When Major League Baseball’s All-Stars convened in Kansas City earlier this week, one notable name was nowhere to be found: Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been an All-Star 14 times, more than any other active player. He leads all active players in career value, according to traditional stats (HR, R, RBI) and advanced stats (WARP) alike. Only a handful of players in history have done as much to help their teams win. But career accomplishments mean only so much. To be considered one of the best players in baseball, you have to continue to play like one. And lately, A-Rod hasn’t looked a lot like an All-Star.
Rodriguez won his third AL MVP award in 2007. Since then, his performance has declined in five straight seasons. Most players can expect to see their numbers take a tumble after an MVP season, but A-Rod’s decline goes beyond routine regression. He’s not coming back down to earth. He’s falling off the face of it.
A-Rod’s Declining Performance and Playing Time, 2008-12
Year | PA | TAv |
2007 | 708 | .349 |
2008 | 594 | .324 |
2009 | 535 | .308 |
2010 | 595 | .297 |
2011 | 428 | .286 |
2012 | 350 | .278 |
Since 2007, Rodriguez has lost an average of 14 points of True Average per season. Not only is he not playing as well, he’s not playing as often: after making more than 700 plate appearances for the sixth time in ’07, he has yet to reach 600 in any season since. That combination of increasing infirmity and faltering offense culminated in a career-low 2.8 WARP in 2011.
There’s nothing unusual about the fact that A-Rod isn’t as dangerous or as durable at 36 as he was at 31. What is unusual is how fast and how far he’s fallen.
When the Yankees re-signed Rodriguez to a 10-year, $275 million deal in December 2007 that would take him through his age-41 season, they knew his play probably wouldn’t be worth an annual salary of $20 million or more toward the end of the contract. Their hope was that he’d be playable for the duration of the deal, do well enough early on to make the total expenditure tolerable, and rewrite the record books along the way. It’s still conceivable that their hope could come true. But to borrow a line from Yogi Berra, it’s getting late early for A-Rod.
The following graph shows the TAv trajectory by year for average players, Hall of Fame-eligible players, Hall of Famers, and “inner-circle” Hall of Famers, along with a best-fit curve for A-Rod based on his performance so far. All five curves have been re-baselined to be equal at age 27, allowing us to compare their trajectories more easily. What’s important isn’t the TAv of each, but the decline in the TAv of each from year to year.
What we see is that the performance of HoF-eligible hitters (those who play for at least 10 seasons) tends to decline more gradually than that of average hitters. But even though A-Rod is a member of that HoF-eligible group, he’s not declining like one. His aging curve places his rate of decline roughly halfway between that of the HoF-eligible players and that of the average ones.
Interestingly, both average Hall of Fame hitters and “inner-circle” Hall of Fame age at roughly the same rate as players who are eligible for the Hall but aren’t inducted. But because those inner-circle Hall members have such high peaks, they tend to remain productive well into their late-30s (and sometimes beyond). The same hasn’t held true for Rodriguez.
Age-36 True Averages of Hitters with at Least 100 WARP Since 1950
Name |
|
.428 |
|
.334 |
|
.324 |
|
.319 |
|
.319 |
|
.306 |
|
.305 |
|
Alex Rodriguez (YTD) |
.278 |
If A-Rod’s offense continues to decline along the path predicted by the curve, it won’t be long before he’s a liability. PECOTA projects his TAv to bounce back to .306 in the second half. Let’s say it does: in that case, he’d finish 2012 with a .290 mark. Even in that relatively rosy scenario, Rodriguez projects to be a significantly below-average hitter for at least the last two years of his contract. And if he can’t continue to play third, his bat will be even less valuable.
A-Rod’s Projected True Averages, Ages 36-41
Year |
||
2012 |
36 |
.290 |
2013 |
37 |
.283 |
2014 |
38 |
.274 |
2015 |
39 |
.265 |
2016 |
40 |
.255 |
2017 |
41 |
.244 |
A-Rod’s health—which may have caused some of his struggles—is an equally serious problem. From 2001-2007, he avoided the disabled list entirely. From 2008-2012, he’s been on the DL four times and had surgeries on his hip and knee. Last winter, Rodriguez traveled to Germany to undergo an experimental Orthokine procedure on his knee and shoulder, and he’s played in all but three of the Yankees’ games this season. But the larger trend is disturbing.
Almost from the start, A-Rod made many more trips to the plate than the average major leaguer his age. But over the past few seasons, the gap has almost disappeared. The average player makes 18 percent fewer annual plate appearances from ages 32-35 than he does from ages 25-29. Rodriguez’s average annual plate appearances over that period declined by 25 percent.
Some might attribute A-Rod’s seemingly accelerated aging to his admitted use of steroids, but any connection is purely speculative. Rodriguez claims to have been clean since 2003. Since then, he has two more MVP awards than he does failed drug tests. It’s impossible to prove that his past PED use is unrelated to his recent performance, but he’s hardly the first player to decline more quickly than expected. Before blaming A-Rod’s history for his present problems, consider that clean-living anti-steroid crusader Dale Murphy, a Hall-of-Fame caliber player in his prime, was essentially finished at age 32. Player aging isn’t completely predictable, and there are no absolutes. We know when most players reach their peaks and start to decline, but not every player follows the typical pattern.
Regardless of the reason for his atypical aging, A-Rod’s recent play has hurt his chances of making history (and the additional $30 million he stands to make in milestone incentives). From 2010-2012, Rodriguez has hit 59 home runs in 1200 at-bats, or roughly one every 20. He remains 120 home runs behind Barry Bonds on the all-time list. Even assuming A-Rod suffers no further performance decline and continues to hit home runs at the same rate he has since 2010—an iffy assumption to make—he’d need over 2450 at-bats to pass Bonds. If he stays healthy, he could make that mark by the time he turns 40. But if he averages 462 at-bats per season, as he did from 2008-11, he won’t get to 2450 until the final weeks of his age-41 season, the last of his current contract. That sounds like the perfect set-up for a storybook ending—an ancient A-Rod limping around the bases and becoming baseball’s home run king just before the book closes on his contract—but it’s more likely to be fiction than fact.
The Yankees are the one team that could afford to give A-Rod his current contract, and they’re the one team that can continue to compete even after it becomes a burden. But they couldn’t have expected it to become a burden so soon.
Dan Turkenkopf and Colin Wyers provided research assistance for this story.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider .
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I haven't watched the Yanks closely enough to say that A-Rod has become more of a dead pull hitter. And his power numbers have declined much more than I expected. However, if everyone's doubles are down, that might not be a sign of A-Rod's declining power as much as a consequence of a lower scoring/tougher offensive environment across the board. In other words, it might say more about the league than about A-Rod.
Checking b-r.com's yearly league totals:
2009 AL: 4131 doubles, 87538 PA (0.0472 2B/PA)
2010 AL: 4016 doubles, 86744 PA (0.0463 2B/PA)
2011 AL: 4005 doubles, 86482 PA (0.0463 2B/PA)
2012 AL: 2043 doubles, 45588 PA (0.0448 2B/PA)
So, at the moment at least, it does seem that doubles are down league wide. It will be interesting to see what the end of year totals look like . . .
ARod's a very good player who became elite because he used then-legal PED's. End of story.
Your second is bullshit, in the technical sense of the term.
All three of them had relatively strong 2009 seasons (after returning from rehab), and then saw precipitous declines in both their production and playing time thereafter. Lowell actually retired after putting up a .238 TAv in 2010, and Utley might not be long for the majors either (.256 TAv in a handful of at-bats since missing the first half). ARod is doing fairly well, by comparison.
Those three are kind of linked in my mind because they're on playoff teams and their injuries happened around the same time. Others who had similar surgery around that time are Alex Gordon, Carlos Delgado, and Brett Myers. Gordon actually improved thereafter, Delgado had a strong last ~100 ABs then retired, and Myers has been kind of stinky since with no discernible trend (granted, his issues are numerous).
So of the 6, the four guys who had the surgery at age 30 or older saw enormous declines in both durability and production and/or retired. It's a teeny tiny sample, but I think it's worth wondering if the effects of this particular surgery makes it less suitable for baseball players, for people past their physical primes (say over age 30), and/or if the particular rehab procedures to get the hip back in baseball shape were/are not sufficiently developed yet.
Maybe Corey Dawkins can shed some light?
One of the biggest things is their age at the time of surgery. Rodriguez was 34 and Lowell was also 34 but Delgado was 37, Alex Gordon was 25, Utley was 30, and Myers was 29.
Lowell was already on the decline in the years prior to surgery, although his standout 2007 seems to be a little bit of an outlier. Delgado was on his way out of baseball anyways and like you said, Myers has many issues. Utley, of course has suffered multiple injuries to his knee and thumb since.
The problem isn't necessarily the surgery so to speak, it's a combination of damage present, how much needed to be done to correct it, age, and overall talent level.
So summing up your questions/points:
1. The surgery itself likely helps baseball players since the alternative (progressively worsening pain/arthritis) prolong their careers even at a lower production level. The decline in production likely would be faster if not treated surgically.
2. The more damage there is going in, the harder it will be for the player to return to his previous level of production. A torn labrum without significant arthritis or bony abnormalities is more likely to return to his previous levels if not improving.
3. Age certainly plays a role in that younger players tend to heal faster and stronger with all injuries.
4. The rehab likely does not factor in production other than getting the players back out on the field.
5. Previous talent levels play a role. HOF level players are more likely to be able to make adjustments to new mechanics while lower level players might not be able to adjust.
Hope this helps.
I have another question. We've heard about "cascade injuries" where altering one's motion to compensate for an injury in one area leads to another injury somewhere else on the body. Both ARod and Utley (as rcrary notes) have had knee problems as well, is there any reason to think that they might be related to the hip injuries/surgeries? (maybe reduced range of motion in the hip causes them to put more stress on the knee when running, or something?)
Theoretically though, the improved motion in the hip should have led to improvements in the knee. If either developed secondary muscular tightness, knee, ankle, back, and lower core injuries could develop.
1. The surgery itself likely helps baseball players prolong their careers, even at a lower production level, since the alternative (progressively worsening pain/arthritis) would lead to a faster decline in production.