miggy but this time it's in the form of additional men on base instead of another dangerous hitter behind him. Different but equally effective.
Now, all the good options are gone, so they have to settle for a less attractive option that won't work as well, and it'll be just as costly because their desperation removes their negotiation leverage. They'll shrug their shoulders and say "we tried" but we couldn't predict the injury, and the syncophantic Detroit sports media will cover for them, but injuries are a fact of life and shame on the team for putting themselves in a situation where the team doesn't havve the talent to overcome one bad injury.