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DETROIT TIGERS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart |
Signed 1B-L Prince Fielder to a nine-year deal worth $214 million. [1/24]
The biggest signing of 2012 raises many questions.
Where will Fielder play?
The earliest indications are that Fielder will become the Tigers’ first baseman. If that holds true until opening day, then Fielder will become the first player (besides Miguel Cabrera) to start the season at first base since Carlos Guillen in 2008.
Where will Cabrera play?
Cabrera’s future position is not as obvious as Fielder’s future home (either first base or designated hitter). In theory, Cabrera could wind up at the least important defensive position that Fielder does not inhabit, but there is some thought that Cabrera could try his hand at third base. For those keeping score, Cabrera last attended the hot corner in 2008 and last played the majority of his games at third in 2007—his final season in Florida.
Is Fielder over Cabrera at first base the right call?
Neither Fielder nor Cabrera rate is a good defender according to Fielding Runs Above Average. Since 2009, Fielder has accumulated -12 fielding runs, while Cabrera is even worse at -21 runs. If those numbers are to be trusted and projected to continue, then Fielder over Cabrera at first base makes sense. However, shifting a horrible first baseman to an even more rigorous defensive position sounds like a bad idea (unless you enjoy gifs of baseball players making awful defensive plays—then it sounds like a brilliant idea).
What happens when Victor Martinez returns?
Remember, Martinez tore his ACL earlier in the offseason, just a year after signing a four-year deal with the Tigers worth $50 million. With $25 million out of the way following this season, the Tigers could attempt to move Martinez and the other half of the deal, or they could keep him around, in the unlikely scenario that Cabrera plays a palatable third base. In a sense, the Tigers may face a similar situation to the one the Angels are experiencing with Kendrys Morales. Of course, everyone can agree that there are worse predicaments to be in than having too many good hitters.
Does Fielder’s deal include an opt-out?
The answer is no, according to Ken Rosenthal. This is a bit of a surprise, since Scott Boras is Fielder’s representative, and he managed to finagle an opt-out for Rafael Soriano last winter. This could be a pro or a con for the Tigers. If Fielder could opt out, then doing so would indicate he played well enough that Boras feels he can procure an even better deal than whatever remained on his current contract. Alternatively, the Tigers may have saved money without the inclusion of an opt-out. Just look at the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia for proof of how that can be a bad thing for the team.
Why did Detroit guarantee Fielder so much money and so many years? Did they get duped by Boras into bidding against themselves?
To put it simply: that is the cost of business. Every general manager would like to acquire one of the best hitters in the game without paying him like so, but those dream situations rarely present themselves in reality, and that means someone will pay the players. As for the second part, attempting to solve what happened behind closed doors is the most fruitless and difficult process involved in analyzing any transaction. There are reports that other teams, including the dreaded “mystery team”, were pursuing Fielder’s services. Whether those teams made comparable offers is anyone’s guess, though one has to trust that the Tigers did walk away with the highest bid.
How crazy is the money involved?
This, from Prospectus business guru Maury Brown:
To place the Fielder deal in perspective, the nine-year, $214 million contract ranks him behind only A-Rod (twice, 2001-10 at $252 million and 2008-17 at $275 million) and Pujols (10-year,$240 million base salary) in terms of total dollars. For first baseman, Fielder crushes the eight-year, $180 million deal that Mark Teixeira reached in 2009. The average annual value (AAV) on Fielder’s deal ($23.8 million) ranks him behind only the two Rodriguez deals, Cliff Lee’s $24 million AAV (as part of his five-year, $120 million deal that runs 2011-15), and Ryan Howard’s $25 million AAV as part of his five-year, $125 million contract that runs 2012-16.
Having Victor Martinez go down with what is likely a season-ending ACL tear surely played into the deal, as well. According to Jayson Stark, the Tigers will see a significant amount of Martinez’s salary covered by insurance. “Significant” could be as much or little as 50 percent.
The Tigers ranked 10th in the league by “Final Player Payroll” at the end of the 2011 season at $113,230,923.
Don’t the Tigers know that Fielder is fat and nearing the decline phase of his career?
Of course, Detroit knows about Fielder’s weight and his age (he’ll be 28 in May). Detroit is paying Fielder through his age-36 season, meaning decline is an inevitable part of the deal. Whether Fielder’s body type will lead to his skills atrophying earlier than expected is a gamble, but it’s one that could pay off. Fielder would not be the first heavyset player to decline early, but there are plenty of normal-sized players who decline early as well. Relying on his body type and nothing more as proof that he will not age well is having too much confidence in prognosticating abilities based on qualitative attributes.
Yeah, but isn’t this a risky deal?
Absolutely. Almost every nine-year or $200-plus million deal is fraught with the potential to become a liability. This one is no different.
Is Fielder even a good fit for Comerica Park?
There are concerns whenever a player shifts from a hitter’s park to a pitcher’s park. Miller Park helped Fielder’s raw numbers, no doubt, but the new Coors Field it is not. Since 2009, Fielder’s line is .287/.409/.547, with an average season including 39 home runs. True, Fielder’s home numbers are more favorable than his road tallies, but his career road OPS is still 896. No one can question the legitimacy of his hitting tools, either. Fielder may see his raw statistics decline just a bit, but then again, he may have witnessed that even if he stayed in Milwaukee.
Yeah, but how much better is Fielder than Martinez, really?
Keep in mind that Martinez is a converted catcher, albeit one who could (and can) hit the baseball like nobody’s business. Compare Martinez’s line over the last three seasons (.312/.372/.481) to Fielder’s (.287/.409/.547), and you come to realize there is a 37-point differential in on-base percentage and a 66-point gap in slugging percentage. Even docking Fielder points for changing leagues and ballparks is not going to make that OPS gap of 103 points disappear. Fielder is the superior batter by a fair margin.
Is Cabrera-Fielder now the best one-two and the best righty-lefty punch in the majors?
Many would have claimed that Ryan Braun and Fielder formed the best righty-lefty punch prior to Fielder’s signing elsewhere, and it does appear that Fielder and Cabrera have a legitimate claim to being known as the best tag-team in baseball. If you go by adjusted-OPS, the Tigers now boast, at worst, two of the top six hitters in the league since 2009, with Cabrera finishing in second place and Fielder tying Jose Bautista for fifth.
What does the rest of the Tigers’ lineup look like now?
One has to think Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, Ryan Raburn, Jhonny Peralta, Ramon Santiago, and Alex Avila work into the equation in some way or another. The specifics will remain shaky until finding out what position Cabrera will play.
Is there ever a time to doubt Boras’s ability to find an appropriate deal?
Never.
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Plus, moving Cabrera to third has to be worth 1.5 DL stints. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Add in Justin Verlander's almost inevitable return to earth and a dearth of starting pitching behind him and this feels like an awfully unbalanced lot.
* * *
An hour before Fielder was signed Buster Olney was talking about The Tigers signing him to a 1 year deal so he could re-enter the market after 2012 when The Dodgers and Mets would also be suitors.
Why is trading Fielder after the 2012 or 2013 season not an option for The Tigers, especially if they manage to win The World Series in one of those seasons?
Clearly whoever wanted Fielder would've had to commit to 8-10 seasons, so why would a team who wanted him now be unwilling to take on that contract?
I'm not saying the return would be great, but is it really a foregone conclusion that Fielder remains a Tiger when Martinez returns?
Regardless, it makes little sense to sign a player to a 9-year deal hoping to trade him after a season or two. Especially one of the most expensive 9-year deals in history.
Prince Fielder was not a Tiger priority this off season and the team arguably does not even NEED him after 2012. He is essentially a replacement for Martinez that they could not acquire on a one year deal, but needed in order not to waste prime years of Verlander, Cabrera, etc.
Why does it make so little sense to sign him to a long term deal to get him for the season or 2 you actually need him and then trade him? If he's traded after 2012 or 2013 the team will be no different than it was the day before V-Mart's injury, when they were still expected to contend. And by that time the 65th best prospect in baseball could be ready to take over 3B.
I'm not saying this WILL happen, I just want to know why it's so preposterous.
Also, I'm not sure that contract opt-out stuff is always the case? Wasn't Vernon Wells traded with 3 years remaining on his contract? A-Rod with 4?
All I'm asking is why it's not even an option.
Furthermore, you all seem to be in agreement that while the last few years of his contract are bad, it's still somehow a better idea for the Tigers to keep him than free up that money.
If the return isn't good enough (aside from what fans would think) than that would suggest that spending $24.3M on him during his decline is worth more than having that money to spend on other players and getting a few mid-level prospect in return.
Which is it?
I am thus far not convinced that trading Fielder is an utterly impossible outcome.
Not to say that is evidence it is a strategy worth emulating (for either party), but it is a valid point of view.
1. Nobody else would pay 9/$214m or more, or Fielder would not be a Tiger.
2. The best part of this contract is likely to be the beginning of the contract.
It therefore makes little sense for anyone to take on the last seven years of the contract, especially as they would be paying at least as high an AAV, and give up some sort of positive return in terms of prospects. Yeah, something could be done if the Tigers take on a different bad contract, or if they pay some of Fielder's salary, but otherwise, it makes little sense for the team receiving Fielder (especially as Votto will be a free agent at that point).
Nobody is saying that Fielder is totally untradeable (unless he has a no trade clause which is distinctly possible) - just that it's very unlikely the Tigers would get a significant return by doing so.
However, circumstances change. What looks absolute today may not look the same in a couple years. History bears this out.
The number of players/contracts that defy
Largest contract in the history of the game (at the time) was ARod in Texas. At the time of the signing, Texas valued him WAY higher than any other team both in terms of $ and years. Result: traded mid-contract.
I recall a few other cases where the signing seemed way too expensive at the time, and too many years, and yet the circumstances changesd a trade happened mid-contract where a trade was possible: Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado come to mind. Derek Lowe in Atlanta wasn't quite as long, but similar value/cost issues.
Short story: don't rule out the possibility that another team is going to want Fielder (and his contract) 2 years from now even though they weren't the high-bidder this off-season.
The circumstances of the other teams are going to change, and it's impossible to predict exactly how, and all it takes is one team looking to fill a need.
As to being a defense attorney, I don't have the disposition for it.
The Dodger's reported offer of 7 years/$160M shows that the Tigers were not the only team that valued Fielder as a $24M/year player. I think one can argue that the 8th year was given to outbid L.A. and the 9th year was given to soften the blow of having to move to Detroit.
Whether or not teams will still value him as a $24M/year player 2-3 seasons from now remains to be seen.
Last I heard, the Tigers were planning to platoon Raburn with Santiago at secondbase. That leaves the choice between having Cabrera at third and, perhaps, Andy Dirks in left with Delmon Young as the DH or having a platoon of Don Kelly and Brandon Inge at third and Delmon Young in leftfield. The latter could well be just as bad defensively as the former and weaker offensively, so I'm hoping Cabrera can still play a passable third base.
Just don't tell that to Ryan Madson...
This signing looks like a classic example of sacrificing the future to improve the present, and while that approach does have merit sometimes, methinks this goes too far.
Only days after I was complaining about the team essentially standing pat and losing one of their best hitters, they go and get and even better replacement.
Sure for this money I would have rather had Jose Reyes, because then there's no logjam when/if Vmart returns, but that wasn't an option by the time Vmart got hurt. By the time that happened, the choice was inferior retreads like Damon or Pena, or this. Kudos to the team for taking the higher risk/higher reward scenario.
First all fat bigotry aside both men move better than you'd accept big men to move and while Cabrera at third is a scary prospect, it's not doomed to fail (he wasn't much smaller when he did it last time)
As to the logjam, rather than saying when Vmart returns, we need to be saying "if" that ACL is a pretty horrific injury and "missing all of next season" could easily become "all of this season and half of next" or maybe even "career ending" I think it's better to have three guys for two positions than to settle for a one year stopgap, only to find out Vmart can't come back or isn't what he was.
Sure this fix for the 2012 problem will create problems in later years, but they're smaller problems and there's more time to deal wtih them.
Another potential solution? One of these guys can play Left Field when Delmon Young inevitably comes back to earth.
The last 4-5 years of this deal are likely to be pretty crippling to the franchise, but Tigers fans have reason to be excited nonetheless.
Why not have both sharing 1b/DH duties in 2012 which presumably will help both stay fresher than they were in 2011. Cabrera can also try a few games at 3rd and the outfield in preparation for Martinez returning.
A contract like this being a zero-sum game, it is *never* advantageous to grant a player an opt-out if you don't have to. If the opt-out is exercised, you've presumably lost something of value. If it isn't, you haven't gained anything.
During the ALCS the idea was floated that if the Tigers got to the World Series (and lost a DH) that Cabrera would move to third and Vmart would play first in order to get both hitters plus Avila into the lineup (A martinez at catcher and Avila at third plan was nixed because Vmart's knee was balking even then)
If they were willing to roll those dice in the World Series I can't see not doing it in a few regular season games this year as a trial for next year when (hopefully) he has to do it for real.
Someone upthread suggested Vmart at third, perhaps rotating Vmart and Cabrera between Third and DH that year is an option depending how well the knee heals.
As long as Cabrera can be adequate at third, even if he's worst in the league, the resulting upgrade to the lineup from making Inge rather than Vmart the odd man out is going to dwarf any contrubution the team mascot's admittedly impressive definsive skills might be.